Grand National
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1 Albertas Run
2 Chaninbar
3 Deep Purple
4 Follow the Plan
5 French Opera
6 Kalahari King
7 Made in Taipan
8 Mad Max
9 Master Minded
10 Nacarat
11 Poquelin
12 Somersby
13 Tartak
14 Tranquil Sea
15 Voy Por Ustedes
The ones that I like in this are Kalahari King and Master Minded.
I think Kalahari King was given far too much to do in the Ryanair and I'd fancy him to reverse the form with Albertas Run. He ran in this last year but fell early on so don't know how he would have faired. Before Cheltenham I didn't think he had a chance and his run surprised me as it was his best effort for some time.
The other one I like is Master Minded. I know he got beat at a short price in this a few years ago but he was a doubtful stayer then, and he clearly gets the 2m4f now. He would have easily beaten Albertas Run if he had stayed up earlier in the year, and would find it hard to believe that Albertas could turn the form around. Granted, Albertas improves a lot in the spring, but I'd still fancy Master Minded to get the better of him.
I know that Albertas Run has a large following on here, but for I'd look to take him on in this. I wouldn't be a layer, but I'd look elsewhere to back.
Others are:
Somersby - who knows how he would have gotten on in the Ryanair, but this is definitely his trip. Has to have a big chance if discounting his Champion Chase run.
French Opera - admirable horse that will like the good ground, but just short of top class off level weights. Behind Somersby in the Champion Chase and hard to see him reversing it when the trip should be more suited to Somersby this time
Mad Max - career best performance here last year over C&D, but has ran well below that level of form this year and well documented breathing problems
Poquelin - Paul Nicholls confirmed today he is a non runner
Voy Por Ustedes - ran a blinder in the Ryanair, considering how long he has been off the track. Would give him an each way chance at a course he has ran well at before
Tranquil Sea - not sure if he will run, but would be an interesting contender but he would be having his first run in England outside of Cheltenham. Has to be doubts about his fitness, and this would be an after thought
Nacarat - maybe lacks the speed of some of these over 2m4f on a flat track. May run in the Totesport Bowl.
A lot will depend how much Cheltenham has taken out of these, and with Ruby being extremely easy on Master Minded once he made the blunder has to be a factor. Kalahari King has progressively improved as the season has gone on, and fancy him to run a big race.
Thoughts?
2 Chaninbar
3 Deep Purple
4 Follow the Plan
5 French Opera
6 Kalahari King
7 Made in Taipan
8 Mad Max
9 Master Minded
10 Nacarat
11 Poquelin
12 Somersby
13 Tartak
14 Tranquil Sea
15 Voy Por Ustedes
The ones that I like in this are Kalahari King and Master Minded.
I think Kalahari King was given far too much to do in the Ryanair and I'd fancy him to reverse the form with Albertas Run. He ran in this last year but fell early on so don't know how he would have faired. Before Cheltenham I didn't think he had a chance and his run surprised me as it was his best effort for some time.
The other one I like is Master Minded. I know he got beat at a short price in this a few years ago but he was a doubtful stayer then, and he clearly gets the 2m4f now. He would have easily beaten Albertas Run if he had stayed up earlier in the year, and would find it hard to believe that Albertas could turn the form around. Granted, Albertas improves a lot in the spring, but I'd still fancy Master Minded to get the better of him.
I know that Albertas Run has a large following on here, but for I'd look to take him on in this. I wouldn't be a layer, but I'd look elsewhere to back.
Others are:
Somersby - who knows how he would have gotten on in the Ryanair, but this is definitely his trip. Has to have a big chance if discounting his Champion Chase run.
French Opera - admirable horse that will like the good ground, but just short of top class off level weights. Behind Somersby in the Champion Chase and hard to see him reversing it when the trip should be more suited to Somersby this time
Mad Max - career best performance here last year over C&D, but has ran well below that level of form this year and well documented breathing problems
Poquelin - Paul Nicholls confirmed today he is a non runner
Voy Por Ustedes - ran a blinder in the Ryanair, considering how long he has been off the track. Would give him an each way chance at a course he has ran well at before
Tranquil Sea - not sure if he will run, but would be an interesting contender but he would be having his first run in England outside of Cheltenham. Has to be doubts about his fitness, and this would be an after thought
Nacarat - maybe lacks the speed of some of these over 2m4f on a flat track. May run in the Totesport Bowl.
A lot will depend how much Cheltenham has taken out of these, and with Ruby being extremely easy on Master Minded once he made the blunder has to be a factor. Kalahari King has progressively improved as the season has gone on, and fancy him to run a big race.
Thoughts?
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Replies: 30
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very good write up, but got to disagree with KK and Masterminded. Hopefully Tranquil Sea wil turn up, and I make him my bet of the week if he does.
fwiw, don't think the Ryanair form is worth a carrot. |
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I backed Master Minded at 6.2 on here. I haven't lost faith in him, even though he wasn't my CC horse. My concern is that Paul Nicholls said he was a 2 mile horse after VPU beat him the last time he ran in this race at Aintree. That doubt is then possibly balanced up a bit by him supposedly being aimed at the King George. Any bit of rain should help, and i think he's being written off a shade too soon. I certainly wouldn't be laying him at the price i got.
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its gonna be good ground and master minded wont stay.i would love to see him win but head says no
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He does stay nowadays I think. And also last time he was beaten in this race he was far from beaten when he made a horrific mistake 2 out which completely finished him.
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yeah shud stay, did in the amlin at ascot...
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nap alberts run
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Held up in well in touch, joined leaders 11th, upsides when hit 2 out, immediately beaten, eased last 100yds (op 4-11 tchd 4-9 in places)
people seem to forget that and just presume he didnt stay. |
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Master Minded will stay but wont go well enough on the ground imo.
FWIW I think it is dangerous to assume that horses hitting fences late on would have won races but for the mistake..they often make the mistakes because they are cream crackered. At the prices Id be with the other MM..a leap of faith but might be able to breathe round here . |
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My shortlist would be Albertas Run, Kalahari King, Mad Max and Tranquil Sea. Will be very surprised if the winner doesn`t come from these four. Master Minded should be seen to better effect over this trip but his jumping has to be a concern over these stiff fences and i just cant see him puting in a clear round. VPU is another that has the class to win this but there must be a risk that he will bounce here after running well a few weeks back.
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VPU retired again ?
At least the comeback got the horse over the £1m prize money barrier if true. |
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Too many people writing off Master Minded. I had another bet, this time at 6/1 which didn't last long. Many of you are going to have; as the big breakfast theme tune once went, egg on your face, egg on your face.
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Nice write up
Took 6/1 e/w on Master Minded, think he was rushed off his feet in the past 2 Champion Chases and the step up in trip will suite, ground a bit quick for him though. I will prob add Tranquil Sea too. |
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I see no reason to desert AR and see 7/2 as a good price. Couldn't have Masterminded with ground issues and perhaps trip issues too, and the return of the howler at Chelters. I see more of a threat from Somersby or Tranquil Sea as I see KK being dealt with again all things being equal.
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I think this is going to be the first time I have ever backed Somersby...
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dont do it dan, please dont do it. henritta couldnt train a horse to win a ludlow sellin hurdle anymore....you know you shouldnt back it
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Had to back Mad Max at the price he may well have gone but this is this 1st time this year he's had the ideal trip and track
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I'm in the same boat Albion,Have backed MM almost every run of his life and as i rate him so highly i never had the bottle to back another horse against him and am also a huge fan of Albertas who i backed at cheltenham,but as tomorrows racing is so competitive i have decided to load up on Somersby for the first time also,his trip,his ground and could potentially power up the home straight to victory,wont be easy to pass Albertas but this could be the boy to do it
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Might have to have a saver on Mad Max
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I've took the 6's that was available for Master Minded, which I thought was great value if you can ignore his Champion Chase run (I know thats hard). I can't get it out my head how well he travelled over 2m4f this year in the race that Albertas fell in.
When I wrote the preview above I thought that Albertas would be shorter than 7/2 though - he's starting to become a good e/w bet as the ground is now really in his favour (came home yesterday from the races with my face like a tomato!!). Also, when I wrote it Kalahari King was 7's, don't think there is much value in 9/2 now. For me this is the most interesting race of the meeting (closely followed by Peddlers v Bino v Oscar) |
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Wellchief there was value/overpriced Kalahari King at time if had taken 8s on here, prices are about right now. Good Luck
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WOW
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 the first time in 3 years that i have never backed him feel sick with rage,stupidity on my part |
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Impressive wasn't he.
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Pleased he has silenced the people who thought he was finnish, obvious now he just needs a bit further.
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Feel your pain FormMan although rarely have I felt have I felt so happy to see a horse win despite having not even a nickle on it. What a horse, this opens up so many possibilities for PN next season.. They should not hesitate in retiring Kauto now they have this one to go to war with next season with the King George specifically, being such an obvious target
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i thought he was washed up,glad to be wrong.great performance,can't wait to see what he goes for next season
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A gutsy 2nd from Alberta's, so game. Just not the class of the winner on his day.
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Fantastic performance today. He jumped and travelled as well as we know he can, and proved he can stay the trip (I had no doubts after his romp at Ascot earlier in the year).
It's just with age (as any other horse) he will want further, and todays victory was one of the biggest of his career. If he'd lost then I think he'd be tripless, as its clear he wouldn't be winning any more Champion Chases; but because he won it opens up so many doors to him in England and possibly Ireland. Made up that he won; clearly the classiest horse in the race and everyone wants to see the best run at their best. Great performance by Albertas to stay on for second, and Tranquil Sea should improve for Punchestown where he'll have a bit more cut. Great race, won by a true champ. |
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Told ya, needs a trip
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thats why im so p1ssed off cv as i said exactly the same thing after chelters,knew he was not burnt out,knew he would stay the trip and knew he was by far the classiest horse in the field,i just bottled it as it was a very strong race on paper
did console myself with a nice chunk of the 7/1 about next years ryanair,e cant possibly stay the 3m2 gold cup so this will hopefully be the target |