Grand National
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the year comploy or die won it i must have backed about 8 
but normally only about 2 or 3
but normally only about 2 or 3
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One for me and one for Auntie Mary.
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depends how many horses i narrow it down to.
last year was poor year for stats based selections tho, only dun hello bud. normally bout 6 |
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If you back 6 horses to win you are guaranteed five losers with the probability of six. So pick one, get the best price available and steam in. Or better still, if you are a pro, then don't bet in this raceat all.
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I usually back 2, but I got into it early doors this year and because of that I have backed:
BecauseICouldntsee 131.42 Always Waining 150 Chief Dan George 48.01 Backstage 40 State of Play 43 Merigo 45 The Midnight Club 40 Killyglen 88.53 Oscar Time 28 What A Friend 26 Arbor Supreme 32.61 Comply or Die 64 BecauseICdntsee place 10.5 Ballabriggs 15 The figures are the average price I've backed them at and they are in order of profitability, if Ballabriggs wins I don't win a huge amount. I laid off my stake for a free bet on AW, although it looks like he won't run, and Merigo will probably be balloted out but it looks like I should get at least 8 or 9 runners for my money. |
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over the years this race has yeilded me most profit,last year was 1st time since i started betting on race i did'nt nail the winner. i have backed the first 3 home on two occasions.
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i think i may just back the two this year,ballabriggs seems to be the forgotten horse to me,and maybe bluesea cracker but she needs soft ground,so may hold fire on that one,
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I go heavy on one and then stagger it down for an interest. Although I have backed the winner on many occassions only once has my main bet won that was Numbersixvalverde AP 25-1. In 1990 I backed 4 and told a few friends about them, they were Brown Windsor, Rinus, Durham Edition and Mr Frisk, backed them all win singles no tricast or ew bets.
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..usually 2 and have had a faller at the 1st on a few occasions ....backstage and another 1 nearer the race
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i backed kings johns castle when he refused last year
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Well I think the national is one of the races you can actually make money on, or at the very least break even. Which considering the thrill and excitement you get from watching the race is not a bad return. Betfair allows you to get some ridiculous prices about some horses the high street bookies would never even entertain the idea of offering. As such you can build a nice book and have most of the fancied horses running for you.
Just my opinion anyway - but it takes time and effort. |
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Indded it does doug and I've spent too long on it this year. If one of mine doesn't win there is no way I'll bother looking from so far away next year.
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normally back 3/4 horses
oscar time my main bet this year |
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I noermally back a couple long range for big prices small stakes and one large bet on the day and two smaller bets following the market.
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most years 2- my fancy and a longshot- last year state of play made me some money and maljimar came down at bechers when just getting into it. struggling a bit to keep it to 2 this year. Oscar is main fancy and then i've got Northern alliance, killyglen,king fontaine and state of play again. hoping one or 2 drop out to make job easier. feels a bit daft backing loads but then again the national is a bit daft- brilliant and exciting but daft
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Past two years had a team of four, all e/w.
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king fontaine??good luck with that,i backed him at cheltenham,he is a dodgy jumper and struggled badly to stay in the race the whole way round
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2 or 3
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Why not lay the field at bf SP[;)]
It's only slightly harder to do than it sounds |
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4, all ew, with combo f/c and tris
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evra- my take at cheltenham was king font staying on at end. ignore previous PU on terrible ground. never fallen- good age weight etc. at 66s worth 50p ew
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good luck ceede,u may well be rite,may just want a trip
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5 places with most bookmakers so usally do 5 a couple antepost and then some nearer the time.
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I wish I was Toffee Boy Becauseicouldntsee 131.42 [:p]
1st Becauseicouldntsee, 2nd The Midnight Club, 3rd Don't Push It 4th Tidal Bay |
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Hi, Whats the situation on Junior is he gona run or not?
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Definitely won't Rich.
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Oh, Thanks! I thought he was great odds! When is the full list of runners out?
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Northern Alliance out saves me one losing bet
1 Oscar Time 2 Killyglen 3 King Fontaine 4 State Of Play |
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usually 3 or 4 i always stick the fav. a random 12/1 shot and a couple of others that names with blue in it or family name
1 midnight club 2 what a friend 3 bluesea cracker 4 chief dan george |
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ignore tips from anyone who puts tidal bay in first 4 imo
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If soft in the going I'd be all over 'Tonto' , but looks like drying ground.
At the mo I'm looking at - Backstage (backed it last year, was going well until it unseated at 20th, had a couple of confidence builders in PTP'S lately) Ballabriggs (won in big fields over 3m on good) Niche Market (as above but has Nicholls hoodoo to overcome) West End Rocker (looks progressive, poor latest) Surface to Air (one of the few to have won over 4m+, but was 3yr ago and only one run since) Character Building (looks a bit regressive, but bypassed Cheltenham this year) and Golden Kite (all wins bar 2 on good ground in large fields, acts well 2nd time out) if it gets in. All the above have ran within 50 days, are not younger than 8 or older than 11, and are under 11st (I know this stat was blown away last year). Good luck. PS. My record in this is poor, 3 winners in 20 years !! Can anyone cut this down for me ? All have been backed antepost. |
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Obv GK is in.Wrote this for another forum a few days ago.
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i wouldnt worry too much about the weight stat, was blown away last year as you said and was looking like being blown away sooner rather than later before last year.
if the only negative you can put up about a horse is "hoodoo" i would be backing it big time. |
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Not the only negative, I was being concise, ie can't be ars** typing loads.
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First and fifth, also unlucky with STA who was 8th.
Well done me.  |
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backed 4
2nd 4th and 9th plus killyglen gave me a great run till falling 4 from home- good year for me- still not backed the winner since earth summit tho |
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Normally just the one, but this year I backed 3.
Oscar Time, because I know the connections. State Of Play, because it was a silly price. Surface To Air, likewise. |
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surface to air ran a cracker
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Yup. Ran far better than I expected really. I never thought it was that likely a winner but he was 160 to win and 36 to place on here (I think he actually went off much bigger). To me that was a crazy price for a horse whose penultimate start, albeit 3 years ago, was to hose up over 4m on good ground.
State Of Play I flagged up on the chit-chat tips for the National thread. I'll readily admit that my Oscar Time bet was mostly heart, not head, but Sam really is one of the best jocks there is over the National fences. |