Grand National
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04 Apr 11
10:36
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Date Joined:
18 Jul 03
John Smith’s Grand National* entry, Our Monty has been trading at around 200/1 on Betfair these past few days - now 120/1 - and that is way too big in my opinion.
A maximum of 40 runners will line up for the big race on Saturday and Our Monty is number 48 on the list so he needs a few withdrawals to get a run. One horse, Our Monty’s stablemate, Ballytrim has already been taken out of the race (lame) and, sadly, One Cool Cookie - alongside Our Monty in the weights with 10stone 3lbs – suffered a fatal accident on the gallops.
Frankie Figg has since been announced a non-runner (he was on the same weight as Our Monty)
So Our Monty needs five horses above him in the weights to come out at the next declaration stage – noon today – to be sure of a run. Doubtless there will be some defectors and, possibly, between today and Saturday; the key will be whether those withdrawn are above him in the weights. Four reserves will be chosen too.
The good news is that trainer Willie Mullins is reported as saying the horse will be left in till the final stages to face the ballot for a place in the line-up. If Our Monty is unsuccessful in that ballot, bets on him are void and his supporters get their money returned.
Mr Mullins said in his Racing Post column last weekend that he believed Our Monty had been overlooked and that the horse was very well. If he makes it to the post on Saturday, it will be Our Monty’s first run since 15th November 2009 when he won the Paddy Power.com Cork Grand National. Here’s his form comment for that victory:
Settled in mid-division on inner, mistake 6 out, smooth progress to track leader entering straight, switched left to stands’ side and disputed 3 out, led next, cruised clear before last, very easily (op 2/1 tchd 11/4
The quote from jockey David Casey after that race was:
“I’d have no problem riding him over any trip. He could make an Irish National horse.”
Casey will ride Arbor Supreme but Katie Walsh has been booked for Our Monty (see K Walsh factfile at foot)
Our Monty’s next outing after Cork was to be in the Coral Welsh Grand National. He was as short as 8/1 for that before being withdrawn.
I don’t know why the horse has been off so long – I suspect a tendon injury has kept him out. However, Mr Mullins said last week that the horse is very well and they simply ran out of time in trying to find a prep race for him this season.
Our Monty’s full form panel appears at the foot of this article. He has won and been placed on the Flat. Over jumps he’s won at 2miles 1furlong and at 3m 4f. He has victories on good to firm ground and on heavy. Such versatility can be the sign of a very decent horse.
Our Monty joined the Mullins yard in late 2009 and is unbeaten in three runs since, winning each easily. He’s not that big but jumps well. He fell first time out over fences but in four subsequent ‘chasing runs he has made just one mistake. The trends boys will tell you that a horse with just five steeplechasing runs is one to avoid due to the experience needed in the National, and there’s plenty evidence to support that theory. But I never let trends put me off if the value is there.
If Our Monty does not get into the National, watch out for him wherever he appears next. He has an entry in Friday’s John Smith’s Topham Chase and has also been entered for the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown on April 23rd.
If you can get on at odds above 25/1 for the National with a guarantee of money back if he is balloted out, you will have had value. Taking the current huge prices available on the betting exchanges (Our Monty can be backed place only at what, in my opinion, should be his win price, around 24/1) is a no-brainer.
Good luck
Joe
http://wp.me/p1o7dN-cw
Ms Katie Walsh Born: December 18, 1984 County Kildare Background: Daughter of trainer and broadcaster Ted Walsh and sister of Ruby. Honed her riding skills three-day eventing First Winner: Hannon, Gowran Park, October 10, 2003. Rides principally for Willie Mullins. Cheltenham Festival Wins (2): Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle (2010 Thousand Stars); 140th Year Of The National Hunt Chase (2010 Poker De Sivola) Wins In Britain (2004/05-2009/10): 0; 0; 0; 1; 0; 2;
A maximum of 40 runners will line up for the big race on Saturday and Our Monty is number 48 on the list so he needs a few withdrawals to get a run. One horse, Our Monty’s stablemate, Ballytrim has already been taken out of the race (lame) and, sadly, One Cool Cookie - alongside Our Monty in the weights with 10stone 3lbs – suffered a fatal accident on the gallops.
Frankie Figg has since been announced a non-runner (he was on the same weight as Our Monty)
So Our Monty needs five horses above him in the weights to come out at the next declaration stage – noon today – to be sure of a run. Doubtless there will be some defectors and, possibly, between today and Saturday; the key will be whether those withdrawn are above him in the weights. Four reserves will be chosen too.
The good news is that trainer Willie Mullins is reported as saying the horse will be left in till the final stages to face the ballot for a place in the line-up. If Our Monty is unsuccessful in that ballot, bets on him are void and his supporters get their money returned.
Mr Mullins said in his Racing Post column last weekend that he believed Our Monty had been overlooked and that the horse was very well. If he makes it to the post on Saturday, it will be Our Monty’s first run since 15th November 2009 when he won the Paddy Power.com Cork Grand National. Here’s his form comment for that victory:
Settled in mid-division on inner, mistake 6 out, smooth progress to track leader entering straight, switched left to stands’ side and disputed 3 out, led next, cruised clear before last, very easily (op 2/1 tchd 11/4
The quote from jockey David Casey after that race was:
“I’d have no problem riding him over any trip. He could make an Irish National horse.”
Casey will ride Arbor Supreme but Katie Walsh has been booked for Our Monty (see K Walsh factfile at foot)
Our Monty’s next outing after Cork was to be in the Coral Welsh Grand National. He was as short as 8/1 for that before being withdrawn.
I don’t know why the horse has been off so long – I suspect a tendon injury has kept him out. However, Mr Mullins said last week that the horse is very well and they simply ran out of time in trying to find a prep race for him this season.
Our Monty’s full form panel appears at the foot of this article. He has won and been placed on the Flat. Over jumps he’s won at 2miles 1furlong and at 3m 4f. He has victories on good to firm ground and on heavy. Such versatility can be the sign of a very decent horse.
Our Monty joined the Mullins yard in late 2009 and is unbeaten in three runs since, winning each easily. He’s not that big but jumps well. He fell first time out over fences but in four subsequent ‘chasing runs he has made just one mistake. The trends boys will tell you that a horse with just five steeplechasing runs is one to avoid due to the experience needed in the National, and there’s plenty evidence to support that theory. But I never let trends put me off if the value is there.
If Our Monty does not get into the National, watch out for him wherever he appears next. He has an entry in Friday’s John Smith’s Topham Chase and has also been entered for the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown on April 23rd.
If you can get on at odds above 25/1 for the National with a guarantee of money back if he is balloted out, you will have had value. Taking the current huge prices available on the betting exchanges (Our Monty can be backed place only at what, in my opinion, should be his win price, around 24/1) is a no-brainer.
Good luck
Joe
http://wp.me/p1o7dN-cw
Ms Katie Walsh Born: December 18, 1984 County Kildare Background: Daughter of trainer and broadcaster Ted Walsh and sister of Ruby. Honed her riding skills three-day eventing First Winner: Hannon, Gowran Park, October 10, 2003. Rides principally for Willie Mullins. Cheltenham Festival Wins (2): Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle (2010 Thousand Stars); 140th Year Of The National Hunt Chase (2010 Poker De Sivola) Wins In Britain (2004/05-2009/10): 0; 0; 0; 1; 0; 2;
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Replies: 27
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He must be about fifty now.
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Nice read Joe.
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good read stepple,
a montjeu winning a national,now that will be a first  |
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Monty on Auntie Mary's shortlist if it runs. But it's older than me and I watched Stanley Matthews live.
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Is he in at number 40??
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Yes our monty number 40 after todays withdrawals.
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That doesn't make him definite yet, does it? Isn't it a ballot between the 3 on 10-3 (Arbor Supreme, Our Monty, Royal Rosa) for the last 2 places. As it stands, I mean. Ignoring the fact that something else will probably come out. Just checking as despite my advancing years and experience, I always get confused by the final places out of the 40.
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last 4 in at 37, 38,39,40:
Surface To Air (GB) That’s Rhythm (FR) Arbor Supreme (IRE) Our Monty Full decs on my blog: http://wp.me/p1o7dN-e4 |
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I'll answer my own question now since I found the answer elsewhere. The handicapper gets the say and since Arbor Supreme has run and come second since the weights were published, he is virtually certain to get the 39th place. But then it is unclear between the other 2 as neither has run. And this IS making an assumption, albeit a highly reasonable one, about Arbor getting the nod...
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Roll Along is pretty doubtful imo, so there's another spot.
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Monty is definitely in the 40
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Carpet Man - elimination is based on rating: OM is 135, R Rosa 129
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@ carpetman
(with thanks to Paul Struthers of the BHA) ELIMINATION - If elimination is necessary, the balloting of horses set to carry the same weight will be decided upon by using the horses' current handicap mark at the time of elimination. In the event of two or more horses on the same weight having an identical current handicap rating, their elimination sequence will be determined by random ballot. OUR MONTY has an official mark of 139 ROYAL ROSE has an official mark of 129 Therefore OUR MONTY gets the nod for the 40th spot Probably academic now anyway as if ROLL ALONG doesn't make it then both will get in with ROYAL ROSA getting the last spot. |
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Would be somewhat ironic if not amusing, if after all the hullabaloo as to Montjeu's not winning at Cheltenham, after Hurricane Fly put that one to bed in CH, then Our Monty came out and won the National. Won't say it can't happen (always dangerous - especially if laying) but personally if we are talking about inexperienced horses winning the National I'd far rather be on Quinz.
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I think Quinz has got a great chance, and think he has been overlooked. He's currently 25's on here now, and don't know whether to wait for the day because prices will change dramatically.
He is 9lbs well in (OR is 153, running of 144), and bypassed Cheltenham for this. He was joint fav with Bensalem for the William Hill after his Racing Post Chase victory. Massive chance |
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A horse younger than 8 hasn't won the National in 71 years.
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Totally agree Wellchief, sometimes you have to ignore the stats (too youg, inexperienced etc) and go with gut instinct. This horse jumps well and has great enthusiasm, which is a usueful tool for GN. I loved the way he was up with pace in RPC and stayed on strongly again after looking like being beaten. If he can get past first few fences, which is always crucial in GN 9tad worried about him charging them) and settle into a rhythm then I think he has a major chance. Visions of him winning like Lord Gyllene.
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quinz will not win,way too young,i remember nicholls ran turko in the national as a 6yo,totally ruined the horse,took a crashing fall and was never the same afterwards
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can't see either of these getting round.a women on board as well.do what i did with my character building bet and lay off
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nothing like reading a bit of sexist drivel on a monday evening.
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just an opinion
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Our Monty misses the National due to an infection
http://www.racingpost.com/news/ horse-racing/grand-national-aintree -our-monty-misses-national-with -infection/837876/top/ Bad luck there Steeplechasing |
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Royal Rosa now no 40 - next four (Reserves) would now be Skipper's Brig, Golden Kite, Always Waining and the "best" of those scheduled to carry 10-1. Faasel??. Probably more to come out before tomorrows final decs so could be several of those 10-1'ers.
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I'd be surprised if any more came out (barring infections or injuries etc)
The last couple of years have seen all top 40 stand their ground at the final declaration stage Roll Along looks out (680 to back here) which would mean Skippers Brig is in while Golden Kite will get in if Northern Alliance is pulled out (also doubtful) This would leave Always Waining as the first reserve |
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Our Monty is OUT .
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Unforgiven - Thanks for the confirmation. Already posted on here.
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Damn it--I thought this was a huge price for a horse that had btn everything set b/f him on his last three runs and wd have been bet on the Sat. by the public.
Further shrapnel down the drain |