Grand National
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
It regularly seems that fancied horses from Cheltenham get beaten because they have lost a bit of their spark. Are they primed for Cheltenham and so have gone over the top. Is it worth looking out for horses that have bounced Cheltenham (e.g. Riverside Theatre)?
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 33
|
By:
Riverside Theatre is out for the season with a cracked pelvis.
|
|
By:
Guess he won't be winning there then! Any horses that didn't run at Cheltenham who weren't injured?
|
|
By:
Cheltenham winners don't have a great record gman, just three last season in big bucks, pedlars cross and albertas. However, there were plenty of other winners who ran at cheltenham who went on to win at aintree. I'll try and get some stats together in the morning.
|
|
By:
Cheers RF. Will be interesting to see if there's any trends!
|
|
By:
royal charm - paul nicholls. bypassed cheltenham, aintree on the agenda. I always look out for a horse that had a long lay off before going to cheltenham eg. quevega. I know Willie Mullins said she would not be going to Aintree but to Pun instead, I think he should give her a crack against Peddlers Cross over 2m4f at Liverpool ..
|
|
By:
Had a quick look at last year's results, 13 of the 21 winners had run in the Cheltenham Festival three weeks earlier and three of those had a winning double.
Notable that Tatanio swerved Cheltenham and won well at Aintree, i'd expect this to run next week so one for the notebook. What A Friend was the other notable runner to swerve Chelters and score at Aintree. Here's how the winners got on at Cheltenham: Peddlers Cross - won the Neptune Big Buck's - won the World Hurdle Albertas Run - won the Ryanair Khyber Kim - 2nd in Champion Hurdle From Dawn to Dusk - 3rd in Group Plate Don't Push It - Pulled up in Pertemps Dee Ee Williams - 3rd in County Hurdle Megastar - 5th in Champion Bumper Orsippus - 3rd in Fred Winter Mad Max - 4th in Arkle Sir Harry Ormesher - 7th in Coral Cup General Miller - unseated rider in Supreme Burton Port - 2nd in RSA I have the Paul Jones trend book on order so should have a quick ref guide to previous years, i think a lot depends on the gap between meets so this year should be long enough if last year's anything to go by. We'll also start getting the decs at the weekend so see if anything stands out. |
|
By:
Tataniano was being aimed at Aintree the last I read. Many horses that ran at Chelts will get beaten as there will be several in most races at Aintree but some will win. The trick is finding the right ones. One that interests me is Qaspal who got left 100 yards at Cheltenham and was never put in the race.
|
|
By:
Think Silvinaco Conti has swerved Cheltenham as well?
|
|
By:
Last year I backed The Nightingale and Me Voici because they both swerved Cheltenham, and they both got stuffed!
I find picking winners at Aintree incredibly difficult because its a guessing game as to which horses are over the top and which ones aren't |
|
By:
Cheers RF. Nice bit of research. Will be interesting to see if the Cheltenham winners start favourites, as the strike rate wasn't that good last year. I imagine that a number of the 2010 winners would have been at lively EW prices. Place betting could represent value at the meet.
|
|
By:
well chief... me voici only went on heavy, soft was pushin it
 poor lad |
|
By:
So 11 of the 13 winners above all ran well at Cheltenham
Don't Push It was clearly only using Cheltenham as a warm-up for Aintree while General Miller was fancied to run a big race in the Supreme (by me anyway - got my money back at Aintree) So you're looking for something which ran well at Cheltenham without having had a very hard race |
|
By:
We might see Mon Parrain there, looks a great prospect
|
|
By:
The Bowl has been something of a graveyard for Gold Cup runners with IC and Denman both falling in the past two years.
Will be interesting to see how short Long Run is if he turns up. |
|
By:
Aintree Hurdle
WINNER YEAR PRICE CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL RESULT Khyber Kim (2010) 7/2 2nd in Champion Hurdle Solwhit (2009) 6/1 Hadn't gone to Cheltenham Al Eile (2008) 11/4 Hadn't gone to Cheltenham Al Eile (2007) 12/1 Hadn't gone to Cheltenham Asian Maze (2006) 4/1 Fell in Champion Hurdle Al Eile (2005) 11/1 7th in Champion Hurdle Rhinestone Cowboy (2004) 5/2 3rd in Coral Cup Sacundai (2003) 9/1 Hadn't gone to Cheltenham Ilnamar (2002) 9/1 Won Coral Cup Barton (2001) 9/1 Hadn't gone to Cheltenham Mister Morose (2000) 16/1 5th in Stayers Hurdle Istabraq (1999) 1/2 Won Champion Hurdle Pridwell (1998) 6/1 4th in Champion Hurdle Bimsey (1997) 14/1 13th in Champion Hurdle Urubande (1996) 100/30 Won Sun Alliance Hurdle Danoli (1995) 2/1 3rd in Champion Hurdle Danoli (1994) 9/2 Won Sun Alliance Hurdle |
|
By:
I've admittedly only gone back to 1994, not into the 70s when the race began.
7 of the last 17 winners a double figure price. Only 2 horses since 1996 won having been victorious at Cheltenham. |
|
By:
Bob's Worth will follow up imv
Long Run worth taking on |
|
By:
Punchestowns is my idea of the Bowl winner.
|
|
By:
I don't think it applies as much anymore due to a lot of the cheltenham horses have only had the odd run
pre-cheltenham so are still relatively fresh compared to in the past. Also I don't think some the races are run at the breakneck gallop they used to be run at. Last years stats seem to show this is the case. You could also throw in that the weather has been mild since Cheltenham ,increasing horses recovery rate. |
|
By:
I will be keen to back Alberta's Run again. This lovely sort peaks for the 2 big meetings and owes me a deal less than nothing. Rain stay away.
|
|
By:
aye, smashin chance again i think
|
|
By:
reve! If you had won at Chelters last year my ew double with Alberta's would have jackpotted
 12s and 33s.... |
|
By:
brave man backin reve
 i couldnt do it myself. would like to see him 3 mile hurdling |
|
By:
Had you this year as well lol. If only you could jump. A remarkable 3rd I thought.
|
|
By:
if yogi breisner got him, hed probably say , this lad is WROTE OFF
|
|
By:
Has anyone else pre-ordered the Paul Jones GN/Punchy betting guide?
Still not been released and amazon's saying estimated dispatch time is 26th April! Wonder if it's not made it to publication this year? |
|
By:
Wasn't Tidal Bay the only Cheltenham winner to go on and win at Aintree a few seasons back?
Long Run and Binocular should secure the title for Nicky Henderson. Grandouet is also one to look out for. He'll love Aintree. Expect him to slip his field and not be caught round there. Alberta's Run will get his ground again and should be hard to beat. Alan King fancies his chances of taking the bumper with Motabazon. |
|
By:
There wasn't long between the two festivals a few years back, just a couple of weeks if I remember rightly, which probably has a bearing, as do the points tinkler made.
|
|
By:
I laid a chunk on IC last year at about evens when someone on here gave a stat that something like only 1/25 GC winners had followed up in the Bowl. Was never in doubt that day, the thing ran like a drain.
Much as I love Long Run and really want him to be a genuine superstar, if he is around the evens mark I'll do the same again. |
|
By:
I'd say the form at Cheltenham holds up pretty well at Aintree.
The two courses agreed some years ago that there would be fully 3 weeks between festivals, prior to that there were years when there was just 16 days between GC and National with the majority of horses bypassing Aintree as a result. These days so many horses are aimed at a Spring campaign having few Autumn/Winter runs that more and more horses are standing their ground at both. |
|
By:
Its the winners, that don't perform, because they have given that little bit extra, about 1 Cheltenham winner, generally wins at Aintree as well.
|
|
By:
i have to say folks, zarkandar will be a winner at both this year[;)]
|
|
By:
That's a good policy.
|