Ortac Resources

http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.co.uk/sectorreports/GoldJan10.pdf

This report suggests that at Gold $1136, over 41 small mining companies, a measured ounce is worth $403.53, an indicated $85.94, and an inferred $3.78.

So updating for $1545 gold. - Measured $548.80, indicated $116.87, inferred $5.14.

Ortac current has a JORC of 1,087,000 Oz comprised of:

Measured - 112,000 oz.....$548.80/oz
Indicated - 467,000 oz.... $116.87/oz
Inferred - 508,000 oz..... $5.14/oz

Discovery value (cost to get out of ground) per Oz:

Measured......112,000 Oz......$56.33/Oz
Indicated.....467,000 Oz......$15.16/Oz
Inferred......508,000 Oz......$8.3/Oz

Out of ground value (JORC minus cost to get out of ground)

Measured...112,000 Oz...$492.47/Oz...$55.16m(£33.55m)...2.08p/share.
Indicated..467,000 Oz..$101.71/Oz...$47.50m (£28.89m)....1.67p/share.
Inferred...508,000 Oz....-$3.16./Oz.... N/A


SILVER

Current JORC of 7,427,200 Oz.

Current silver price - $37.00

Based on values from other companies

Measured - $18.63/oz
Indicated - $8.38/oz
Inferred - $1.20/oz

Measured...790,000..$18.63/Oz...$14,717,700...£8.95m...0.45p/share
Indicated..3,353,000..$8.38/Oz...$28,098,140...£17.09m....0.99p/share
Inferred..3,284,000....$1.20/Oz...$3,940,000....£2.40m...not viable.


So potential valuation:

Gold (out of ground).....3.75p
Silver(in ground)........1.44p
Silver(out of ground)....????P
VGM shares...............0.12p

total - 5.31p

clearly putting more back into the measured (and indicated) category will put this even higher. The major assumption here is that you can extrapolate the values in the report to what they would be now gold is $1545/oz. Sentiment in this sector is clearly low at the moment, and I think if it was investigated in detail, you would find that the value put on a measured ounce is probably still the same as what it was when gold was $1136/oz. Still, even if you assume there is a 25-50% discount on all values, as in line with the recent sector performance across all mining stocks, this still gives a share price of 2.66-3.98p.

Whatever way you look at it, there has to be significant upside from here, and looks great value to hit my minimum target of 200% by the end of the year. If sentiment in this sector improves, which I think it is bound to eventually, then there will be significant gains. If more resources are put back into the measured (and indicated) category of the JORC, or if further finds are found during the drilling, such as doubling the resources to 2 million oz, there will be significant gains. Either way there is very little downside, and huge potential upside, so this has to be value.

cheers whippet i've bought two lots myself and fingers crossed

Agreed Whippet. oversold and possible reserves update on way shortly. 2p here we come.

Good researched post Whippet, I'll get a few myself this week.

And of course, none of the well paid research analysts out there have noticed all this very public info and priced the shares accordingly ?
If not, why not you have to ask yourself before you plunge in lads. At least just try to find the arguments out there against Whippet's viewpoint. Don't ask me though,not my area of interest. But there will be some good ones, that's for sure, there always are.
You know what they say, if it sounds too good to be true etc etc etc.
But it's your money in the end, so enjoy the ride. I wish you all the best.

That research by Edison was out on December last year. The shares ramped up from 1.60p to 2.75p. Now they are at 1.10p bid and 1.12p offer. Good luck

You two obviously haven't paid much attention to what the AIM resources sector has been doing the last few months. The majority of companies are down up to 50%. This share is no different, so is in good company. There was a sell off when the last JORC came out, because people were expecting big things based on the grades they had seen so far, and got disappointed when there was less in the measured category (even though the total resource had been upped to 1.1 million oz). I would rather the company did things by the book though, instead of doing a Desire and claiming they had found stuff they hadn't.

I have fully done my SWOT analysis on this, and the only risk is around what actually comes from the drilling results. This is the same with every single exploration company out there, so obviously if you don't like these risks, then it is pointless investing in these types of companies.

strengths however: stable country. skilled workforce. open pit possible. JORC resource. only 1/5th of area of main prospect drilled (+ numerous other exploration prospects). fully funded for 2 years. recent (oversubscribed) placing at 1.5p. ticks all the boxes for me.

whippet do you get the investors chronicle?

And of course, none of the well paid research analysts out there have noticed all this very public info and priced the shares accordingly ?


since when do analyst price targets cause automatic rerating of stocks to that price? An analyst target means they think it is a good buy. It might take months or years to hit that target.

no MT

you been buying much this week?

I am at a cross roads as to my next move!!!!

I have just heard from the grapevine that the Ortac CEO is appearing at the minesite presentation next week, and that there is likely to be some news before then about the drilling (possibly a few assay results?).

http://minesite.com/pub/articles/article_id-46

taken from iii.

Hi Jason,

Thanks for the heads up.

Following on from our previous correspondence, we are now in a position to start releasing regular news flow (first announcement to be released sometime this week or next).

I have also put my name down to present at next weeks ‘Minesite’ forum where I will be able to provide further detail as to what we are doing on the ground and where we are heading … this however has still to be confirmed by Minesite.

Best regards,

Vassili

now is a good entry point imo because any decent grades from the next rns (due soon) and this will bounce quite a bit.

get in range resources and ortac money tree. great prices for both and imminent news flow coming. range are spudding wells starting in 2 weeks and there is going to be tons of news flow over the coming weeks. I've got a target of £1 on range by early next year. dyor etc.

I am worried that I have tied up too many funds on long range investments.

had a sh1t luck day today 6 horse multi only one did nor place gutted.

what is long term to you MT? imo ortac and range will both be quite a bit higher by the end of this year, as well as being good longer term investments.

long term= retirement fund!!

how long have you been investing for?

about 6 years, built up quite a decent pot now. hoping to make enough to retire soon

I have a good pension that I started at 19, a work pension and an old frozen work pension, my worry is mrs tree only had a frozen 10k pension all though she works for john lewis so gets a final salary there is big chance she wont be there for ever so I am trying to invest in long term plans to cover her as a pension.

starts to get difficult to seperate long term goals from short term gains.

Whippet
Presumably like most investors you're just trying to gain more on your wins than lose on your losses. Correct ?
The trouble with your posts on here is that you only seem to post your projections for gains and, correct me if I'm wrong, you only post up views that promote shares you have already taken a position in. Correct ?
Also, what is your financials/share research skill background ?
Are you a geologist ?
Are you an economist ?
Are you an investment banker ?
Are you a stock broker ?
Or are you just an enthusiatic amateur ( nothing wrong with that btw, just would like to know if you are).?
Finally what are you real motives for giving us all  " such free share tips " on here ?
Or are you just perhaps only quite honestly looking for endorsement and general support for fellow like investors, for peace of mind purposes ?

"And of course, none of the well paid research analysts out there have noticed all this very public info and priced the shares accordingly?"

That's an utterly ridiculous post froggy. It's a bit like saying how can a well paid odds compiler get the price of a betting event wrong! Funnily enough they do, every hour, every day.

If someone puts up a decent argument why a football team may be wrongly priced to win a match, I may well listen, and sometimes bet accordingly. Don't see why it should be any different for a share tip?

FINE AS FROG HAIR,FFS why not just call Whippet a 'SHARE RAMPER!!' and be done with it

I thought you would have scuttled off after your ridiculous post about analyst targets (did you not notice that every single stock has an analyst target different from what the share price is or something? )

Why would I ramp on a forum that no one views, and where most of the people that do don't have two fivers to rub together? There has been a lot of accusations amongst the regulars on this forum about people being guessers or fantasists, that is why I'm posting my picks. Also, I clearly state at the top that I am "accumulating these", no hidden motives at all.

Just thought I would alert people to opportunities I spot, and why, and they can research it themselves if they are interested.

Also, again it is complete nonsense to suggest I only post gains. I have stated here that there is very little downside until the drilling results because the SP has drifted down 50% in line with most of the AIM resources sector. Clearly, if the company finds nothing, then the downside is almost 100%-whatever assets are left, which should be blatantly obvious to anyone who has ever invested in AIM stocks. However if they company completes what it has set out to achieve, then the upside is unlimited, no questions asked (or do you think that this will be forever valued at $23/oz even with a 2 million oz+ measured resource?). I think that is a pretty good bet on what I have seen so far, which is why this is a screaming buy to me.

Actually I didn't mean analyst share price targets but I agree that my post read that way.
I really meant that the market price usually reasonably reflects all the good analytical research reports out there.
And if they don't, then you might be onto something, but otherwise I would say not overall.
I suppose I'm just questioning whether there is ever anything new or novel in the analysis you're posting on here.
But as long as you clearly say you're not ramping in any form or manner ( intended or unintended) and trying to suck in innocents, then there's no problem.

There's very, very few good research reports out there on small caps. No one seems to bother with them. The big II boys don't usually invest in these companies either. This is what I like about it, because it is more of a level playing field, and your own research really does matter. I do think there is actually quite a large edge investing in small caps, if you are prepared to buy out of favour ones and wait until they come good (however long that takes). ok, you might pick the occasional dud one, but the gains are so large on the good ones you pick that it outweighs those. At least that has been the case over the 6 years I've been investing in them. Maybe I just got seriously lucky all this time.

Aim stocks are a gamble imo, but why should whippet not post up shares he thinks there are value in?

lucky i didnt im in a disaster share of rem.

the REM chart doesn't look anything worse that most other aim shares out there mt. so I reckon hold on to them unless the fundamentals change.

Fair enough Whippet.
However I'm still a bit puzzled by your, or in fact anyone's, motivations in spending a lot of time and effort in posting up sometimes quite lengthy and detailed analyses of shares on here.
If you have such a good " edge" as you say you have, what's to gain in giving away things, at least before you have totally filled up your boots with them in advance ?.
And if you have filled up, then that raises more serious questions and doubts of your motives.
However, if you are posting your pre-buy analyses in the hope of someone more knowledgeable or experienced than you pointing out to you the various weaknesses of your arguments, then that is an entirely different matter.
I wouldn't have thought tough that this forum would ever likely be the best place to do that.
You live in hope though I suppose.

Whippet
I must admit that I am somewhat amused by your statement " The big II boys don't usually invest in these companies. ---- it is more of a level playing field ".
And why do you think that ?
History shows the opposite I would say.
These stocks are seriously manipulated by all sorts of people , of very dubious reputations.
Hence maybe that's exactly why the big boys don't touch them with a bargepole, at least until their corporate governance is well and truly tried and tested.
It's a market ruled by cowboys, and where the sheriff is seriously outgunned.

so why are you here frog hair?

so why are you here frog hair?

Just to pass some time.
Not really expecting to gain anything.
I do find it interesting sometimes in a car crash sort of way.
And before you ask, I don't say how or what I invest in on any public forum anywhere.
Can't see one thing to gain from doing it tbh.

Manipulating stocks =/= investing.

I have no doubt manipulation goes on, but there's absolutely no reason for this to concern you if you are investing long term. Eventually the true price of the company wins out, regardless of what rampers/derampers do in the mean time.

As for II's, the main reason is because they can't get enough dosh invested in these companies because of the low market cap. If you have a few billion under management, what exactly are you going to do with a company who's market cap is only £30 mill? Most large II's etc would rather just follow the herd into whatever the latest hot stock is than p1ss about with some of the small fry on the aim.

Therefore only specialist funds or rich PI's tend to get involved in a large way. You are correct in saying that there are some dodgy AIM companies or characters out there looking to fleece investors, but there are also a lot of very, very good companies, so you shouldn't tar all of them with the same brush.

well be fair you must be mad if you think posting on here is ramping even if all 7 forum users lumped on the share it would not be enough to change the price.

I agree I do not think that this is the forum that rampers would chose.
But I still don't see the point of telling people what you actually invest in at what price and when.
Maybe what you are thinking of investing in, I can more understand that.

others opinion positive or otherwise is all ways a good addition imo.

are you an aim investor hairy frog?

I'd say that it must be pretty obvious I'm not, and nothing that I have read on here would convince me to become one.
But we're all different in our approaches to accumulating wealth and, if Whippet et al find AIM their best market, all the very best to them.

got my fingers burnt on a few AIM shares earlier this year esp XEL& EO.--did my own research but got carried along on a wave of optimism --bought high ,managed to sell quickly enough before the big drops--the message boards on III & LSE are dangerous places for the beginner

ttt

ttt, thoughts from any of the forum shrewdies on ortac

0.28p ffs

0.21p please put me out of my misery :D