May’s strategy,doesn’t include no deal

I don’t think anyone quite knows how May will play this, although running the clock down is definitely part of her approach. I wouldn’t be too confident she’s not going to accept or at least be unable to or want to control the risk of no deal.

While I think May is pretty hopeless in lots of ways, it is amusing how many avid leavers are convinced that she’s really a remainer and is trying to sabotage Brexit while remainers are terrified she’s in the power of the ERG and will facilitate no deal.

I really don’t see her going for an election. I doubt she can scare the ERG enough to get her deal through and the arithmetic is then basically impossible, especially as I don’t think she can get the DUP happy with. Her and indeed the executive generally’s control over events is then rather sketchy, especially as even if they ask for an A50 extension, the EU isn’t obliged to oblige. She could make preventing no deal harder, which is one option, although not one I expect her to take. Most likely A50 does extend though, with indicative votes in parliament, although no consensus may emerge and then God only knows what happens. She could also try to extend for a GE, but it would be a huge gamble she would have no need to take and no clear position to put in a manifesto either. Or it’s another referendum, which like the other options, she’s already ruled out and which is fraught with all sorts of difficulties but would at least resolve the issue.

Huh, a second referendum would resolve the issue, cant see that

Feb 12, 2019 -- 11:19PM, yajyaj wrote:

Huh, a second referendum would resolve the issue, cant see that

Well, it’s not exactly a great option and obviously people who still want to leave, especially with no deal bang on about how undemocratic it would be (to have a democratic vote) but if it included remain; the current deal and no deal, probably with a transferable vote, then a fair crack of the whip would have been offered to options that are now a lot better fleshed out. It could only happen in an otherwise deadlocked situation. I’ve posted before about how fraught with difficulties it would be but if parliament can’t agree a deal the EU also accepts and no deal, which hardly has democratic legitimacy either, especially given parliament’s dislike of it, is prevented then where else do you go? As I say, another election probably won’t be called because it wouldn’t suit May to take that gamble and in any case, would not necessarily resolve the situation anyway.

LBC had a guest panel some time last week, the guy that wanted a referendum used the following analogy, unfortunately he wasn't challenged on his conclusion of the question being... deal,no deal or remain , here it is...........A family vote on going out for the day, they vote yes and board a train, whilst on the train they obviously vote on the destination, amongst the destinations was returning home !!!, Alexa got a right mouthful

What is the source for this?

I was actually reading the general election theory yday but I'm real sceptical it would be played like this (and sceptical of it at all). If she offers a final vote on Brexit being that it's vote for my deal or there will be a general election it's pretty much giving up on any getting any cross party support. She's solely relying on her entire party voting for her, and given that it would only take a handful to say no I can't see this being a winning strategy at all.

The real problem May is gonna have coming up is unless she passes a deal, the EU aren't going to just accept an extension for no reason or more of the same. And even with the blackmail of leaving it late, to me the arithmetic doesn't add up for her to pass a deal. The ERG/DUP want no deal anyway, the People's Vote MP's I think despite probs being most likely to buckle won't buckle out of principle of May's deal being crap, and Corbyn has already said he won't vote for it pretty much so is likely to whip his party against. There's overlap there, but that's about 350 MP's alone.

Seems a sensible analysis to me n88. The only remotely plausible GE scenario I see is the DUP being p1ssed off enough by the deal going through with the backstop to vote the government down and even that’s really unlikely because the parliamentary arithmetic doesn’t suggest that can happen without the ERG and they’re too mad and too entrenched. Only other thing, I suppose, is a Labour facilitation of a WA and a massive backlash giving the Tories a big poll lead but it’s an unlikely set of events that gets you there and even then, an election would be a big gamble.

How will a general election actually solve anything if you get a result similar to now and neither party gets a majority?

Coalition government beckons in that scenario.

Feb 13, 2019 -- 11:09PM, n88uk wrote:

How will a general election actually solve anything if you get a result similar to now and neither party gets a majority?

Well quite. Arguable even more crucially though, how would the Tories constitute a manifesto pledge on Brexit? Both parties were able to put something fairly vague in last time. That wouldn’t be an option in an election called to sort out Brexit.

Feb 13, 2019 -- 11:11PM, politicspunter wrote:

Coalition government beckons in that scenario.

Which you'd think leaves in the exact same position we're in now? It could arguably actually be even worse. So the idea a general election just solves Brexit on the spot seems mostly follow, as unless you get a majority it definitely won't work out like that.

Problem I guess is Fatslogger that Tories would still get away with it as people don't study manifestos that hard so they would get away with lying. You will just get vague we will negotiate the best deal for Britain guff, even though it's hardly believable given how we've ended up in this position in the first place.

Like there'd be nothing to stop a blatant lie like we will negotiate changes to the backstop to provide Brexit for Britain, even if the EU continually say no, they'd still get away with blatant lies like that.

I mean that's what she's pretty much done in parliament this week isn't it, told blatant lies about negotiations that aren't even taking place. If she can stand up and do that in parliament, for sure they can lie to the country in a manifesto.

amazing that people think having a 2nd reff is sticking 2 fingers up to democracy,but think a PM trying to blackmail mp,s to accept a deal that suffered the worst defeat in commons history,and most brexiteers and remainers think is shoite,is honouring democracy,,
and we laugh at the likes of Syria,iraq,iran,etc,etc

ffs  for last time to those who think this woman wont lie at the dispatch box,she was asked a simple yes/no question by the queen looked her in the eyes,took her hand and lied through her teeth,after that as everyone has found out your just a pleb including EU,ERG

Feb 13, 2019 -- 11:42PM, n88uk wrote:

Like there'd be nothing to stop a blatant lie like we will negotiate changes to the backstop to provide Brexit for Britain, even if the EU continually say no, they'd still get away with blatant lies like that.

Possibly although I think there would be quite a lot of scrutiny. I more meant that it would be difficult verging on impossible for the Tories to unite behind a position, even one vaguely articulated.

theres absolutely no point in moderate tory,s ,labour voting for her deal as its likely there,ll be a far more right wing brexiteer leading the tory,s and therefore negotiations on the future relationship,weve got another 4,5,6 years of this to come, just think of those keeping their powder dry gove,leadsome,mourant,fox,all favour the erg side of the party

There's also no point of a Labour MP voting for her deal full stop if they're a Labour person as that's helping her out in keeping Conservatives together, thus not beneficial to Labour. Only listen if she starts listening to their demands (ie. a Labour Brexit), otherwise send her on her bike and let the Conservatives tear themselves apart.

If Labour dont support it they will part of the gang helping no deal happen.

The thing is no deal would tear Conservatives apart as well, and also make a general election before the end of year much more likely.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

Overwhelmingly approved by parliament despite the only unilateral certainty being the option to leave with no deal

n88uk
17 Feb 19 10:44
Joined: 26 May 12
| Topic/replies: 170,512 | Blogger: n88uk's blog
The thing is no deal would tear Conservatives apart as well, and also make a general election before the end of year much more likely.

^

Then what happens as both parties are split on Brexit. Likely to get another minority government that can get nothing through Parliament.

At the same time there is more and more uncertainty for everyone dragging it on and on.

An election would be difficult for the main two parties. The new Farage party would stand candidates on a platform of leave means leave and on the other side the greens and liberals would campaign for a second ref. Labour and tories would have to have clear positions and whatever they were would anger some in their party

At last thanks drive, nobody else on here has acknowledged the significance of the "Brexit party"

They would be insignificant to the result.

under the current diabolical electoral system they would probably get no seats but will take several million votes off the 2 main parties. just a question of who they damage most

There are a number of fluid voters. The Greens and UKIP would be unlikely to win many seats but they could swing tight constituencies.

In 2010 the lib dems picked up nearly 7 million votes only 2 million less than labour. By 2017 they were down to 2.3 million. In 2015 UKIP picked up nearly 4 million votes more than the SNP & Lib Dems combined.

These voters migrated to the two main parties in 2017 but there is no guarantee they will remain there.

If the new Farage party gains traction - 100,000 people have signed up to it before it has officially launched then they could impact seats without actually winning them.

If there was a snap election and the lib dems campaigned on a second referendum and the other two parties didnt then they would pick up some voters from both parties and could potentially a lot from labour.

Feb 17, 2019 -- 11:00AM, InsiderTrader wrote:

n88uk17 Feb 19 10:44Joined: 26 May 12| Topic/replies: 170,512 | Blogger: n88uk's blogThe thing is no deal would tear Conservatives apart as well, and also make a general election before the end of year much more likely.^Then what happens as both parties are split on Brexit. Likely to get another minority government that can get nothing through Parliament.At the same time there is more and more uncertainty for everyone dragging it on and on.

I agree, I've said many times I don't understand idea a general election solves Brexit. Almost certainly doesn't unless you get a miracle majority which you likely won't.

Feb 17, 2019 -- 11:09AM, drive for show putt for dough wrote:

An election would be difficult for the main two parties. The new Farage party would stand candidates on a platform of leave means leave and on the other side the greens and liberals would campaign for a second ref. Labour and tories would have to have clear positions and whatever they were would anger some in their party

All these parties are irrelevant to the actual winner though, they can't win, as mafe says it's just a question who they are taking more votes off/thus damaging the most.

That's especially true of Lib Dem. There's no way all remainers just unite under Lib Dem. Lib Dem need rebranding really from the coalition fiasco which damaged them so much. And Farage's new party is only going to appeal to hardline Brexiteers which are still very much a minority, they might go back to around the 4m number of 2015, but it won't go much higher than that, and will pick up minimal seats to show for those votes.

ukkippers are rejoining the tory party trtying to deselect remainers such as boles,souboury, camerons that useless braindead he,s managed to do the complete opposite of what he called the reff for,