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Sorry guys, new to poker
Me 22
Board Flop: 4 spades, 3 spades, 2 clubs
Turn: 3 clubs
Both all in and he flips over A4 clubs
The river comes down a 5 clubs
Whats this % to hit on the river??
Thanks
Me 22
Board Flop: 4 spades, 3 spades, 2 clubs
Turn: 3 clubs
Both all in and he flips over A4 clubs
The river comes down a 5 clubs
Whats this % to hit on the river??
Thanks
Show More
The probability of spiking the 5 of clubs was 1 in 44
Hope this helps
Hope this helps
Of course if a 3 or a 4 comes on the river he wins as well so he had a total of 5 outs.
Of course if a 3 or a 4 comes on the river he wins as well so he had a total of 5 outs.
http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-calculator/texas-holdem
But you can calculate them yourself if you count how many "outs" he has (cards that will improve his hand)
If any 4 or 3 comes he has a higher full house than you while if the 5 clubs comes he has a straight flush. If any club comes along he has a flush but as you already have a full house, the flush is no good for him. So you count his outs, there is 1 x 5c, 2 x 4's (4d & 4h) and 2 x 3's (3d & 3h) left in the deck giving 5 outs in total. You don't count whether those cards may have been dealt to anyone else at the table, you only use the information you have.
There is a simple formula whereby to calculate his odds as a percentage, you multiply his outs by 4 on the flop and by 2 on the turn. As you are at the turn stage you multiply his 5 outs by 2 and you get 10% therefore he is roughly a 10/1 shot to hit the cards he needs. For a more accurate % you subtract 1% from the flop or add 1% on the turn.
In this case as you are at the turn stage so we add 1%. He is 10% + 1% or 11% which is closer to 9/1 to hit. Running the hand through cardplayer and you will see that his actual odds are 11.36% which is pretty close to our calculation.
He got lucky but play this hand enough times and you will win 89% of the time so don't beat yourself over it.
You can use this to work out odds v chips in the middle and use it to work out whether you should call or fold. It was a very difficult concept for me to grasp until 3 years ago but now it's 2nd nature and it will help you win cash in the long run.
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There's my good deed done for the day and it's good to see a few poker threads started instead of the usual Ongaming is riggged posts.
But you can calculate them yourself if you count how many "outs" he has (cards that will improve his hand)
If any 4 or 3 comes he has a higher full house than you while if the 5 clubs comes he has a straight flush. If any club comes along he has a flush but as you already have a full house, the flush is no good for him. So you count his outs, there is 1 x 5c, 2 x 4's (4d & 4h) and 2 x 3's (3d & 3h) left in the deck giving 5 outs in total. You don't count whether those cards may have been dealt to anyone else at the table, you only use the information you have.
There is a simple formula whereby to calculate his odds as a percentage, you multiply his outs by 4 on the flop and by 2 on the turn. As you are at the turn stage you multiply his 5 outs by 2 and you get 10% therefore he is roughly a 10/1 shot to hit the cards he needs. For a more accurate % you subtract 1% from the flop or add 1% on the turn.
In this case as you are at the turn stage so we add 1%. He is 10% + 1% or 11% which is closer to 9/1 to hit. Running the hand through cardplayer and you will see that his actual odds are 11.36% which is pretty close to our calculation.
He got lucky but play this hand enough times and you will win 89% of the time so don't beat yourself over it.
You can use this to work out odds v chips in the middle and use it to work out whether you should call or fold. It was a very difficult concept for me to grasp until 3 years ago but now it's 2nd nature and it will help you win cash in the long run.
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There's my good deed done for the day and it's good to see a few poker threads started instead of the usual Ongaming is riggged posts.
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