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03 Nov 11
21:07
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05 Jun 04
Not trying to be the forum selection Guru; we'll leave that up to orioles and Nilsson. Both do nice write ups with clear explanations about why they pick what they do. Go to orioles blog and Nilsson's site and have a good read.
My goal is not to be the pickmeister, but to help forumulites look at things a different way. Last week New Orleans were bet down on BF to 1.06. The closest they got to the endzone when the score was 0-0 was the 31 yard line. Anyone backing NO under 1.30 in those circumstances shouldn't be allowed to ever bet again
I had a little exchange with orioles and it ended with this ( about Cincinnati ):
orioles • November 1, 2011 12:06 AM GMT
Cedric Benson is a different back to Bernard Scott.
Scott is a quicker back who tends to run outside; Benson is a bigger back who runs first between the tackles. Obviously, match ups against quick defenses and ones with (say) big interior linemen will mean different things to both men.
To say backs are interchangeable is rather like saying all soccer players are the same - it can't be sensible.
Holy cow, how many brain cells were killed in that synopsis orioles ? I said backs are interchangeable, with the exception of 2 or 3, not all football players. All soccer players aren't the same, your inference is silly. When I say interchangeable, I don't a team can lose their starting back and pluck a guy off the street and be OK, I mean his backup can go in and the team will be alright. Believe it or not. Time to really rattle some chains. WR's are interchangeable too except for 10 or 12 of them, and gasp, QB's too. Half of the starting QBs could not play and their team wouldn't be any worse off. My opinion only of course. Here's something else to chew on, a good starting punter is more important then most starting running backs.
Now for the pick. This weeks pick is a bank job. A 2% bet, that's how confident I am. Just a little background to follow for educational purposes.
Green Bay over San Diego. presently about 1.45.
The point spread is around GB -5.5. If SD won on Monday night, the spread would have been about GB - 3.
Rule #1 is always respect the man, the oddsmaker. Why is the spread only 5.5 ? I think it should be about 9. If the line was 9, there would be a flood of money on SD, just for emotional reasons. The books don't want to be too heavy on one side, they want an even book so they set the line low. They always want a balanced book. Most people think lines are always set to get an even book. They usually accomplish that by setting a sick, accurate line. But setting an accurate line in this case wouldn't have worked, so they play to people's emotions.
People are betting San Diego for laughable things ( IMO)
SD are embarrased from Monday night and want to play really hard to make it up. Really ? What a bunch of crap. Norv's job is on the line so SD will crank it up ? Really. Crap, not important. SD are great at home, 3-0 this year. Ttrue, wins over Minny, Miami, KC. Wow. Rivers will try his best to make up for that fumble debecacle. Isn't he trying his best all the time ?
How about Green Bay just had a week off, they're the champs. If Rivers thinks he felt some pass rush pressure on Monday, just wait until he has to face A.J and Clay. Usually Clay lines up on the left side, I predict we'll see him coming from the blind side several times on Sunday. He'll be under tremendous pressure. Do a little research and find out what happens when a QB is under pressure. Do you think GB have anyone in their secondary who knows what to do with a poorly thrown ball ? Look it up. How are the GB running backs and WRs looking. Who cares. Grant Jennings might not play. So ?
It could even be boiled down to it's most basic point. Who is the better team. 7-0 GB or 4-3 SD ? Sometimes that's all you need to ask yourself, when making money line bets.
The bet is GREEN Bay to win, no point spread. Bet them down as far as about 1.40. Although I think there are about 4 points of wiggle room on the spread, I have a cardinal rule of not betting the spread ( except when I'm in Vegas), because I give myself over to a higher power; the head coach. He only wants to win by one point, couldn't care less about the spread. Same goes for the total. If you bet the spread or total, you're saying you're better and/or can out think the coach and oddsmaker, and you have to pay 11/10 for the honour. I'll pass thank you, it's not a fair fight.
Why only bet 2% ? I don't overbet, and besides, this bet could lose. If SD wins, I won't be hurt, won't cry, won't kick the dog etc. This bet is off if Arron R. doesn't go. He is one of the unreplaceable QB's.
Good luck with your bets . Try to keep it simple. Don't waste time wondering the consequences of if this RB playing instead of that one. Let the coach worry about it, he knows 10000 more about the game then me or you.
I'm not going to come back on Monday and glow about my pick or take the flack if it loses. I'm taking a holiday.
My goal is not to be the pickmeister, but to help forumulites look at things a different way. Last week New Orleans were bet down on BF to 1.06. The closest they got to the endzone when the score was 0-0 was the 31 yard line. Anyone backing NO under 1.30 in those circumstances shouldn't be allowed to ever bet again
I had a little exchange with orioles and it ended with this ( about Cincinnati ):
orioles • November 1, 2011 12:06 AM GMT
Cedric Benson is a different back to Bernard Scott.
Scott is a quicker back who tends to run outside; Benson is a bigger back who runs first between the tackles. Obviously, match ups against quick defenses and ones with (say) big interior linemen will mean different things to both men.
To say backs are interchangeable is rather like saying all soccer players are the same - it can't be sensible.
Holy cow, how many brain cells were killed in that synopsis orioles ? I said backs are interchangeable, with the exception of 2 or 3, not all football players. All soccer players aren't the same, your inference is silly. When I say interchangeable, I don't a team can lose their starting back and pluck a guy off the street and be OK, I mean his backup can go in and the team will be alright. Believe it or not. Time to really rattle some chains. WR's are interchangeable too except for 10 or 12 of them, and gasp, QB's too. Half of the starting QBs could not play and their team wouldn't be any worse off. My opinion only of course. Here's something else to chew on, a good starting punter is more important then most starting running backs.
Now for the pick. This weeks pick is a bank job. A 2% bet, that's how confident I am. Just a little background to follow for educational purposes.
Green Bay over San Diego. presently about 1.45.
The point spread is around GB -5.5. If SD won on Monday night, the spread would have been about GB - 3.
Rule #1 is always respect the man, the oddsmaker. Why is the spread only 5.5 ? I think it should be about 9. If the line was 9, there would be a flood of money on SD, just for emotional reasons. The books don't want to be too heavy on one side, they want an even book so they set the line low. They always want a balanced book. Most people think lines are always set to get an even book. They usually accomplish that by setting a sick, accurate line. But setting an accurate line in this case wouldn't have worked, so they play to people's emotions.
People are betting San Diego for laughable things ( IMO)
SD are embarrased from Monday night and want to play really hard to make it up. Really ? What a bunch of crap. Norv's job is on the line so SD will crank it up ? Really. Crap, not important. SD are great at home, 3-0 this year. Ttrue, wins over Minny, Miami, KC. Wow. Rivers will try his best to make up for that fumble debecacle. Isn't he trying his best all the time ?
How about Green Bay just had a week off, they're the champs. If Rivers thinks he felt some pass rush pressure on Monday, just wait until he has to face A.J and Clay. Usually Clay lines up on the left side, I predict we'll see him coming from the blind side several times on Sunday. He'll be under tremendous pressure. Do a little research and find out what happens when a QB is under pressure. Do you think GB have anyone in their secondary who knows what to do with a poorly thrown ball ? Look it up. How are the GB running backs and WRs looking. Who cares. Grant Jennings might not play. So ?
It could even be boiled down to it's most basic point. Who is the better team. 7-0 GB or 4-3 SD ? Sometimes that's all you need to ask yourself, when making money line bets.
The bet is GREEN Bay to win, no point spread. Bet them down as far as about 1.40. Although I think there are about 4 points of wiggle room on the spread, I have a cardinal rule of not betting the spread ( except when I'm in Vegas), because I give myself over to a higher power; the head coach. He only wants to win by one point, couldn't care less about the spread. Same goes for the total. If you bet the spread or total, you're saying you're better and/or can out think the coach and oddsmaker, and you have to pay 11/10 for the honour. I'll pass thank you, it's not a fair fight.
Why only bet 2% ? I don't overbet, and besides, this bet could lose. If SD wins, I won't be hurt, won't cry, won't kick the dog etc. This bet is off if Arron R. doesn't go. He is one of the unreplaceable QB's.
Good luck with your bets . Try to keep it simple. Don't waste time wondering the consequences of if this RB playing instead of that one. Let the coach worry about it, he knows 10000 more about the game then me or you.
I'm not going to come back on Monday and glow about my pick or take the flack if it loses. I'm taking a holiday.
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one possible fly in the ointment is teams coming off their bye week haven't done very well this year.
oops ignore that 
i'm a week behind. the bye week teams cruised it last weekend.
i'm a week behind. the bye week teams cruised it last weekend.
What was I smoking ? To be clear, I bet money line bets, almost always while the game is in play. My selection of GB was just a starting point. Who knows, GB may fumble the opening kick, then Rodgers may get picked on his first pass, and GB might be down 14-0 in the first 2 minutes.
Apologies go to orioles for what looks like a mean dig at him. Orioles bets point spreads, and therefore in that context,he puts thought into some things that I think are unimportant. It's far easier to bet straight up, so my simple approach works best for my method, a more complex approach is needed when making spread and total selections. Who the RB is unimportant in my selections, very important in his. Sorry orioles.
I hardly bet spreads because I think the man has built everything into his line, and his software, information, and algorithms are way more powerful then mine. I don't want to take on the challenge.
Apologies go to orioles for what looks like a mean dig at him. Orioles bets point spreads, and therefore in that context,he puts thought into some things that I think are unimportant. It's far easier to bet straight up, so my simple approach works best for my method, a more complex approach is needed when making spread and total selections. Who the RB is unimportant in my selections, very important in his. Sorry orioles.
I hardly bet spreads because I think the man has built everything into his line, and his software, information, and algorithms are way more powerful then mine. I don't want to take on the challenge.
Hey, no argument here, I'm the village idiot round these parts.
A couple of thoughts though:
Don't waste time wondering the consequences of if this RB playing instead of that one. Let the coach worry about it, he knows 10000 more about the game then me or you.
But if it doesn't matter which back plays, why would the coach worry? Personally, if the HC is worried, I'm going to take the hint.
You should get in touch with Jerry Angelo asap and tell him not to even bother with a franchise tag on Matt Forte. I'm sure he'll buy into your wisdom.
As for QBs and WRs being just as easy to exchange as food stamps at Wal-Mart, I wish you'd reassure Shanny; my Redskins have fallen apart as he swaps in QBs, and Moss going down has destroyed us.
The Vegas books must shudder when they hear you and Moe Green are in town being comped at the Bellagio and preparing to smash into the spreads
I presume you mean you won't return to 'crow', not 'glow', when GB romp home - unless self-immolation is your reaction to two winning bets a year.
Here's hoping you're not eating crow at the weekend.
Good luck.
A couple of thoughts though:
Don't waste time wondering the consequences of if this RB playing instead of that one. Let the coach worry about it, he knows 10000 more about the game then me or you.
But if it doesn't matter which back plays, why would the coach worry? Personally, if the HC is worried, I'm going to take the hint.
You should get in touch with Jerry Angelo asap and tell him not to even bother with a franchise tag on Matt Forte. I'm sure he'll buy into your wisdom.
As for QBs and WRs being just as easy to exchange as food stamps at Wal-Mart, I wish you'd reassure Shanny; my Redskins have fallen apart as he swaps in QBs, and Moss going down has destroyed us.
The Vegas books must shudder when they hear you and Moe Green are in town being comped at the Bellagio and preparing to smash into the spreads
I presume you mean you won't return to 'crow', not 'glow', when GB romp home - unless self-immolation is your reaction to two winning bets a year.
Here's hoping you're not eating crow at the weekend.
Good luck.
thx again still standing you keep it simple good luck this week keep us posted
swimfast. My whole approach to a game is to find what I think is wrong with the line. I don't know how many criteria a spread maker considers, but it must be several hundred. I'll let him do the heavy lifting and accept his number. When the number comes out, some people go back and look at stuff like passing yards vs passing defence. DUH. Don't you think the linemaker considered that ? You must find out why the line is off, what did the linemaker weigh more or less heavily then you did ? It's not hard stats, that's for sure. The only thing I can come up with are non quantifiable things. Like the Cincy-Seattle game last week. Cedric Benson was out. I thought the linemaker gave that way more weight then he should have. I also think he gave more weight to Seattle playing at home. Add it up, I thought the line was too low by 4 points. So I bet Cincy straight up because I felt I was getting a 4 point price on a 8 or 9 point game. I have no way to show that the line was 2 points short for Benson not playing, it's just a feeling. IMO, the only way to beat this game ( and it works for me) is to find the line error, it's always due to emotional stuff by the public. I believe the linemaker knew the game was out by 4 points, but he had to put up the line at -5 to counteract all the stuff he knew was bogus. If someone making a pick can't show you why he thinks the line is out, take a second look. What is the pick based on ? You might as well throw 2 pieces of paper on the ground with the name of 2 teams, and bet on the one that your dog pisses on.
The Bill-Jets game is on Sky, so if I were betting, I'd be betting this one in play. I do believe the line is a bit too low on Buffalo because of the smack down they gave the Skins last week. Bettors saw that and would be more likely to bet the Bills, to counteract that, they set the line lower. I'd say the proper line is pick 'em. That is not enough of a swing to make me bet the Jets on this game. It would be no surprise or upset to me if Buffy won. Therefore, it's a no bet.
I believe the San D - GB line is too low by 4 points. I'm betting it because I'm betting a 9 point game, but getting 5 point prices. I think there are 2 other games which are a bet this week, but I won't say anything. My suggestion to you is to go over each line and ask why it is what it is, disregard anything like yards gained, turnover stats etc, because those are already built into the line. Always keep in mind, the man knows way more then you do.
One more little Still Standing tid bit. Kolb isn't playing for Arizona. The starting QB is out, who cares ? Well, this time I care. Even though Kolb is no world beater, his replacement is unproven. I think Skelton is starting. He was a good college QB, but there's no bet until I can see what he can do in a real live NFL game. How is he going to handle the heat ? St Louis will probably blitz on 6 of the first 10 plays.
orioles. Do you even know what the franchise tag is all about ? Your little dig about Forte is laughable. If you think the tag is given to a teams best player, you're mistaken. It's used to save a team some money. Most players don't want to be on it. I think if you look it up, you'll find more kickers, QBs, DEs, Ols, etc on the list then RBs.
Letting the head coach worry about which back plays was taken the wrong way. I meant the other head coach. Like Cincy playing Seattle. Pete Carroll worried about it this way : "Team, orioles says there's a major difference in who's playing RB for cincy. If Benson gets the ball, let's clog up the middle because apparently he like to run up the middle. If someone else gets it, let's watch the outside." End of meeting. End of worry. Time spent on the other teams RB's, 2 minutes. The cincy meeting was probably similar. "Guys, Cedric's not playing this week, so we'll have to practice a bit more on outside blocking schemes" End of meeting.
As for QBs and WRs being just as easy to exchange as food stamps at Wal-Mart, I wish you'd reassure Shanny; my Redskins have fallen apart as he swaps in QBs, and Moss going down has destroyed us.
I never said that at all, you're just a real dandy at telling other people what they said. Anyway, Grossman, Beck, who cares.
And no, I won't glow in the light of my winning GB pick. I won't eat crow either if they lose. What I will do is when I read your blog, I'll be asking why you think the line is wrong.
The Bill-Jets game is on Sky, so if I were betting, I'd be betting this one in play. I do believe the line is a bit too low on Buffalo because of the smack down they gave the Skins last week. Bettors saw that and would be more likely to bet the Bills, to counteract that, they set the line lower. I'd say the proper line is pick 'em. That is not enough of a swing to make me bet the Jets on this game. It would be no surprise or upset to me if Buffy won. Therefore, it's a no bet.
I believe the San D - GB line is too low by 4 points. I'm betting it because I'm betting a 9 point game, but getting 5 point prices. I think there are 2 other games which are a bet this week, but I won't say anything. My suggestion to you is to go over each line and ask why it is what it is, disregard anything like yards gained, turnover stats etc, because those are already built into the line. Always keep in mind, the man knows way more then you do.
One more little Still Standing tid bit. Kolb isn't playing for Arizona. The starting QB is out, who cares ? Well, this time I care. Even though Kolb is no world beater, his replacement is unproven. I think Skelton is starting. He was a good college QB, but there's no bet until I can see what he can do in a real live NFL game. How is he going to handle the heat ? St Louis will probably blitz on 6 of the first 10 plays.
orioles. Do you even know what the franchise tag is all about ? Your little dig about Forte is laughable. If you think the tag is given to a teams best player, you're mistaken. It's used to save a team some money. Most players don't want to be on it. I think if you look it up, you'll find more kickers, QBs, DEs, Ols, etc on the list then RBs.
Letting the head coach worry about which back plays was taken the wrong way. I meant the other head coach. Like Cincy playing Seattle. Pete Carroll worried about it this way : "Team, orioles says there's a major difference in who's playing RB for cincy. If Benson gets the ball, let's clog up the middle because apparently he like to run up the middle. If someone else gets it, let's watch the outside." End of meeting. End of worry. Time spent on the other teams RB's, 2 minutes. The cincy meeting was probably similar. "Guys, Cedric's not playing this week, so we'll have to practice a bit more on outside blocking schemes" End of meeting.
As for QBs and WRs being just as easy to exchange as food stamps at Wal-Mart, I wish you'd reassure Shanny; my Redskins have fallen apart as he swaps in QBs, and Moss going down has destroyed us.
I never said that at all, you're just a real dandy at telling other people what they said. Anyway, Grossman, Beck, who cares.
And no, I won't glow in the light of my winning GB pick. I won't eat crow either if they lose. What I will do is when I read your blog, I'll be asking why you think the line is wrong.
Green Bay over San Diego. presently about 1.45.
The point spread is around GB -5.5. If SD won on Monday night, the spread would have been about GB - 3.
dont be so fecking silly..win or lose it would of been the same...why would the spread be different if they had won? they lost through a freak incident.
The point spread is around GB -5.5. If SD won on Monday night, the spread would have been about GB - 3.
dont be so fecking silly..win or lose it would of been the same...why would the spread be different if they had won? they lost through a freak incident.
your knowledge is ace will look at the arizona game as well thx
swimfast. Not sure about the Arizona game. I got my QBs mixed up. If Skelton is going, he did make a few starts in 2010, so he's probably capable. I was mixing him up with Bartle, who's almost totally green. The spread now is about Arizona -3. What would the spread be if Kolb was starting ? I'd guess about -6. Is Kolb worth 3 points more vs Skelton ? Usually I'd say no on a QB switch like this and bet Arizona, because you'd only have to give up 3 points instead of 6, but not this time, because Skelton's capablity isn't too clear yet. Too tough to call for me. Good luck on your bets this weekend.
Goodness, that is one big steaming pile of consciousness!
A word to the wise, SS; there are people on here (and I'm not talking about me) who know a very great deal about football and how to bet on it and as the good book almost has it, it's better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to speak out and remove all doubt.
I'm a great example of that at least! I'd suggest posts like yours above do you no favours.
As for the substantive element, I hardly know where to begin.
So I won't
Be lucky.
A word to the wise, SS; there are people on here (and I'm not talking about me) who know a very great deal about football and how to bet on it and as the good book almost has it, it's better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to speak out and remove all doubt.
I'm a great example of that at least! I'd suggest posts like yours above do you no favours.
As for the substantive element, I hardly know where to begin.
So I won't
Be lucky.
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