2012 Flat Season - Notebook Selections

Amis Reunis 0.5pt EW @ 25-1 bog, PP, 3.20Y

Lady Sledmere 0.5pt EW @ 10-1 bog, PP/baldy, 3.20Y

Yikes , there are some speculative ones there, even by this thread's standards!

16 'guesses' yesterday and not a sausage! No such woe for Saint Hugh - 2 picks and 2 winners. Class!

13 points squandered today...er, sorry, staked!

FREEFALL!

It's official. I've gone on a soul-destroying losing streak and confidence is draining away.

What to do? Well it's either give up or carry on and hope to re-discover my mojo!

Lady Sledmere 0.5pt EW @ 10-1 bog, PP/baldy, 3.20Y
Amis Reunis 0.5pt EW @ 25-1 bog, PP, 3.20Y....4th
Mark Anthony 0.5pt EW @ 10-1 bog, PP, 5.20Y
Taizong 0.5pt EW @ 10-1 bog, 365/BS/vic, 4.50Y
Beach Candy 0.5pt EW @ 33-1, Sky', 4.20Y
Black Douglas 0.5pt EW @ 16-1 bog, vic, 4.20Y
Garmelow Girl 0.5pt EW @ 20-1 bg, gen', 2.50Y
For Shia And Lula 0.5pt EW @ 25-1 bog, gen', 5.00L
Desert Strike 0.5pt EW @ 33-1 bog, BS / WH, 5.00L
Amazon Twilight 0.5pt EW @ 25-1, JoeC, 4.30L
Don Eduardo 0.5pt EW @ 22-1, SJ / Spo'bet, 3.00L
Young Jackie 0.5pt EW @ 25-1 bog, gen', 2.00L

Since Thread Started (April 11th)

Early Price / ISP: +373.72
Betfair SP: +308.68

1pt level stake at Betfair SP:

Win: +199.51 (116/1234 9%)
Place: +117.41 (381/1234 31%)

5% commission deducted from all winning bets

George, nobody could begrudge you packing up early after a superb Flat season for yourself. Keep the powder dry and come back fresh next season with all guns blazing.

Thanks for those words of wisdom, WP. A man's gotta know his limitations (as Dirty Harry once said) and know when to fold 'em (was that Kenny Rogers?).
It's been a long old season for some of us and rather than go on too long and blow a chunk of the thread's profits in the dying embers of the season, I'll call time on the thread on Saturday.
Then at least if I'm going to bow out on a shocker, I'd rather do it on the better quality stuff!

Tough few days Gerge hope you turn it around on Saturday ...Good Luck  ....

Cheers, Virgin. I'm gonna to keep going until Saturday, rather than just Saturday. Hopefully I'll avoid doing too much damage in the remaining 4 days!

Poisson D'or 1pt EW @ 20-1 bog, 365, 4.45N

Monsieur Roussac 1pt win @ 17-2 bog, vic, 5.20N
Rainbow Beauty 1pt EW @ 25-1 bog, BS / vic, 5.20N

Lightning Spirit 0.5pt EW @ 16-1 bog, vic, 5.50K
Cairanne 0.5pt EW @ 16-1 bog, vic, 5.50K

Portmonarch 0.5pt EW @ 12-1 bog, gen', 6.50K

Quality-looking sort and you can see why he cost a small fortune; more promise lto and dam's side of the pedigree offers hope he'll like the poly'; but hang on, 3rd run for a mark and we know this stable like to get one ready off a nice mark, eh?

Will watch with interest!

Everleigh 0.5pt EW @ 8-1 bog, vic + PP, 7.50K
Claude Greenwood 0.5pt EW @ 33-1 bog, gen, 7.50K
Causeway Foot 0.5pt EW @ 25-1 bog, gen, 7.50K

My Kingdom 0.5pt EW @ 20-1 bog, 365/BS, 8.50K
Good Authority 0.5pt EW @ 20-1 bog, 365/BF/PP, 8.50K

Paradise Spectre 0.5pt EW @ 20-1 bog, 365/BS, 9.20K
Great Expectations 0.5pt EW @ 20-1 bog, baldy+billy, 9.20K

Hexagonal 0.5pt EW @ 14-1 bog, 365/BS/WH, 1.35N

Jackemil 1pt EW @ 12-1 bog, 365, 3.45N
Edith Cowan 0.5pt EW @ 8-1 bog, 365/pp/baldy, 3.45N

Lady Imola 0.5pt EW @ 14-1 bog, BS, 4.15N
Salacious Sally 0.5pt EW @ 14-1 bog, gen', 4.15N

Jackemil wd Gerge

Have I missed any other winners

Thanks Virgin. Think that snaps a losing run of about 258 for the thread.

That was just the second race as far as the thread is concerned, first selection dropped out the back of the telly.

Good Luck with the others then .....

Lightning Spirit DH place wd Gerge

Virgin, I was sick cos she didn't get a place outright after looking sure to (traded 1.01), but then after watching the replay and seeing what went on behind, realised I was lucky to get joint-3rd!

1.01 unlucky Gerge

Portmonarch place wd

Fair play, I did wonder if Portmonarch would be a 'project', but he got a proper ride, but was no match for the first 2, with the winner doing well to win after blowing the start.

Not too much damage at ISP / bog prices with about 3 points lost, but 9 points were lost at BFSP.

Lady Imola 0.5pt EW @ 14-1 bog, BS, 4.15N
Salacious Sally 0.5pt EW @ 14-1 bog, gen', 4.15N
Jackemil 1pt EW @ 12-1 bog, 365, 3.45N.....1st 10pR4
Edith Cowan 0.5pt EW @ 8-1 bog, 365/pp/baldy, 3.45N
Hexagonal 0.5pt EW @ 14-1 bog, 365/BS/WH, 1.35N
Paradise Spectre 0.5pt EW @ 20-1 bog, 365/BS, 9.20K
Great Expectations 0.5pt EW @ 20-1 bog, baldy+billy, 9.20K
My Kingdom 0.5pt EW @ 20-1 bog, 365/BS, 8.50K
Good Authority 0.5pt EW @ 20-1 bog, 365/BF/PP, 8.50K
Everleigh 0.5pt EW @ 8-1 bog, vic + PP, 7.50K
Claude Greenwood 0.5pt EW @ 33-1 bog, gen, 7.50K
Causeway Foot 0.5pt EW @ 25-1 bog, gen, 7.50K
Portmonarch 0.5pt EW @ 12-1 bog, gen', 6.50K.....3rd
Lightning Spirit 0.5pt EW @ 16-1 bog, vic, 5.50K...DH 3rd
Cairanne 0.5pt EW @ 16-1 bog, vic, 5.50K
Monsieur Roussac 1pt win @ 17-2 bog, vic, 5.20N
Rainbow Beauty 1pt EW @ 25-1 bog, BS / vic, 5.20N
Poisson D'or 1pt EW @ 20-1 bog, 365, 4.45N

Since Thread Started (April 11th)

Early Price / ISP: +370.88
Betfair SP: +299.61

1pt level stake at Betfair SP:

Win: +187.64 (117/1252 9%)
Place: +110.29 (386/1252 31%)

5% commission deducted from all winning bets

First of today's guesses...

Maz 0.5pt EW @ 10-1 bog, gen', 2.00S

Princess Hollow 0.5pt EW @ 25-1 bog, PP, 2.30S

Littlesuzie 0.5pt EW @ 12-1 bog, PP, 3.35S

Made In The Shade 0.5pt EW @ 16-1 bog, 365, 3.35S

Honoured 0.5pt EW @ 16-1 bog, baldy, 4.40S
Rayvin Black 0.5pt EW @ 16-1 bog, BS, 4.40S

Well Bank 0.5pt EW @ 25-1 bog, billy, 5.10S
Military Green 0.5pt EW @ 12-1 bog, WH/vic/baldy, 5.10S

Bamurru 0.5pt EW @ 14-1 bog, gen', 5.40W

Amba 0.5pt EW @ 14-1 bog, gen, 6.10W
Ssafa 0.5pt EW @ 20-1 bog, gen', 6.10W

Chant 0.5pt EW @ 14-1 bog, gen', 6.40W
Baltic Sea 0.5pt EW @ 50-1 bog, gen', 6.40W

Parley 0.5pt EW @ 20-1 bog, BS, 7.10W
The Noble Ord 0.5pt EW @ 33-1 bog, BS, 7.10W
Voice From Above 0.5pt EW @ 50-1 bog, BS, 7.10W

Buster Brown 0.5pt EW @ 14-1 bog, BS, 7.40W
Silke Top 0.5pt EW @ 16-1 bog, gen', 7.40W

Namwahjobo 0.5pt EW @ 20-1 bog, 365/BS/WH, 8.10W
Swendab 0.5pt EW @ 25-1 bog, BS, 8.10W

Lucky Mark 0.5pt EW @ 9-1 bog, BS/PP/WH, 8.40W
Winnetou 0.5pt EW @ 80-1, bog, BS, 8.40W

Bashama 0.5pt EW @ 33-1 bog, WH/BF/BS, 9.10W
Vhujon 0.5pt EW @ 14-1 bog, WH, 9.10W

Honoured wd place Gerge

Chant place wd Gerge

Cheers, Virgin, but my end of season shocker is continuing, save the odd place.

If I do this this thread again next season (which I won't be), I must remember to quit on Arc day

Hindsight is a barstard

Winnetou 4th unlucky Gerge  7 Ibs on made all the difference 

wd place with Lucky Mark though

Jockey change weren't it? Think James Doyle took over. Not much hope for the horse if he can't get past Peak Storm, imo.

That's the thing about this great game of ours - just when you think things can't possibly get any worse, they usually do!

Another SHOCKER unfortunately, with around 19 points lost.

Just 2 more days of this misery left. I was going to say - let's hope I can get through them without doing too much damage - but let's not tempt fate, eh?

Since Thread Started (April 11th)

Early Price / ISP: +352.58
Betfair SP: +281.09

1pt level stake at Betfair SP:

Win: +163.64 (117/1276 9%)
Place: +97.23 (389/1276 30%)

5% commission deducted from all winning bets

Curl 1pt EW @ 18-1, JoeC, 2.10D
Spirit Of Success 1pt EW @ 8-1 bog, gen', 2.10D

Intent 1pt EW @ 22-1, SJ & JoeC, 4.00N
The Giving Tree 1pt EW @ 9-1 bog, vic + billy, 4.00N

Caitlin 0.5pt EW @ 33-1 bog, baldy, 4.00N

Almail 0.5pt EW @ 40-1 bog, billy/365, 6.40W
Broughton Sands 0.5pt EW @ 25-1 bog, BS, 6.40W

Rythmic 1pt EW @ 6-1 bog, billies, 7.10W

Oddball 0.5pt EW @ 16-1 bog, 365/BF/WH, 7.40W
Desert Cougar 0.5pt EW @ 14-1 bog, BS, 7.40W

New Magic 0.5pt EW @ 16-1 bog, 365/wh/bf, 6.00D

Diamond Daze 0.5pt EW @ 10-1 bog, 365/WH, 6.30D
Alpha And Omega 0.5pt EW @ 18-1 bog, vic, 6.30D

Bensoon 0.5pt EW @ 16-1 bog, vic, 9.00D
Tight Times 0.5pt EW @ 33-1 bog, gen', 9.00D

Devotion 1pt EW @ 17-2 bog, vic, 6.00D

well done Gerge places @ Dundalk and a winner @ Wolves

Cheers, Virgin. Think I managed to chisel out a tiny profit on the day, which given how things have gone recently, is a bit of a result!

A little respite from a poor run of form with a tiny profit of 4 points on the day.

Devotion 1pt EW @ 17-2 bog, vic, 6.00D...2nd
Bensoon 0.5pt EW @ 16-1 bog, vic, 9.00D......2nd
Tight Times 0.5pt EW @ 33-1 bog, gen', 9.00D
Diamond Daze 0.5pt EW @ 10-1 bog, 365/WH, 6.30D....3rd
Alpha And Omega 0.5pt EW @ 18-1 bog, vic, 6.30D
New Magic 0.5pt EW @ 16-1 bog, 365/wh/bf, 6.00D
Oddball 0.5pt EW @ 16-1 bog, 365/BF/WH, 7.40W
Desert Cougar 0.5pt EW @ 14-1 bog, BS, 7.40W
Rythmic 1pt EW @ 6-1 bog, billies, 7.10W......WON@8-1
Almail 0.5pt EW @ 40-1 bog, billy/365, 6.40W
Intent 1pt EW @ 22-1, SJ & JoeC, 4.00N......3rd
The Giving Tree 1pt EW @ 9-1 bog, vic + billy, 4.00N
Curl 1pt EW @ 18-1, JoeC, 2.10D
Spirit Of Success 1pt EW @ 8-1 bog, gen', 2.10D

Since Thread Started (April 11th)

Early Price / ISP: +356.93
Betfair SP: +284.88

1pt level stake at Betfair SP:

Win: +159.83 (118/1290 9%)
Place: +100.99 (394/1290 30%)

5% commission deducted from all winning bets

Al's Memory 1pt EW @ 20-1, JoeC, 1.25D

Royal Peculiar 0.5pt EW @ 22-1 bog, 365, 2.00D

Mirlo Blanco 0.5pt EW @ 25-1 bog, baldy/vic/pp, 3.35D

Hasopop 0.5pt EW @ 16-1 bog, 365/vic/pp, 2.15N

Tameen 0.5pt EW @ 20-1 bog, 365/BS, 3.45N

Dare To Dream 0.5pt EW @ 14-1 bog, vic, 4.20N
Dreamwriter 0.5pt EW @ 50-1 bog, 365/vic/pp, 4.20N

Ice Nelly 1pt EW @ 12-1 bog, PP, 4.55N

Regulation 1pt EW @ 12-1 bog, baldy/pp/wh, 4.25L

Morning GEORGE, havn`t looked in for a while now, glad to see you`re still in profit. I was struggling this week until Thunderball went in yesterday, luckily it was one of my naps too.

Some interesting ones you`ve selected today, might look at backing a couple e/w. Good luck.

Red Senor 0.5pt EW @ 11-1 bog, billies, 6.45W
Topflight Princess 0.5pt EW @ 16-1 gen', 6.45W

Morning, Shane. The thread has been in dire form, tbh, too many selections and too many specualtive ones since it passed the 400 profit marker. Strike rate had been very consistent at 11% win and 33% place, but has dropped recently to 9% and 30%.
But mustn't grumble, guess I would have taken 100 points profit at the start of the thread!

Gabrial The Duke 0.5pt EW @ 25-1 bog, baldy, 7.45W
Pairumani Prince 0.5pt EW @ 14-1 bog, BS/BF, 7.45W

One Way Or Another 1pt EW @ 12-1 bog, BS, 8.15W
Berengar 0.5pt EW @ 20-1 gen, bog, 8.15W

District Attorney 1pt EW @ 12-1 bog, 365/pp/bs, 9.15W
Chella Thriller 1pt EW @ 14-1 bog, gen', 9.15W

Kyleakin Lass 0.5pt EW @ 16-1 bog, 365/wh, 2.30D
Jamaican Bolt 0.5pt EW @ 11-1 bog, vic, 2.30D

Good Luck today George on what might be the final day for the thread

Hope you can bust that 400 point barrier again and retire a great thread on a high note

Cheers, Virgin. Yes, today is the last day, not much point going on for what's left of the season, especially given the poor recent form.

I optimistically thought I may be in with a shout of reaching 500 after passing the 400 mark, but in the end it's gone the other way and I'm struggling to finish above 350. I knew it would end in tears!

Plenty of highs along the way though, especially Glorious Goodwood week and a number of decent-priced winners at some of the other major meetings.

Just remember the good ones

I was listening to the 'gospel' according to Saint Tom on the Moaning Line, and he says betting should always be fun.

So yes, I'm gonna conveniently forget about all the absolute shockers and say it's been 'fun'!

Couldn`t argue with betting should always be fun, emotional at times though

There`s a couple you put up at Wolves which i backed earlier, think i`ll slap another fiver on them both.

One Way Or Another & Red Senor

Well Done on the places today Gerge a few others weren't far away at juicy prices ....  Good Luck in the final race of the thread Gerge

It's been a blast

4 seconds on the day, Virgin, and maybe One Way Or Another was a tad unlucky, but another losing day unfortunately.

There's always next year, eh?

Hope you had them EW, Shane

Sadly a losing day to end the thread, with about 14 points lost.

End of Thread Summary


Since Thread Started (April 11th)

Early Price / ISP: +343.69
Betfair SP: +270.91

1pt level stake at Betfair SP:

Win: +140.83 (118/1309 9%)
Place: +95.98 (398/1309 30%)

5% commission deducted from all winning bets

Thought you would have a grand finale, George. Was a huge task that you set yourself so very well done for keeping this going for so long.

George winning favourites are hard enough to find let alone outsiders. Well done

No GEORGE, win only last night, ah well that`s racing.

Great thread by the way, see you in the AW comp

Cheers tippu, Billposter & Shane.

Suppose I would have taken any profit when I set out at the start of the season, so can't grumble at +270 at BFSP after commission.

And the 'wise guys' will tell you that the more you bet the more likely you are to lose, so luckily the season has ended before I could prove them right!

Don't know if I'll be doing the thread again next season, tbh, but if I do, lessons learnt on this thread will hopefully be put to good use.

The main change would be to limit the number of selections to a maximum of 6 / day, and I'd also keep three P+L totals - at the BOG prices / BFSP & Industry SP.

GEORGE, although I never took advantage of your most excellent tipping this year

I most certainly will next year if only you will base profit and loss on industry

SP with no commission deductions, if your followers gain extra by beating the SP

or BOG so much the better.  Have a pleasant Winter and look forward to you coming

back next season. Cheers.

Congrats on profit. What did you learn?

Thanks for your kind words, wee eck.

RE: P+L at ISP - I'd be happy to post it, especially as I'll be interested to know myself!

As above though, would settle at all 3 if I do the thread again.

roadrunner46 -

Not to select at under 6-1 - I cost the thread several points profit by doing so.

Have far fewer EW bets and only consider going EW at 12-1+

Less dutching

Doing this sort of thread is quite time consuming, particularly when doing write-ups for the selections, so need to be more time efficient than I was this season. Though lmiting selections to 6 will obviously help.

Rather than more or less operating at level stakes, make sure the stronger fancies have more points on them.

I already know all that, number 6 on my check list of 10
price 5/1 to 25/1 unless its a fav. most importantly
Another break is always just around the corner.
Goodluck next season

"bleep - bleep" ........