It Pays To Lay In Play

My CIMB selections as promised.

As the European Tour heads this week to Shanghai, well, guess what, the PGA Tour is in Malaysia for the CIMB Classic !

Oh , how the world of golf has changed and is changing, more events in Asia to suit the sponsors, empty looking courses, feral dogs and a new digger for a hole in one !

Notwithstanding that and just like the European Tour Event, there is a super line up of all the best players, other than those who are in Shanghai and you do have to wonder what the wisdom is in having competing events in a similar time zone.

Politics to one side, my thoughts for the week are as follows;

Regular followers will know that I rarely, if ever, in recent times at least, bet on Tiger Woods, indeed, I have laid him a few times on final rounds. I still feel that Tiger struggles these days to have the steel eyed focus he once had, is not as hot with the putter and has at least a few holes at every event where he simply swing too hard at the ball. On the flip side, he can still hit the mercurial shots and his play around the green can be breathtaking. He carries an almost ambassadorial role at the CIMB Classic and the organisers see Tiger as a flag bearer for the future relationships with US Professional Golfers.

He will want to put on a show here this week and of course he family ties to this part of the world too, I just have a hunch that he will hit the ground running this week when many players are winding down for the season, at 4.4 he is short, but expect him to lead after the first two rounds and then you can trade if you feel inclined.

Many backers felt that Bo Van Pelt would come out second best to Jason Dufner last week, of course they were wrong and although the big guy beat a handful of decent players, the rest of the field was made up of local surfers and barbeque salesman. Bo has however enjoyed a great year on the PGA Tour and was a whisker away from a Ryder Cup spot, expect to see him at Gleneagles in 2014. I fancy Bo can keep the bandwagon rolling here and at 9.4 with Betfair he is fair value as the form horse.

Until I saw Tommy Gainey play, I described the swing of Ricky Barnes as "agricultural" now I see it as a thing of beauty ! Ricky is every inch your football playing college boy, but he is much more than that and he can play a bit too. Top three in a US Open tells you he can play and I like the fact that unlike most of his PGA colleagues, he has travelled the world to learn his trade. He will really enjoy the course set up here this week and he represents a great value bet for me at a huge 170 with Betfair.

If you thought I went deep to find Ricky Barnes then you will be delighted that for my final selection I am looking at Betfair odds of 680 for my selection, its non other than the new Indian sensation Anirban Lahiri. Move over Jeev , there is a new kid on the block! Some of you may recall the hole in one from Lahiri at this years Open at Royal Lytham. What you may have overlooked was that he finished just outside the top ten after being firmly in contention for the first three days. He hits long and straight and has a very tidy swing, he also looks like he believes he belongs in this company and he is a main Tour winner waiting to happen. Of course its speculative but why not and at 680 we can have some fun for a small outlay.

Keep an eye on Mo Siddikur, he sports a turban to play and is ultra solid, his putting restricts the birdie count, but he ball strikes as good as the next guy, he might surprise a few this week at silly prices.

The big talking point at this weeks HSBC Champions event is the non appearance from the new lovebirds, Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods. The relationship has blossomed between the pair in the last 18 months and perhaps Tiger views Rory as his worthy successor, I would be surprised if Woods was not instrumental in nudging Rory towards the speculative $150 million , ten year deal with Nike. The WGC are less than pleased that the new Batman and Robin of golf have decided to body swerve their event and HSBC must be smarting too, when the biggest names are missing, TV audiences shrink, especially in the case of US TV when when Woods is absent, the fall in viewers can often be in the region of 50%.

Even without the dynamic duo, the HSBC field has a quality look about it, shame that we will be peering through the haze of a smog filled atmosphere at a half empty course and with yellow coloured rough making the whole scene something that golf should be seeking to avoid, but, the future promised land of China is too big an opportunity for the greed of golf to neglect.

McIlroy complained last week that the air quality was so poor that by the end of his round, his head was thumping, perhaps Betfair can open a market about which player will be the first to adorn a pollution mask ! What a great image for golf in China that would be, having said that, it would be a super opportunity for a new sponsor logo.

Off my soapbox and back to the golf betting and I have to say that there are some decent prices about this week due to the depth of the field this week.

Phil Mickelson has won this HSBC event twice before and unlike many of the other players, he is very well rested after a long campaign. He finished the regular season of with some good performances and his 2nd in the BMW was notable. I always think Phil plays best when fresh and his natural talent can over come any rust in his game, besides, this is an event he firmly targets and at 23 on Betfair, he is very good value.

Luke Donald crept into the frame last week over a course that in theory suited the bombers, it looked to me that his game was just coming to the boil and I see him as a real threat over this Olazabal track. The former world number one has decided to avoid playing the Disney next week so, he will be keen to register a win here. Betfair have the Englishman at a tasty 11.5 and I have taken some of that.

Its always fun to back a player who has a similar body shape as yourself and in my case that has to be Shane Lowry ! Lardy Lowry is one of the few players to land a professional tour event whilst still holding amateur status, he achieved this when landing the Irish Open following which he turned pro. He won again a couple of weeks ago in Portugal , his first victory a pro and followed that with a top 5 at the BMW, almost as impressive as his win given the quality of the line up. You may be surprised to learn that Lowry now holds the highest world ranking of any Irish player, currently 57th ( Harrington is 59th ) and he is on a charge that can see him make it into the top 20, his game is that good. Betfair have the lumpy lad at 70 perhaps a bit shorter than I would have liked, but a fair price nonetheless.

Branden Grace has shown what a top player he is with victories throughout the 2012 campaign. When he starts well in an event then he is a real danger and the HSBC with so many Americans in the field would give young Mr Grace an ideal opportunity to announce himself on the world stage. He is fresh, confident and has no real weaknesses in his game and so long as he can retain the belief that he belongs in this kind of company, he can put a stamp on this season by landing his first World Golf Championship event. I have taken the 60 on offer with Betfair.

The seniors have a big event this week in the shape of the Charles Schwab Cup and I have been told that the game of Jay Don Blake is razor sharp for this, so had a wee interest.

golfdaft very good post i agree with you on donald looked like his game was good last week and is a good putter, which you will need to be round this course. have noticed lowry to in last few weeks playing with confidence but maybe tucking in to much food on his recent wealth. and phil never seem to get him right has won this event so worth a dabble and trade out. good luck for the weekend.

At the time of posting, the Barclays Singapore Open has fairly poor liquidity at less than £100k matched in the winners market on Betfair, so be aware that there may be some large price fluctuations.

Last week we had some great trading off the back of Shane Lowry and big Phil and of course in the USA Seniors event with my inspired Jay Don Blake who led on day one and then finished top 3.

We need more of the same this week but I think its a tricky event and with Rory fresh off the back of his new $250 million, ten year deal with Nike, he will want to get another win under his belt before he tries to master Nike clubs and balls at the turn of the year. The young boy from Holywood in Northern Ireland will play a reduced schedule next year and he is well rested for this having turned over Tiger last Monday in a one off exhibition match from which it is said that both players shared £1.6 million, not a bad days work !

I like the look of Rory this week and I am told he is "up" winning this and feels relaxed and focused this week, he must be a strong bet on that basis and even at 5.8 on Betfair, he is a must bet for.

Phil Mickelson should have won last week, from tee to green he was unreal and his 3 eagles was the best stat of any player all week. He is using a new prototype Callaway 3 wood that goes as far as his previous driver, but with all the control of a fairway wood. The result is that Phil is hitting far more fairways than usual and his confidence is high, if he can get the putter working early, he can run away from everyone other than Rory and he is a must each way bet this week, at 12.5 on Betfair, he is a great price and simply cant be out of the top five.

Richard Sterne missed deal of time through injury and when he got going in the second part of the year, there were signs that he still has the game to win events and possibly even a major. Irrespective of how he plays this week, expect him to win during the South African swing and back in Europe in 2013. At 230 on Betfair he is a tasty price, even if I cant see him closing out the deal with Phil and Rory on the field. He could of course be a great back to lay proposition, especially if he can load up in the first round, fingers crossed.

I am sure I have the winner already selected so its to another outsider that I look for some real value and a trading opportunity, this time its the Indian golfer Shiv Kapur. He isn't long, but you don't need to be around this track, hits plenty of greens and when the putter is hot he can shot low, really low and of course he not afraid to go ahead and win, at 220 he is a fair speculative wager.

I nearly included Anriban Lahiri, a top young Indian and at 550, he is an obscene price.

US Tour to follow

The Children's Network Classic is wide open, which means if you are having a bet, then there is some decent value out there.

My first selection is a South African, Trevor Immelman, one time Masters champion and hero worshiper of Gary Player, who, incidentally reached the ripe old age of 77 this week and celebrated by doing 5000 sit ups.

Trevor has had so many injuries, he could be forgiven for losing some of his faith as he has rarely been 100% fit since that amazing green jacket performance.

He is very upbeat about his game, is a super ball striker and on his day can roll his rock, I have long fancied that he may pick up a back end even and this could see Trev back in the big time, he has the game to win that's for sure. At 90 with Betfair in a field devoid of class, he is fair each way bet.

I honestly never saw me having a wager on Tim Herron, but "Lumpy" as he is affectionately known on tour has had a late season revival in form and he caught my eye in two of his last three events. This course will set up well for him and he is bang there in confidence and when in the mood he can sizzle, I really like the look of Tim this week and have taken the 110 on Betfair.

Chris Kirk flew under the radar at the recent CIMB Classic, his third round 63 put him well into the mix and I was pleased to see him follow up with a very solid 67, finishing tied 4th alongside the Tiger. Kirk has flattered to deceive a few times but he does have the game to win and his profile is strong. He is pretty short at 38 with Betfair but I like what I see and I have a had a decent punt on him and see him being bang there on the last day.

Kevin Chappell is another American player who can go low. This time last year he finished 3rd in this very event and was the whole field was snapped up by an unstoppable final day charge from Luke Donald. Chappell is looking good in practice and the word from his team is that he is ready to win this week, at 130 on Betfair, he represents real value and I am on.

It's the UBS Hong Kong Open at the Hong Kong Golf Club and this should provide a super winner takes all betting opportunity this week.

I am salivating at the prospect of a late season win for the new holder of the PGA and European money lists, take a bow, Rory McIlroy.

The young superstar of world golf is a handful of shots better then the rest when he turns the tap on. He is well rested, played great in the final round last week and must be backed in the win only Betfair market and carries my maximum confidence. I am already on at 3.6, it looks short, but it will give a welcome pre Christmas bonus.

My new Twitter mate Andres Hansen showed some decent form at last week but has in many respects had a largely disappointing season by his standards. At times he has looked out of love with the game and with frustration boiling up just beneath the surface, he needs to shed the cross face and relax. I believe he is confident about building on his recent showing and he still has time to bag an end of season win that would be a brilliant platform for next season. At 34 with Betfair he rates a fair price.

My bigger priced each way bets for the week are both Indians. Shiv Kapur will enjoy this much shorter course and he was just off the pace last week and at 180 on Betfair he is a huge price and well worth a speculative punt, especially if you, like me, are looking for a fast start and then the chance to bag profit with a trade.

I also like the look of fellow countryman and a real star of the future Gaganjeet Bhullar. the youngster grabbed over 100k Euro in his last two events, The Barclays and the HSBC and he has a game that the top pro`s are beginning to take notice of. At 70 on Betfair, he is a fair price and he has the game and confidence to hang around the leaderboard until the very end, of course, increasing trading opportunities.

The 2012 South African Open is jammed packed with home grown talent and although its the German Ryder Cup hero, Martin Kaymer who heads most betting lists, I can't honestly see beyond a South African winner.

Golf in South Africa has moved from strength to strength and there are many reasons to attribute this rapid growth to. Last week the legend that is Gary Player reached his 77th birthday and most South African professionals recognise the debt owed to Gary for helping golf in South Africa grow into the world powerhouse it is now becoming. A word too for the mercurial Mr Johann Rupert, the charismatic and passionate owner of Dunhill and significant commercial supporter of South African golf at all levels. He more than most, must be eyeing the current failings of the European tour with some interest and with a view to enhancing his own influence when strength and co-operation with China and the PGA Tour has never been more important.

This years event is at the Serengeti Golf Club and over a course designed by Jack Nicklaus should provide another spectacular visual feast of golf and big game as the track is slap bang in the game reserve. Home based Hennie Otto was a popular if largely a surprise winner in 2011, but, it's to a fellow countryman of Otto that I turn to for my first selection. Thomas Aiken came to my attention as a betting proposition at Tom Watson`s Turnberry Open, the unknown South African was a huge price and we had him top ten, he actually had a real chance to get in the mix on the final day, but stumbled over the final three holes. He is a wonderful "feel" player and clearly gets the maximum from his life, especially away from the course, if only this guy could be persuaded to give golf his undivided attention, he would be a Major winner for sure.

You need to catch Aiken on the right week from a betting perspective and he has warmed up for this nicely, he finished 3rd here last year, take the hint, he would love to bag this title and has never been better prepared. I am on with Betfair at 25 and that looks terrific value.

We had a run with Richard Sterne last week and with cobwebs blown away, he really should feature this week. Injury has robbed him during the last couple of seasons and at the very moment that he was arriving on the world stage. Many of his colleagues have left him behind in recent years, Charl, Louis, Branden and Ernie, but Sterne has a real talent and once he finds the confidence with the putter, he can go low and win tournaments. He is 38 with Betfair which is plenty short enough, but I like his chances and fancy he will be in the mix come Sunday.

There is a lack of depth to the field this week with so many competing events around the world and there is a player here who many of his fellow senior professionals have earmarked as a future star, he is taking his time to come to the boil, but finished inside the top ten here last year, its Garth Mulroy. The youngster has been learning his trade in the USA, but is back home this week and he loves this track, at 30 with Betfair he is a decent each way bet and expect him to be close to the lead over the first two days, leaving a nice trading option if inclined.

At 320 with Betfair, Lyle Rowe might seem a speculative bet and I guess you would be correct in assuming that. But, this kid has form and rich memories from playing over this course last year where he struggled over the weekend after sitting one shot behind halfway leader Retief Goosen. He will be wiser this time and at a silly price, he may give a great lay opportunity.

The long awaited DP World Tour Championship from Dubai is finally upon us and what a star studded field we have for the showpiece event of the European Tour season.

Because of the strength of the field, it is easy to make a case out for a good dozen players, but in this instance, I am very happy with my selections.

I made an error of judgement last week when advising a win bet on McIlroy, he double bogeyed the last to make certain he missed the cut when a bogey would have seen him play another 36 holes. Sceptics might suggest that Rory fancied a couple of extra days of rest and who am I to argue with that.

When the vibes in the McIlroy camp suggest he is fully focussed for an event, he usually delivers and my contacts in Dubai ( enjoying the famous pre tournament beach barbecue ) told me earlier today that there is maximum confidence at team McIlroy and that is the signal for a major bet for me. The wonderkid from Holywood in Northern Ireland can cap a magnificent season at a venue he enjoys and at 7.6 on Betfair, I take McIlroy to stroll home by at least 3 shots.

As regular followers will be aware, I tend to look for larger prices and value in an attempt to create the perfect circumstances to trade out, its a tactic that has worked well all year and again provided a nice profit last week with Anders Hansen ( now following me on Twitter ) got himself right in contention before falling away.

My Dubai contacts tell me that Westwood looks magnificent and is very well rested and above all, determined to finish a frustrating year off in style. Remember, Westwood will be PGA Tour bound next year, has moved his family from his home in Worksop and most recently, ended his long standing partnership with caddy Billy Foster. One thing in Westwood's favour, is his strength of mind and the Englishman will be desperate to show that he will not be hindered on the course, by the acrimony surrounding his dismissal of the unfortunate Foster. This was a purely business decision by Westwood and expect it to be business as usual in Dubai. I expect Lee to contend and only lose out to a rampant Rory, at 15.5 on Betfair, he is a potentially potent trade and I have also backed him in the top five market at 4 on Betfair.

I was never really an Ian Pouter fan, his sometimes surly attitude is not up my street and I prefer golf to be conducted without the need to resort to football style antics, having said that, I truly respect his guts, passion and determination, all qualities he showed during the Ryder Cup where he provided the inspiration from which his team mates subsequently drew. It has been a surprise to me that Poulter had kicked on from the Medinah Miracle, winning one event and contending in others, indeed he was runner up to Adam Scott last week in the Australian Masters. He is a player in form, enjoys Dubai and loves the greens here, I expect him to content and he is like a dog with a bone. If he gets a flyer on day one, we can expect him to be around until deep on Sunday, at 16 he is good value and like Westwood, I have backed him at 4 for a top 5 and also at 2.1 for a top ten.

The Ryder Cup has also worked the oracle with German Martin Kaymer, he too has looked a new player and all of a sudden his game and above all his putting, seems to have belief once again. Kaymer is a lover of Dubai and of course has been victorious here in the past, I like his chances to place highly again this week and the Betfair price of 17.5 is about right. The German has my money for top five (4.6 ) and top 10 ( 2.4 ), I expect a solid return on these investments.

For some extra fun, I have also backed all of the above plus Luke Donald  in 4 folds and an accumulator, to win their respective 2 balls on day one and Westwood for top English at 3.5.

For the brave, take a look at Stenson and Slattery for the first day lead and take first five paces if your able.

Delighted with the start for my boys, only Poulter letting the side down, Rory will stroll home, who will be second ?

Great to see Rafa back in management, "Chelsea are a very big cloob no" ? Boy have I missed Rafa.

Clattenberg not guilty and what a disgrace that he was ever called by Chelsea and worse still by the idiot who formed the "Association of Black Lawyers" who reported Clattenberg to the MET. Lets hope that he is fined for wasting Police time. Meantime, I might create the Association of  Fat White Lawyers, wonder well received that might be ?

I have it on good authority from friends in Dubai, that the non Board staff of the European Tour are all set for a mutiny. They know that in two years time, there will be no European Tour as we know it, the top talent has now all shifted to the USA, only Paul Lawrie of the winning Ryder Cup team will remain in Europe. Just digest that for a moment and consider just how quickly we have arrived at that position, unreal.

The pink champagne drinking, back slapping European Tour Board members are completely out of touch with the reality facing European Golf. They thought that they were better, stronger and more sustainable than the PGA Tour and got it sadly wrong. We lost four events this year, the calendar for next year has many gaps as we speak and there are more European Tour events in Asia than here in the UK, so what is that about?

My sources tell me that there are some big hitters in South African golf who are also now casting an eye at the PGA Tour as a potential partner, dropping the sterile and inefective team from Wentworth, who could blame them. Also take note that the PGA Tour have negotiated at least two full field events for Asia next year and have opened a new office in Kuala Lumpur, close enough to integrate fully with Asia and China in particular, as always, the public school boys from Wentworth have missed the boat.

I know of at least 4 bookmakers who have almost begged to sponsor events within Europe, but the answer has always been no, and why is that ? Er, well, the boys in Dubai would not approve of gambling. In which case, why not move the European Tour HQ from Wentworth to Dubai ? After all, it seems like they are making the decisions !

The European Tour should be viewed as a business, the main shareholders have been leaving in their droves to play in the USA and if either BMW or Rolex ever decide to pull the plug, then the Trilby Tour might be our best option !! Its a joke, the Board are a joke and Dubai need to back off and let the bookmaker money flood into golf, if not, we face the big black hole.

The mutiny being preached by the second tier of management soon after the bigwigs retired to bed after the bbq party in Dubai is probably nothing more than bravado, shame really, because its time for change and quickly.

You have sauces?masc

I like sauce and I do have sources.

The Nedbank 2012

Fresh off the back of a great week with McIlroy delivering the goods in Dubai, this is a time of year when we look to make some really strong profits and this weeks select field at The Nedbank looks a license to print money.

Many of the usual faces are missing, Goosen and Els are a big loss and the field is headed by previous winner, Lee Westwood, who it has to be said had a poor Dubai. I know that Westwood is something of a standing dish around here, but with so much happening in his life right now, its tough to see how he can be 100% focussed for this. A house move from Worksop to Florida, a new caddy after the sacking of Billy Foster and a change of coach, there really isn't much more that a golfer can face in his life and I think it may be a wise move to leave Westwood until he shows some real form in the New Year before we play with him again, indeed I may lay him to be outside the top 3 once the Betfair market has formed on Wednesday.

Down to business and I am looking for a home winner, my two against the field are Louis Oosthuizen and Charl Schwartzel, both will carry maximum support from a partisan crown and both will see the Nedbank as a key finishing event for them. I hold the view that the majority of the remainder of the field will view this event as a chance for a family holiday, with dad being occupied for a few hours in the middle of the day.

Oosthuizen has had a terrific year, the albatross at Augusta seems like an eternity ago and he could and should have landed the green jacket, only a miraculous escape from Bubba Watson denied him. His golf game is very solid and with a greens in regulation in excess of 80% that part of his game is unmatched by any other player, length helps at Sun City and Louis in long too. A good putting week with see the the man from Mosel Bay take this in his stride and at 6 with Betfair, he looks a terrific bet.

Charl Schwartzel has slowly built momentum during the 2012 season and oddly, the very putting that underpinned his Masters win, has been missing during the season. His ball striking looked back to its very best for most of the DP Championship and I fancy he will contend in his own back yard his week. Betfair have Schwartzel at a tempting 8.2 and I am on nice and early.

The preview for Tigers event will be posted here on Tuesday morning.

golfdaft are you mascherino?

What ??

The World Challenge

Tiger Woods has become something of a standing dish when playing in his own event each year at the Thousand Oaks course at Sherwood in California and the prices for this years event reflect this with Woods as low as 3.9 with Betfair and the remainder of the field bigger than 14.5.

Woods of course is well rested after his Ryder Cup setback and although many of the old fashioned professional gamblers will fancy a wager on him, I am looking elsewhere for my value. The current betting for Tiger is reflecting a time when he was dominant in the game and this week, I expect him to contend, but not win and I maintain, he is poor value at under 4.

Remember, this is a restricted, invitation only line up and there are some top players who have been here before and several who have solid form too. The key to this event is to play solid for four rounds and the winning score is often around the -10 mark so its consistency and accuracy that will win the day.

One of the success stories for the US Team at Medinah was Zach Johnson, the bible puncher is a real terrier and he has looked good in patches this season and of course has played well here at this event in the past. I think his game is very suited to a course where length is not the major factor and accuracy can be rewarded as it should be, that makes Johnson a contender this week and at 18 with Betfair, he represents terrific value.

I also like the look of Bo Van Pelt, no other player has progressed as he has and at last he has added self belief to a super golf game, he may be long from the tee, but he is also far stronger in his all round game than often he is given credit for. He featured throughout 2012 and I am looking to him to give us one last strong betting opportunity. Betfair have the big guy at 18, I suspect he mat drift to nearer 20 when there is greater liquidity in the market and he is my second selection.

One sadness for me this week is that both the this event and the Nedbank in South Africa which are invitation only and restricted field events, are able to provide players with world ranking points, what a joke!

dont matter..dont get excited

its an odd one , points for these limited fields

tiger picked up 44 points for the world challenge
and westwood picked up 38 for last years nedbank

Hold a private event, non sanctioned, limited field and tell the tour you want ranking points, thats about it I believe. What a shambles.

Very close last week and at least we bagged a nice each way double with BVP in the US and Louis at the Nedbank, decent profits from laying Westwood and Tiger as advised too.

The Mandela tips and review is below, other events to follow.

Its back in South Africa again this week for the Nelson Mandela Championship, played at the magnificent Royal Durban Golf Club.

Don't be looking any further than the home based players, South African`s top the early betting and I cant see anything other than local boys filling the top places this week.

Number one on my list is the revelation of the 2012 season, Branden Grace. He is without doubt a streaky player, when he gets a sniff, he delivers, only 5 top fives all year, but four tournament wins. This tells you all you need to know. The word I have is that he fancies this big time, loves the course and expects to perform to his very best and he is aware that if he were to become a five time winner on the European Tour, then he would be creating his own little bit of history and what better place to achieve it than his own back yard.

Betfair have Grace at an amazing 9.6, a fabulous price and I am playing up some of my ew double from last week with Oosthuizen and Van Pelt, I suggest you do the same.

I also like the look of Tim Clarke, note I refer to him as Tim Clarke, not the patronising "Timmy Clarke" heard from the lips of so many commentators worldwide. If Mr Clarke were a foot taller, nobody would ever refer to him as Timmy and I would be a happier man ! He is super player and injury has robbed him of his best golf in the last two years, but make no mistake, his game is strong and he would love nothing better than winning once again on home soil, take the hint and take a piece of the 21 on offer with Betfair and maybe a wee touch on him for 1st round leader.

We also picked up winnings last week on laying Westwood and Tiger to be unplaced so with your pockets bulging, you can cover all selections this week and my third choice is Richard Sterne. The we man has plenty of length, flushes his irons and if he can regain the putting touch that saw him enter the worlds elite a couple of years ago and before his injury, he can win here and again in mainland Europe in 2013. Sterne sits at a mouth-watering 40 on Betfair and I have taken that.

I was tempted to run with Garth Mulroy, his management team are certain that he can become a big time player, but yet again at the Nedbank he looked short on confidence in the strongest of company. This field has less class but I want to see Mulroy compete with consistent=y before I part with cash on him. My last bet is an outsider and it is little known Bryce Easton. Early Betfair market has the youngster at 200, I expect you will achieve far bigger prices nearer the event start time on Thursday. Easton won his first two pro events on the Sunshine Tour and he also played his junior and intermediate golf over this very course, he has form, has confidence and is a potential talent who might make the grade on the main tour. He should give us a real run for our money and nice back to lay proposition.

Thailand Golf Championship

Lee Westwood looked well out of sorts at the Nedbank last week and way off the form him lift that event in the previous two years. His off course distractions have been well documented, especially by me and I would wish to see the son of Worksop compete on the final day in a mainstream event before getting serious with him again. However, Westwood absolutely rules in Thailand and in Asia in general and he is lovingly known as Mr Wee.

This years event has a very decent field and it will be no pushover for Westwood, but he is a worthy favourite and I have to back him by virtue of his Asian dominance in recent times. He often scorches off to a stellar start in Asia too so with any luck, he will contract in price after the first day and provide a lay opportunity for those like insurance. At 6.6 on Betfair its about as big a price you can expect for Westy, the boy from Florida !

The true local hero in the field is Thongchai Jaidee. The ex military man has found some late season form on the European Tour and on home soil, with expectation high and on greens about as grainy as its possible to get the Thai can get himself in the mix and at 25 with Betfair he is a reasonable price, he may drift further by Thursday.

Indian golfer, Anirban Lahiri is not an obvious selection for most people, but, believe me this guy can play. You may recall he was in the top ten at Royal Lytham and only fell out of contention over the back nine, he also made a hole in one at his first Open. He is a super ball striker and may be the new top Indian to hit the heights and take over form JM Singh. Lahiri is still beneath the radar with most bookmakers and I fancy he will be in the winners enclosure before too long. He can start fast here and give us a back to lay proposition, especially as he can hang around the top of the leader board well into the final day, the current price of 130 on Betfair will lengthen so look to back him late on Wednesday when he should be 30 points bigger.

His fellow countryman, Gaganjeet Bhullar has thrilled the crowds this season and he too looks a real talent. He is currently half the price of Lahiri but still represents value. He will relish the course and the hot and steamy conditions, I have taken the 65 with Betfair and will back him again if he drifts before the off.

Palmers gettin lazy Golddaft, he's nicked 2 of yours!

BTW, Ishikawa to get me the turkey money this week.

thanks for this thread golfdaft, some good stuff on here

I post mega early and Palmer has no shame !!

For once the rain issues in Durban may be to my advantage. The short course, now par 65 should suit Tim Clark. Wecan trade out at a current 4 but I may hang around for a while yet.

This will be the tenth successive year that the Dunhill has been played at the outstanding Leopard Creek Golf Course and what reward the organisers have had this year with so many of the top South African players turning out ahead of their Christmas break.

The stellar field is headed by last weeks runaway winner, Charl Schwartzel. He blitzed his way to an amazing 11 shot romp and he looks a worthy favourite. Although I am a fan of Charl, I cant help thinking that he must be running on empty now and the travel of his last few weeks must surely catch up with him, despite this being a course where he has played well in the past.

Louis looks plenty short enough too and I am looking deeper into the field for better value and some tasty trading opportunities.

First up is a player who can drive you nuts!! Its Pablo Larrazabal. The Spaniard has been pleased with his own progress up the world rankings during 2012 and he has a truly feverish and engaging approach to the game, this can result in some very streaky play, but when he is hot, he is certainly hot. One of his very good friends, Pablo Martin, won this event in 2010 and followed up again in 2011 and nothing would please Larrazabal more than to grab this prize, before he heads home to take in a few Barcelona home games. Larrazabal is currently around 48 with Betfair and that looks decent early value to me.

In the same way that Larrazabal can frustrate from a betting perspective, a similar comment can be applied to Thomas Aiken. The South African has a real talent, he is long enough from the tee, has really active hands, hence he does well over the links and of course he can be mercurial on the greens when he is in the zone. He is also part of a what is a truly formidable South African line up, I am pretty sure that their top 12 players could give the European Ryder Cup team a run for their money. Due to the quality of the field this week, Thomas is a great price with Betfair and at 28 he is fair value.

George Coetzee is recognised in the game as a winner waiting to happen. There are times that he looks to have startled himself when reaching the top of the leaderboard, but all young players require an education and not many have the game that George has. A win in his home country would be a real tonic and I have always felt that once he wins one, he can go on and win multiple times on tour. At 18 on Betfair he is not generously priced but has a super chance here at a venue he loves.

We had a nice result with Tim Clark last week as first round leader and I fancy a similar flutter on a real outsider, Bryce Easton. At 330 on Betfair, the youngster is a sure-fire winner for the future and with his early tee time and a rapid start, he might just provide us with a real trading opportunity. I will also take a wee bit of the 150 for 1st round leader, remember, Easton is out very early on Thursday so lets hope he can post a decent target.

Happy New Year everybody and best of luck for the year ahead with your golf betting.

Apologies for the late and short post for the first event of the year, back to normal next week when we have two events to get stuck into.

In short, I have had two wagers in the Hyundai. A decent each way bet on Ryan Moore, since he moved away from the shirt and tie set up his game blossomed in the second part of last year and I have for the last three years, been waiting for him to shine at the highest level. He has a quality game and his amateur wins are well known to most golf followers. Expect him to kick on this year and I hope to a flying start this week, I had a wedge on at William Hill earlier today at 18/1.

My second wager in this restricted field event was on another American, Bill Haas. In many ways Haas suffered in 2012 trying to carry the burden of landing the massive Fedex Cup bonus from the previous season. He is a smart, wise and genuine guy and I anticipate that he will move his career to the next level in 2013 and 2014, expect to see him in the USA team for the next Ryder Cup at Gleneagles, he is that good. Generally available at around 22/1 or better in places, I think he is a solid each way with most firms going first 4 and quarter the odds a place.

Good luck and looking forward to getting up to full speed from next week.

The European Tour gets underway in earnest in 2013 with a restricted field event, the Volvo Golf Champions, played over the stunning layout at the Durban Country Club.

Branden Grace showed that he was going to be a force to be reckoned with when he edged out South African legends Ernie Els and Retief Goosen in a play off in this curtain raiser in 2012. Goosen has missed a deal of golf through a back injury and although reports are that he is now fully fit and ready to compete again, I would be looking to see him get some competitive rounds under his belt before investing. Branden Grace was a revelation last year, when he was good, he was very good, on other weeks he was truly awful, his turbulent golf still delivered four tour wins and that makes him a marked man in 2013. I just fancy that defending and all the media hype that goes with it might take its toll on a young player still finding his true level in the game.

I do see Grace a potential Major winner in future years, but for this week, I will be passing over him from a betting perspective.

The other member of that 2012 play off trio was Ernie Els and I fancy that the Big Easy will be a real force to be reckoned with in the early part of 2013 and anticipate a few wagers on him through to the gulf swing. Else took time out last year at the back end, is well rested and my inside line is that he has never been more enthused at the start of a new year of golf. We all know that Ernie has the game, if his head is right then he will always be a danger, I expect him to win this week and at 7.6 with Betfair, that seems a fair price, I am on.

Big hitting bad boy Nicolas Colsaerts missed out on that 2012 play off by a single shot, he likes the track at Durban and his game has progressed hugely since the start of 2012, his performances at Medinah has identified him as a man on a mission and expect him to win more than once this year. When he putts well he contends and with a far more professional attitude towards his chosen profession, its hard to see him not contending this week. At 23 on Betfair he is over priced and don't forget there are top 4 and top 10 markets too this week, despite the restricted field. For instance, you can get 2.0 on Colsaerts for a top 10 finish and 5.5 for a top 4, both seem very generous to me.

I know that the team around Paul Casey are all very upbeat about his chances and he is finally recovered from his injury nightmare of the last couple of years. He is a class player and will win this season, he could also be a decent Masters pick, but more of that in a few weeks. I will be watching Casey with interest but still want to see him contend strongly before getting involved.

My third pick this week is another multiple winner form 2012, Bernd Weisberger. The Austrian is a very confident young player and his victories last year have given him the comfort of knowing that he can get the job done when the pressure is on, that means everything to a pro golfer and at 50 on Betfair, he is a lovely price for a speculative bet. I have also had a small punt on him and Colsaerts to be first round leader.

Louis Oosthuizen will be all the rage this week after a super season in 2012, who will ever forget his magical albatross at Augusta when eventually losing to that wonder shot from Bubba ? He is just too short for me, I am referring to his odds, not his physical stature !

My final investment this week will rest with another star of the future, Thorbjorn Olesen. Skinny at 25 with Betfair, nonetheless a real talent and earmarked as a future Major winner by the likes of fellow Dane Thomas Bjorn. Olesen came of age in 2012 and his ambition of playing with Tiger was realised at the Open where the young Dane outscored his more illustrious playing partner. He will continue to grow in the game and he will already have the Ryder Cup team at Gleneagles in 2014 as one of his targets. He has a great work ethic and a playful personality, a great combination for a top golf pro.

Be aware that Durban has more than its fair share of rain since September and the course will play longer than usual and with more rain forecast into the weekend, there is an outside chance a another shortened event, so staying in touch with the news is important and trading out may become vital if the weather forecasters are accurate.

USA selection will be updated this evening before 8pm

How do you know Colsaerts love this course ?

sauces

Eddie makes a good point.

I am not aware that Colsaerts has played this course before, but maybe he has.

Eddie - His caddie told another caddie who told me, pretty simple really.

My Sony Open selections

Last weeks event in Kapalua was restricted to 54 holes and we are all hoping for much better weather for this weeks Sony Open also held in Hawaii. Dustin Johnson grabbed all the headlines as he breezed to an easy win ahead of veteran Steve Stricker, many of the remainder of the 30 man field struggled with the ferocious winds and driving rain.

The first full field of the event is always something to look forward to as we have a number of bright eyed and bushy tailed Q School graduates, old veterans who have been working out over the holiday break and of course the guys who played last week and should have blown the cobwebs away already.

I tend to feel that the guys who did well last week may struggle to deliver this week, purely because it was such a long and tiring week in Kapalua last week due to the numerous weather delays and of course a Tuesday finish too. Having said that, I rather like the look of a man who seems to be improving as each season progresses, Swede, Carl Pettersson. He impressed me in 2012 and manage a level of consistency that most players can only dream of, he also anticipates a strong start to the season and this is a course that should suit his game too. He is pretty short in the lists but this shows what a serious threat he is these days and even at 23 with Betfair he ranks as my primary investment this week.

As I said earlier, the course at Honolulu is light years away from last weeks set up at Kapalua, the wide fairways and the biggest greens on tour are replaced with tight tee shots and small putting surfaces, length is no help here and that why my second selection is my old mate, Tim Clark. the South African is now injury free and played well in his native country at the end of last year, indeed he traded around 1.6 during that final round before falling away after a late triple bogey. I am told that he is looking to make up for lost time and anticipates a strong showing both here and in the early season in general.

The bookmakers have taken note already and he is a pretty short 28 with Betfair, but his chances are obvious and I am already on.


Mark Wilson will never draw the biggest crowds at any golf event, a polite and gentle kind of guy, he simply goes about his business and his business is making money from playing golf. Wilson plays well in Hawaii, he plays well in early season and he plays well on tight and short courses. His stats make you feel that he must be a contender this week, especially after a decent showing in Kapalua last week. Wilson is a tempting 65 and I have also had a wee bit on him as first round leader.

My final pick is a player who despite being inside the worlds top 50 in the official rankings, still moves beneath the radar in betting terms and although he has a big hitting game, he can control his ball as well as most. I am talking about Scott Piercy. His purple patch in 2012 saw him land the Canadian Open a week after he finished third in the John Deere. He then ended his year with a superb runner up spot in the WGC - HSBC Champions, which marked as more than a one season wonder. His confidence is now sky high and with a very early tee time here, he can get us into a trading position with a quick start. He is at 36 on Betfair and that a fair shout.

Good luck with you betting and lets hope we have some success to celebrate on Sunday evening.

Loving this start, Piercy backed at 36 and trading at 10, sweet, great start for Ernie too,bring it home boys.

The Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship at the Abu Dhabi Golf Club has a real classy look about it, for the most part its due to the appearances of Tiger and Rory, along with some other marquee names. The madness of professional golf has appearance fund 4 times the size of the total prize purse this week and that's why the big boys are in town.

Tiger likes it here, but I don't see him winning and will be looking to lay him in both the winners and top 5 markets. Rory is a truly exceptional golfer, but surely, even the wonder kid from Holywood cant win first time out playing his new Nike clubs ? Its a watching brief for me with Rory this week.

Early season punting on golf is always tricky, there is no form to work on and players enjoy the festive break to varying degrees, also throw in the rookie factor and it makes betting hazardous to say the least, however, I remain very comfortable with my selections this week and fully expect decent returns for my investments.

My main bet will be the Ryder Cup winning putt maker, Martin Kaymer. Having won three times around here already, the German is something of a standing dish around here and now that he has recovered his full confidence after messing about with his swing for a couple of years, he will contend for the Majors this year.

My only slight worry is that Kaymer is drawn with Tiger and Rory, the circus that accompanies these two will be bigger than ever and Kaymer will need to show true mental strength in order to remain completely focused on his own task, I think he has the credentials to achieve this. At 10.5 with Betfair, he is a fair price and given his record here, you cant argue with that.

Englishman, Paul Casey is brimming with confidence right now, his long road to full fitness has finally been completed and he has stated that he feels like he is ready to win again, can he do it this week, I am not so sure. I will be backing Casey this season and soon, but in a line up like this, there is better value and more in form players.

Branden Grace won four European Tour events last season, an amazing achievement and he has an all round game to match the best. Once he masters the art of consistency, the South African can fill the boots of the likes of Els and Goosen, true legends of the game. Grace impressed me last week after a very sluggish start in the Volvo Champions event at Royal Durban. He got better and better as the event unfolded and showed a welcome desire to battle hard in order to achieve a high finish, an attitude I was delighted to witness. Grace is a quietly confident player and with the breeze up in Abu Dhabi and likely to impact the play, his links background should provide a further advantage. At 46 with Betfair, he is a truly huge price and I have had a decent ew bet on him.

Young Englishman Danny Willett tends to divide opinion, can he really make the grade ? I see similarities in him and Jamie Donaldson and it will be interesting to see who progresses further between the pair. I fancy both will land many more European Tour events and 2013 should see them both register wins. This week I like the look of the ex York Golf Club youngster Danny Willett. He put up a very decent show last week in Durban and with very different conditions in Abu Dhabi, I expect to see him in the shake up. He carries no lack of confidence and in this regard is like a young Paul Casey, you need that when you tee it up with likes of Rory and Tiger. Willett has a nice morning / afternoon split and at 80 on Betfair, he represents truly excellent value.

At the highest level, top golfers rely heavily on confidence and this of course only arrives when ball striking and performances are good. The big Swede, Henrik Stenson, steadily recovered his form during 2012 and most in the game were delighted to see him contending again. Stenson completely lost his way having previously been one of the brightest lights in world golf. He is determined to reach the top once again and in the second part of last year, he played golf with both a smile and an enthusiasm that had been missing in the previous three seasons, the Swede is back. he briefly held the lead in the Masters in 2012 and only a disaster at the 18th robbed him of being first round leader. His ball striking was crisp and with an aggressive approach and putting stroke, he can tear courses apart and he enjoys playing in a part of the world that was once his home.

I expect him to contend this week and to win at least once this season and feature in the Masters. At 34 with Betfair he could be a longer price, but having won again last season, I guess its fair.

My mad outsider this week is the Indian golfer, Jeev Milkha Singh, at around the 400 mark on Betfair I have had a small win and pace bet, he often crops up when least expected and if the wind continues to blow, we may see a dizzy result.

Much of the attention in Abu Dhabi surrounds the decision and announcement over the next European Ryder Cup Captain and given that its a committee made up of players, be assured that McGinley will get the job.

Humana tips to follow this evening

The Humana Challenge 2013

The Humana Challenge was always played over 5 rounds previously and you need to be aware that it also has a pro am element. Older punters may remember it was this event in which a rather larger David Duval managed his closing eagle to deliver a stunning 59.

The three courses being used are all par 72 and with favourable weather forecast, high temperatures and relatively short courses, the winning score will be in excess of -20.

For a few seasons now I have been watching the progress of Chris Kirk, a big hitter with plenty of game, in some respects, he has been slow to come to the boil, but last week in Hawaii showed me that 2013 will be his breakthrough year. Kirk finished tied 5th last week in the Sony Open and his three eagles eclipsed the field. He has played well in the Humana, finishing 7th in 2011 showing a liking for the format and he was looking poised last year when just three shots off the lead at halfway, only to fall back over the weekend. Every aspect of his game will be suited by these courses and his easy manner lends itself to the pro am format. I really like his chances this week and at 48 with Betfair, it seems like the bookies have taken note too.

Last weeks rookie winner, Russell Henley put up a truly exceptional performance. He lead early and end held his nerve, at no time did he look like he would fail to deliver the Sony Open and his ball striking and all round play was commendable. He his 60 greens in regulation and topped the putting stats, his very aggressive game marks him down as a real threat again this week and the Betfair price of 48 may seem like a real bargain come the weekend.

The key to desert golf is to stay aggressive, the reachable par 5`s allow for plenty of birdie and eagle opportunities and the younger players on tour will have no fear, especially after seeing Henley win so comprehensively last week in Waialai.

Matt Kuchar players well with the sun on his back and he has also performed well in this event in previous years, I distinctly remember when he tied 2nd in 2010 when he should have won the event, laying up to a par 5 he could have easily reached and losing the momentum he had previously created. He is well rested and raring to get back on the winners trail in 2013. I fancy with such a strong game across all departments, Kuch can feature this week. A Shorty around 18 s, nonetheless, he should not be out of the top 5.

Many of the professional tipsters will be siding with Harris English, I like his game and his attitude, but he is not for me this week. I was tempted to leave out my old pal, Bo Van Pelt, but I simply cant, certainly not simply n the basis of four relatively poor years in this very event. His power game is ideal for the Humana and besides, he is far better player now than at this time last season and carries a belief about his game that was absent back then. Confidence and belief are everything to a top golfer and remember, BVP was regular dish towards the end of 2012. I really fancy he will show strong this week and will be having a very decent bet on him.

Nice first day in both events and I will be backing Kaymer to eclipse Rory and Tiger again in his 3 ball.

The Commercial Bank Qatar Masters in Doha, continues the desert swing as the European Tour builds a head of steam through January. Many of the players who contested last weeks event in Abu Dhabi will be on display, major absentees are Rory, Tiger and last weeks winner, Jamie Donaldson.

Scotsman Paul Lawrie is looking to become the first player to win this event three times, after becoming a two time winner last year. With it being Burns Night on Friday, Lawrie would make a fitting winner, but I fear that he peaked last year with a massive season long effort to make the Ryder Cup Team. I will be looking to lay Lawrie to fall outside the top five and top ten.

Two key things to remember this week, firstly, the event begins on Wednesday, not Thursday and secondly, benign conditions over a relatively short course, will favour players who have accuracy as a part of their armoury.

Doha is pretty flat, has several water hazards and some very strong par three`s, there are also a number of dog leg holes so accuracy from the tee is a real bonus here.

Bearing all of the above in mind, my first selection is a young Italian golfer who is currently top of the driving accuracy stats and also features high in scrambling too, perfect credentials for this course. Matteo Manassero is already a seasoned European Tour winner and he showed that his game is in great shape with a very strong finish last week in Abu Dhabi. The course and general conditions will be far more suitable for his game and I expect him to figure here and at current odds of around the 50/1 mark, he looks outstanding value to me.

Those with Celtic heritage will be kilted up for Burns Night on Friday, so it would be fitting if a Scot could make a play this week, having ruled out Paul Lawrie from my equation, I am looking to invest on Richie Ramsey. A former world number one amateur, his ball striking and accuracy is top drawer and if he gets the flat stick working, then he contends, its that simple. He also played well last week and with a premium on accuracy at Doha, he should be in with a terrific shout and with so many top players in the field, we have some nice value on him at 65 with Betfair currently.

Anders Hansen had a poor year in 2012 by his own high standards, a two time PGA winner and a man who has a game admired by his peers, at times he openly showed great frustration on the course, to the extent that his attitude adversely affected his finishing position in several events. There were signs late in 2012 that he was returning to his best and his very steady play at Abu Dhabi was lovely to see. My contacts on the tour tell me that Anders gave himself a serious dressing down in the off season and consequently, he is more determined than ever to re establish himself as a major factor on the European Tour.

Nice to see that he has begun the year as number one in scrambling and his driving accuracy is notable too, Doha is made for his game and he has finished top ten here in recent times, I truly believe that he will win in the next few weeks and at 60 with Betfair, again, that represents decent value.

My final bet is another player who is unlikely to ever overpower a course, its the "waggler" Jason Dufner. The American has become a firm fans favourite on the PGA Tour and as a multiple winner in the last couple of seasons and a Ryder Cup player of some note, he is increasingly becoming a player to watch in the world game. His accuracy from the tee and his greens in regulation, identify him as a shortlist candidate and he knows how to get it done when the hammer is down. He featured in Abu Dhabi and with more time to acclimatise in Doha, I see a strong showing from the "charismatic" Dufner and 19 with  Betfair is about right.

There will be plenty of support for Justin Rose and I can understand that, but he looked flat on the final day and it strikes me that he has had plenty enough golf in the past few months. Oosthuizen is a worthy favourite after yet another win in his home country recently, when he landed the Volvo Champions in Durban, but his form in recent times at Doha is not that of a winner and I will pass on him too on that basis.

Farmers selections will be posted on Tuesday

Good Luck.

Farmers Insurance Open 2013 preview is below.

The Farmers Insurance Open 2013 sees the return of Tiger Woods to the US PGA Tour after his missed cut alongside Rory McIlroy in Dubai. Though I anticipate a better showing from Tiger this week, his game looks a few weeks away from allowing him to contend and win an event.

I have a number of long priced speculative bets this week and if any can be in contention, we should have some great trading opportunities at the very least.

First up for me is a golfer who has frustrated over the years, its Charles Howell 111. A real power game with crisp iron play has often been marred by poor approach play in the short irons, with distance control being a real issue, but 2013 has shown a new Charles Howell. He has been in contention twice already and has looked far more composed and in control than in previous years and maybe, just maybe, we will now see CH perform with a consistency and at a level that his fellow professionals believe he should be. Our man was just outside the top 40 in this event in 2012 but I fancy with a renewed confidence, he can contend this week and at odds of around 30/1, he is decent value.

South Korean, Sang Moon Bae started 2012 with a bang and he has started in similar fashion in 2013. He played very well last week in the Humana and he is primed for another good week at very long odds. I backed him in the Farmers last season and he was right  the mix entering the final day, only to struggle to a 78 ( +6 ) but still finished on -6 for the week. A level par round would have seen him finish in a tie for fourth and I have no doubt that the experience he gained in 2012 will provide the platform from which he can press ahead and register a PGA Tour win and join the likes of KJ Choi as a South Korean winner. Betfair have him on the 180 mark and I fancy that this is way over priced and I am on.

Accuracy and putting are vital around the Torrey Pines track and length can actually work against a player, a rare situation for the PGA Tour. Last year, the tidy game of Jimmy Walker saw him deliver a very solid 72 holes, eventually finishing in a tie for 8th, he has begun 2013 in great shape and I think he may be another who can register a win in 2013, maybe it will be here. Again, Betfair look attractive with odds of 70 for Walker and that's good enough to tempt me.

My final selection is an even bigger price, I did say this was a very speculative week for me ! Bryce Molder really struggles to get across the winning line, but, if you back players on the basis that you are looking to trade out in order to return a profit, rather than hang on and hope for that victory, then he is an attractive potential betting proposition. His game is perfectly suited to Torrey Pines and he has expressed a real love of the course, he also finished top 13 in this last year so he has course form. Betfair have him at 220 right now and I have backed him, as I have the others, on the basis that they can contend early and afford me a trade out option.

Should be an interesting week and no doubt, one or tow of the rookies may also have an early say in what should be a "watching " event over a super course test.

Delighted with the start from Anders Hansen and have backed Manassero again at the current 60 on Betfair

Apologies for the late post, everything running behind schedule this week. I have not had time to compile my rational for the selections, however, my picks are below.

Omega Dubai Desert Classic

Matteo Manassero 38
Seung Yul Noh 50
Richie Ramsey 85
Henrik Stenson 14.5

Waste Management Phoenix Open

Aaron Baddeley 60
Jason Day 42
Ryan Moore 85
Casey Wittenberg 300

Good Luck

The Africa Open


Last week we, like many others, had a decent bet on Richard Sterne, I also had a decent each way on Thomas Aiken and Justin Walters and the latter two tee it up again this week.

In may respects it would be daft to ignore Aiken, the bookmakers favourite at 11 with Betfair, but I much prefer backing him at longer odds in better class fields. Thomas has boundless talent but still throws in far too many doubles and triples, but when he gets it right, he is as good as any of his South African counterparts, his 5 birdies in the last six holes last week, benchmarked what he is capable of. I will have a small win saver on Aiken this week.

My main bet will be on Portuguese sensation, Ricardo Santos. I am happy to go on record now and say that this guy will become the greatest ever golfer from Portugal, he has power and touch and a super attitude and is a true birdie machine. He will win soon on the European Tour and I fancy this may be his week. He is pretty short for a newbie at 18 with Betfair, however, he is the hot man in this field and is brimming with confidence after a fantastic start to the 2013 season.

I backed Justin Walters last week at fancy prices and I have gone in again at 130 with Betfair and will again back him for top 5 and top 10. Another South African with a strong all round game, he could have contended last week had he made better use of the par 5`s, expect him to step up again this week on a course he enjoys.

For a few years now, Garth Mulroy has been touted by the golf tipsters and to be fair, the learned and the good of the pro tour have been tipping him to make a big breakthrough. He clearly has a the game and the talent, perhaps his confidence in himself has been lacking, but last week I saw enough to make me feel that his win may be very close. All South African players love the thought of winning a flagship event within their own country and the Africa Open would provide just that. At 19 on Betfair, Mulroy is a sensible price.

When you watch Tommy Fleetwood play, you can see that he is the real deal. His game still requires consistency if he is to rise to the top ten in European golf, I think he is a realistic candidate to realise that ambition in the next few years. A little like Aiken, he throws in too many bogeys and doubles right now, but boy can he roll his rock. He plays with no fear and although that gives his fans a rollercoaster ride, it also means he will blow a decent class field away when it all falls right over 4 round. It might be a bit tight around Leopard Creek, but with a reduced calibre line up, I can see young Tommy taking a hand on Sunday.

Keep an eye out for Gagli and kamte at a very large price.

Northern Trust Open


Riviera is one of the courses that offers a true challenge for the worlds best players. Only quality players win here, no looks and what you should be looking for is crystal clean ball strikers and good putters.

There a few decent candidates in my view and top of my list is Australian Adam Scott. Scott came so close to landing the Open last year, only a late stumble and an inspired finish from the Big Easy, denied him his first Major. Scott has a wonderfully balanced view of things and the mental scars that many journalists have written about will not be a factor for the young Australian this year. Scott has a power game from the tee to match anyone and he has touch and class on and around the greens. He loves Riviera and imp[importantly, he is well rested and highly motivated to make 2013 his most successful yet. At only 26 on Betfair, the bookmakers have taken no chances and I cant blame them, I am on with a very decent wager.

Retaining the Australian theme, my second selection is Aaron Baddeley at 40 with Betfair. Aaron has enjoyed a better start to 2013 than he has to the last few seasons and with his wife recovering and out of immediate danger from her cancer ordeal, he is looking to re establish himself as a real contender for the big events on the PGA Tour. He plays the game at a pace similar to Snedeker and when his putter is hot, few can match him. He is another player who does well on tough courses and the winner this week will be posting a score a fraction of the winning totals in recent weeks. This is a tough, high quality venue and always delivers a quality winner. Remember, Baddeley won her in 2011 and in ten career starts here, has never missed the cut.

Charles Howell 111 has also begun his 2013 in grand fashion and his wonderful ball striking can put him in contention here. For my money, he still wobbles on a Sunday when the pressure comes on, so I will be backing him at 60 on the basis that he is within the top 5 and I can look to take profits.

Ryan Moore has taken me very close this season already, loves Riviera 4th in 2011 and 17th last year and is still an improver with more to come. I backed him at 36 and feel that his all round game will serve him well and he is very much a man in form. Seven top five finishes in his last 7 events tells you that Moore is a man to follow and a win is just around the corner.

I will be playing with a fifth bet this week, Retief Goosen has been telling everyone that he feels 20 years younger after his back surgery and his good health has allowed him to practice in a way he has been unable to in recent years. He has form at Riviera and his ne enthusiasm to match a solid game may see him spring a surprise this week, at 100 with Betfair he is a crazy good price.

My 4 picks for the WGC are;

Schwartzel
Colsaerts
Scott
Poulter

I will have a wee interest in Gonzo too.

My two ball multiples for today are;

Schwartzel
Coetzee
Chris Wood
Gonzo
Colsaerts
Alex Noren

Trebles, 4 folds, 5 folds and an acca

Lots of bloodied noses already and maybe more to come today. We have managed to get ourselves into a profit, thanks in the main to the exploits of Gonzo, backed at 320 and available to lay now at under 40, very good business. Of course we also have a retained interest in Poulter and Colsaerts, who again has given us a very strong trade out position.

I have had a further dabble today in trebles, 4 folds etc on the following;

Poulter
Gonzo
Colsaerts
Mahan
Lowry
Stricker

Good luck

WGC Cadillac


Justin Rose attempts to follow up on last years win over this Blue Monster course at Doral and he must have a fighting chance, his precision game is made for this track.

Tiger is the bookies fav but he cant be backed with any confidence that may become wind affected as the week rolls on.

Top players win at the Blue Monster and the course has a number of contrasts. The final hole is a brutal par 4 that plays in the top three toughest on tour, however, the general scoring average at Doral makes it one of the easier tracks that the players encounter each year. Fairways are tough to hit at Doral and the course plays into the hands of good putters and good scramblers.

Top of my list this week is Irishman Graham McDowell. At 55 with Betfair he is a terrific price and he is top three in scrambling this year on the PGA Tour. He is accurate from the tee this season and his driving is the one key area that I have noted a major improvement in. He has contented in the last two events and I fancy if the wind does blow as predicted, then Gmac can give us a great run for our money.

In contrast to Gmac, Hunter Mahan can never be described a s top scrambler, he is below top class at both chipping and putting, but when this is the case, you often find that players find other ways of getting the job done. Mahan is strong from the tee and his greens in reg stats bare the closest of scrutiny. Its also a fact that Mahan wins early season and after a very strong show in the last WGC event, he is primed to go well this week. I have backed him with Betfair at 42.

I cant leave out Luke Donald this week, despite the fact that there has just been a wee spark missing in his game to start the 2013 campaign. Donald is without doubt the top scrambler and when he has the putter working he is almost unplayable. He has found a swing in practice and I am told he is brimming with confidence, I have invested at 24 on Betfair.

As a speculative punt, I have had a small wager on the ultra consistent Carl Pettersson, very accurate from the tee and strong in greens in reg, he knows where the winning line is and if he is in contention down the stretch thats important when the heat is on.

I was going to include a revitalised Jason Day, however, despite his strong recent performances, he remains errant from the tee and with so much water in play, I fear he may have his shoes and socks off more than most.

Good luck to Rory who is suffering right now, cut him some slack guys.

good write up, the thing about gmac though is he has this reputation as a wind player but in my eyes when he has such conditions he very rarely takes advantage

Thanks for your comments and to an extent, I do agree with you. I am obviously pleased that Gmac is in the running and there is a nice trade as he sits at 9 and was backed at 55. I rather fancy the issue of the wind is more to do with state of mind rather than ability to play better in the wind. Is it likely that Tiger and Phil will continue to swing as well once the wind gets up, I doubt it ? Is Gamc perhaps more dependable once the wind blows, maybe, the next 36 holes well tell all, it should be fascinating.

I already took my stake back on Mahan and my other two picks are losers for sure ( didnt lay anything ) and I havent touched my Gmac bet. Gmac looks ready for this and all the pressure and expectation sits with Tiger and Phil, I fancy if Gmac can stay within two shots entering the last day and the wind gets up a tad, then he has a real chance.

The greens at Doral look to be firming up, the wind will make some of these borderline unplayable as we hit Sunday and the absolute key will be driving accuracy as you will have no chance of controlling a ball on the greens from anything other than the fairway. Gmac is driving the ball as well as I can remember, having said that, so is Phil with his power three wood.

Sky have extra coverage today so we are in for a real treat.

so close last week, but the shrewd among you may have backed Gmac at 55 or better and layed him around the 3 mark, well done if you did, or if you simply had an ew on him.

The Avantha is very much an under strength field but there is one golfer I have been waiting to back in India, Anirban Lahiri. Let me tell you, this guy is the real deal and he has a game that is strong enough for the European Tour already. I spent a deal of time following him at the Lytham Opan and he is a super ball striker and of course he finished top 20 there. He also managed a hole in one and it was only on the last nine holes of the final day that he dropped out of the top ten finish his play had promised.

His golf game is as solid as his swing and he makes few mistakes, the only issue for him is a lack of birdies, versus birdie opportunities, I am hopeful that he can master that this week. I was sad that his price was as low as 28, clearly the secret is out and if you consider that he is a much lower price than many multiple European Tour winners, its clear I am not the only one who sees a bright future for Mahiri.

I have also backed Jeev Milhka Singh at 30, SSP Chowrasia at 100 and Gaganjet Bhullar at 32.

Good luck

Tampa Bay Championship selections;

Luke Donald   18
Jim Furyk     26
Sang Moon Bae 100
John Hu       130

Well done Thomas Aiken, its about time too ! Nice effort from Bhullar for me and we still have Donald and Furyk later today. Lahiri let down as I hinted at, with his putting, still one for the future.

Lets hope Aiken can show the same levels of concentration and application when he returns to the main tour, he should have won much more.

From a betting perspective, I have a love hate relationship with Tiger Woods. It was fantastic to watch him playing so well when winning last time out, on the flip side, if he continues to play like that, then the other guys have little chance and you tend to be betting on the basis of a back to lay proposition. Also, if you are a Tiger fan, then he will decrease in value to the extent that he never represents a value betting proposition.

This week Tiger has the opportunity to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational for an incredible 8th time. In the history of the PGA Tour, only the legendary Sam Snead managed to win the same tournament 8 times and who would bet against the Tiger playing at a venue he clearly relishes - Bay Hill.

Just take a look at the pre tournament betting and we have Tiger at 4.3 and the next in is big Phil Mickelson at 25, it really is back to the good old days.

I cant back Tiger at that price and I am reluctant to bet against him, but I will ! At least there is now some real value lurking in the betting lists and of course, there is always the intriguing prospect of the back to lay possibilities.

Graham McDowell finished five shots back of Tiger in the 2012 Arnold Palmer and I fancy he may be the biggest danger to the Tiger this week. Gmac came close to knocking Woods off his perch recently and if anything, he looked a little under cooked on the final day. He should now be absolutely spot on for this and I expect him to be away to a fast start and remain in contention for the entire week. I have backed Gmac at 29 on Betfair.

Sean O Hair followed Tiger home at this track back in 2009 and it has to be said that his career has failed to deliver the victories that his game has promised. There have been signs this year and at the end of last, that the willowy youngster has begun to find his form again and he does play better at tough tracks, Bay Hill suits his game and he will carry positive memories. I have taken a piece of him with Betfair at 140 s and backed him for top 5 and top 10.

Geoff Ogilvy has one of the best swings and temperaments on tour, but he has had something of a fallow period in recent years, though, again, in recent weeks he has looked very close to his best. The odd stray shot costing him dear and we all made money on him a couple of weeks ago when he just failed to deliver the win. I like the look of him this week, especially as his confidence is high and he is said to enjoy the layout at Bay Hill. At 150 with Betfair he represents some real value.

My final pick is Englishman, Justin Rose. It isnt difficult to picture Justin being met behind the 18th green by Mr Palmer, just as he was met by Jack Nicklaus when he landed the Memorial. Justin has the game of course to win and I fancy its all down to the putting for JR, his game from tee to green can match the best and it goes without saying that he lacks no confidence when coming down the stretch. He is available around the 25 mark with Betfair and I expect he can get in the mix and give Tiger something to think about.

Keep an eye out for Martin Laird, a former winner here and at a huge price.

Nobody likes to gloat, but the leaderboard is looking rather good for our boys and there are some big profits to be taken if you want to guarantee a profit on day one.

The Shell Houston Open is now the curtain raiser for the Masters and its interesting to note that both courses are very similar in length. With blustery conditions forecast for the week, length will be all important at Firestone and scrambling will not play a part this week. The greens are massive at Firestone but strangely enough, its one of the easiest putting courses.

So the profile of player we want is long from the tee, a green finder from inside 150 yards and like every other week on tour, a player with a strong putting game.

Chris Kirk ticks all the boxes and of course he was runner up here in 2011 and didnt play in 2012. He is supreme between 125 and 150 yards and is as long as any from the tee. He was top 20 last week at Bay Hill and has managed to make six of seven cuts this year.

I was disappointed to see Kirk trading as low as 50 on Betfair, nonetheless he is my first selection.

It is impossible to ignore the presence of Hunter Mahan, when he plays at Houston. He is long, loves the large green complexes here and most importantly for him, he doesnt have to play chip shots too often, any area of his game that remains suspect at the highest level. Last years winner will be a popular selection this week with everything in his favour and even at a skinny 20 with Betfair, he is worth a punt. He is an early season player and his t21 last week in Arnold Palmer`s event is a tidy run into one of his favourite venues.

South Korean Seung Yul Noh will not appear on many tipsters lists for this week, but he ticks as many boxes as the guys trading at a fraction of his odds. He is bedding into life n the PGA Tour extremely well and I have no doubt that he deliver a maiden tour win this season. Firestone is a course that will suit his game and at a massive 220 with Betfair, I am on. It remains to be seen how Noh will fair when under the gun down the stretch if in contention, if he is in such a position come Sunday, then we will have a super trading position anyway.

For my fourth selection, I am going large again only this time its a European multiple winner who I believe will make his mark by winning both on the PGA Tour and in the next three seasons, landing a Major too. Branden Grace was a four time winner on the European Tour and when he gets a sniff of the lead on the final day, he doesnt know how to back off. This is his rookie year on the PGA Tour and he has flirted with the top ten on a few occasions already.

He is long from the tee, plays well in humid conditions, expected here this week and he putts well from long range, indeed he putts well full stop. He should have a wedge in hand more than usual this week and he can join the increasing band of South African golfers to make their mark in the USA. He is currently trading at 200, but that may drift as the event approaches, especially as the field strength is very high indeed.

Keep an eye out for both Russell Henley at huge odds and Retief Goosen now free from injury and with his sights set on Augusta.

Trophee Hassan 11

The Trophee Hassan 11 played over the Kings Course is one venue that the players really enjoy returning to. Two reasons, firstly, they are afforded the absolute top levels of comfort and hospitality and secondly, they get to play on a course that is rarely played on and so is always in near perfect condition.

The course favours an accurate player from the tee, length is not the answer around this track. Check out the last three winners , Michael Hoey, David Horsey and Rhys Davies. None of these set the pulse racing in terms of players with Major winning potential, but they are all renowned for their accuracy from both the tee and with iron in hand and of course, with putter in hand. Rhys Davies was especially noted for his flat stick skills.

With the above in mind, be prepared to look beyond the usual suspects who will head the betting, well, except for one player, Francesco Molinari. The pint sized Italian is a truly world class player and it is a big boost for the tournament to have such a leading light contesting. I do like his chances this week and his tee shot accuracy is the stuff of legend, its what you need here and I expect the tournament favourite to be in contention throughout. At 13.5 with Betfair, I guess I remains a fair price due to his pedigree.

Steve Webster can be one of the most frustrating of golfers from a betting perspective. He is the talent to sit inside the worlds top 50, but more often than not, he contrives his way out of contention, rather than into contention, just when he looks like he will kick on. Because I like the match of player and course this week and he is generally in good form, I fancy him for first round leader and if he does shot low on day one, then I will have a string trade out position, should I wish to trigger it. He is 70 on Betfair on Tuesday evening but may get bigger closer to Thursday.

If Steve Webster frustrates his own fans, then check out Mark Foster, The Englishman has struggled with the putter this season and he played much better last week in India, where by his own account he managed 13 curries during his stay at the Avantha Masters. I fancy the extra spice in his diet may just spark a decent event and he often comes alive in the spring. He is renowned from tee to green and I have no doubt that the perennial non winner, will eventually get across that line. Can it be this week, of course it can, but again, we can trade out if he is simply in contention. I like the look of 90 with Betfair.

Remember last year I tipped up Peter Lawrie as an ew bet at over 300 for the PGA at Wentworth and he duly placed for us. This is his time of year. This is a course he can shine on and he putted very nicely last week in India. His team mate was runner up here last year ( Damien McGrane ) and Peter will be ken to better that showing. I really do fancy his chances and at 55 his is a very fair price.

Keep an eye out for Robert Coles who truly loves it around here.

i agree with your thoughts on goosens resurgence..i have a feeling he will win this season, its just catching him when he does

A poor betting week this week with no European Tour event and I guess we are mostly keeping our powder dry for the big one next week in Augusta.

I will be betting the following players in the Valero Texas Open.

Matt Kuchar 17
Harris English 120
Retief Goosen 170
Ben Curtis 90

Good Luck

The Masters 2013


The only redeeming feature of the Boat Race, is that it signals the imminent arrival of my favourite golf event, the Masters.

Sunday saw victory for American Scotsman, Martin Laird, a win that broke the stranglehold of USA winners on the PGA Tour and this will give some confidence to those looking to back a European at Augusta this week.

In my preview, I will be looking at some of the specialist markets, where I believe that there is some real value lurking.

First, its onto the main event, the 2013 Masters from gorgeous Augusta National.

My colleagues are reporting that its warm there on Sunday and Monday, but storms are forecast later in the week ( Thursday and Friday ) and it all increases the requirement to have a player who doesn't lack for length from the tee.

On a day that has seen the death of Baroness Thatcher, I have ironically chosen a lefty as my primary selection. In the last two outings, I have not seen Phil look quite so controlled from the tee and his new three wood has given him bundles of confidence and of course, when he gets a sniff of a win at Augusta, he more often than not, delivers.

Of course Tiger is a worthy favourite, but only four times since the World Golf Rankings began has the number one player gone on to win the Masters, strange but true. Tiger is poor value and has the added pressure of his quest to catch Jack Nicklaus and his haul of Major titles. Pressure and poor value have made me pass the world`s number one this week, though I expect him to contend.

Mickelson is made for The Masters, he loves it around here, putts better here than anywhere and can win events without showing any prior form, he is something of a golfing enigma in that sense. This year his game is perhaps the best it has ever been and ahead of the first Major and I fancy he can getter the better of Woods and a resurgent McIlroy. I have taken the 14.5 on Betfair and will look to invest more as the event unfolds.

I love the look of Brandt Snedeker this year and no wonder, he has improved his performance stats out of all recognition and has declared his desire to now add a Major to his Fedex Cup victory. This is a top player who knows how to win and putts like a magician, a huge advantage at Augusta. That fact that Sneds has gone on record to say that he feels ready to win a Major is a really key point, it demonstrates a confidence and self belief that any player needs heading into a Major - you have to believe you can win.

The reason he is available at 44 on Betfair is all down to his recent injury which has seen him absent from events on the PGA Tour in recent weeks and you have to be aware that he lacks competitive action in the last month. On the flip side, he is fresh and played a practise round with Gmac on Sunday and no ill effects were reported. I think he can and will contend this week and have backed him again at 44 with Betfair.

Its an amazing fact that no Australian has ever won the Masters, hard to believe and I guess this season, they have largely been off the pace in most events. Adam Scott has always struck me as a Masters winner waiting to happen. Huge off the tee, great iron player and he can putt with real style at times. He was brushed aside by Schwartzel when he bagged his green jacket and it was cruel to watch his demise when the Big Easy slipped past him at soggy Royal Lytham. He is well rested for this and has been at Augusta since last week, completing his own preparations, no stone has been left unturned and having a multiple Masters winner on the bag will be a real help this week too.

The popular Australian can challenge history and he can win here this week and there would be no more fitting winner of the famous Green Jacket. I have backed Scott at 30 and think he represents real value at that.

Last year I backed Henrick Stenson, I also had a bet on him for 1st round leader and was due to collect when he pulled his tee shot left and hacked his way to a shocker on the 18th. The giant Swede recovered and still had a great tournament, but was always just off the pace of the leaders. This year, Stenson arrives here in much better form than he was at this time last year. He is brimming with confidence about his game and of course he has tasted victory again since last years event. I have never doubted he had the game to win here and his length and lack of fear can pay dividends in Georgia. My worry is that the secret is out on Stenson and he is relatively poor value in 2013. That said, I like his chances and it would be foolish for me to look elsewhere for the sake of value, I have backed him at his current odds of 75 with Betfair.

All the attention last week in the Valero Texas Open, was on the overdue return to form of both Martin Laird and Rory McIlroy , but lurking just off the pace was the Swede Peter Hanson, who closed with a 66 to sit just out of the top 5. Hanson had every chance of winning the Masters in 2012 and his confidence deserted him after his tee shot on the 12th on the final day came up short of the water hazard, not the usual pro play at a 150 yard par 3 ! Hanson has had a quiet yet very focused early 2013 and he and his team fancy that he is now ready to win a Major, I cant disagree with them and he is real value this week at a venue he truly relishes. He is available at a very tasty 100 on Betfair.

I will be taking an outsider this year too and I do like the look of Russell Henley at 330 with Betfair. The young American has a truly expansive game and if he doesn't freeze in his rooky year, then he can play a part in this years event. I am hoping he can shoot low in the first 36 holes and at least give me a good back to lay opportunity. Remember, he is already a winner and his length and strong iron play will serve him well here this week.

Keep an eye out for a past winner in Trevor Immelman at over 500 on Betfair, he has been playing much better than records would show and he does come alive around here.

Special Bets
Top Amateur - Alan Dunbar at 5/1

Top Debutant - Russell Henley ( little liquidity right now )

Top English - Lee Westwood

Top Asian - Y E Yang

Top Senior - Vijay Singh

Top South African - Trevor Immelman

Top UK and Ireland - Lee Westwood 8/1

First Round Leader - Stenson - 65/1The Masters 2013


The only redeeming feature of the Boat Race, is that it signals the imminent arrival of my favourite golf event, the Masters.

Sunday saw victory for American Scotsman, Martin Laird, a win that broke the stranglehold of USA winners on the PGA Tour and this will give some confidence to those looking to back a European at Augusta this week.

In my preview, I will be looking at some of the specialist markets, where I believe that there is some real value lurking.

First, its onto the main event, the 2013 Masters from gorgeous Augusta National.

My colleagues are reporting that its warm there on Sunday and Monday, but storms are forecast later in the week ( Thursday and Friday ) and it all increases the requirement to have a player who doesn't lack for length from the tee.

On a day that has seen the death of Baroness Thatcher, I have ironically chosen a lefty as my primary selection. In the last two outings, I have not seen Phil look quite so controlled from the tee and his new three wood has given him bundles of confidence and of course, when he gets a sniff of a win at Augusta, he more often than not, delivers.

Of course Tiger is a worthy favourite, but only four times since the World Golf Rankings began has the number one player gone on to win the Masters, strange but true. Tiger is poor value and has the added pressure of his quest to catch Jack Nicklaus and his haul of Major titles. Pressure and poor value have made me pass the world`s number one this week, though I expect him to contend.

Mickelson is made for The Masters, he loves it around here, putts better here than anywhere and can win events without showing any prior form, he is something of a golfing enigma in that sense. This year his game is perhaps the best it has ever been and ahead of the first Major and I fancy he can getter the better of Woods and a resurgent McIlroy. I have taken the 14.5 on Betfair and will look to invest more as the event unfolds.

I love the look of Brandt Snedeker this year and no wonder, he has improved his performance stats out of all recognition and has declared his desire to now add a Major to his Fedex Cup victory. This is a top player who knows how to win and putts like a magician, a huge advantage at Augusta. That fact that Sneds has gone on record to say that he feels ready to win a Major is a really key point, it demonstrates a confidence and self belief that any player needs heading into a Major - you have to believe you can win.

The reason he is available at 44 on Betfair is all down to his recent injury which has seen him absent from events on the PGA Tour in recent weeks and you have to be aware that he lacks competitive action in the last month. On the flip side, he is fresh and played a practise round with Gmac on Sunday and no ill effects were reported. I think he can and will contend this week and have backed him again at 44 with Betfair.

Its an amazing fact that no Australian has ever won the Masters, hard to believe and I guess this season, they have largely been off the pace in most events. Adam Scott has always struck me as a Masters winner waiting to happen. Huge off the tee, great iron player and he can putt with real style at times. He was brushed aside by Schwartzel when he bagged his green jacket and it was cruel to watch his demise when the Big Easy slipped past him at soggy Royal Lytham. He is well rested for this and has been at Augusta since last week, completing his own preparations, no stone has been left unturned and having a multiple Masters winner on the bag will be a real help this week too.

The popular Australian can challenge history and he can win here this week and there would be no more fitting winner of the famous Green Jacket. I have backed Scott at 30 and think he represents real value at that.

Last year I backed Henrick Stenson, I also had a bet on him for 1st round leader and was due to collect when he pulled his tee shot left and hacked his way to a shocker on the 18th. The giant Swede recovered and still had a great tournament, but was always just off the pace of the leaders. This year, Stenson arrives here in much better form than he was at this time last year. He is brimming with confidence about his game and of course he has tasted victory again since last years event. I have never doubted he had the game to win here and his length and lack of fear can pay dividends in Georgia. My worry is that the secret is out on Stenson and he is relatively poor value in 2013. That said, I like his chances and it would be foolish for me to look elsewhere for the sake of value, I have backed him at his current odds of 75 with Betfair.

All the attention last week in the Valero Texas Open, was on the overdue return to form of both Martin Laird and Rory McIlroy , but lurking just off the pace was the Swede Peter Hanson, who closed with a 66 to sit just out of the top 5. Hanson had every chance of winning the Masters in 2012 and his confidence deserted him after his tee shot on the 12th on the final day came up short of the water hazard, not the usual pro play at a 150 yard par 3 ! Hanson has had a quiet yet very focused early 2013 and he and his team fancy that he is now ready to win a Major, I cant disagree with them and he is real value this week at a venue he truly relishes. He is available at a very tasty 100 on Betfair.

I will be taking an outsider this year too and I do like the look of Russell Henley at 330 with Betfair. The young American has a truly expansive game and if he doesn't freeze in his rooky year, then he can play a part in this years event. I am hoping he can shoot low in the first 36 holes and at least give me a good back to lay opportunity. Remember, he is already a winner and his length and strong iron play will serve him well here this week.

Keep an eye out for a past winner in Trevor Immelman at over 500 on Betfair, he has been playing much better than records would show and he does come alive around here.

Special Bets
Top Amateur - Alan Dunbar at 5/1

Top Debutant - Russell Henley ( little liquidity right now )

Top English - Lee Westwood

Top Asian - Y E Yang

Top Senior - Vijay Singh

Top South African - Trevor Immelman

Top UK and Ireland - Lee Westwood 8/1

First Round Leader - Stenson - 65/1

It will be interesting to see whether the Masters big wigs have the courage to dump Woods out of the 2013 Masters for the clearly illegal drop he took at 15. Lets hope they do as two of our picks, Sneds and Adam Scott are right in the running. I havent layed anything other than Immelman who traded around the 30 mark yesterday, I backed him at all rates from 500 to 550. Snedeker hasnt hit top form yet, his pitching was poor yesterday and he drove poorly on day one, so how gratifying to see him sitting in the perfect place just two shots off Jason Day. I expect Snedeker to hit the go button today and make it into the final group on Sunday.

Anything that follows the Masters has to be an anti climax, Adam Scott taking the title was a great result for us, though my own best outcome would have been a Snedeker win. I really fancied him to land the green jacket as we headed into the final day, fortunately, when the rain came I sensibly took my profits, doing so on the basis that in my view, Sneds putts far better on very fast greens and of course the heavy rain accentuated his lack of length versus some of the other nearest challengers.

In an attempt to keep our run going, I believe I have some strong picks again this week, both sides of the pond.

Beginning with the Spanish Open played at El Saler. Francesco Molinari defends his title here and his precise golf looks on paper to be perfect for this tight, wind affected course. Be warned, the diminutive Italian posted on Twitter on Tuesday evening "Having some problems with my lower back, I hope to be able to play as defending champion" On that basis, we simply must overlook him this week.

I never thought I would ever back Gonzalo Fernandez Castagno, however, the time has come. He has truly raised his game in the last 15 months or so and he had a super Masters. His putting stroke and routine isnt something to watch for too long, you would never sleep at night, but it seems to be getting the job done. The tour players rate his ball striking as one of the best and this and his tee shot accuracy will pay rich dividends this week on a course truly made for his game. I have backed Gonzo at 20 with Betfair.

Ask a Spaniard how important their domestic Open is and they will keep you talking all day, add to that the fact that this years event is only a week after the birthday of the late, great Sevy and the biggest risk of backing a Spaniard is that the emotion of the occasion may find them out. One very passionate home boy is Pablo Larrazabal , the young swashbuckler would love to win here this week and he has a very good record in the event with a string of top ten finishes. He has climbed the World Golf Rankings in the last 18 months and clearly has the game to win events and make it into the top 50. I have always felt he needs a strong caddie on his bag to try and keep him on an even keel. So often he follows a run of birdies with a bogey or two that look as if they were the product of poor game management and too much adrenaline.

I know he is well rested and has practised well and is ready for this like never before. He also has a strong  early morning draw with Paul Casey and Eduardo Molinari and can post an early score giving a nice position from which to trade. I have taken the 25 with Betfair. Of all my selections, a win for the Barca supporting Larrazabal would give me the greatest pleasure.

Sergio Garcia is a worthy, if short priced favourite and I wouldnt wish to put anyone off backing him. He has a similar fragile looking putting stroke to that of fellow Spaniard, Gonzo and like Gonzo, he has still managed to get himself over the winning line in the last 12 months. This week is crazy like no other for Sergio, he is the biggest draw card of all the home players and he will have a schedule full of demands and sponsor requests that just might deflect his focus enough to derail his chance of winning, I do however expect to see him make a top ten finish.

My final two picks are non Spaniards. Firstly, the young Dutchman Joost Luiten. he son of a fruit wholesaler, Luiten came very close to turning his back on the game a few years back and since he re dedicated himself he has flirted with the winners enclosure on several occasions. No question he has the game, has no worries playing in the wind and believe me, the wind will be a factor on this tight tree lined track. He has watched the Masters with envy, but has been working very hard on his game, unlike some, he is well rested and has everything i his favour this week, at 50 with Betfair he looks real value to me.

Shane Lowry visited the USA recently and was reported to have had his head turned, a missed cut in Texas was followed by a much better show in his pre Masters event and he will have realised that he has the game to mix it with the big boys. Brought up with links golf, the back nine will fit his eye really well and I really fancy that the porky Irishman can be in contention from day one. It remains to be seen whether he will venture full time to the USA, my inside track is that he favours the full Irish breakfast, soda bread and local sport to tear himself away right now, the European Tour will be all the richer for hanging on to him. I took 46 on him but he may drift to 50 before kick off.

Finally, a good word for Miguel Angel Jimenez who returns this week following a broken leg caused while skiing, welcome back to the Mechanic.

Really good read mate...Best with your selections this week!

RBC Heritage below

The players simply love paying in the RBC Heritage over the truly stunning Harbour Town Links. The tree lined course rewards precision ball striking and the past winners provides ample testimony to the top ball strikers in world golf, interestingly, the course also throws up multiple winners.

Brandt Snedeker led the Masters after 54 holes and perhaps looked a little under cooked on the last day due to lack of competitive action caused by injury. He also struggled to find the pace of the rain soaked greens, he remains in my sights this week despite carrying a favourites tag. The American won here in 2011 and has the perfect game for the tight Harbour Town links. He didnt enjoy his final round at Augusta nd to some extent has something to prove again this week. Watch him go and believe me, he will content this week, the current 15 with Betfair will look mighty generous come Sunday.

The stellar field is awash with players who had the Masters experience, top players often take a break the week following a Major, it shows the esteem within which they hold this truly wonderful golf course.

For my remaining picks I am looking way down deep into the odds lists and for a back to lay prospect, I have landed with English journeyman, Brian Davis. You may recall he famously called a foul on himself off the side of the 18th hole during a playoff, effectively handing the title to a relieved Jim Furyk. Davis a Florida native, has performed very well in the last tow years and features with regularity on PGA Tour leaderboards. He tied for 6th in Houston in an equally strong line up and he is over priced at 70 with Betfair, take the hint.

With Adam Scott winning at Augusta, the Australians have been in party mood ever since, in all honesty, I expect that win for Scott to lift the spirits of all Australians and dont be surprised to see more than one contend here and in the next few events. The one I like the look of is the left hander, Greg Chalmers. Chalmers has truly wonderful putting stroke and he is also very accurate on his day, he has won most recently back in Australia , but can win on a track like this, small, slick greens are to his favour and at 150 with Betfair, he is great value.

The legend that is Jonny Miller simply drooled over the swing of young Australian Matt Jones. Born in Sydney, he now resides in Scottsdale and he is one of those players yet to really hit the real big time, but in my view, he has the all round game to make a big impact and I expect him to breakthrough real soon, perhaps it will be this week at Harbour Town. Interestingly, he is ranked rd in total driving on tour, thats a combination of accuracy and distance, perfect for this tricky links. If the youngster can enjoy a decent putting week, then he can mix it on Sunday, I have backed him at a tasty 260 on Betfair.

Expect Luke Donald to show this week too.

Just had a few ew across event doubles, main one being Snedeker with Gonzo, feeling confident, lets see what happens.

I hope some of you took my advise re Francesco Molinari and either avoided backing him or chose to lay.

Ballantine`s selections

Sang Moon Bae 44
Anirban Lahiri 200
Julien Quesne 80
Marcus Fraser 46

Zurich Classic Selections

Justin Rose 14
Graham Delaet 65
Matt Jones 110
Trevor Immelman 200

Why don't you post in the tournament threads each week like the rest of us instead of keeping this going? More would read your thoughts no doubt.

tbf to golfdaft if he did that it would take yonks to scroll through his picks

hes kept it going nicely through thick and thin and well done to him for that, whatever the outcome

Thanks for the comments chaps, if you feel I should post in a tournament thread then no worries to me, not sure why it reading my thoughts here is an issue though.

Volvo China Open

The Volvo China Open is yet another sub standard European Tour event as most of the cream of European golf now make their principle living in the USA. We do have a 12 year old Chinese boy playing, how crazy is that ?

It is a tricky event to try and establish any value and even trickier to attempt to establish potential winners.

One to keep on the right side of is the Swede, Alex Noren, he shot the course record 63 here last year and is clearly in form after a solid show in all but the final round last week. He is perhaps a little short in the betting and I fancy the favourites tag may just be enough to bog him down this week.

I side with Pablo Larrazabal. He  had a great year last year and just needs to add some consistency to a first class game, a game which incidentally, will be very suited to this course. He perhaps should have won last week and just when I expected his putter to get hot, it did the opposite. It takes time for him to hit top stride and I fancy he is right on the button for this and see him as real potential winner this week. I have backed him at 25.

Next up is Tommy Fleetwood. A newcomer on tour who has shown flashes of real quality already and should be accustomed to seeing his name on the leaderboard as he has flirted with the winners enclosure more than once this season already. He missed the cut here last year but has progressed will since 2012 and I fancy he can trouble the judge and at 60 and above, he is very decent value.

I cant put you off Branden Grace, he lifted this last year along with three other European Tour victories, but he hasnt hit those heights in 2013. I suspect he may well have swerved China in favour of the USA had he not been defending this week and it would be no surprise to see him languish in mid table, motivation is everything in this game !

All Australians were inspired by the magnificent Masters victory of Adam Scott at Augusta and Brett Rumford proved that point when winning a playoff last week. Fellow Australian Marcus Frazer, perhaps should have won but he fluffed his lines on the final hole from the middle of the fairway. The 35 year old finished 6th here last year and will be determined to go one better than last week and keep that Australian bandwagon rolling, he is at 30 in some places.

I expect Paul Lawrie to put up a decent show after battling back from a very poor start last week, but there is better value with Emiliano Grillo. The 20 year old Argentinian has featured several times just outside and inside the top ten and he is recognised as a future star. His game should be suited to this track and you can get 70 on the exchanges and more. I have balked him on the basis of a third or fourth round lay opportunity.

Good Luck

The Players Championship is the standout event outside of the four majors and aside of the top class field, its also the stadium course and in particular the closing holes, that deliver maximum golfing drama, time and again.

When considering your betting plans this week, you need to be aware that the Stadium Course is one of the few tracks on the PGA Tour that doesnt favour any particular kind of game, in short, anyone can win here. Who can forget the rather agricultural Craig Perks grabbing his own personal glory with an eagle, birdie, birdie finish.

At 7200 yards, even the shorter hitters can feature, though you should be aware that torrential rain last week had the course completely waterlogged so it may play a tad longer and softer than usual.

My standout bet for the week is arguably the hottest player on tour this year, Billy Horschel. Our boy has finished in the top ten in his last four events, winning one of them and adding a second and third placed finish too.

If Horschel were to win here this week, he would become the first Players Championship debutant, therefore making history. I have balanced this with the knowledge that Billy has played over 80 rounds at the Stadium Course as he lives adjacent to the property and this must give him some sort of advantage. By his own admission, playing here at other times of the year is nothing like tournament week, however, he added “I think the advantage I get out of it is I know where you can miss on the golf course,” Horschel said. “The lines don't look as intimidating because I know there is more room".

Horschel is already an acquired taste, sometimes his antics on course are less than impressive, but his golf game is pure gold and he is a potential golfing superstar.

I cant believe he is trading at 70 on Betfair and I have backed him to win, top 3, 5 , 10 and 20.

The belief handed out to all Australian players courtesy of Adam Scott`s Masters win has been obvious to all. Check out the results of one Brett Rumford as fitting testimony to that.

I am drawn to another Australian this week in Jason Day. After a below par 2012, Day has re dedicated himself this year and his performances have reflected that. Day has a top game and he is long too, I fancy the Stadium Course will suit his game and if he get the putter to behave, then he is a real danger to all. He is 55 with Betfair.

When I had lunch with Billy Foster recently, he identified Thorbjorn Olesen as "a bag that any caddie would want to be on" high praise indeed from a man who was with the late and great Sevy for many years and latterly, Lee Westwood. Olesen was a couple of bad holes away from landing the Green Jacket at Augusta and has made a fantastic start to his move to the USA for the 2013 season.

The European Tour`s loss is the PGA Tour` gain and I fancy that the bookmakers have made a real mess in pricing him up this week. He is long, straight, scrambles with the best of them and is a Major winner just waiting to happen. How on earth he can be 130 on Betfair this week, goodness knows, I have also backed him for the same place finishes as I covered Horschel.

I have also covered two further players this week on an ew basis, I like the look of Kyle Stanley at 170 and the in form Lucas Glover at 220.

Good luck

What a poor week for the European Tour this week, roll on Wentworth and the PGA and a chance to make decent money with some real market liquidity.

It will be small stakes for me and my bets will be as follows;

Matchplay

Colsaerts
Olesen
Gmac
Lowry

Madeira

Harto
Eduardo De La Riva
Damien McGrane
Peter Uhlein

Good luck

Almost every year it seems, there have been significant changes to the West Course at Wentworth. Remember the heavy criticism aimed at the Big Easy for the dramatic changes to the 17th and 18th holes and of course the very poor condition of the putting greens.

Well, I can tell you that the putting surfaces have been re laid and are vastly improved on last year and the landing area on the par 5 finishing hole has been flattened out to allow a realistic opportunity to hit that green in two and therefore increase the chance of eagles on 18. I was at Wentworth last year and aside of James Morrison chipping on for an unexpected birdie on 18, it was as dull as dishwater, expect fireworks and final day drama this year.

This was great event for me last year, selecting the winner Luke Donald, Paul Lawrie and Peter Lawrie at a huge price for places, all delivered. So, its an event I enjoy and I am pleased to say that with a Gmac / Peter Uihlein double last weekend, my form is warm to say the least.

With the traditional Pro Am event due to deny the players any further worthwhile course practice, it will be full steam ahead early on Thursday and I cant wait.

Luke Donald is an understandable bookies favourite, however, his form this season on the USA Tour has been well below his usual standards and he doesnt appear to have the spark of previous years. Of course this may change now he is back at European Tour HQ, but somehow I doubt it and I would be keen tom field against him this week.

The European Tour have been keen to market the fact that the entire victorious European Ryder Cup team will be present this week which is great news for TV and patrons alike, shame none of them, other than Paul Lawrie, actually practice their craft here on a full time basis.

Justin Rose was edged out last year and simply miss fired on the last day when Donald stepped up his game, I fancy things will be different this time and with his wonderful ball striking, I can see Rose taking revenge and the bumper first prize. At 13 with Betfair he is fairly short, but I am already on and have backed Rose to win the event outright, I am pleased to see he is also out early on Thursday and with a somewhat rejuvenated Martin Kaymer.

It should be noted that its not always a superstar that wins this prestige event at the home of European golf, remember journeyman Simon Khan lifting the trophy only a few short years ago. Branden Grace is on the verge of that superstar bracket, the South African won an amazing four times in his rookie year in 2012 and placed 5th here too. The course is made for his power game and he has sublime touch, he also has a prized early / late combo and at a rather large looking 50 with Betfair I simply had to dive in.

Tongchai Jaidee was narrowly edged out by a very focused Gmac at last weeks Volvo Matchplay, I followed the Thai sensation at Wentworth last year and he hit the ball extremely well. Given his relative form this year over last and his lift in confidence, I fancy Jaidee can be in the mix again this year. He is a seasoned pro and class act and at 90 he represents some real value.

Golf tipsters live for the prospect of a big priced outsider landing the spoils and in that regard, I am no different and I think I may have found a couple of alternatives to the popular choices at the head of most betting lists. Last year I gave you Peter Lawrie at silly prices, this year I have two more at even more extravagant odds.

First up is a player who has featured here at Wentworth on more than one occasion, Fredrick Andersson Hed. The tall Swede is at home around Wentworth and at 450 is a very tasty back to lay proposition. Runner up in 2010 and top 18 in 2012, he is over priced and ideal as a prospect for trading out.

This event often throws up a young upstart and, Danny Willett showed here and so did young James Morrison last year and this year I fancy the flamboyant young German Maximillian Kieffer can hit the early headlines. You may recall he lost that elongated playoff and was one good putt from a maiden European Tour victory. He has no ear and I am told fancies the course this week, at 500 on Betfair, why not ?

Two final words, one for Marcel Siem who my contacts tell me is very confident of a strong showing this week.

A shout also for the caddie Billy Foster. I had lunch with Billy a couple of weeks ago in Leeds and what a top bloke he is. His knee injury cost him his job with Lee Westwood and its a year since he last carried a golf bag. I am delighted that he is back this week and will have the pleasure of caddying for Thomas Bjorn, the very best of luck Billy and welcome back.

well done on your double last week golfdaft, hope you made plenty

Thanks Donny, sadly not ! I backed both in singles and neglected the usual across the card ew doubles. I really dont enjoy betting on matchplay events and hence the decision, no regrets though. Nice bets on Uihlein and jumped on him on the final day too.

Delighted with another top winning week, Mikko looks home and hosed, great stuff and great profits

sparkling form golfdaft, well done

Thanks Donny, nice to have a run of winners.

This week at the Lyoness;

Its hard to see past Weisberger who I have backed and in ew doubles with Snedeker too.

I also like the look of Pablo who should have won this event but had a truly Pablo moment !

Also backed Drysdale and Kjeldsen.

Pleasing start to the Lyoness

St Jude Classic picks

Snedeker
Russell Henley
Horschel
Davis Love
Matt Jones

Merion will have dried out to an extent before we see the first boys tee off on Thursday morning and its interesting to note that at 6,996 yards, this is the shortest US Open course since Shinnecock Hills back in 2004.

Its tight, with rough described by Ernie Else as "the worst I have seen" and with the weather forecast to see continued rain through Thursday, expect some high scores and some big names missing the cut.

You may be surprised to learn that Merion has seen more USGA Championships than any other venue, ironically, the majority of the field will never have played the course until this week, so there are no real home boy advantages.

All the talk all week has been about players with good ball striking and inevitably the name of Jim Furyk will be on the lips of many, not for me. The American veteran has had his chance at US Open glory and like a boxer with too many heavy fights, he carries way too much scar tissue to be given a serious chance.

Another fancied player is Phil Mickelson and in true lefty fashion, he has reportedly flown out of Merion to seek dry weather practice and attend his daughters graduation. You have to admire his work life balance and its not impossible to see him take a hand this week, though I fancy he may just fall short.

On no account should anyone looking to back golfers this week, look only at short straight hitters with the best fairways and greens in regulation stats. This event often throws up unusual results and none more so than Michael Campbell and to a lesser extent the Argentine, Angel Cabrera. Be aware, there are lots of contenders here this week and just as many outside of the bookmakers top ten.

Until I saw the weather forecast and the recent pictures of a waterlogged Merion, I would have included Graham McDowell, but he is a dry ground player and he tends to pick his shots off the surface rather than go deep and this will be a disadvantage for Gmac this week.

My main bet for the week will be the unpredictable Rory McIlroy, reported to have told friends that his irons are "dialed in" this week, exactly what I wanted to hear. The young Irishman has already bagged two Majors and its interesting to note that both were achieved on heavily rain softened venues. He will hit three wood more than driver this week and that will afford him a far higher percentage of approach shots played from short grass, bad news for the other players. Rory is backable because his form has been patchy at best and a further much reported management change must have impacted focus. Have no fear, he is up for this and his camp report him in the same mindset as his previous two Major wins. At 23 with Betfair it looks like a real betting proposition and I am on big time.

Charl Schwartzel is a truly magnificent ball striker and I expected him to kick on and challenge more after his amazing Masters victory, but for a number of reasons he has stumbled, especially in the USA. His recent US form has given me reason to take note and in particular, he seems to have regained his confidence with the short stick, when this boy putts well then he troubles the judge. Like Rory he will play three wood of many tees and hi high, towering irons will separate him from many in the field. I have backed the South African bible puncher at 40 with Betfair.

There will be a deal of attention on Sergio and of course Tiger. The former will get some spiteful remarks from a partisan crowd and he may struggle to make the cut. The latter blows hot and cold these days and if your a teenager, you struggle to remember the last time the Tiger landed a Major. Even hitting three wood , Tiger is just too wayward and his distance control in not what it was when he was at his peak, I pass on him this week and may also take Rory to eclipse him in the match betting.

Next up for me is a man who you may be surprised to learn leads the US PGA Tour stats for fairways hit and is also in the top three for greens hit in regulation, what more could you want folks for a US Open contender. The big Swede has no fear of winning and he is also a real danger on the par 5`s. I expect to see Henrik up there all week and have backed him at 80 s and for first round leader.

I remain a fan of Snedeker and had the rain stayed away, then he and Gmac would have been my main picks, but Sneds has struggled since his rib injury and blew out at the Masters on the final day when he looked a real potential winner. the rain came that day and Snedeker struggled with the course when others prospered, hard to forget that.

Top ball strikers will go well here this week and if you ask the players, they will tell you that there is none better than Boo Weekley. The American showed his form by winning at another "ball strikers" course at Colonial, landing the Crowne Plaza Invitational. Sure, he doesnt strike you as a ready Major winner, but the track is right and the conditions wont worry him, besides, at 120 on Betfair, he is great value for a speculative play.

My lively outsiders are;

Peter Hanson 200
Carl Pettersson 320


And there are much worse 1000 shots than Jose Maria Olazabal who is almost back to his best and leaving driver in the bag will help him, he could feature for 3 days and give a nice back to lay opportunity.

Finally, you will note at Merion this week that there are no pin flags. Tradition dictates that small wicker baskets replace flags on the metal poles ( flagsticks ). Should a players ball get stuck in the basket, the the local rule allows that player to place his ball on the rim of the cup as a free drop.

Good luck

Beware the wet conditions at Merion tomorrow, course is still saturated and this will influence the play and it strengthens the thoughts in my earlier preview.

Another lovely winner last week with the Big Easy, its been a really profitable few weeks, remember, my posts can always be found at www.open4golf.com Irish Open this week and my selections are as follows;

Shane Lowry
Jamie Donaldson
Rafa Cabrera Bello
Marc Warren ( back to lay )

Good Luck

Open De France 2013-07-02

We have a really decent field this week at the tremendous Le Golf National for the French Open, even Matt Kuchar is over for pre Open Championship European jaunt.

This truly high quality golf course is likely to play firm and fast and if it does then its as close to a top quality British links that you are ever likely to experience and it will reward patience and top ball striking.

This is not a track for the slogger, prepare for a craftsman or an artisan to be victorious come Sunday in France.

So who is on my shortlist this week and why ? Two of my selections are players who frustrate me endlessly, but this unique course may just inspire them to greater heights and they represent terrific value.

When Gregory Havret followed home Gmac at Pebble Beach to take the runner up spot in that marvellous US Open, I fancied he would progress into a potential Major winner himself. He showed poise and calm and clear head that final day and was just touched off by a high flying McDowell. In my view he has under performed for the most part since that event, but signs are there that he is now very close to picking up another European Tour victory. Four of his last five events have resulted in top 20 finishes and I fancy that this course and in the predicted fine weather will be the perfect blend for him.

We saw last week how the top Irish boys failed to handle the pressure of playing in their national championships, but its much more low key for the French boys and the expectation on them is far less onerous than face Rory and co last week in Ireland.

I have backed Havret at 85 with Betfair and he is a strong fancy.

With a handful of holes to play in the Turnberry Open that Tom Watson nearly won, a relatively unknown South African called Thomas Aitken was oh so close to taking his own place in golfing history. I was on at fancy prices as he crept up the leaderboard and into contention, had he not made a real mess of the easy par 5 17th, I may have had one of my biggest ever payouts, what might have been !

Aiken, like Havret, really frustrates me. Boundless talent matched with a freewheeling attitude on course and an often disinterested look just to add insult to injury. Watching Aitken play a quality Open venue under fairly firm and windy conditions, left me feeling that here was a big winner just waiting to happen. To a certain extent he has dropped off my radar, but my notes on him have always highlighted his chances on a fast and high quality links and this week at Alstom, the conditions are perfect for Thomas. I have backed him at a mouth watering 200 on Betfair.

Every now and again, Richie Ramsey pops up, often when you least expect him, I quite fancy his chances here too and at 100 he seems a fair price.

The market is made because the likes of Donald and Kuchar are in the field, but I don’t fancy either to trouble the judge.
Thongchai Jaidee is also available over 100 and he is a player who plays tough golf courses very well. He has bounced back in the last 14 months after a slump the previous season and I can see him taking a place spot come Sunday afternoon.

Keep an eye out for Thomas Levet, he can plot his way around here with his eyes closed and the 200 is an insult to a former winner, who can still win again.

Scottish Open

Martin Laird
Branden Grace
Soren Kjeldsen
Phil Mickelson

After a stunning week at Castle Stuart and memorable and richly deserved victory for Phil Mickelson, we move into Open Championship week in great form. Of course the Scottish Open was our best result this year after selecting the winner, runner up and Martin Laird too, so all three in the top five, fabulous.

When I spoke with Billy Foster ahead of the Scottish Open he told me that he was on the bag with Branden Grace for two weeks and that there were no plans beyond Muirfield. However, it seems that the pair have blended to great effect and Billy was keen to stress two things " the kid can putt and he certainly has balls " I added that Grace has shown his best form on links or links style courses, a win at Fancourt, a win at St Andrews and of course his win in China was on a fast running links type track, so this boy has form.

I am pleased to say that I had the good sense to back our South African friend at 130 on Betfair ahead of his Scottish Open run out and that has left me in a very strong trading position so long as Grace fires early at Muirfield.

There has been much said about the strength of the caddie value of Billy Foster and if you add him to the strong links game of Branden Grace and an attitude that means he doesnt back off when the chips are down, then even if you missed the boat on the big value, you have a genuine contender at Muirfield this week, 65 is still decent value.

I am sure that with a fast and bumpy track, small greens and knee high rough, bathed in warm sunshine with only light winds expected, then the 2013 Open has all the signs of a potential freak result. So who could be the next Todd Hamilton or Ben Curtis ?

Before I look at a few lively outsiders for the week, let me name my second selection, Brandt Snedeker. He has the kind of precision game and genuinely masterful putting to get himself right in the mix. He perhaps should have won the Masters earlier this year, I believe it was the deluge of rain that severely lengthened Augusta on the final day that killed of the young American`s chances. Injury has kept him quiet for much of this season but believe me when I tell you that Snedeker is ready for this. Of course he tasted leading the Open for 36 holes and admitted his love for links golf and a fondness for the putting surfaces.

With little requirement for driver on most holes, length will have no real bearing on the outcome, except to deny the big hitters the very advantage that most events around the globe, afford them pretty much every week.

Snedeker reminds me of the great Nick Price, the brisk swing and the positive "pop" style putting stroke and I have every reason to believe that Snedeker can replicate the performance of the man from Zimbabwe and land an Open Championship, 44 looks a decent price.

I should say at this point that the high street bookmakers are all offering better value than most weeks with several going six and seven places, do shop around for the best deals.

When the Ryder Cup shows up in France in 2018, we should all hope that GMac makes the team as he already showed the other week that he has a liking for the course at Allstom. He won the French Open and his liking for links golf on a quality, challenging golf course was always going to give him an advantage and will carry that same advantage into Muifield on Thursday. Already an open Champion in the USA, Gmac must be backed this week and its tough to envisage him being outside the top five..

My final main selection is another American and its a another former Open Champ, not somebody you might expect to be on my short list, its Stewart Cink. Perhaps the least popular Open winner in recent memory and all because he denied Tom Watson what would have been the greatest sporting achievement of all time had he holed that put at Turnberry. Watson is no forlorn hope here at Muirfield but Cink is now back to his best after a few years in the golfing wilderness and he is a genuine contender at silly prices, he is still available at 230 and that represents terrific value.

Its always worth a few small wagers on some outsiders during Open week as there are huge prices at the outset and the strong market affords some superb trading conditions. My shortlist for a sneaky few quid is;

Michael Thompson 650
Tom Watson 600
Russell Henley 600
Peter Senior 1000
Thomas Aitken 350
Ryan Moore 310

The very best of luck and remember to follow my updates on Twitter @golfdaft

well done on your scottish open picks

and good luck this week too !

Apologies for the missing thread last couple of weeks, back now and raring to go again.

I always view the US PGA as the poor cousin of all the Majors, the one I look forward to the least, however, this years event at Oak Hill in New York, should prove to be a wonderful event.

This is a true test of golf and if the forecast rain stays away, then expect anyone under par to be finishing inside the top 5. Its a little known fact that there have been over 1000 players who have competed in events at Oak Hill with only six finishing under par, you have been warned.

So what is the profile we are looking for as a potential winner ? For my money its a street fighter, a Jack Russell, a battler, someone who grind out the pars under the most searching of tests.

There will be many who look to Tiger after an impressive fifth win of the season last week at Firestone. He is truly remarkable at delivering multiple wins at tracks he favours. Believe me when I tell you, he wont be winning here.

Besides, Tiger has never won any event on a Donald Ross designed golf course, how is that for a killer fact ??

My idea of the winner for the last couple of weeks has been Zach Johnson. The former Masters winner has struck a rich vein of form in recent weeks, he followed his runner up to Jordon Speith with a super showing in the Open at Muirfield and if the putter had been hotter, he may have snatched the spoils from Lefty.

Johnson isnt long, but length isnt the key factor here, accuracy and determination are and my man has both in abundance. He is around 33/1 with conventional bookmakers but you can still take 50 with Betfair on the exchange.

Ian Poulter polarizes opinion but one thing is for sure, he is a big time player and tough courses suit both his game and his character. It would be fitting if the man who came through the PGA ranks here in the UK, starting out as a pro shop assistant , can make his first Major, the US PGA, the pinnacle for all PGA professionals. He is fresh from a vintage Poulter charge at The Open and he likes the course her in New York, I fancy he will contend and will be in the mix come Sunday. At 80 with Betfair he represents some real value.

Was I the only person in the world to back YE Yang when he took down the Tiger ? Maybe ! Perhaps this year we may see a repeat from another golfer from the Far East, this time in the shape of Hideki Matsuyama. The young Japanese superstar looks a real talent and appears to have a temperament to match. He is accurate from the tee and strong with his irons and although its perhaps early in his career to expect a Major, I rather fancy he might make the frame at least this week. His current Betfair price of 130 looks about right to me.

My two outsiders for the week are; Manny Manassero at 210 and David Lingmerth at a massive 320. We all know that the former can win anywhere and although he is yet to deliver on US soil, he has the pedigree of a Major winner. Lingmerth has crept into the reckoning several times this season and we very impressed with him at the Players Championship where he all but won the event. He looks calm and collected as most Swedes are and I fancy he may ruffle a few feathers this week.

For my sideshow bets I will be going large on a hole in one here at Oak Hill, I will even predict that the sixth hole will be the location to deliver us some easy pickings.

A final word for Matt Jones, the young Australian who plays on the US Tour is said to have found some real consistency in practice so he might be worth a wee interest at an obscene 440

Good Luck

good luck !

promises to be a cracker

Thanks fella and yes I agree, should be a top event and volatile betting on the last day, have fun and be lucky

Alfred Dunhill Championship

Charl may win but is way way too short, each way and place betting is best at the outset.

I rather like these four and have had a decent bet on Walters

Justin Walters 85
Alexander Levy 220
Richard Sterne 15.5
Jaco Van Zyl 55

Australian Open

Greg Chalmers 50
Geoff Ogilvy 50

Casio Open

Hideki Matsuyama 8 ( very strong each way advice )

I must wish you all a very Happy and Prosperous New Year for 2014.
The curtain opener for 2014 is the Hyundai Tournament of Champions played at the Plantation Course in Kapalua. Last year saw incredible winds and a shortened tournament won by Dustin Johnson, he is here again to defend.
The forecast this year looks much more favourable with light winds and temperatures in the low 80`s.
Form horses do well here, with the large greens being a feature and of course at nearly 7500 yards and the only par 73 on the 2014 PGA Tour schedule, the bombers have a real advantage.
I like the look of Martin Laird, Chris Kirk and Russell Henley and I take these three for a bold show in this restricted field event.
All are long from the tee and should take advantage of the par 5`s and all are priced to encourage each way betting, Laird in particular looks a strong bet.
We finished off last year with a super winning double when Zach Johnson and Thomas Bjorn won for us ( see my website for details open4golf.com ), lets hope we can begin 2014 in similar form.

My bets with Betfair are;
Martin Laird   30
Russell Henley  70
Chris Kirk  28

Good Luck

happy new year golfdaft, good luck for 2014

One of my favourite betting events and I have a confident selection this week in the shape of Peter Hanson.

The Swede has taken something of a back seat since the Ryder Cup where he didnt get the game time perhaps he deserved. He has his sights firmly set on making the team again in 2014 and I understand is extremely determined to do so. He has the game for any layout but I feel he is very suited to this weeks layout and conditions. He tiptoed his way onto the leaderboard last week at Abu Dhabi without ever being in real contention.

In many respects he is something of an under achiever, especially as his fellow players would to a man name the Swede in their top ten European Tour professionals. He is one of the good guys on tour and his game is coming nicely to the boil, expect a real good showing this week.

My other selections this week are all big prices and represent great value.

All with Betfair;

Peter Hanson 26
Thongchai Jaidee
Danny Willett 120
Stephen Gallacher


The Farmers Insurance

The people at Farmers Insurance must be salivating at the prospect of such a high calibre field for such an early season event. There is no doubt that the magnificent test that is Torrey Pines is largely responsible for that, the top players love to play here and Phil and Tiger and more recently, Snedeker are all what you might call "horses for courses".

Tiger is looking for win number 82 and Phil is looking to erase the memory of his crazy decision making in Abu Dhabi, it cost him victory in the HSBC.

Obviously, I expect these two to contend, but their prices are slim given the depth of the field and I believe that there is better value elsewhere.

Brandt Snedeker is my main selection and this lad comes alive when he plays here. When you think about Sneds, you cant help but think about that little positive "pop" stroke he deploys with his putter. He often plays well early season and only injury set him back during 2013. He is fully recovered now and I expect the magic of Torrey Pines to light him up this week.

Hideki Matsuyama is the longest on the PGA Tour, hard to believe, but its true. He was ill and missed the Sony Open but is now well rested and ready to roll. This kid will win on the PGA Tour and is areal prospect for a Major, when his putting is on then he is deadly.

My picks all backed on Betfair are

Snedeker 24
Matsuyama 80
Russell Knox 380
Stuart Appleby 600

Omega Dubai Desert Classic

The first tow legs of the desert swing have been won by Spanish players in the shape of Sergio and Pablo and I rather fancy that the third leg may well go to a Spaniard too, this time in the shape of Rafa Cabrera Bello.

He has flattered in the last two events and of course was a desert winner in 2013, he enjoys these conditions. He is perhaps the fittest and hardest working of the young professionals and he has a game to match his physic. More importantly to us, he is a very tasty 28 with Betfair, I am on.

My full picks are;

Rafa Cabrera Bello 28
Seung yul Noh 100
Branden Grace 46
Henrik Stenson 10

Not a big bet, but still hoping for a nice return.

Bet Confirmation  - JC4415571020I  - Internet    Time of bet:  06/02/2014 00:33:49    Print
Selections
No.    Selections    Event    Event Date    E/W Terms    Odds    Result
1    George Coetzee    Joburg Open
(To Win Outright)    09/02/2014    5 Places
1/4 Odds    9/1    To Run
2    Jimmy Walker    AT& T Pebble Beach National Pro Am
(To Win Outright)    09/02/2014    5 Places
1/4 Odds    20/1    To Run
Multiples
Bet Type    No of Bets    Unit Stake    Stake    To Return    Returns
EW Doubles    1    5.00    10.00        
Total Stake: 10.00 
'To Return' values are subject to maximum payouts as detailed in our rules.

One down, one to go

The Honda Classic

One of the great PGA Tour events and shrouded in the history of the great Jack Nicklaus. The tournament ends as the players take on the final few holes collectively recognised as the Bear Trap, inspired by the Golden Bear himself.

Its a track that the top players enjoy, but there can be some truly bizarre winners too. In recent years the likes of Michael Thompson, Sabbatini and Villegas would all be long shots and I see some real value for my bets this week too.

I do like the chances of Hideki Matsuyama. He has been improving steadily and played great last week at Dove Mountain where he was mugged by Gmac when he must have thought he was through. He has a top game in all departments and I fancy he will be the first player from Japan to win a Major, though perhaps not this season.

Zach Johnson has been the only player to match Jimmy Walker in recent months and he makes his return to action this week as part of his Masters build up. He is never rusty and his game and focus will be spot on for this.

I like the look of Ryan Palmer and Luke Guthrie too, both big prices.

Matsuyama 36
Zach 28
Palmer 120
Guthrie 120

The Masters 2014

No Tiger Woods and that is always a body blow, especially for the great American TV audience, but true golf fans will still be glued to the screen this week, waiting for the drama to unfold as it surely will.
Is this the most open Masters ever? I think it just might be, with no current standout player, it really is completely open and you could make a case for probably 50% of the field.
I had hoped that the reuniting of Billy Foster and Lee Westwood might have delivered much better than it has thus far, but with such a turbulent couple of years, fixing all the problems takes time. Billy told me that Lee played the best he has in 2 years for the first 28 holes in Huston, the wind affected his game during the last two rounds and the swing changes they have been working on are still a little fragile. They are trying to get Lee back into the swing positions he had when he played his best and most consistent golf, when he has achieved that and gains a little more confidence, then he will be back in the world`s top ten for sure. Having said that, Billy still expects Lee to contend this week, even if winning the Green Jacket may be left to another year.
Course conditions always play a significant role at Augusta, so let me tell you on Monday the place was washed out and under water, it would suggest that Thursday conditions will see the course very soft and consequently, it will play very long. Soft conditions also help the long hitters as an errant tee shot may still stay short of the trees or primary rough, when its wet at Augusta, it is very much hit and stick.
Looking at the top dozen or so in the betting, I am bypassing several of these for the following reasons. Kuchar showed last week why he cant win this, he is also a fader of the ball and other than the 11th and 18th holes, it’s a soft draw that works around here. Sergio still struggles to put four rounds together and the putting will come under maximum scrutiny on greens that will stimp around 13 at the very least. Big Dustin pulled out in Huston after a first round where he failed to break 80 , Rose and Snedeker are out of form and Phil doesn’t look 100% but I still fear him.
Jason Day is a very skinny price given a largely poor win record and it will be interesting to see how he goes carrying significant expectation and his pal Ricky Fowler is destined to win at least one Major but he needs a little longer to bed in those dramatic swing changes.
Rose is out of form and I am not a Poulter fan on a long wet course and, I guess the same could be said of Zach, however, he is in great form and he can contend this week for sure.

One interesting stat is that only American or Australian players have won on the PGA Tour this year, quite amazing really, perhaps a pointer for Adam Scott. He has everything in his game but I just fancy he may come up a tad short, retaining a Major is a rarity and it may just be beyond the likeable Aussie this time.
My first pick is Rory , I am loving how he is striking it right now, he has the length, the ball flight and the short game and confidence to land his first Green Jacket. Cast your mind to his other Major victories and you will recall that these were delivered one wet and testing courses where length was an essential requirement, Rory is up there with the big hitters and his final round at in the Shell Huston Open last week told me that he is ready to strike. 12/1 ON Betfair may look short right now, but when he is heading up 18 with shots to spare, it will be looking pretty tasty then.
I backed Henrik Stenson several months ago for Augusta and then toyed with the idea of laying him as his form naturally dipped after such a stellar year in 2013. However, he has drifted to a decent price now and he clearly has the game to win here. He has been fiddling with his swing in recent weeks and perhaps a little too steep with some of the irons, he has the class and the mental strength to make a real fist of it this week and if he can stay in contention early, he can give Rory a run for his money, tasty price at the current 32/1.
Now I don’t know Charl Schwartzel personally, though I was surprised to learn from a friend that he served Charl this week in Florida, where the South African purchased all his clothing for Masters week, but I do know that there are more intellectual players on the Tour, lots more actually. Luckily for Charl, he does have a golf game and at his best he can look sublime, who can ever forget those last few holes and the putts he holed when he lifted his Green Jacket. He looked completely out of sorts with himself and indeed with golf in general in recent signs have been very good and I like what I have seen, last week too he looked back to something like his best. You can get 40/1 on Charl and that is real value and I see him making a top 5 finish.
Patrick Reed is my hero, well, his waistline is my hero ! In an era when the players spend as much time in the gym as they do on the range I take the view that Patrick may be eating a large jam sandwich as a reward for a good practise session and I rather like that “regular” guy so many of us might relate to. He is now a multiple winner on the PGA Tour and over very different courses which suggests he can adapt his game and guess what, he grew up around here and has had numerous rounds at Augusta. Local boy can come good, remember Larry Mize, another unexpected winner of the Masters. Reed is very confident and very relaxed and sadly he isn’t the price I hoped he might be, but of you shop around you may get bigger, Betfair have him at 65 and I am already on at bigger.
Keep an eye out for Angel Cabrera ( 70/1 ) this week, he loves it here and also Trevor Immelman ( 230/1 ) the former winner is almost back to his best and he has the ball striking game for a damp Augusta.

On the other markets, take the Even money a Hole In One and my two ball tournament match betting selections are as follows;

Zach to beat Dustin 2.08
Henrik to beat Bubba   2
Every to beat Matsuyama  2
Reed to beat Donaldson 2.1

Good luck

....and I thought my tips were bad ?
This chap couldn't have been more wrong if he'd tipped Tigger !

Comical read sir, many thanks.