EDGE BETS

im so excited

ed de gas 3.10 lingfield
reasons improving horse
good price in competitive race

yesterdays tip, right profile, wrong horse, fav was beaten, as expected.
last day of football season.man city, man utd
5 point double
bank -1
goodluck

all bets 1 point

And the edge is coming from where exactly?

last day of season always profitable bank +2.5
goodluck enjoy the winnings

All bets 1 point...?

little jimmy odsox 2.30 redcar
reason, good horse, got a chance
goodluckv

Is this 1pt or 5pts?

all bets 1 point, some bets will vary depending on their chances.

All bets are one point but some bets will not be one point.

Makes total sense.

little jimmy odsox run well, still made a profit.
should have another good season bank + 1.5

diamond blue 3.00 beverley
reasons lightly raced and running well
0.5 point win ( competitive race and taking on older horses)
goodluck

todays tip price crashed, but the winner had the best form, an oversight.
was no need to lose money, bank +1 tomoro hoof it 3.00 york 1 point win
goodluck

todays tip price crashed, made it trade bet. wasnt race fit.
bank level tomoros tip ancient cross, steps, magical macey
all 1 point wins 1.30 york goodluck

Are these selections based on "GOOD" going?

What happens if it pours rain overnight?

Never understand how anyone can say they have an "edge" and post bets the night before race.....without any mention of "subject to X going".....


ANCIENT CROSS.....won race last year on GOOD going....is carrying a stone more this year.........andyou still expect it to win? If it rains...and going is described as GOOD, Good to Soft in places.....is your selection tonight still a selection tomorrow?

STEPS Paper favourite.....Drawn 1......Is this a "good" draw in 5 Furlong sprint?

MAGICAL MACEY...2nd fav in paper market.....Won on SOFT and GOOD TO SOFT in last 2 races......What happens if going in GOOD GOOD to FIRM ip tomorrow?


============================================

Would not touch this race until GOING is reasonable clear for tomorrow........probably about 1 hour before race time.

GL with the "edge" bets.......

I'd say the going is an overated factor

Depends on what end of market you tend to bet on.........

If favourites, then they will win a certain percentage of races, and the going factor isprobably reflected in the market odds...

You would then believe that going is an overated factor ...possibly.

However, if you want to get bigger odds winners, then GOING is extremely relevant to where the winner might come form. Do you believe  66-1 or 33-1 or 20-1 SP winners have had the GOING FACTOR built into their odds? Clearly not.

Of course there are many other factors necessary to RATING a race, but GOING is always the key factor.......even for favourites.

Not particularly all that keen on 5 Furlong sprints....but have run the 1.30 race through my horse race rating system and below are the following horses in RATED ORDER .


YORK

13:30

1,Swiss Franc
2,Verinco
3,Bedloe's Island
4,Steps
5,Magical Macey
6,El Viento
7,Judge 'n Jury
8,Irish Heartbeat
9,Gramercy
============================================
10,Cocktail Charlie
11,Secret Witness
12,Hazelrigg
13,Doctor Parkes
14,Ancient Cross
15,Racy
16,Fitz Flyer


The top rated one appears to have a fair chance of running a good race...and might win at reasonable odds. I've backed most of top rated....with main staking on top 4 for this race. ANCIENT CROSS is main lay.....just as it happens ( never intended to lay this one.....it just happens to be in low rated ones, and the odds are acceptable for me to lay it. A 2nd LAY is on SECRET WITNESS....for far lower stakes. I might review the above ratings BEFORE RACE time....as GOING might change.

GL with bets.

what about hoof it tipped 7/2 day before, next day 9/4
free bet on horse that wasnt race fit, you lose no money.
going is a factor, selecting the winner is more important.
difficult race, judge and jurys carrying low weight.
those are my selections, always make a profit.
goodluck

As stated ....not keen on 5 Fs races....but a profit made mainly due to 2 LAYS in race...and small bet on winner....

You never mentioned JUDGE and JURY in your initial post ...so presumably not a bet on thread?

it was best handicapped in race. bank -3
thats why it won, steps was too young
get a winner soon

York 13:30 - Result
Betfred Mobile Sports Handicap
£20000 added, 4yo plus, 5f, Class 2, 16 ran
Winner £12938 2nd £3850 3rd £1924 4th £962
Going: Good
Surface: Turf


Pos.     Dr.     Dist.     Horse     Wt     Jockey     Trainer     Age     SP
1     5         Judge 'n Jury     8-7 t     Darren Edward Egan (7)     R Harris     8     10/1
     
2     15     nk     Secret Witness (ex6)     9-6 b     L Morris     R Harris     6     10/1
      opened 11/1 touched 11/1
3     14     1¼     Magical Macey (USA)     9-3 b     G Gibbons     T D Barron     5     12/1
      opened 11/1 touched 10/1
4     2     ½     Racy     8-13     P Makin     K A Ryan     5     8/1 cf
      opened 17/2 touched 9/1 £4500-£500
5     7     ½     Doctor Parkes     8-12     J Fortune     E J Alston     6     8/1 cf
      opened 9/1
6     12     nk     Bedloe's Island (IRE)     8-2     James P Sullivan     N Bycroft     7     40/1
      opened 33/1
7     6     nk     Irish Heartbeat (IRE)     8-10     Lee Topliss (3)     R A Fahey     7     8/1 cf
      opened 12/1 £3000-£240 Each Way £3000-£300
8     1     ½     Steps (IRE)     8-12     N Callan     R Varian     4     8/1 cf
     
9     3     s.h     Hazelrigg (IRE)     8-5 be     J Fanning     T D Easterby     7     16/1
     
10     9     ¾     Ancient Cross     9-5 t     P Mulrennan     M W Easterby     8     16/1
      opened 14/1
11     4     2¼     Fitz Flyer (IRE)     8-13     K Fallon     D Nicholls     6     11/1
      opened 12/1
12     10     ½     Swiss Franc     9-0     R L Moore     D R C Elsworth     7     16/1
      touched 18/1
13     11     hd     Cocktail Charlie     8-5     D Fentiman     T D Easterby     4     14/1
     
14     16     2     El Viento (FR)     8-11 b     T Hamilton     R A Fahey     4     16/1
     
15     8     ½     Verinco     9-3 v     Justin Newman (5)     B Smart     6     14/1
     
16     13     1     Gramercy (IRE)     9-7     J P Spencer     K A Ryan     5     16/1
      opened 16/1 touched 18/1

Tote Win: £10.90  Tote Place: £2.70,£2.90,£2.40,£2.40
Straight Forecast: £107.93  Tricast: £1283.10  Exacta: £102.70
Swingers:1&2:£16.30, 2&3:£21.10, 1&3:£16.50



For the record.

high resolution 7.25 hamilton
reason very competitive race,
few with chances price looks value
goodluck 1 point win

yesterdays tip well backed, made it a trade
bank -4 todays tip democrates 2.45 newmarket
reasons should prefer the ground c/d won class 2
downsides its vunerable to a fast finisher, open
race with improving horses. goodluck
next bet 5 point double west ham and frankel

mon brav 2.55 thirsk
reasons won race last year
good return lto, good trainer
1 point win goodluck

Tempted to back West Ham myself (1.98) seems reasonable though would like to see Blackpool promoted Good Luck.

democretes was well backed, made a good trade in open race
mon brav matched low, so no need to lose money, bank -6
palace moon was amazing price. FRANKEL best horse of all time.
expense claim looks good horse.

Nice double bubble

west ham are back in premiership. no commission to pay.
goodluck enjoy the winnings. bank +2 happy days. chelsea
win tonight, no champions league for spurs next season.

If anything, the going is underrated.

YUP

jeannie galloway 3.10 ripon  0.5 win
price has gone been well backed, it was value
reasons won mostly class 3 races, first run for
new trainer, bit high in weights, got a chance
goodluck

lady chaparral 4.10 ripon 0.5 win
difficult race, few with chances
reasons lightly raced, price is ok
forms not bad, danger licence to till
goodluck

no wins today, both horses matched low, favs beaten in races
bank + 1

running tomoro deloga bay 7.30 kempton
1 point win, unless the price is too low
reason impressive lto, hopefully can beat
its older rivals, has got more weight this time.
today another wise kid 3.40 redcar price has
gone now, got 6/1 last night, hopefully go well.

another wise kid, one to follow, was well backed and made for good trade.
racing post tipped the winner, convinced me to bet the fav, most of
papers went for it. could run that horse again soon and win.

deloga bay didnt run too badly. royal bajan made the profits today,
that horse is a class act at 5 f, one to follow. bank  level again.
tomoro marvo 2.00 lingfield reason good form just edges it.
1 point win goodluck,

Bank -1 ... just waiting on your next chasing double

Whoops missed your Marvo loss ... bank now -2

list of yesterdays bets for you
dont bet in maiden races, no doubt
you will find it difficult to believe
bank -1
cut across 2nd
availble 15/1
bilash 6/1
methayel 9/4
halstatt 11/2 2nd
st ignatius 15/1
resplendant alpha 5/1
do more business 6/1 2nd
lightning spirit 7/1 2nd
royal bajan 10/1
diplomatic 4/1

Sorry I didn't realise you count the selections you don't post on here .... like all good tipsters do ...

so for the selections you have posted on here ... bank is -2 ... Yes or No

you must be disappointed, just counted 14 losing horse tips on this thread.
bank -1 miracle. yeah the big bets where value, no doubt you layed frankel
again? 5.00 lingfield impris tagula horse thats won 3 times for me this season,
very difficult race. its not a bet on thread.

undern how did scatterdice run today, if I remember you backed it lto for win.
dont suppose you backed it today? you were raving about it last time it won.

I still don't know how on the 20th May you said this thread bank was +1 yet three out of three losing selections later your bank is not -2 ...

As for your list of bets ... sorry but I don't see any relevance to this thread ... other than making up some selections for you to look crap (or perhaps poor at best) ...

As for Frankel - I didn't bet at all - however you fail to understand the concept that it doesn't matter if a horse wins or loses it is more important (to me) if I can get a trade on it inrunning ...

This is a BACK betting thread ... please bear that in mind the next time you post up a selection on here

wealth warning. on losing run of tips.
bronze prince, katosi, citrus star 3.10 goodwood
reasons, primaeval has strong form, on balance
take it on with my selections, 0.5 point wins
goodluck

I can't really make sense of what you're advising.

go and follow someone you can make sense of. better still choose your own bets.

I do. I do.

I'll be honest I was just mocking you because I find you to be an idiot. I hope nobody follows your bets for their sake.

losing run continues, formbook always wins longterm
best form horse won primeval. bank -2.5

Bank is now -3.5 pts ... hopefully you have some more today

Bank is now -3.5 pts ... hopefully you have some more today

expense claim 3.45 goodwood
reason impressive win lto, hopefully
will improve today, 1 point win
goodluck

Going totally different today than when it won....and some lightly raced horses that can also "improve".......so doubts on the selection winning...and even if it does......are the odds worth backing it?

horse is inform and its better price than fav, as I said before, horse to follow.
favourites entitled to its place as market leader, well bred. goodluck

Horse ran 3 times without winning.....against comparatively unexposed horses...fav + PERENNIAL...Don't like shape of race for your selection winning...one of other 2 likely to win..

At least your odds are better than thought they might be....GL

expense claim run its race, matched ir very low. well bred fav confirmed the formbook.
matched at silly prices michelangelo, losing run continues bank - 3.5 get a winner tomoro

secret witness, fratellino 3.45 york. sole power 3.00 haydock all 0.5 wins
reasons york race inform horse and another with a chance, sole power
just edge it on last seasons win, hopefully beat bated breath, danger horse.
goodluck

Your bank is now -4.5 pts ... all the best today

you must of a made fortune laying expense claim yesterday, you did get my message.

Sorry but I don't "blindly" lay your selections ....

Worst reasoning ever. Sounds like the old man down at the local bookie who thinks he is Tom Segal because he buys the Post every morning.

think Sole Power will do quite well

That's good enough for me undern. Full bank job.

no wins today, sole power run well, notebook horse dancing freddy
was great win today, sent that this week to millionaire on horse racing
forum, hes very clever, usually posts late. bank -5