ROI Figures for Sports Betting

it depends on what sports and markets within those sports as well. If you are betting mostly on Soccer and within that you are playing on Match Odds i would be aiming for 4%.

If your betting on Golf Outrights i would be looking for 8%.

The reason for the differnece is the number of bets you can place over a year.There will be more variance in some sports so you will need a greater expected return.

Soccer/Tennis/Racing are high turnover low margin sports.

I'd say 1-5% is achievable in most sports if you are selective and get the best odds and get your bets on at the right time etc.

If you manage to get 10%+ you are doing very well but it'd be better to have a lower ROI and be able to have a greater turnover.

Since January I have been pricing up all Premier League matches and after 158 bets at level stakes my ROI is 23.98% but I don't expect this to continue! Although it would be nice! :)

yeah I agree with that I would much prefer a ROI of 4 - 5 % on 5 -6 bets a week than a 10% on 1 or 2 bets a week.

I think I will look to target between 3 and 5 % then going forward.

squirrel - what sports/markets do you bet on?

Mainly football (75% premiership), bit of cricket and just started with the golf but very low stakes to see how I get on.

Just in case you are interested, here is my spreadsheet I have used to make my selections on the prem 23.98% ROI since January: http://www.betfairbanter.co.uk/PremierLeagueBets.xlsx

I just input the % estimates and the odds available and the sheet tells me where the value lies.

I post these on my blog and I will probably do it for the Euros too. I also do a tip of the day which is at a more modest 11.94% ROI since the end of Feb: www.betfairbanter.co.uk/TipOfTheDay.xlsx

How do you create your ratings? I will have a look at the blog looks good.

Thanks. I just try and allocate what I think are accurate and realistic percentages based on form, team news etc, with the average PL h/a/d percentages in mind too.

It's good because quite often there are odds on bets that I would have bet on in the past but the sheet immediately tells me that because I only think this team win 70% of the time then 1.25 is not value. I think once people think of bets in terms of a percentage and how many times out of 100 you expect it to come in and compare this with the odds, then it's much easier to deduce value.

0.1%

"ROI for show, ROBG for dough"

http://green-all-over.blogspot.co.uk/2011/04/value-kelly-and-roi-blog-post-of-year.html

Being selective on finding draws (the famous XX Draws) gives an ROI after 153 bets this season of 13% on the draw and 20% on the Under, but you can grow the bank more at the cost of the ROI by including 'fringe' selections.

ROI isn't everything.

ROBG ?

So, in summary...Return on Investment for show, Rate of Bank Growth for dough

You guys do too much reading.
If you think it will win, back it.  The more certain you are, the bigger you bet.
You're lifetime P&L will tell you if you're successful or not.

The mathematicians will claim to be doing something different.  But ultimately it comes down to how good you are at picking winners  - or as they like to call it, probability of events occurring.  If their model is wrong, they lose, no matter how good at maths they are.

So Mr. Angry, you're convinced Bolton are going to win against Barcelona, yet the only odds on offer are 1/3.

Do you take the 1/3?

Mr Angry - to quote Victor Meldrew "What language are you talking in now? It appears to be bollocks".

Successful betting is not about finding winners, it's about finding value, as I suspect you well understand.

The simple fact of the matter is that the only way to consistently win is by making bets that are value. If you are a long-term winner, then you are finding value (even if you are blissfully unaware of it). If you are a long-term loser, then your bets are not value. It is that simple.

cpfc
" --finding value ( even if you are blissfully unaware of it ).
What a lovely turn of phrase.
And how so very, very true.
There would seem to be many on here who can make money betting on sports events that they are either totally uninterested in or totally lacking knowledge of the technical intricacies involved.
In fact blissfully unaware and totally unconcerned by how the relevant betting prices are calculated.
And yet they make money taking these prices without any serious reservations, as long as they are in the ballpark of reasonableness.
Pretty amazing when you think of it.
Just goes to show perhaps that value is such an iffy quantitative matter, and perhaps not as overridingly important as many people think ?
Pretty amazing eh ?

The simple fact of the matter is that the only way to consistently win is by making bets that are value. If you are a long-term winner, then you are finding value (even if you are blissfully unaware of it). If you are a long-term loser, then your bets are not value. It is that simple.

How do you know if you're mathematical model is finding value?

Because you are winning long term?
And why are you winning long term? Because you are finding value.
All a bit circular, isn't it ?

Indeed.  Even mathematicians are "picking winners".  They're just using a model to do so.

value has nothing to do with a model

Of course it does.  The model is used to determine probabilities.  The probabilities are used to determine value against prices.

Beg to differ.

imho: probabilties are present but are not observable, and if you are is betting with probabilities on your side then you are 'getting value'.

FAFH "the ballpark of reasonableness" also a lovely turn of phrase! Sounds like a Billy Bragg song.

Back to value, and if you are winning long-term, you are finding value.

Models give you probabilities, i.e. a price. Compare your price with the market and bet accordingly. If your model is accurate, the profits will come.

In other words, we are all in the "predicting game".

Frog: "Because you are winning long term?"

Obviously I agree with that, but what would you consider long term? If we're expecting a ROI of 2%, then the long term is indeed very long?

500 bets? 1000 bets? 5000 bets? I have a ROI of about 2% over 1000 bets. Should I feel confident that I'm winning long term? What is my 95% confidence interval?

Unfortunately I've forgotten how to calculate that, so maybe somebody could help ;)

I'm afraid that I'm no stsistician either feix.
But I do know that the answer is going to involve knowing the sort of prices involved in the 1000 bets you have made.

You will need to know yr variance also. If every bet is traded off for a 2% profit, then yr interval will be narrower.

In response to the original questioner, you wd be better off to ask y/s rather, 'how much money do I want to win?' and 'what kind of life do I want to have?'

There are people on here who are making in the high tens of thousands w/ a very good pricing model, a low margin and stomach-churning variance on bets and small sets of bets and an investment of almost all the hours God sends.

Then there are people w/ a much higher ROI betting as a profitable and enjoyable sideline. The money they get from a salary serves as a hedge for swings in results.

Imv, it's rare for someone who can make money betting not being able to make considerably more money doing something else. The exception will be people who temperament means they are bad at suffering fools or working for others.

The reason is that a lot of the value of people's activities is inherent in things like trust, familiarity, confidence in other people i.e. in human relationships; and in gambling, a horse is not more likely to win because yr friend told you to back it. (I'm not talking about 'information' here).

Nice post that askari1, spot on :)