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SquirrelJ
04 May 12 08:24
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Date Joined: 19 Mar 04
| Topic/replies: 165 | Blogger: SquirrelJ's blog
Is there any formula/technique to work out/estimate what a team’s price would be in a final after the semi-final by comparing the to qualify and winners market?
So if you took the current play offs or champions league semi final etc, if you looked at the winners market and compared this with the to qualify market could you estimate what price Team A would be if they won their semi-final tie?

Or is there another way to do it? I am just after a way to estimate roughly what price a team would be if they won their semi-final with regard to the winners market.
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Report ShirleyKnot May 4, 2012 9:47 AM BST
This may not be how many people would do it but to get an approximation I would calc as follows.

Eg:  Dutched odds of Birmingham at 4.1 and Blackpool at 5.0 is 2.25.  Therefore Wham should be 1.8 if they reach the final.  A little bigger than 1.8 if Birmingham qualify and a little less if Blackpool do.
Report ShirleyKnot May 4, 2012 10:09 AM BST
You will note, however that this method is fundamentally flawed if you are trying to find Cardiffs price.
Report SquirrelJ May 4, 2012 10:32 AM BST
Thanks for that, no it was something I thought of after the event so might look into for some of the other play offs, it's useful to know if you are wanting to trade on the market etc. I will test it on paper over the next few weeks.
Report DonNo1 May 4, 2012 1:29 PM BST
Yes, divide the winner market price by the price to qualify
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