I have a theory about betting,[what do others think].

i would stress im not moaning in anyway , just stating my theory based on my experiences.

Breaking even long term is difficult.

Bookies Overounds and Commission on here mean you have to be a lot better than average to break even.

and in many ways lucky too, some of the games ive bet on in the last day should have come in but for some reason just didnt go my way, thats life

you cant win laying as the betfair odds are way too big compared to the bookmaker.

you can just about win backing if your odds are around 30% bigger than the bookmaker.

or you have a massive strike rate advantage
or you have found a way to make martingale work.

prove to me Im wrong and youve got that grail thing that every one wants.

if you bet for fun then who cares.

you cant win laying as the betfair odds are way too big compared to the bookmaker.


  yeah, all us layers are altruistic souls...just giving ££££ away!!! You fool.

nope - you just have a massive strike rate advantage - fool for not reading what I said. eh ?

mikenz  - you mentioned the word 'games' a couple of times. That's where you're going wrong mate. You might as well just send your wallet into Betfair and say help yourself.

He could've meant football games or any other kind of 'games' in the sports betting world.

you just have a massive strike rate advantage


i dont even know what that means!

Strike rate by itself means nothing

as a betting musician mate once said to me 


if you're OK scale up


if you're not so good

scale down

i was talking about soccer games not instant games , casino etc, been there , wised up.

and while i say i bet for fun i still within that bet to win, thats the motivating factor, winning.

Strike rate by itself means nothing

100% strike rate does !


ooooh dont get me started on that topic...

further to thread i started i was always sort of of the opinion that by careful betting without doing anything silly i could make something like a hundred bucks a day , 6 or 7 hundred a week, not massive but still good money, but you just seem to get that one game that stuffs ya every time, that was my theory on bet 365 , ive made just under a hundred there today too[4 bets],with some of the alternative points in rugby , league especiaaly, here ive made just over a hundred for the day, if i could do this every day would be good but as i stated that one game gets ya everytime, thats the thing that stifles ya theory .

But no matter what i still enjoy the challenge, thats the most important part , enjoyement.

AND  i reckon its true too that when you start betting online on live games you tend to go a bit silly like a  kid in a lolly shop but i think ive  learnt the hard way about disciline and  patience sorta see where i go wrong , hoping for better results from now on, and i have one theory that i know is right , you cant change the past, but only the future so whos to say after a couple of years of learning the ropes will make a better return in the future, it does take time.

perhaps i shoudnt say [ learning the hard way]but looking at some of  the betting i was doing, such as hits in baseball , runs in baseball, points in basketball sorta see some of them as just 50 50 stab in the dark bets ,mostly canned them all now, just stick to the markets , options that give the best chance of a return, i guess thats the learning process you need to go through.

The word youre looking for is Stochastic whose definition explains why you cant win without having an edge. Also having a basic understanding of the deviation from the mean helps a lot too, as to why that loser comes along to stuff your good intentions. All  things come back to the mean but its journey can be very volatile. You either need to understand the maths or get lucky.  Its a sobering thought and so far, totally unhelpful

these maths geeks make me laugh with their unequivocal statements...i know many people that do not 'understand the maths' and yet have been making regular profits for 20 yrs....sure they have an edge (ie they havent got lucky for 2 decades!)- they understand their subject better than the vast majority...the maths can take care of itself.

sure they have an edge

...the maths can take care of itself.

exactly what I said !

maths doesn't take care of anything ,you need psychology in betting as much as maths

maths will get you to the airport ,but you still need to fly the plane

You know what? youre absolutely right. Controlling the psychology is a huge part of this.
Seeing a plan through is one of the greatest hurdles to get over to be profitable.
So often one stops systematically betting prematurely due to psycholigical reasons rather than a 'factual' (if thats the right word) reason.

only going by my own experiences lex really

yes,and keeping the confidence up after  a run of losers

I WANT TO KNOW WHO THESE WINNERS ARE ,I KNOW MORE PEOPLE THATS BEEN TO THE MOON THAN THEM THATS WON LONG TERM AT GAMBLING .

I DONT KNOW ONE GAMBLER WHO WINS,AND BUZZ LIGHTYEAR SAID HE KNOWS NO ONE ON THE MOON THAT WINS

THIS 2% THAT WIN ARE SAT ON COURSE WAITING FOR THE STALLS NOT TO OPEN ,OR WAITING FOR  HORSES  TO FALL AT FENCES OR TAKE ING THE WRONG COURSE ,OR SAT AT TURNBURY WAITING FOR A GOLF BALL TO DROP IN THE HOLE ,

SOME PEOPLE GET TO KNOW WHEN A HORSE HAS GALL STONES THEY LAY THEM AND NEVER TELL ANY ONE

Do wah, i know you find it hard to believe but some people do win just by studying form the right way...not many maybe and obviously not anyone that's crossed your path.

Lex
29 Apr 12 11:35

sure they have an edge

...the maths can take care of itself.

exactly what I said !


No, you said 'You either need to understand the maths or get lucky.'....i was pointing out you need neither.

Skill.Discipline & Patience.

If you haven't got these.you will not win long term.

Might as well jack it in now

true pinot,after time you need to reavaluate things,either go forward ,even in small steps or jack it in.

Duncan -  you got an edge right? (not ledge btw)

and you make money cos of that edge - right ?

Well then, the maths takes care of its self. innit

c'mon Duncan; youre not that fick that you dont understand this basic point ? nah, youre just teasing...

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All done by laying horses  liability  50 quid .




So whoever said you cant win laying on here is insane .

Do some research and its fairly easy unless you are an addict

ALL THE BEST

IM AN ADDICT AND THICK THATS PROBERBLY WHY I CANT MAKE IT PAY ,I ALSO HAVE NO DISCIPLINE ,

AND PROBERLY INSANE ,BUT I CANT GET A CERTIFICATE

you're talking in riddles, Lex....i'm out

of course i understand the maths take care of itself if you are winning with your edge....but your initial statement of 'You either need to understand the maths or get lucky.' is a contradiction of that. Now i'm out!

That should be "Im ooot" Duncan

cheers for the banter.

Zealot

In an interview a multi millionaire ex market trader said he made his huge wealth from buying a barrow and building his business because he was turned down from a menial council job due to the fact that he couldnt read.

"just imagine what you could have achieved if you could read!" enquired the interviewer.

"Yes" said the millinaire  " I could be cleaning public toilets"