How frustrating can this be?

Sounds like you green up as soon as you get into a winning position, but let your losing positions ride instead of redding them up. A common trait I think.

An edge usually consists of obtaining better than true odds i.e. backing a 2.6 shot at 2.8, but it sounds like you pick teams to win based on your criteria. You may have just been lucky so far in getting 17 out of 22 correct, personally I don't see how anyone can predict the outcome of an event consistently enough to make profits unless they're getting odds better than true value, that's the key.

If I was you I would either red or green up at a certain point consistently, or just let them all ride.

Thanks for your response Trevh.
I agree that it is extremely unlikely to predict outcomes consistently in the long run.
The problem was not greening up too soon....the problem was redding up too soon, as I was afraid of losing everything and the goals I needed just happened at the end of the matches.
Thanks also for the explanation about "the edge"! ;)

BlackBelt, an edge in sportsbetting is impossible to explain as it's all about opinions.  Only way to tell if you have an edge is by being a long term winner and therefore a better judge than the market on average.
  One important thing though - An edge is worth nothing if your bank management/staking plan is bad.

If you bet smaller, you might not feel the urge to red up.

Different people work differently psychologically, but if it's the redding up and finding you would have won that's frustrating you, then bet smaller initially and let it run.

Alternatively, prepare yourself in advance and work out when you will and when you won't red up. That way you won't be so frustrated because you're following a plan you decided before things got exciting/intense.

, could you show us an example of the''bad management/staking plan'' you mention ?
I've seen this expression used many times and wondered.

An infinite number of those, all in every bet being the most obvious one, but basicially every one that can make you go bust when on a bad run.

Hello there Blackbelt.

Forget about your edge that is not important right at the moment (although it will be later). You've only just started using betfair so you need to learn all about it, learn how the prices move, pre-match, in-play, liquidity, what markets you like dealing with. Just get a feel for it and read some literature, and work out what trading/betting style suits you.

You will find your edge in time if you are good enough/have the time and inclination. The big problem for you at the moment appears to be patience, which you also need to master. Lack of patience leads to greed which is a complete killer in the betting world.

You mention that you are frustrated with your betting but you have grown your bank by a third in 3/4 weeks. I wish i could increase my bank by that amount in that timescale. Maybe because you have overstaked, i don't know. Again overstaking is down to lack of patience.

You should pretend that your £67 is £67K and deal in percentages. Get the basics right so if at some point in the future you do scale up you wont be in for any nasty suprises. Don't underestimate the psychological pitfalls that surround gambling. It's always best to learn with a small bank than a big one.

I don't personally have anything to do with football.

But it sounds like you may be more knowledgeable than average,but your judgement is being impaired /influenced by fear.This is not uncommon.

The bottom line for me is Not to Lose,winning is a bonus.hence I don't win large amounts,but also do not lose..overall.

If you lay out £20 for ex,your bet is running for 90 mins,what would you be happy to win.or consider reasonable..You have to consider the fact that a small regular profit with a No Lose scenario is more desirable than the stress and risk of larger losses,and everyone will back far more LOSERS than WINNERS.

GL anyway.think you sound like a potential winner,long term.

Thanks for all the kind responses!
I think this won't be my last post then! lol
I'll try to be more patient and follow your advices. I didn't know it would be so hard to learn and maybe this fact made me feel frustrated...plus it's really hard to find concrete advice online (by concrete I mean how to act when the markets do a particular movement, or what's the best strategy to hedge your position when you feel in-play that your original bet is fragile, or how a particular market moves depending on its starting odds, things like that...); but I think I will have to analyze the markets I trade in and make my own conclusions after a lot of time learning and making mistakes...thanks again!
I'll also try to be more active in other posts...an active community is what makes people learn and develop themselves I think.
Cheers!

It seems you get impatient waiting for the match
moving in your favour, examples, maybe backing 'overs'
with no goal after, say 20 mins, the team you back,
again no goal after the same 20 mins and you opting
out with a smallish loss etc. As someone else says,
perhaps you should stick with your original pick,
or make a decision pre kickoff, what you will do given
certain circumstances occurring. You say you had 17
successful picks from 23, and that is very high except,
of course, very short priced picks. Based on what you
have said, maybe you shouldn't bet in running, cause
it's very hard to get right. BTW rather than ask about
other people's edge, maybe you should tell us how you
get 17 from 23 !!

I am betting on the Match Odds market...so I usually just analyze the matches of leagues that I know well and pick those teams that I think have a very high probability (according to my assessment, of course) of winning given their opponnents, their motivations (relegation, fighting for title, for a spot at european competition, etc), their injuries/suspensions, and of course the price that is on offer...I usually do not bet on anything that is lower than 1.30
The average price of my 22 bets was 1.65-1.70 more or less...
My only concern of not using in-play and letting the bets run is that I don't need a betting exchange to do that, right? I don't to learn how to trade...it's pure gambling.

Blackbelt - maybe you don't need an exchange at all as you say.

Despite the marketing, BF is rarely best price on favoured selections across most sports. e.g ManU tonight 2.38 with Stan James, 2.34 on here and of course no commission with Stan James - so in the long run that makes a huge difference to your P&L.

One other thing 17 from 22 is good at the average odds you have backed at, but it is by no means exceptional and is of such a short sample that you don't know either way yet whether you are good or not.  1700 from 2200 at these odds would be a different story.

Seems to me that you should just let your bets ride, be sure to get the best possible price in each situtation and mostly that will mean using traditional bookies if you can still get on.

Play about with in-running by all means but probably best to use a separate set amount of money to minimum stakes just to get a feel for things.

Seems the OP is backing short priced favourites so 17 from 22
is not unusual over a short run therefore he should be aware of that.
For sure he won't be able to keep it up (17 from 22 average price 1.6)
and IMO, as his original picks are less successful, he will have a
good chance to hone his prowess as an i/r punter.
BTW I agree with the above post by TheVis in its entirity.

win one bet with stan james and you'll never be able to take a price again

so all these best prices are useless cos you can never get on.

tonight it was uni bets turn to f u c k me over. Only safe place to play is here.

Here and Pinnacle...

Betfair is the best, but for straight bets, shop around.

Why would bookies limit or ban you after one successful bet? They use somebody else's money to pay you out. I've heard it said many times and it's still one of things that is unfathomable to me.

I.quit.my.country is exaggerating of course, but it is true stan james limit extremely fast, as do ****.

In my own case I was limited to peanuts after a grand total of 10 bets.

Later I opened an account with Betpack, which is a Stan James clone. I bet mainly on big events, which increased the lifespan of £100+ bets to 22:

Football Match    Selection    Date Placed    Match Date    Odds    Stake    PnL
Scunthorpe United v Doncaster Rovers    Doncaster Rovers    14/10/2010    16/10/2010    2.88    £100.00    -£100.00
Dundee Utd v Celtic : Match Odds    Celtic    17/10/2010    17/10/2010    1.73    £50.00    £36.50
Galatasaray v Ankaragucu : Match Odds    Ankaragucu    16/10/2010    17/10/2010    8.5    £50.00    £375.00
Palermo v Bologna : Match Odds    Palermo    14/10/2010    17/10/2010    1.7    £200.00    £140.00
Ajax v Auxerre : Match Odds    Ajax    16/10/2010    19/10/2010    1.73    £200.00    £146.00
Coventry v Cardiff : Match Odds    Cardiff    18/10/2010    19/10/2010    2.5    £200.00    £300.00
Leeds v Leicester : Match Odds    Leicester    19/10/2010    19/10/2010    3.2    £100.00    £220.00
Swansea v QPR : Match Odds    Swansea    19/10/2010    19/10/2010    2.5    £200.00    -£200.00
Panathinaikos v Rubin Kazan : Match Odds    Draw    17/10/2010    20/10/2010    3.5    £200.00    £500.00
Rangers v Valencia : Match Odds    Valencia    18/10/2010    20/10/2010    2.25    £200.00    -£200.00
Rangers v Valencia : Match Odds    Valencia    19/10/2010    20/10/2010    2.2    £300.00    -£300.00
Aris Thes. v Leverkusen : Match Odds    Leverkusen    18/10/2010    21/10/2010    2.2    £500.00    -£500.00
Debrecen v PSV : Match Odds    PSV    19/10/2010    21/10/2010    1.57    £50.00    £28.50
Karpaty v Sevilla : Match Odds    Sevilla    18/10/2010    21/10/2010    2.1    £200.00    £220.00
Karpaty v Sevilla : Match Odds    Sevilla    19/10/2010    21/10/2010    2.05    £300.00    £315.00
Karpaty v Sevilla : Match Odds    Sevilla    20/10/2010    21/10/2010    2    £200.00    £200.00
Stuttgart v Getafe : Match Odds    Stuttgart    18/10/2010    21/10/2010    2.1    £200.00    £220.00
Stuttgart v Getafe : Match Odds    Stuttgart    21/10/2010    21/10/2010    2.1    £500.00    £550.00
Zaragoza v Barcelona : Match Odds    Barcelona    21/10/2010    23/10/2010    1.29    £200.00    £58.00
Leverkusen v Mainz : Match Odds    Leverkusen    21/10/2010    24/10/2010    1.91    £200.00    -£200.00
Leverkusen v Mainz : Match Odds    Leverkusen    21/10/2010    24/10/2010    1.91    £500.00    -£500.00

**** limited me after about 10 bets.

Coral limited me to £50 per bet, and I found about a dozen value bets a day for £50 each and completely hammered them, so they closed my account completely.

Betsson closed my account and confiscated my funds. This is an ongoing matter about which I have complained to the Maltese lotteries and Gaming Authority and I will take them to court if necessary to get back the £550 they stole from me.


It's a tricky business.

I don't know how to operate to keep accounts open, but I've mainly given up on stuff other than betting exchanges and pinnacle, which accepts large bets.

***=spoilsports

TI, are they arbs or just bets? I had you down as more of a trader than a position taker?

Why do you think Pinnacle accept large bets, yet other bookies restrict accounts? If bookies are making books, why would they want to limit anyone, they choose their own prices and can accept or reject any money and alter prices as necessary, I would have thought it was a case of the more punters the merrier? Would you reject punters money on your offers and restrict them, or alter the offer and hope to keep their custom?

Pinnacle accept large bets as they trust their odds compilers who are very very sharp. SJ, BS, 365 etc are often out of line because they are usually wrong!

It's not so much about trusting their odds compilers as being smart enough to get the customers to price things up for them.