Trading vs Betting

would like to get into trading a bit mate .
Used to do a little bit a while ago - just backing and laying a touch lower and greening up , but after a good start it ebbed away .
any advice on getting my trading back up again .
cheers

Any favourite markets?

Luso,
My Markets are similar to you, football, horses and cricket
What tips do you have for good strategy's? as after a couple of years of trying, i still havent developed a good profit making strategy.

The easiest strategy of making some profit with almost no risk must be scalping a few ticks on the favourite horses using a reliable chart.  To start making a significant profit you have to start playing with around £200. But there's little, or no risk of ever losing this amount. To start with you can start with £2 bets to test the market.

Tools (free):
- GeeksToy
- QuantSports
- NinjaTrader

Then it's a matter of playing with these tools for a few weeks.

Once you have charts like this (from QuantSports and NinjaTrader) you can make some significant ROI using GeeksToy ladder:
http://img180.imageshack.us/img180/2117/toutregulier190820105se.jpg

No systems. No rocket science. Just do what the charts tell you.

Check the racecards, study the charts, find warning flags that work for you, change the settings of the tools to suit you betting style, etc, etc.

Works for every market, but obviously markets with lots of price movements work better (horse racing).

If you need further details just ask.

Luso

luso, I had an e-mail about 5 free betting bots at free betting bots dot com, are these the one's you use?

I don't use any bots!

I mostly trade the market using charts and indicators similar to financial markets.

How do I download Ninja Trader once I have recieved the link from QuantSports? Ninja Trader wants to know which broker I use etc

You don't need to add those details.  You can even use NinjaTrader as a testing platform using your own input for up/down market movements.

Quant is producing an error when i try to map a selection. Ninja is saying i need a reg key :(

Ignore the error.  It does that because NinjaTrader is not connected yet. For the reg key??? Probably check your email.

Is Ninja trader free?

In the Ninja application form do I leave the 'I was referred to' and ' My broker is' lines blank?

Which class do I say I trade futures, forex or equities?

Free? Yes. 

Lines?
I cannot remember.  But I think I left them blank.

I have to enter who my broker is to request the reg key e-mail..

I've got it now Luso. I will probably get back to you regarding the graphs and analysis.. Cheers :D

Happy to help - just ask.

But...

If someone gave me ALL the instructions, including step-by-step guides, I am sure I wouldn't be as efficient when trading. It comes from experience, trial-and-error, and a lot of perseverance.

And of course a small bank that gives you the opportunity to test strategies.

But as always, happy to help!

Hi Luso,
i read your posts and i did download ninjatrader,for charting, but how i get data from betfair?
thanks in advance

you need to register and download manuals from quant sports

Thanks aceporty.

Yes carei QuantSport provides a link between Betfair and NinjaTrader.

Thanks Aceporty and Luso, but still not working, i read all the manual, i load quantsport with my slection with no problem but on ninjatrader do not show anything,or maybe i missing something. I apologies but im not very good with programing.
Thanks

You have connect to NinjaTrader to External Data Feed (in File menu)

Then create a new chart (also in the File menu).  There you will be able to connect to your race/horse. Or your market/selection.

Thank you Luso now is working.

People post some of your charts and indicators!

This chart from a few minutes ago.

Waited for 'Mon Visage' for about 20 minutes, and little or no price movement. Then 3 minutes before the start, classic down/up movement.  Able to bet about 10 ticks going down, and about 5 going up. In less than 1 minute.

Nice and easy.  Just reading the charts.

The chart only contains the last few minutes, because before there were no clear opportunities.  See the chart here:
http://img831.imageshack.us/f/monvisage071020105secon.jpg/

Thanks for posting Luso. You are a true gentleman.

No problems.  Just enjoying myself now.  After months of failures, the last few weeks have been PERFECT.  No guessing!  Little homework!  Just watching the indicators, and making the right decisions. [smiley:crazy]

Also considering starting a blog to freely share this knowledge. Not sure if other betfair users would be interested in something like that.

Luso,
Do that,this tread has been a great help.
Thanks.

How many of the people on this thread are the same person?

You mean how many wonderful people like Luso are really out there?
Generous to a fault, and so, so polite.

I think Lori means just how much tinned ham is in this sandwich.

Still I don't mind, The Toys getting some free publicity out of it.  [;)]

No 'tinned ham' GeeksToy.

By the way thanks for your tool - LOVE IT!

But if people think I am doing this to sell something, or advertise something, then might as well just enjoy the few charts I posted.

I think this is the downfall of the betfair community - no one trusts each other. I guess when you are 'gambling' against everyone else that's the rules of the game.

Maybe that's what's needed - an elite community of betfair users that trust each other.

If people are interested - I might be willing to invest some time and effort on an online community - but there needs to be some support from serious betfair users and maybe be an 'invitation only' system.

Give us your feedback!

Thanks Lori!?!?

That's the reason betfair profitability remains restricted to such an exclusive club.  The ones that are able to accomplish any profit do not share any knowledge and intell.  Exploiting the masses is part of the betfair system.

For anyone with any queries, please don't hesitate to contact me - send me an email to alliantce (at) gmail (dot) com.  As always I willing to help. And Lori - no I don't charge for any email requests, or sell anything in return. Just plain and simple help.  There's still people in the world that like to help, and only expect and 'THANK YOU' in return.

Hi Luso,  SmarterSig.com are looking for article writers on trading and they pay for your time and effort. Might be worth contacting them.

I like your pictures luso. Do you use all 6 of those charts to make a decision or is it more a case of watching a main chart and checking for confirmation on one or more other charts when you see something?

Hi Fred!,

I use mainly 6 main indicators to warn me. And then another 6 secondary indicators to support any decisions. It depends on the market, and how markets are behaving!

Luso

Wow, 12 indicators, you must see charts in your sleep!

I like bots myself. Do you think you could ever automate your trading?

1 chart = 12 indicators. It's not a lot.  You mainly look at 3 main ones.

I don't use bots!

luso... you spelled your name wrong.

In October 2003 a young man called Adam Todd came on here telling everyone (actually it wasn't everyone it was one guy in particular who had shown an interest, but never mind) how to trade the pre race markets. He believed that by telling people what he was doing couldn't hurt his profitability.

Need I continue?

Read some (a lot)Brett Steenbarger to realise why Quantsports is free.

There was a time when some people would hang around the ring hoping and waiting for "faces" to play. If they could they would listen to the bet being called and then follow in. They had no opinion themselves and trusted entirely to the opinion of others. The effect would be to further depress the price on the selection.

The debate about the relative role of traders and gamblers (or people with opinions) in the modern day is still the same. No opinions/faces , no action to follow.It takes years to develop enough knowhow to play the horses , it takes days to learn how to trade using charts.

Its not just about making money, its about how you make it, isn't it? Or it should be if you have any pride.I'm sure that many will disagree with me, not that concerns me at all.

Have to agree with Bung It On here, make any edge you have public knowledge and as if by magic in a short amount of time it is no longer an edge.

The 'edge' as you define it cannot be massively affected if the 'edge' is only known by an exclusive elite group.

For example if there's £500k liquidity on a favourite horse. Let's say the average bet is £100. So there's around 5000 individual betfair users betting on that race/horse.  Out of those 5000, probably 50% only back/lay using market knowledge and wait until race completion. 25% probably use market knowledge and bet using some kind of system i.e. laying favourites. 15% probably don't know a lot about the market and try their luck, probably backing the favourite. Which leaves around 10% of betfair users that trade the pre-race markets. Within that 10% of traders there's probably thousands of different systems, edges, and magic spells.

In theory you probably only ever directly competing against 5% (250) maximum of betfair users. If those 250 users join up, and use their edge/system against 95% of other betfair users, their efforts as a group should provide a significant ROI.

Not exact science, but just an example.

Or maybe I am wrong, and should only invest my time and effort in betfair trading - FULL STOP. Maybe it's a bad idea if I create a community that shares knowledge about trading horses using charts and indicators.

Hi Luso,
Could you help me out with setting all this up as i am pulling my hair out here lol
I have download the Quantsports and Nina Trader but cant fathom out how to get them to connect?????
Confused.com :)

Hi wehey23. Check the previous page.  There are some basic instructions there.

Hi Luso.....i have done that and just cant figure it out!!!

Send me and email (check previous page) and explain what you did so far. I will see what I can do.

You carry on mate, like I said earlier The Toy's getting free publicity out of this thread, so I'm not complaining at all. 

No probs! Happy to give something in return! [smiley:crazy]

People listen up. GeeksToy + QuanSports + NinjaTrader + Experience = £

So, given that Toy has never been scared to do his own spamming, which of the other two are you spamming for?

Spamming FREE tools.  Yah right! [smiley:crazy]

Oi, not once have I ever posted a thread up here advertising The Toy.  If people ask me questions about it on here, it would be pretty poor not to answer.

And if know all wants to have a mass debate on the merits of software, who am I not to entertain him.  And if Ghetto Joe and yourself want to make accusations of spamming, who am I not to argue the point when all I do is post on topics of interest here.  Or did you miss the fact that quite a lot of my posts on here, whilst software related don't have anything to do with The Toy.  { Which ny the way is a top notch piece of trading software & free to boot! [:p] }

BTW, just in case you missed the irony there, arguing the toss about spamming on these threads actually is counter productive to your intentions, as if this is a spam thread you will just drag it out for longer than it would have been.

The irony is that Ghetto Joe and know all have unwittingly given me more publicity this year than anybody else, as arguing the toss with those 2 is a far more effective promotional tool than setting up a new Betfair account and asking what the best trading software is. [;)]

Hi people,

So here's an update. I have been receiving a lot of emails from betfair users asking me to start a free 'invitation-only' community. This would guarantee exclusivity and focus on quality content. 

Most of the value I can provide other betfair users is based on chart analysis and betfair trading. I wouldn't consider myself an expert in other betfair strategies/systems.  I know what I am talking about, and are able to achieve a decent ROI, but I am not an expert in every betfair system.  There are other people within the betfair community that are able to provide a lot of better intell regarding other systems.

I was considering creating a portal, with a blog and maybe a forum. The portal would have standard articles from betfair experts (residents and guests). Mostly articles focusing on different generic systems/strategies, rather than focusing on specific markets. The blog would mainly be a trading diary from experts with charts, screenshots, results, etc.

I have seen a lot of these betfair portals/blogs come and go over the last few years. So it's a risky investment. But if done properly it might the only decent independent betfair portal outside of betfair.com and non-software related.  Or is there something out there already I am not aware of?

- Would something like that be of interest to betfair users?
- Would you be interested in contributing as an expert in your field?

Let me know.

Luso

you'll get no sane person giving away their edge

Lol. you certainly don't need me to help promote your software, Geek. And certainly not whilst your forum members stick up such useful info as


luso Joined: 02 Jan 10

People listen up. GeeksToy + QuanSports + NinjaTrader + Experience = £

I only wish luso had been around alot longer than Jan this year as I could have been a millionaire by now

I thought you already were a millionaire, everyone else on here is.  Good job the other 5000 of my forum members aren't so public spirited, or you'd be having kittens.    Still I'm sure everyone will make a million off the back of this thread.  { Well perhaps Betfair will. }

Anyway, methinks this is a good time to bow out of this thread before the conspiriacy thoerists think you are actually me arguing the toss with myself.  [:o]

Try not to drop anything else into the thread that will make me bite.

How about a little thank you in parting ?

OK!?!?!? No wonder betfair software/blogs/communities/etc don't prosper!

How rude of me.  Thank you in parting.

Good Luck Luso.

- Would something like that be of interest to betfair users?

No


- Would you be interested in contributing as an expert in your field?


No

Let me know.

Done, as requested.

Blogs are for losers eh Lori ?

Love your blog! [;)]

http://mybetfairblog.blogspot.com/