How to lose money betting on football

writing your autobiography ken?

Maybe. Treat me gently.

Looks good but always wary of backing U2.5, prefer to trade. Good luck though mate, hope it comes in for ya

I shan't lose any sleep if it doesn't.

I think Luton/Wrexham a nailed on draw Ken

gawdalmighty, how would have done trading on
two successful 'unders' matches in which the
all the goals came in the first half ?

Both draws unsuccessful but unfortunately
both 'unders' bets prevail for anlikely
overall profit of 2.3 points, for that I
apologise. Back tomorrow.

best way to lose money on football in betting on Liverpool to win....

Do 'points' make prizes ?

i think blackpool brum could well be a draw though. Blackpool also go a goal down at home frequently so brum to score 1st also a decent bet. c s 1-1

Well done ken. I must confess I expected more goals in both matches in the 2nd half.  Your predictions suggests 0-0 and 1-1 in both games.  Was that a "gut feel" or based on prices and stats?

Isn't this style of betting outside of your norm, though (recently you said that you normally bet in-play).

.
Friday May 3rd
--------------
Blackpool v Birmingham(draw at 3.4) 3 pts
Under 2.5 goals(at 2.0) 5 pts

Correction!!

Friday May 4th
--------------
Blackpool v Birmingham (draw at 3.55) 3 pts
Under 2.5 goals(at 2.02) 5 pts
-------------------------------------------------

Mr Angry, thanks for the post. Truth is, I'm
just having a bit of fun and definitely haven't
had a bet at all, just suggestions based on stats.
I am mainly betting ''in running'' based on stats
as it doesn't take up too much of my time,
concenrating on the second half and have been quite
successful backing and laying. Hope you didn't come
unstuck with the lack of goals last night at Luton
or Cardiff.

Draw bet unsuccessful but fortunately
'unders' bets a winner for a profit
of 2.1 points,net. Running profit now
4.4 points. Maybe more tomorrow.

well done ken 4.4 points profit is good going

Going well.

Saturday May 5th
--------------
Chelsea v Liverpool (draw at 3.35) 3 pts
Under 2.5 goals(at 1.75) 5 pts

No good yesterday, lost 8 points, balance
now[b] Minus[/b] 3.6 points.
Back tomorrow.

Wed May 9th.

B'ham v B'pool (90 min draw at 4.3) 2.5 pts
B'pool to qualify (at 1.80) 5.5 pts

12.75 points profit with both bets successful
puts the series in the black.
Balance now +9.15 points.

Nice work, so far

These freds are boring when they win.

I have never seen West Ham referred to as Wet Ham.  I am surprised that this description has not been adopted more widely wot with the kings of porn owning it an all innit.

Shirley, I hear next season they're changing their name to Wet Split Beaver United after Cradiff's red shirt rebranding idea gave them food for thought.

Word is that Wet Ham are signing Brazilians from the Cleveland Steamers and Red Wings.

Shirley,A freudian slip (Wet Ham) my apologies to Hammers fans.

.
Friday May 11th
--------------
Stevenage v Sheff Utd (draw at 3.5) 3 pts
Under 2.5 goals(at 1.93) 5 pts

10.9 points profit with both bets successful
puts the series well in the black.
Balance now +20.05 points.

I must be doing something wrong.

neither bet ever in trouble there

kenilworth
Date Joined:     04 Nov 05
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11 May 12 23:39 Joined: 04 Nov 05 | Topic/replies: 8,792 | Blogger: kenilworth's blog
10.9 points profit with both bets successful
puts the series well in the black.
Balance now +20.05 points.

I must be doing something wrong.

Yes Ken you did. You started a thread called how to lose money. Well done on your progress so far though.

My progress ? I've failed so far, I should be losing.

If you had started a thread called how to win money betting on football you be losing. Ain't life a sh@t.

MK Dons v Huddersfield

The draw; 3 pts at 3.5
Under2.5 goals: 5 pts at 1.83

Profit of 1.15 on the two bets, back later perhaps.

Not much interest it seems but I'll press on...

Crewe v Southend

The draw: 3 pts at 3.45
Under 2.5 goals: 5 pts at 1.87

8 pts staked

At least your topic heading is accurate - betting on goal markets is an excellent way of losing money.

high-lander, 5 from 6 so far on 'unders' so you must
be referring to those who back 'overs'. Who can they
possibly be ?

ken I'm talking generally, you will certainly lose in the long term if you bet on goal markets.

ken I'm talking generally, you will certainly lose in the long term if you bet on goal markets.

It's possible to make money on ANYTHING if the price is right.  Are you saying that Ken has been taking bad prices?  What prices do you think these games should have been?

excellent so far ken,if it was going bad,there would be hundreds of posts on this.

The play offs 2nd legs generally have more goals I think.

Sunday May 13th

Cheltenham v Torquay

The draw: 3 pts at 3.45
Under 2.5 goals: 5 pts at 1.77

8 pts staked

Small profit on each of the last 3 matches totalling
3.35 points, so added to previous reported balance of
20.05, account now +23.40 points.Playoff 1st legs over, so onto the second legs which present a different approach
Back tomorrow.

Small profit on each of the last 3 matches totalling
3.35 points, so added to previous reported balance of
20.05, account now +23.40 points.Playoff 1st legs over, so onto the second legs which present a different approach
Back tomorrow.

Sorry about that, I was so excited!!

Wow, superb stuff.  Well done Ken.

Monday May 14th
---------------

Sheffield Un v Stevenage

The draw: 2.5 pts at 4.0
Stevenage: 2 pts at 5.2

4.5 pts staked.

interesting choice ken i think stevenage will be happy to go 0-0 again but i think the blades will beat them

G Hall, I agree with you but the prices are too
big, and that is what I go by. GL.

high_lander • May 12, 2012 6:14 PM BST
ken I'm talking generally, you will certainly lose in the long term if you bet on goal markets.

Nothing is certain in gambling.  You can achieve x strike-rate in any given market over any given time.  You will lose money if you place a losing bet, that is all.

Mr.Angry • May 12, 2012 6:16 PM BST
It's possible to make money on ANYTHING if the price is right.  Are you saying that Ken has been taking bad prices?  What prices do you think these games should have been?

It's also possible to make money on ANYTHING regardless of price.

kenil Well done, you put your money where your mouth is.  My question for you is - how do you accurately judge the chance of 3 goals in a match before the event has started?

May 12, 2012 -- 4:27PM, high_lander wrote:

At least your topic heading is accurate - betting on goal markets is an excellent way of losing money.

I tend to disagree, its the only market i play and i am on a 10-4 win streak at the moment @ evens and above ;)

Loss of 4.5 pts on the night,
balance now +18.90 pnts
--------------------------------

loadedgimp, IMO its'only possible to win without
regard to prices in the short run, definitely not in long.

Re overs/unders.. a few ingredients, the most
important being the price.

"At least your topic heading is accurate - betting on goal markets is an excellent way of losing money."

And what is the excellent way of making money?

Presumably doing the opposite which would
be NOT betting on such market!!

Tuesday May 15th
-----------------

Hudderfield v MK Dons
---------------------
Huddersfield DNB (at 1.61) 6pts

1-0 Huddersfield.

Ken do you trade or let them run,Jordan Rhodes just scored,so excellent trading opportunity.

solid betting ken well played

G Hall, I never trade but occasionally ''green up'' or ''red up''.
Is that the same in your book ?

Getting back to reality, loss of 6 pts,
balance now +12.90

yes Ken,tonight the last kick of the game caught you out,but there was plenty of time to green,so I am sure you did,but for the purpose of this challenge I can see how you wouldn't,if that makes sense.

What are your early thoughts on the CL Final? All logic points to Munchen but for some bizarre reason,I think Chelsea could do it,but I don't know how.   

I do see goals in it

I didn't green unfortunately so there you are. The thing that irritates me is getting
done by a goal that didn't matter at the end, still those two late goals by ManC on
Sunday came for me so it's swings and roundabouts.
Chelsea ? I think there is very little between them except one thing, ground advantage
to Bayern but that affects the betting so IMO the Chelsea price is too big. GL.

I think ramirez is a huge loss for chelsea as there is no runner without him.

Tough game tonight,Southend don't impress me at all,but I think they will bully crewe tonight,home win for me.

Wednesday May 16th

Southend v Crewe

Crewe to qualify (at 1.77) 6 pts

do you fancy goals in this ken,or are crewe alex able to  play for 0-0

where are they 1.77 to qualify ?
certainly not here...

OK they`ve now drifted to 1.77 on here.. although after comm. it aint 1.77 tho is it?

Very perceptive of you RAPS, but I never said it was.
Does that satisfy you ?
-----------------------------------------------------------
G Hall, I agree with you, but the 2nd legs of these playoffs
historically produce more goals than the first legs, so at
around 2.0+ for 'unders' I would say the value is marginal.

Profit of 4.62 pts on the match, balance now

+15.52 pts

Correction !! Balance +17.62 pts

Thursday May 17
---------------

Torquay v Cheltenham

Torquay: (at 2.22) 6pts

The draw (at 3.7) 1.5 pts

Loss of 7.5 pts, balance now
+11.17

Trial over.
Summary



Bets.......... 24
Won............13
Lost.......... 11
Total staked.. 96
Total returns 107.17
Profit........ 11.17
Commission..... 2.09
Net profit..... 9.08
ROI............ 9.09%

A grand a point, and an easy 9k in a few weeks
Well played

.

Ken why don't you keep it going,a very successful thread.

Impressive work but can't help but feel you should've greened out on some of those bets.

Sheff Utd v Stevenage draw
Hudds DNB
Torquay v Cheltenham draw

must all have gone sub 1.5, and you'd have more than doubled your profit.

But as a money making exercise the thread is still a success which is all that counts i guess.

G, There is next to no interest, besides there is only
about 6 matches to the end of the season, and with the two
legged semis over, it seems a reasonable time to end it.
GL.

Whatever Ken,but with CL Final and euros next month,then champions league qualifiers in July,it is something that could run into the new season.

I for one found it a good thread,and as Biscuit said,there were some good greening positions as well.

G, thanks for that, you are one of the forum good guys. GL.

I'm not one who 'greens up'  and on balance I think it pays me to be
that way, on top of that with respect, hindsight is a wonderful thing.

Looking back, one or two situations that would have costly
'greening up'. 'Swings and roundabouts' without the benefit
of hindsight.

people who don't make lay bets lose...lay b'pool and chelsea

therefore gettng the odds lengthened so I can trade it

Fair enough Ken, i only mentioned it because you'd earlier said this


kenilworth 15 May 12 20:10 
G Hall, I never trade but occasionally ''green up'' or ''red up''.


But as i say your thread is in profit, so it's a success

biscuit, quite correct, that is how I generally work during a match,
but I scould hardly do that AND post such moves on this thread. I
find those playoff matches real 'seat of the pants' stuff, especially
the scond halves. As you say, a profit is a profit, but quite
meaningless over 24 bets IMO.

I think you are being too modest here Ken,as your approach appears to be well researched.

Keep it going through the Euro's, Ken. I enjoy following these types of thread -- win, lose or draw.

I'm with the "keep it going Ken" brigade. I like your thread. How about it Kenilworth?

Championship playoff final
--------------------------
West Ham 21/20
Blackpool 31/10
Draw 5/2
Unders 23/20
Overs 17/20

Champions League Final
----------------------
Bayern 9/10
Chelsea 37/10
Draw 14/5
Unders 9/10
Overs 11/10

No Selection