T20 Big Bash Analysis & Staking

#1 The Favourite : Melbourne Renegades

One of the new Melbourne teams, taking a handful of players from the successful Victorian state side and adding some useful interstate and international imports these guys have great potential to succeed.  They are the deserved competition favourites.

Key Players :-

Brad Hodge – One of the most experienced domestic players going around, Hodge has a powerful hitting game and a long track record of getting Victorian One-Day and T20 teams off to blinding starts at the top of the order.  Currently has a hamstring injury, but should only miss 1 or 2 games.

Aaron Finch – Another strong opener for Victorian sides in One-Day and T20 formats.  Sometimes flies under the radar, but his powerful hitting sees him with a T20 average of 37 at a strike rate of 131.  His combination with Brad Hodge is historically the most successful domestic T20 opening partnership.

Nathan Reardon – Poached from Queensland, he is also under the radar but is another powerful hitter who has produced more than a few useful cameos.  Form can be intermittent, but when he fires he can clear the fence with ease.

Andrew McDonald – Former Australian international player gets his chance at captaincy with the Renegades.  A handy medium pace all-rounder and reasonable stroke maker, it is his game experience and dedication as a new captain (out from under Cameron Whites shadow) which will be of great value.

Shahid Afridi – International Pakistani player and, in my opinion, the best short format cricketer in the world presently.  He can blast boundaries and pick up wickets with his legbreaks, he's been injecting energy and enthusiasm into the Pakistani team for years and has the ability to turn matches.  His recent form for Pakistan has been outstanding.

Abdul Razzaq – Another International Pakistani all-rounder with a powerful hitting game and a T20 average of 28 at a strike rate of 142.  His fast-medium bowling is also a feature and his combination with Afridi gives the Renegades a strong international synergy.

Glenn Maxwell – Yet another solid all-rounder who is under the radar.  Maxwell has been having a solid season for the Victorians and has even opened the bowling for their Ryobi side recently.  Pretty handy with the bat too scoring a handy 50 off 37 balls against the touted Queensland attack to rescue the Victorians just over a week ago.  He will miss the first game due to playing in the CA Chairmans XI against India, but is definitely in form and on the rise.

Shaun Tait – Poached from South Australia, the “Wild Thing” has become a professional T20 player and is renowned for his slinging thunderbolts.  On his day one of the most intimidating T20 bowlers, yet at his worst he sometimes suffers from lacking confidence and/or when under pressure.  However, in a new team surrounded by quality, experience and enthusiasm, he is bound to fire.

Dirk Nannes – Aged 35, the world is quick to forget that this guy is the leading wicket taker in the Big Bash and has become another T20 specialist who plays around the world.  His experience and cunning will be a feature of the Renegades bowling attack.

Ryan Carters – The wicket keeper and only negative I can see in this team.  I've watched him bat a couple of times this season and he has plenty of dot balls in him.  Hopefully he bats at #9 because he has the potential to grind an innings to a halt.  His keeping seems ok though.

Summary :-

The number and quality of the all-rounders in this team means that they can bat deep and not need to rely on too many specialist bowlers.  Afridi and Maxwell have the spin department covered, while Tait and Nannes can spearhead a solid and experienced pace attack.  The batsmen above are ALL power hitters and can clear the fence.  The only weakness, in my opinion, is the wicket keeper

Staking Advice :-

Back Melbourne Renegades for 5 units at 6.50

#2 The Dark Horse : Hobart Hurricanes

One of the highly under-rated teams of the competition which is primarily comprised of the Tasmanian Ryobi Cup players, augmented by a couple of handy international and interstate players these guys are the value prospect of what may be a volatile and unpredictable competition.

Key Players :-

Phil Jacques – Poached from NSW, this opener has had some success playing for Australia and only recently returning from injury.  His form this season so far has been sub-par but he is a sublime stroke-maker and if he returns to his best will be a force to reckon with.

Ricky Ponting – Ex-Australian captain and while in the past he has not been a fan of T20, he is taking part in the competition.  There is every chance that he will soon be dropped from the Test team and he may end up taking his frustration out in the latter part of the Big Bash competition.  Not to be under-estimated at state level.

Owais Shah – Under-rated English international with a powerful hitting game and some good recent form playing for the South African Cape Cobras, averaging 77 over his last 4 One-Day innings during November/December.  Another experienced T20 player not to be under-estimated.

Tim Paine – Unfortunately appears to be ruled out of the Big Bash due to ongoing issues with his finger injury.  He will be replaced by Tasmanian Tom Triffit who has some recent batting form.

Rana Naveed –  Solid Pakistani all-rounder who has experience playing in the Big Bash with success in Australian conditions.  Averages 19 with the ball and 21 with the bat at a strike rate of 134.  Another very handy, but under-rated international cricketer.

Ben Hilfenhaus – Former Australian International swing bowler, has plenty of experience in the shorter formats of cricket and has been bowling well for Tasmania recently, earning a call up to the Prime Ministers IX in November.  Generally a good opening and death bowler who is economical and can take wickets.

Xavier Doherty – Current Australian ODI spin bowler who has been made captain in the absence of Tim Paine.  Good recent form for Australia and probably the form spinner of the Australian domestic season in both Sheffield Shield and Ryobi Cup.  Expect him to improve on his T20 averages.

Jason Krejza – The forgotten Australian spinner who was dropped after collecting an 8 wicket haul in India.  His T20 record is actually better than Doherty and he is a good wicket taking option in this format.  With Doherty these two potentially form the best spin partnership in the competition.

Ben Laughlin – New to Tasmania (from Queensland), he has only played 2 Ryobi games this season, but was ultra-impressive in his last game collecting a match winning 6/53 against NSW on December 4.  Not to be under-estimated.

Michael Hogan – Poached from Western Australia for this competition, Hogan has been the spearhead of the Western Australian pace attack in Sheffield Shield.  Not sure how he will go in T20, but he should be dangerous opening the bowling if selected.

Summary :-

It's easy to see why the market has under-valued this teams prospects, as there are some question marks over the batting.  However, despite the loss of Tasmania’s form batsman Ed Cowan to the 6ers, there is enough class in the batting to get runs if individuals form improves.  The real strength of this team is the bowling, particularly the spin twins Doherty & Krejza.  On spin friendly tracks this team will be hard to beat and with a solid short-form pace attack they will be able to defend small totals.  The teams core is largely the Tasmanian state team, so cohesion within the team will be good and the Tasmanians are currently equal top of the Ryobi Cup competition so are performing well and are much better than their current price.  Under-estimate them at your own risk.

Staking Advice :-

Back Hobart Hurricanes for 3 units at 11.00

#3 The Faders : Brisbane Heat

On paper this team looks like one the of strongest and the Queensland state team has opened the Australian Domestic season in fine form, however with player injury, unavailability and a declining form line for Queensland this team looks like one of the poorer value prospects of the Big Bash competition.

Key Players :-

Daniel Vettori – New Zealand International and potentially one of the best spinners currently in international cricket.  Unfortunately he has a hamstring injury and will likely miss the first couple of games.  I have also read that he's only signed for 6 games, so expect he will be leaving the tournament early to play for New Zealand against Zimbabwe in late January – thus I think the Brisbane Heat is unlikely to get good value from this big name signing.

Brendon McCullum – New Zealand International and “master blaster” this guy has the potential to destroy bowling attacks.  However, he can be a bit of a grub and has no love for Australia so I question whether his heart is really in this.  I also expect that he will be heading home to play against Zimbabwe in January, so also won't be around for the “business end” of the competition.

Matthew Hayden – Former Aussie great and opening batsmen.  No doubt in his prime he could destroy any bowling attack, but he retired from international cricket years ago and hasn't really played for over a year.  Last appearance in the IPL for the Super Kings yielded an average of  just 5.8 runs over his last 7 innings.  Expect him to be rusty and he may not be able to return to former glories.  His greatest value to Brisbane Heat appears to be his marketing potential and as a spokesperson.

James Hopes – Queensland captain and former Australian International.  Hopes is a good captain and all-rounder, with good form with his medium pace bowling, but his batting has been well below par this season.  Still, he is one of the likely better performers and he likes to lead by example.

Dan Christian – Poached from South Australia, this all-rounder is on the rise.  He is a poweful hitter and his fast-medium bowling is a handful.  He's in great form and is verging on a call-up to the Australian test team. Indeed this is a risk that if Australia struggles against India in the tests, or face further injuries he may well get a call up and be another quality player lost to the Brisbane Heat at the business end of the competition.

Nathan Hauritz – Poached from NSW, this former Australian spinner is returning to domestic cricket after some time in the wilderness.  I'm not convinced that his head is in the right place and his recent form is a bit indifferent.  I think he is another who is past his best.

Alister McDermott – Only recently added to the roster, this up and coming bowler has the pedigree and the form to impress.  One of the exciting prospects for the future I expect he will be a handful in the Big Bash and what he lacks in experience he makes up for in talent.  Sadly he is one of the few bright spots for this team.

Ryan Harris – Quality Australian International bowler who (when fit) is considered the leader of the Aussie bowling attack.  Unfortunately he has been struggling with injury for some time and is unlikely to be fit for the 1st game and when he is fit he is likely to be selected for the Test team.  Either way he is likely to be unavailable throughout the competition and is taking up space on the roster.

Ben Cutting – Up and coming fast bowler who has been a feature of the early season success of the Queensland state team.  Has bordered on Australian Test team selection, however has recently succumbed to injury and has been reportedly dropped from the roster.  His injury has coincided with the recent Queensland state teams decline.

Summary :-

There are a number of other “reasonable” state players in this team, such as Ryan Broad, Peter Forest, Chris Lynn and Steve Paulsen, however none of them are in consistently great form and so (like the Queensland state team) the batting is suspect.  With Cutting, Harris and Vettori injured, the bowling stocks are also weak.  Overall, I think this team has put too much faith in the NZ players and Haydos, whom are all significant risks of letting the team down.  They will definitely win some games, probably in the mid-season when they are strongest, but I expect them to fade toward the end of the competition.

Staking Advice :-

Lay Brisbane Heat for 3 units at 7.00

#4 The Over-Rated : Sydney Thunder

Once again, on paper, this team looks like a powerhouse with plenty of star power to distract you from the lack of depth and experience that it will inevitably rely upon when the going gets tough.  It is a very unbalanced team which looks like it has been thrown together to make up the desired 2nd Sydney franchise.

Key Players :-

Chris Gayle – The true “rock star” of international cricket, has become potentially the most recognisable full-time T20 professional.  With his powerful hitting Gayle can almost single-handedly win games and he will no doubt win a couple for this team to justify his pay check.  However, he is not a great team player, can show poor discipline and often throws his wicket away when the team needs his most and this team will struggle when he does.

David Warner – Australian International who, in my book, is one of the next great stars of the new cricket generation.  Once considered a T20 specialist who can devastate bowling attacks, he has continued to improve his game and has now been selected to play for the Australian Test team – scoring a test century in only his 2nd game.  Sadly for Thunder fans, he is likely to be unavailable due to Test selection and despite organisers who are using Warner in Big Bash promotional build-up, he is unlikely to be taking part in the competition beyond the first 2 games.  There is also a back injury concern which may rule him out of the 1st game.

Phil Hughes – Out of form Australian Test opener, I was looking forward to him being dropped from the test team and rediscovering his attacking flair in the Big Bash, but he has withdrawn from the competition to attend “Batting Camp”.

Usman Khawaja – Another fringe Australian International who has great future potential as a classy stroke-maker.  Currently in the Aussie Test team, which means he is unlikely to be available to play for the Thunder beyond the first 2 games unless he is dropped from the Test side.  Also has minimal T20 experience of 7 games, averaging only 19.

Daniel Smith – Old school NSW power hitter who was thrown a lifeline early in the domestic season after being dumped.  Not sure how much he will get to play and he can be a bit “hit and miss”, but if he fires he can do some damage.

Ben Dunk – Poached from Queensland (who rely heavily on him) he is also a power hitter and decent wicket keeper.  Recent form has been sporadic, but he can do damage when he fires.  It will be interesting to see if he opens the innings with Gayle once Warner becomes unavailable and whether that will help take pressure off him, allowing him to perform to his potential.

Doug Bollinger – Current Australian ODI player, Doug has good pace and experience in the shorter formats for both opening and death bowling.  Unfortunately he is currently nursing a hamstring injury and is likely to miss the first couple of games.  If he can get fit, and stay fit, he will be the likely leader of Thunders bowling attack.

Fidel Edwards – West Indian International test cricketer who leads their pace attack and can be intimidating.  Has lesser experience in the shorter formats of cricket and so a question mark over his suitability for the Big Bash.  At times he has been very expensive, particularly in recent tests in India where Sehwag and Gambhir took him to task.  Not selected in recent ODIs for West Indies which suggests his short format form is not as good as it should be.

Summary :-

The rest of the Thunder team is made up of a combination of state players drawn from NSW and interstate.  Many with questionable form and credentials.  A significant number of younger players without much experience which suggests that NSW is trying to “blood” new players with this franchise.  Overall I see an unbalanced team of rock stars and newbies, thrown together with a captain (Warner) who is unlikely to be available and no clear leadership credentials beyond that.  I'd expect they could either start the tournament a bit dysfunctional (watch for run-outs) or with a bang if their star power clicks, but their lack of depth should be exposed mid-competition and they will flounder, maybe even fall apart with a collapse in morale toward the end.

Staking Advice :-

Lay Sydney Thunder for 5 units at 8.00

Final Summary & Advice :-

T20 can be a volatile and unpredictable game.  Many punters consider betting on an individual T20 match to be the equivalent of tossing a coin, however, over the long run quality teams will prevail as match results average themselves out.  The fact that Victoria has won 4 of the previous Big Bash competitions is proof of that.  That is why the advised betting strategy is based on the overall tournament rather than individual games.  There are 4 teams out of 8 who will make the elimination finals and so this strategy is based on the regular competition games leading up to the elimination finals.  Once the regular competition games are over the intention is to “green out” on any of the top 4 teams which show a negative outcome (to remove risk) and spread the profit around from the profitable top 4 teams ahead of the elimination finals.  It is not the intention (nor recommendation) to let any of the above bets “ride” through the finals.

From an in-play perspective from memory of past years you often get decent early value.  Quite often the team opening the batting go short quickly with the flat bouncy wickets before being drawn back by (Aussies can't play) spin. 

Pretty standard practise with T20 but even moreso in the Big Bash.

Awesome buddy, very thorough! Will you be doing the other teams as well?

very well covered

hughes not playing,but has a new sponsor

Decent write up.
If Warner wasn't in the test side i was definitely backing Thunder. However theres one direct clash and theres one Thunder t20 before and after a test, so not sure if he'll be allowed to play the day before a test match.
So i was weighing things up and thought Adelaide Strikers had a pretty solid team, I've backed Dan Harris for top batsman.They've also got Pollard down the order and i also rate Callum Ferguson, so i think they'll be up there. Also gone for Stars and i've backed Cameron White as their top runscorer and one for the tourney.
My bets for top batsman are: Brendon McCullum (Heat), Reardon (Renegade), White (Stars) + Harris (Strikers). I've backed these at other bookmakers as they don't do individual scorers on betfair. I'm also having a stab at all this for the outright on Betfair (if i get matched) plus Chris Gayle if i can get a fair price. (8 is too low, i'd want 10+).

Really good work, Freelance. Thank you.

I agree that the Brisbane line-up looks amazingly flaky for reasons of unreliability, injury, temperament and availability.

Meanwhile, Chris Gayle has been explaining what the Big Bash means to Chris Gayle:

"What do you call it: Bond Beach? Bondi? I will be there.
I don't like swimming or going in the water, but I'll be
there posing. I have been looking after my body so I
have a lot to offer by posing."

"Apart from me? I have to give it to Warner."
Chris Gayle, when asked who he thought was the best
Twenty20 batsman in the world.

"They have let ego get the better of them."
Chris Gayle on why West Indies won't select him

Great work Freelance.Plan to do my own research on saturday before I start but this is a great ready recknor on 4 teams atleast

Very important to see the teams who will lose their test players and who are the replacements and for that reason Melbourne Renegades look the best team as per my initial assessment. Not going to lose any of their key players i.e. Brad Hidge, Afirdi, razzaq, Nannes, Tait, Finch and McDonald

Top work mate. Kudos ! Priceless stuff, couldnt be bought IF you had the money

My outright backs are;

Melbourne Renegadess @ 11/2 with Ladbrokes
Chris Gayle top batsman @ 8/1 with Ladbrokes

Worrying news coming from Twitter about Renegades though

IndianBookie1
ok what ever u say i say same bigbash fix fix . after bigbash u say yes u r right . Bye now 12:51 am in india gud nite
2 hours ago

IndianBookie1
i told u na i got news from local aus bookie & i know that man has fixed ;)
2 hours ago

Return_Of_Dawsy
How do u know
3 hours ago

IndianBookie1
Adelaide Strikers or Melbourne Stars win the bigbash
3 hours ago

IndianBookie1
leave that team they cant win 101% fixed
3 hours ago

Return_Of_Dawsy
Renegades to win?
3 hours ago

IndianBookie1
now i leave that match now .
3 hours ago

IndianBookie1
today i am tweet that bbl my predictions & today i say africa to beat lanka & when africa 70/0 , also say i am laying sa @ 1.11
3 hours ago

IndianBookie1
Melbourne Stars or Adelaide Strikers win the big bash t20 101% fixed news ok take care
3 hours ago

IndianBookie1
hey mate i got one fixed #T20 BIG BASH winner news from australia's local bookie ;) Melbourne Renegades not go in the final TAKE CARE ;)
3 hours ago

IF that is the case why would you post it on twitter

great write up.  keep meaning to look more thoroughly myself but havne't looked through the teams and the players i know less about much yet.

will take it easy on the first game and look into the tournament some more.

Second game looks a cracker on paper where we'll get to see if the dream opening pair can produce

Pollard out for the season

Just Leave this Joker I did not saw any correct tips from him in these my 25 days on twitter That's why I blocked him and you should also cheers.

Dawsy*

Great write up and analysis Return, very useful stuff. 

Freelance, you need to check your facts, you shouldn't come on here going off half cocked, see if you can't do some proper research like Dawsy in future.

Bore off Eradicate.

Who says I have to give a full write up for my tips?

Just thought I'd post some info I've heard on twitter.

Strapped - Have done analysis on the other 4 teams, but I saw their pricing was not as far wrong as these 4 were so I have not taken the time to write them up.  I have a couple of 1-2 unit positions on them, but nothing major.

Couple of minor corrections/notes - I have heard reports that Bollinger has overcome his injury and may play tonite.  Greame Manou appears to have been added to the Renegades for wicket keeping duties in place of Ryan Carters (which in my opinion removes the only weakness I was concerned about).  Dan Smith injured his finger, but is still likely to be available for Thunder tonite.

I have been surprised by how many (and how frequent) changes to squads have been made over the last couple of days.

Book looking good after game 1 anyway and happy with my Heat Lay.  Haydos was rusty and struggled with his strike rate but probably did better than most (including me) expected.  Brisbane Heat batting was indeed suspect, and just not good enough.  Hauritz didn't even get to bowl 4 overs and going for 7.66 runs an over on a slow, turning SCG - big vote of no confidence there (expect him to be dropped when Vettori returns).  Even Lynn as an all-rounder bowled better spin than Hauritz.  McDermott got a wicket, but leaking too many runs was a bit of a dissappointment - he should improve with the experience.

Biggest eye-opener for me was Stuart MacGill.  He was a bit of a slug in the field, but he's still got the bag of tricks at 40.  Loved his wrong-un and the Hayden dismissal in particular.

Melbourne Renegades claim the title for worst performance of the Aussie cricket season so far in their match against Adelaide (taking the title from Team Australias poor performance in Hobart).  They looked disjointed, disinterested and completely unco-ordinated.

It may just be because they are a new team and are still coming together.  Surely they must improve from here.

they will improve freelance.. its just that today's conditions werent ideal for their bowling attack.. they will do wonders in perth ..melbourne hobart ..even in sydney.. just need mc donald to open .. i think they will improve in 2nd game.. and will lose a tight game.. but then they will win 3-4 on d trott

this can always happen with star studded sides.. they take some time to come together.. similar thing happened with deccan chargers in a first edition of ipl..

perth is a sure loser.. this side will lose atleast 4-5 games..
depending on whom they are playing against..

It seems that Brendon McCullum will only play 1 more game for the Heat during the Big Bash regular season due to "committments with Otago"

http://www.couriermail.com.au/sport/cricket/brisbane-heat-sign-south-africas-roelof-van-der-merwe-for-the-t20-big-bash/story-e6frepmo-1226228410453

Did I mention something about McCullum not having his heart in this ?

Very happy with my pre-season lay of Brisbane right now.....

Didn't see this! What a joker! Had him for top heat batsman for the tourney. Better get a 100 in his last game!

T20 Big Bash – Half Time Review

With 3 rounds of the Big Bash played out of 7, we are practically at the half-way point of the regular season competition so this is a good time to review the initial analysis and staking from the pre-season.

What follows is a basic summary of each of the 4 teams initially identified for trading and provide advice on any adjustments of the staking plans.


#1 Melbourne Renegades

Easily the biggest disappointment of the competition so far.  The round 1 capitulation to Adelaide was followed by an improved, yet still sub-standard performance against Perth.  Round 3 was another improvement with a come-from-behind upset win over the Sydney Thunder, so with a 1win - 2 loss record they are still in the competition but are definitely under performing.  Of greatest concern is the fielding, with plenty of misfields and dropped catches (which cost them victory in the 2nd game) and the wayward captaincy of Andrew McDonald who, with his poor bowling changes and fielding positions looks to be out of his league. Admittedly, I didn't consider fielding in my initial analysis and was wrong about McDonalds captaincy credentials as he has failed to really pull the team together and gel them as a unit.  The team has loads of talent, but are mostly playing as individuals.  Body language is typically poor and the energy and enthusiasm of team mates supporting each other in the field (usually associated with strong units) is largely absent.  With Brad Hodge returning from injury and some individuals (Nannes, Afridi) starting to (finally) come into form they have been improving and there is optimism that they will come good as a team.  They are currently firing on only about 2 pistons, but they need to win 3 out of 4 of their remaining games to qualify for the finals so there is not much room for error.  If it comes together in time and they qualify they are likely to return to favouritism and would be very be dangerous in the finals.   However, there is a risk that Afridi has picked up an injury in the Thunder game and he may lose game time which would be a significant setback to their building momentum.

Summary :-

Our current back of 5 units has us over-exposed on a team that is a high risk, high reward prospect.  This position needs to be wound back slightly.

Staking Advice :-

Lay Melbourne Renegades for 2 units at 8.00


#2 Hobart Hurricanes

At the other end of the spectrum, this team is undefeated over the first 3 rounds and the market has changed them from being the least to the most favoured team in the competition.  Perhaps the market has finally realised that bowlers can win matches as Hobart have proved by successfully defending totals of 140, 169 and 171 in their first 3 games.  Some of the batsmen have found some form, particularly Phil Jacques who has played some solid innings which have given the batting order stability if not set the world on fire with his run-rate.  Jacques anchor-like innings have allowed explosive players like Travis Burt and Owais Shah to play with freedom and confidence.  Unfortunately Hobart have lost main strike bowler Hilfenhaus to the test team, which weakens them a little.  Hilfenhaus performed admirably in the Melbourne test and so is unlikely to be back for Hobart any time soon, but if he flops in Sydney he may be pushed out of the team team by a fit Ryan Harris so it's not out of the question for him to be back before the finals.  Xavier Doherty has been in great form and is also captaining the team well while Rana Naved has been a feature of the death overs and picking up wickets consistently even though Krejzas form has been patchy.  In my opinion they should be renamed the “Hobart Stranglers” they way they are choking the life out of opposition run-chases.

Summary :-

Very happy with the current 3 unit position here at great odds.  Hobart should only need to win 1 more game to guarantee a spot in the finals where they should be a price of no more than 4.00.  There is a very good chance they will secure a home final which would bring them into maybe 3.50, so no point getting off this train just yet as it's got some great momentum.

Staking Advice :-

No Change


#3 Brisbane Heat

No huge surprise for this team to be languishing near the bottom of the table with no wins from 3 outings.  The hype surrounding the NZ players was easily the biggest red-herring of the tournament build up as not only was Vettori injured and unavailable, but McCullum is now off playing for Otago and also unavailable.  It's been reported that McCullum will only play 1 more game (when he can fit it in) and Vettori may not play at all.  Vettori didn't even travel with the team to Perth, so it's quite clear these two don't have any great commitment to Brisbane.  The batting depth has indeed been exposed and while the market has practically written off this franchise it is not all bad news for Brisbane.  Matt Hayden has shown glimpses of some good form and has the potential to carry the team, while Peter Forest put in a good innings in Perth.  Dan Christian, on the fringe of the test team, looks likely to have missed out for now and should remain in the Brisbane side which is also a plus.  Also, Ryan Harris has returned from injury to play 2 games and due to the outstanding performance of the Australian test bowlers is likely to miss selection for the Sydney test, so will probably play even more games for Brisbane in this competition.  The team has also picked up South African all-rounder Van Der Merwe, who is unknown by most and may be capable of surprising a few.

Summary :-

Not expecting Brisbane to be able to make the finals as they probably need to win their 4 remaining regular season matches to qualify, but they are capable of winning games and the market has written them off.  A good time to green up and bank some guaranteed profit as they've probably hit rock bottom.

Staking Advice :-

Back Brisbane Heat for 0.5 units at 51.00


#4 Sydney Thunder

The Thunder have started the season well with 2 wins from their first two games, however it should have become obvious now to even blind Freddy that there are some serious problems with this “team”.  Chasing 153 in the first game it was David Warner who blasted his way to 102 at a strike rate of 200.  An outstanding piece of individual brilliance and to say that he carried the team that day is a massive understatement.  Yet Warner is unlikely to play again this season, so where does that leave the Thunder ?  Enter super-star #2 for game #2 - Chris Gayle who blasts 100 at a strike rate of 185 to chase down a total of 155.  Almost equally impressive it was another major carry of a team that did not have it's lack of depth exposed.  Finally, in game #3 they were exposed when, cruising to victory on the back of another Chris Gayle innings, he got out in the 18th over and they capitulated.  I can only imagine what the dressing room of this team must be like, but it is obvious that the other batsmen in the team (some who are quite good at domestic level) are shadowed (and probably feeling demoralised) by the rock stars that they can't live up to.  To add to their problems Doug Bollinger appears to have aggravated his hamstring injury and will miss more game time.  The other bowlers are holding up ok, however, despite their inexperience.  The question is whether this team can hold it together when the pressure really starts to mount and their deficiencies are exposed.  Opposition teams are starting to learn to manage the strike to marginalise Chris Gayle.  They may yet make the finals off another 2 Gayle innings, but they are a massive risk if he gets injured and I question whether Gayle can continue to carry like he has (and is expected to).

Summary :-

I still think that the Thunder will fall in a heap sooner or later.  The lack of depth has become obvious and I am certain that some of the domestic players are starting to become demoralised by being unable to live up to the standards of Gayle and Warner.  They still appear to be around the 6.00 mark in the markets which is still a cracking lay, but I'm already into them for a 5 unit lay and it's probably not a good time for a top-up.

Staking Advice :-

No Change

Gotta say Freelance that this has/is some very impressive write ups and work, you have read this tournement like a book to date, give me a opinion please on the team ive backed the Adelaide Strikers.

Thanks for the compliment bavtcc.  Here are my notes on Adelaide from a couple of days ago (disclaimer - I don't have an update on Dan Harris's injury since then) :-

Last years Big Bash Winners were well favoured pre-tournament, however, losing Dan Christian to Brisbane and Shaun Tait to the Renegades was always going to hurt them.  Keiron Pollard was ruled out of the competition before a ball had been bowled this year, yet there are still some things to like about this team and they demolished an under-cooked Renegades in game #1 at home to kick start the competition.  Game #2 saw Adelaide fall victim to the Gayle Force in Sydney, despite playing solidly, but the wheels have continued to fall off this team with big hitting Dan Harris copping a side strain injury.  Game #3 at home saw the Adelaide batting order surrender meekly to the Hobart Stranglers and reports suggest that invaluable international all-rounder Johan Botha (who has been a centrepiece of the spin-centric Adelaide attack) has only 1 more game to play before returning to South Africa.  Alfonso Thomas has been solid, but not spectacular in the pace bowling department and Kane Richardson has shown promise though the bowling attack overall does look a bit soft and green.  Also, classy longer-form batsmen Klinger and Ferguson have not really fired.  It's not all bad, however, with Tom Cooper returning to the squad with a handy 43 at a stroke rate of 159 in a losing side last start.  Overall, Adelaide are a well captained side, but with injuries to key players, the withdrawal of Botha and only 1 more game scheduled to be played at home it's hard to see how Adelaide can win 3 of their remaining 4 games to qualify for the finals.

Overall they are a chance, but I think they should be around the 9.00 to 9.50 mark and I am currently laying them at 8.00.

Adelaide playing tonite.

Harris is fit and they've won the toss to bat first.

They should be able to strangle a win here against the win-less Brisbane in Bothas last game.....

Condolensces on your Adelaide bet.

Does it make you seeth that Keiron Pollard was ruled out for the Big Bash with injury, but now this week is playing in the Caribbean T20 for Trinidad & Tobargo while Adelaides finals prospects are going down the gurgler ?

Pollard just scored 56 off 15 for T&T against Leeward Islands.  Hitting 5 sixes in one over.

Adelaide have certainly missed him this Summer.

No it dosent make me seeth I would prefer the case in world cricket to be that each player plays for there own team, How good would Trinidad for example be? Oh and how bad would some of these horrible disgusting vile Indian teams be.

I feel what cost Adelaide in the earlier matches was sticking with Mcginn, he was awful and the pressure immedaitely was released when he bowled, but overall not good enough no complaints.

I see your bets are going ok still and wish you luck for the rest of the bash, cheers bav

fair to say Leeward Islands were pretty poor and Pollard has been pretty up and down of late no matter where and who he's played for.

He's a good player to have in your line up but you can't rely on him to make a contribution.

bav, I agree with you.  If all players played for their own teams it would be a good thing.

But if we are moving toward franchise cricket where people can play for who they like, they should atleast commit to seeing out the duration of the competition they signed up for.  Watching guys like Keiron Pollard, Brendon McCullum, Fidel Edwards, Dwayne Bravo and even Johan Botha finish up half-way through a tourney is a disgrace.  They are just taking up space on a teams roster and really doing the team no favours.

Once again it's the promoters and the big dollars which are perverting the competition.

Agreed Freelance.

T20 Big Bash – Wrap Up

With the initial 7 rounds of the Big Bash now concluded, the competition enters it's final phase where the 4 qualifying teams play 3 elimination games to determine the winner.  This is the point in the competition where the strategy dictates that we “green up” the book to lock in profits before the ultimately volatile elimination stage of the competition takes place.  What follows is a short review of the position to date for each of the 4 initially identified teams for trade pre-tournament.

Hobart Hurricanes

Have now qualified for a home semi-final after winning 5 out of 7 of their games.  Over the course of the competition their batting has improved with a number of players coming into form and they have uncovered 2 match winners in Travis Birt and Owais Shah, while their bowling has declined with the loss of Hilfenhaus and the poor form of Krezja.  They are a much stronger team setting a total than chasing one, however, and their recent form has them losing 2 of their last 3 games.

Staking Advice :-

Lay Hobart Hurricanes for 10.5 units at 3.80

Summary of Trades to Date :-

Pre-Tournament : Back Hobart Hurricanes for 3 units at 11.00
Pre-Finals : Lay Hobart Hurricanes for 8.75 units at 3.80

Profit if Hobart Hurricanes Win = 5.5 units
Profit if Hobart Hurricanes Lose = 5.75 units


Melbourne Renegades

The big disappointment of the competition, this team proved that you can have an exceptional team on paper full of great bowlers, batsmen and all-rounders, but if you can't field, have poor captaincy and don't gel properly as a team then you cannot succeed in the Big Bash.  They were very lucky not to finish dead last and it was a good thing that trading losses were reduced with a hedge at the half-way point.

Summary of Trades to Date :-

Pre-Tournament : Back Melbourne Renegades for 5 units at 6.50
Half-Way Point : Lay Melbourne Renegades for 2 units at 8.00

Loss on Melbourne Renegades Elimination = 3 units


Brisbane Heat

Probably a bit unlucky in the end, this team took some time to pull things together and lost their first 4 games, only to win their last 3.  They were not helped by the unavailability of their NZ players and carried some poor batting form over from the earlier domestic season.  However, they recovered some batting form and confidence over the course of the competition and could have given the finals a shake if they didn't have to overcome the poor start.

Summary of Trades to Date :-

Pre-Tournament : Lay Brisbane Heat for 3 units at 7.00
Half-Way Point : Back Brisbane Heat for 0.5 units at 51.00

Profit on Brisbane Heat Elimination = 2.5 units


Sydney Thunder

Easily the most predictable non-performers, this was the most poorly constructed team of the competition.  Once Warner became unavailable and Gayle had established his demi-god status this team went downhill and fast.  The constant media scrutiny on the lack of depth and dependency of the team on Gayle after about round 3 ruined the confidence of the rest of the batsmen, who looked visibly unsettled in interviews.  They collapsed as predicted and lost their last 5 games, with scores of 29 (D/L), 99 and 104 in their last 3 games.

Summary of Trades to Date :-

Pre-Tournament : Lay Sydney Thunder for 5 units at 8.00

Profit on Sydney Thunder Elimination = 5 units


Final Summary & Advice :-

Overall, it's been a great competition so far and any one of the 4 teams that have qualified for the finals could win.  Perth Scorchers and Hobart Hurricanes have home ground advantage which includes a much better preparation than the visiting teams, however Hobart looks to have peaked in the early part of the competition, losing 2 of their last 3, while Perth may have peaked in the middle part of the competition, losing their last game.  Meanwhile the Sydney 6ers and Melbourne Stars have both won their last 3 games and appear to be peaking at the right time in the competition.  Heading into the finals the market is showing a lot of bias toward the home teams, but in T20 anything can happen so the value is possibly with the away teams.  Trade the finals at your own risk, however.

Profit Summary :-

Profit on Hobart Hurricanes Trades = 5.5+ units
Loss on Melbourne Renegades Elimination = 3 units
Profit on Brisbane Heat Elimination = 2.5 units
Profit on Sydney Thunder Elimination = 5 units


TOTAL PROFIT = 9.5 units