World Cup 2014

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29 May 14 14:20
Date Joined: 08 Mar 05
| Topic/replies: 2,578 | Blogger: bardo's blog
I reckon that Romelu Lukaku is a decent shout for this, and currently available at 33/1

Belgium have a relatively easy group with Algeria, South Korea and Russia.

you would expect them to qualify from that and then they will likely face Portugal in the last 16, and if they can get beyond that who knows.

Given that Benteke is injured , expect that most of Belgiums goals will come from Lukaku who is such a strong and powerful athlete and who at 6 foot 3 will get goals with his head as well

He should have  very decent service from Hazard and Januzaj and belgium have such quality right through the team, so he will have lots of chances.

he scored 17 goals in 2012/3 and 15 in this season despite being injured for a spell.

Mourinho is a fool if he doesnt fancy him, and take him back from his loan spell at Everton.Instead he will pay 40 odd million for Diego Costa

Lukaku is in good form as is evident from the fact that he scored a hatrick for Belgium the other night...the lad is quality[:wink:

so for me its Lukaku...what other less obvious players are in with a shout for this..?
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Report Super Hans May 29, 2014 3:37 PM BST
Not the worst pick. But as far as I know he won't have the pens.

Also has the look of a low scoring group.

And I tend to agree with the Belgium are over hyped school of thought. Don't fancy them to get to the semis.

TGS usually need to get to at least the semis to get the extra game.

Gl though.
Report cooperman12 May 31, 2014 6:56 PM BST
Just managed to get 12/1 Messi, had to do it in small bets, but managed to get £340 on in total.
Report Mongrel May 31, 2014 7:00 PM BST
Could anybody out there please explain to me what's the difference between the 'Top Goalscorer' and 'Golden Boot' betting options? I am baffled . . .
Report chewy11 May 31, 2014 7:06 PM BST
Golden boot rules are if equal number of goals scored the tie breaks will be:number of assists (decided by FIFA technical study group)

if stll tied then:total minutes played and the player with the fewer minutes will be 1st and be declared the golden boot winner
Report bardo May 31, 2014 7:20 PM BST
golden boot is for top goal scorer

golden ball is for the player of the tournament
Report cooperman12 May 31, 2014 7:26 PM BST
Bardo "Golden ball ?????" Chewy11 100% correct.
Report Super Hans May 31, 2014 9:27 PM BST
31 May 14 18:56
19 Jun 05
| Topic/replies: 76 | Blogger: cooperman12's blog
Just managed to get 12/1 Messi, had to do it in small bets, but managed to get £340 on in total.

Where's the 12/1?
Report cooperman12 May 31, 2014 11:22 PM BST
Special enhanced price supplied to independent bookies who have the same ante post supplier, £100 max, still suffered a knock back in one shop despite them displaying it on their screen, told by the jobsworth manager it was 11/2 despite what the screen says.
Report Super Hans May 31, 2014 11:26 PM BST
Ta CM.
Report therhino June 1, 2014 9:36 AM BST
Are those punting on here playing the Golden Boot or Top Goal scorer market? I'm going Golden Boot, sick of these dead heats at major tournies. 6 way tie at Euros did my head in.
Report LB1982 June 1, 2014 9:15 PM BST
Far less likely to be a dead heat in the world cup as the extra game helps.Anyway i'm playing both to try and maximise profits.
Report Super Hans June 2, 2014 1:36 PM BST
Messi drifting.

Any negative news or just going out to the price he should be?
Report therhino June 2, 2014 2:23 PM BST

Jun 1, 2014 -- 9:15PM, LB1982 wrote:

Far less likely to be a dead heat in the world cup as the extra game helps.Anyway i'm playing both to try and maximise profits.

It was a 4 way tie in 2010. Dead heat top scorers are the in thing these days. Everybody's doing it, all the cool kids anyway.

Report Whatoddswouldyoulike June 2, 2014 3:20 PM BST
Hans, no bad news on Messi. The reason for the drift was that Bald Fred was offering 10/1 (11.0) win only odds between 12pm and 2pm today, which will apparently be repeated between 5pm and 7pm today. So people were backing him over there and laying him on Betfair.
Report Super Hans June 2, 2014 3:53 PM BST
Cheers wowyl.

That explains it. He'll probably find a way to not pay if it cops.
Report Super Hans June 2, 2014 4:08 PM BST
Forgot to ask.

Is the 10/1 in shops as well as online?
Report toffee87 June 2, 2014 4:16 PM BST
yes in shops or at least it was between 12 - 2
Report GODSEND June 2, 2014 5:27 PM BST
Report bigdeal2 June 2, 2014 6:33 PM BST
sergio aguaro , better odds than messi , anybody give him a chance ? i would of thought its got to come from argentina , they got iran in there group . cricket scores come to mins .
Report toffee87 June 2, 2014 6:52 PM BST
you're assuming he stays fit for 6 or 7 consecutive games something he's probably not done for a while
Report bigdeal2 June 2, 2014 7:07 PM BST
yes true .
Report morpteh mackem June 2, 2014 7:32 PM BST
fred if he starts
Report bardo June 2, 2014 9:38 PM BST
Messi failed to score a single goal at WC 2010 and i think he only got 1 at WC 2006  in Germany.. thats quite telling

he really needs to have a major impact in this tournament.
Report Rory B. Bellows June 2, 2014 10:34 PM BST
Higuain a better shout IMO. 25/1 top scorer, and 7/2 top Argy scorer.
Report Charlton2005 June 4, 2014 11:21 PM BST

scored a goal less than messi over the season who had spain backing him. now they'll be backing costa.

30 is more than fair
Report bardo June 6, 2014 2:06 PM BST
will costa be fit though ?
Report Stringer June 6, 2014 2:21 PM BST
Report marychain1 June 6, 2014 3:00 PM BST
Griezmann will start on the left of a front 3 for France, does well in that role coming off the wing, is more of an inside forward than a winger. I've had a lump on at 12/1 with Hills and Lads for top French scorer and a little bit on here for a top 4 in the top goalscorer charts at 42. He's a player I rate highly, he's been excellent in La Liga and if it wasn't for his supposed disciplinary problems when he was younger and being behind Frank Rubberyface in the national setup I'm sure he'd have a load more caps and goals.
Report Shrewd_dude June 6, 2014 3:18 PM BST
My bets so far

Costa 33/1: Backed him a while ago and think he will do well if fit enough.

Sanchez 80/1 and Vargas 100/1: Really fancy Chile to do well and think both will be in amongst the goals as both are in red hot form. Think all of Chile's games will be fairly open with opportunities to score. Their 1st game against Australia is the first really one sided game going by the odds and I can see Chile getting a few against a below average Australian defence so potential to lay off early doors. Australia will be aware of the defensive frailties of Chile so think they will also take their chances to get forward rather than parking the bus which they may do against Spain.

I've also backed them to be top group stage goalscorers at exactly the same price which I think is massive value given the main negative is they may not qualify even if they do score a few goals.

Also can't help thinking Klose is to big a price at 50's even with concerns about how much game time he will get. If he plays he will score. Think he will start on the bench first game so might wait until after that game to back him on the premise that if Germany are qualified going in to last group game with players being rested he could play most of the match against a weak USA team.
Report MoonJago June 6, 2014 8:58 PM BST
Quick question. Im on M Reus top Bundasliga goalscorer if he doesnt end up going after just limping off there, will cash be refunded or have i done my dough?
Report marychain1 June 6, 2014 10:35 PM BST
I'm guessing they could say it was an antepost bet if the squads haven't been announced, but I reckon as Reus was tipped up by someone in the RP they are likely to refund steaks just as a bit of good PR
Report bardo June 6, 2014 11:23 PM BST
Marco Reus badly injured his ankle tonight in Germanys 6-1 win V Armenia.

most likely he is out of the world cup
Report Shrewd_dude June 6, 2014 11:27 PM BST
I would say no chance Moonjago. You wouldn't be expecting a rule 4 on the bet when Ribery was announced as not going so I doubt they will be refunding non runners unless it specifically said so.
Report bigdeal2 June 6, 2014 11:27 PM BST
messi  and they got iran in there group  , cricket scores spring to mind
Report Ted Brogan June 7, 2014 10:50 AM BST

Jun 6, 2014 -- 11:27PM, bigdeal2 wrote:


Report Ted Brogan June 7, 2014 10:54 AM BST
Urgh I just wrote out a long reply which seems to have not been posted correctly. Can;t be @rsed to type it all out again, so in summary:

a) Remember people thought same about Brazil v North Korea? finished 2-1

b) Argentina v Iran kicks off at 13:00 - heat will be a factor.

c) if they beat Bosnia in the opener, no incentive for them to drum up a massive score v Iran

d) If they get 6 points from first two games, Messi likely to be rested against Nigeria

e) Argentina have 3 world class strikers, and some top attacking midfielders, so likely to share their goals around the team

f) Messi @ 8/1 worst value bet of the tournament imo
Report Rory B. Bellows June 7, 2014 12:47 PM BST
Anyone know of anywhere offering a messi total goals market?
Report MoonJago June 7, 2014 8:19 PM BST
PP gave the cash back on Reus Grin
Report Roger De Bris June 7, 2014 8:59 PM BST
can't find a market for Golden Boot...

Neymar at 12/1 for me. Takes the pens. 30 goals in 47 for Brasil.
Report Zazu June 8, 2014 3:47 PM BST
The winner will be German
Report bardo June 8, 2014 4:49 PM BST
Report robbie fowler is god June 9, 2014 12:12 AM BST
i like costa ,wheres the 33s for top group scorer that sounds even better
Report sideshowbob June 9, 2014 12:13 AM BST
could be almost anybody. villa, muller, schurrle and klose are decent high priced contenders. well, muller is only about 30.0 but germany dont have an obvious striker. klose is a good price, but he is older than hell so may not play much. muller was joint top scorer last world cup, and apparently won the golden boot due to most assists of the joint top scorers. villa also older than hell, but nobody else can score for spain right now so they may have to turn to him to get the goals.

argentina could wrack up a load of goals in their group so anybody who can score is a lively contender. neymar has to be a contender if brazil do well.
Report hello :-) June 9, 2014 1:53 PM BST
Main bet is higain

massive price at 20s 22s considering his games to goals ratio including 4 at last world cup which left him only one of the top and argentina only reached quarters

Has world cup scoring form , vastly experienced and plays in a side who will create a lot of chances

Seems to have been around forever but he is only 26 , him for me with savers on neymar and muller
Report bardo June 9, 2014 2:27 PM BST
put a nice wedge on Benzema at 33/1

another player I would definitely have on my book is Brazils Fred

Been watching lots of highlights from Brazil games in the last few years... and Fred scores in most gamesWink

Like Thomas Muller and Klose for Germany Fred just always seems to be in the right place at the right time.
Report sideshowbob June 9, 2014 2:30 PM BST
i cant back players who havent scored goals at international level.

diego costa has 0 international goals

lukaku has only scored 6 in 29 games (apparently his 3 against luxembourg dont count lol) even if you add them on its only 9 in 30 games

messi has 38 in 86, not a bad record but doesnt equate to him being favourite. aguero has 21 in 50 which is similar to messi. higuain has 20 in 36. if he plays he should be favourite of the 3 clearly.

neymar has 31 in 49 which is why he would be my favourite, not messi. fred has 17
in 31 which is ok but its nowhere near neymars record.
Report marychain1 June 9, 2014 9:28 PM BST
Just looking at the bare number doesn't tell the whole story. Neymar's international record is incredible but he is very short, especially as loads of his goals came against total crap teams.

Lukaku's record isn't as good as you might expect but that's because he's been behind Benteke in the pecking order. He is the number 1 striker now Benteke is out.

He's scored 4 goals in his last 2 starts for Belgium and if you go back to qualifying he only actually started one match because they normally went with Benteke and often brought Lukaku on late in the game. In his one start he scored 2 away in Croatia.
Report Shrewd_dude June 9, 2014 9:33 PM BST
Plus about 80% of Neymars goals have been in friendlies or the Olympics. Only scored about a half dozen in competitive all age games. Brazil haven't been playing in qualifiers obviously but it's a totally different ball game scoring in friendlies compared to competitive qualifiers or tournaments.
Report punkha1 June 9, 2014 10:43 PM BST
Seems to have been a move for Aguero today.
Was looking at him but bit surprised he didn't start any of their pre WC friendlies.Is he a certain starter?
Report sideshowbob June 10, 2014 2:06 AM BST
fair enough but youre still counting goals he hasnt scored cos he hasnt been starting games, if were doing that then we may as well just ignore all stats. and being very selective in only highlighting games where he did score. you can do that with a hundred players in the tournament, everybody scores sometimes. a quick search tells me he played the full 90 minutes against wales at home in the world cup qualifier and didnt score.

not sure i buy that friendlies dont count, half the world cup qualifiers are against muppet teams anyway. neymar scored 4 goals in the confed cup, all against decent teams. 4 goals in 5 matches against decent opponents. lukaku has only officially scored 6 international goals in 28 games. and only one of those games wasnt a friendly. btw, how come his 4 (or 7 if you count luxembourg) goals in friendlies are more impressive than neymars 25?
Report marychain1 June 10, 2014 6:31 AM BST
I haven't said friendlies don't count. Just pointed out that a lot of neymar's goals have come against crap teams so his amazing record might not be quite as impressive as it looks.

And whilst 6 in 29 doesn't look amazing for Lukaku a lot of those caps came as late subs. 9 in 16 starts is pretty good.
Report bardo June 10, 2014 1:56 PM BST
current form is what ultimately counts.

strikers go through lean spells, and can then have a great season like Diego Costa this year

Remember Diego forlan couldnt buy a goal for Man.Utd at one stage, a few seasons later after he left Utd, he was the top scorer in La Liga with 32 Goals for Athletico Madrid in 2008-9 and was joint top scorer in WC2010 with 5 goals
Report book June 11, 2014 9:39 AM BST
eden hazard at 99/1 is huge considering belgiums group,also kevin miralles.
Report book June 11, 2014 9:47 AM BST
higuain is argentinas main forward,so 22/1 looks big as well.
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