New Posts For Thread: Dodgy Odds??https://community.betfair.com/world_cup/go/thread/view/107734/25181105/dodgy-oddsThis is probably mt lack of knowledge on betting odds but I would just like to make sure. I think odds are lower thn what they should be for most teams...World cup winner odds: Argentina 9/2 To qualify against germany 1.74I have just been looking at this and I just worked out spains price to win match by match and I make it that of the four senarios without uruguay/ghana it works out at 4/1,7/2,10/3 and 3/1.At the moment they are 3/1 on the outright market.I differedhttps://community.betfair.com/world_cup/go/thread/view/107734/25181105/dodgy-odds?post_id=454457565#454457565I have just been looking at this and I just worked out spains price to win match by match and I make it that of the four senarios without uruguay/ghana it works out at 4/1,7/2,10/3 and 3/1.At the moment they are 3/1 on the outright market.I differedThu, 01 Jul 2010 13:33:10 -0500overpet, i'm not saying that germany should be 15's as every teams odds when using this method was higher to a degree (it uses the hardest possible route for every team which of course is impossible)but they were the one team where the diffhttps://community.betfair.com/world_cup/go/thread/view/107734/25181105/dodgy-odds?post_id=454453377#454453377overpet, i'm not saying that germany should be 15's as every teams odds when using this method was higher to a degree (it uses the hardest possible route for every team which of course is impossible)but they were the one team where the diffThu, 01 Jul 2010 13:06:33 -0500the prices are complled by majopr bookmakers using models, pricing up every possible permutation and simulating the probabilities of each outcome. so they're one steop ahead of you there is suspect. as an overview I'm now of the opinion thahttps://community.betfair.com/world_cup/go/thread/view/107734/25181105/dodgy-odds?post_id=454370733#454370733the prices are complled by majopr bookmakers using models, pricing up every possible permutation and simulating the probabilities of each outcome. so they're one steop ahead of you there is suspect. as an overview I'm now of the opinion thaWed, 30 Jun 2010 20:58:51 -0500@Handles - Good luck to you if you try it, but if you really think the price on Germany is wrong by a factor of almost 2 then you may have made a mistake, or at least an unwise assumption, unless I have misunderstood your reasoning?https://community.betfair.com/world_cup/go/thread/view/107734/25181105/dodgy-odds?post_id=454265333#454265333@Handles - Good luck to you if you try it, but if you really think the price on Germany is wrong by a factor of almost 2 then you may have made a mistake, or at least an unwise assumption, unless I have misunderstood your reasoning?Wed, 30 Jun 2010 06:41:18 -0500huster, i did something similar for all teams and found the german price to be the most off line. For example if you were to back them to qualify agaisnt each team in their probable route, to a £100 stake and re-investing profits each time you shoulhttps://community.betfair.com/world_cup/go/thread/view/107734/25181105/dodgy-odds?post_id=454259309#454259309huster, i did something similar for all teams and found the german price to be the most off line. For example if you were to back them to qualify agaisnt each team in their probable route, to a £100 stake and re-investing profits each time you shoulWed, 30 Jun 2010 04:57:50 -0500Both Argentina and Germany are too low.https://community.betfair.com/world_cup/go/thread/view/107734/25181105/dodgy-odds?post_id=454255905#454255905Both Argentina and Germany are too low.Wed, 30 Jun 2010 03:50:55 -0500The Arg O/R price on Betfair reflects approx 58% chance of winning QF, 54% chance of winning semi and 55% chance of winning final. Naturally if you use the worst case draw scenario for any team they will seem too short.https://community.betfair.com/world_cup/go/thread/view/107734/25181105/dodgy-odds?post_id=454253761#454253761The Arg O/R price on Betfair reflects approx 58% chance of winning QF, 54% chance of winning semi and 55% chance of winning final. Naturally if you use the worst case draw scenario for any team they will seem too short.Wed, 30 Jun 2010 02:52:46 -0500Maybe not so simple e.g. Spain are only 1.2 to qualify for semis, when Paraguay do it argies would be big faves. Similarly brasil are only 1.9 to be in final and argies would be fave against others. Might need to add probabilities for all possible rohttps://community.betfair.com/world_cup/go/thread/view/107734/25181105/dodgy-odds?post_id=454219485#454219485Maybe not so simple e.g. Spain are only 1.2 to qualify for semis, when Paraguay do it argies would be big faves. Similarly brasil are only 1.9 to be in final and argies would be fave against others. Might need to add probabilities for all possible roTue, 29 Jun 2010 18:57:30 -0500But do you not think argies odds are still smaller than they should be?https://community.betfair.com/world_cup/go/thread/view/107734/25181105/dodgy-odds?post_id=454214337#454214337But do you not think argies odds are still smaller than they should be?Tue, 29 Jun 2010 18:09:32 -0500you will be a millionaire laying the 9/2 and betting on them to win the matchesi wish i could make millions as easy as thishttps://community.betfair.com/world_cup/go/thread/view/107734/25181105/dodgy-odds?post_id=454214273#454214273you will be a millionaire laying the 9/2 and betting on them to win the matchesi wish i could make millions as easy as thisTue, 29 Jun 2010 18:09:02 -0500