U.S. Horse Racing
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US Horse Racing Friday
US Horse Racing Friday
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Replies: 269
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2 to place at EVD
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Think you got the place Honky. Well done if you did.
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Phew!! Thought I was a goner there!!
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Thanks Rowan. I see you've mastered the US horses these days.
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EVD
7-2-6-1 Well done Honky. |
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hahaha thanks Honkey! I've certainly sharpened up. Do you remember me from years ago?
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Yeah. We had quite a conversation two or three years ago. You weren't quite on top then, but you said you *knew* you could beat this game, and were determined to do so. Given this and your stunning night a few weeks ago, I'd say you've got there!
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had a fair few corkers tonight!
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You can certainly eat well on a 14.0 shot or two!
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Wow! You remember that conversation and my performance a few weeks ago? I'm impressed! Thanks a lot. Means a lot.
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hahaha yes. I genuinely believe I've got the edge now. That night a few weeks ago was epic. Glad you saw that! Thanks for the recognition.
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It impressed me how seriously you took it. Most punters are just there for a quick thrill or two, but you clearly had a bigger plan for your betting. Keep up the great work!!
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Pen R9
6 is a worthy favourite, but 9 looks overpriced at 11.0+. Just wondering how well it can transfer its Charles Town form to Penn. Seems well worth a go. |
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Actually think there's a bit of value in the 6 at 3.2. Backed it small.
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Thanks a lot Honky. That means a lot. I definitely find it very interesting and it's been a long-term battle for me to beat the market, because I always had a strong sense that it was a beatable and passion for data analysis.
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It's certainly an absorbing pursuit. I love it when I find a little angle in that the US punters appear to have missed!!
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Gosh. Couldn't have picked that winner. I guess he must have learnt a little something from those two 15K races.
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Yes, exactly! It's really satisfying. That's what I love too.
EVD R8 3 at 8.0+ |
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Did 3 get there at EVD? Please tell me it did!
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Rough luck! There was a horse-hair between those three!
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Oh yeah, I was surprised by the Penn result too!
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Oh God. 3 was actually third? Wow. Guess it was the camera angle that tricked me. Oh well. More evidence that I've got the edge!
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The change of jock may have been a key to the Penn winner. Rodriguez got two good results from that horse early in his career, and this was his first time back in the horse's saddle since July 14. Could be co-incidence, but it could be he knows how to get that little more from the horse. Didn't gun him right to the lead either, in contrast to the last two jocks.
All easy with hindsight though!! (I thought your 3 had actually got up at the end and just nailed it there at EVD!!) |
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Actually, that was a different jock called Rodriguez that was on the Penn winner earlier in his career! Maybe KP should have a Rodriguez rule to go along with his Cat rule!!
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Don't think I'll be hanging around for the final few races. Good luck if you're continuing, Rowan.
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lol Honky! There does seem to be a correlation between names and ability in the horse racing world. Could be culturally influenced?
I've got to admit, I've never factored in jockey ability much. Something I perhaps need to give more consideration to. I tend to see a good jockey booking as a sign of positive intent on the trainer's part. |
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Thanks a lot Honky. Great to catch up.
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Yeah, I'm not too bothered about the jockey either. There's enough to consider just assessing the horse! Plus it's rather hard to analyse a jockey - I prefer to boil things down to figures that I can use, and a simple win-rate doesn't really tell me much. The only time I'll really pay attention is when backing first-time starters. As you say, a big jockey-signing signifies trainer intent, and if a big jock is choosing a FTS, I'll take that as a good sign, assuming the other more-crucial factors are in place.
Anyway. Enough blether from me. Night. |
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EVD
3 at 2.6 |
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Very interesting Honky. Glad we're on the same wavelength on that one! That reassures me.
EVD Big bet on 11 at 9.4 now that price has drifted. |