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US Horse Racing Friday

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Replies: 269
By:
HonkyJoe
When: 13 Jun 15 02:22
2 to place at EVD
By:
Rowan86
When: 13 Jun 15 02:26
Think you got the place Honky. Well done if you did.
By:
HonkyJoe
When: 13 Jun 15 02:27
Phew!!   Thought I was a goner there!! Laugh
By:
HonkyJoe
When: 13 Jun 15 02:28
Thanks Rowan. I see you've mastered the US horses these days.
By:
Rowan86
When: 13 Jun 15 02:28
EVD

7-2-6-1

Well done Honky.
By:
Rowan86
When: 13 Jun 15 02:30
hahaha thanks Honkey! I've certainly sharpened up. Do you remember me from years ago?
By:
HonkyJoe
When: 13 Jun 15 02:33
Yeah. We had quite a conversation two or three years ago. You weren't quite on top then, but you said you *knew* you could beat this game, and were determined to do so. Given this and your stunning night a few weeks ago, I'd say you've got there!
By:
kpskips
When: 13 Jun 15 02:34
had a fair few corkers tonight!
By:
HonkyJoe
When: 13 Jun 15 02:35
You can certainly eat well on a 14.0 shot or two!
By:
Rowan86
When: 13 Jun 15 02:36
Wow! You remember that conversation and my performance a few weeks ago? I'm impressed! Thanks a lot. Means a lot.
By:
Rowan86
When: 13 Jun 15 02:37
hahaha yes. I genuinely believe I've got the edge now. That night a few weeks ago was epic. Glad you saw that! Thanks for the recognition.
By:
HonkyJoe
When: 13 Jun 15 02:39
It impressed me how seriously you took it. Most punters are just there for a quick thrill or two, but you clearly had a bigger plan for your betting. Keep up the great work!!
By:
Rowan86
When: 13 Jun 15 02:39
Pen R9

6 is a worthy favourite, but 9 looks overpriced at 11.0+. Just wondering how well it can transfer its Charles Town form to Penn. Seems well worth a go.
By:
Rowan86
When: 13 Jun 15 02:41
Actually think there's a bit of value in the 6 at 3.2. Backed it small.
By:
Rowan86
When: 13 Jun 15 02:42
Thanks a lot Honky. That means a lot. I definitely find it very interesting and it's been a long-term battle for me to beat the market, because I always had a strong sense that it was a beatable and passion for data analysis.
By:
HonkyJoe
When: 13 Jun 15 02:44
It's certainly an absorbing pursuit. I love it when I find a little angle in that the US punters appear to have missed!!
By:
HonkyJoe
When: 13 Jun 15 02:48
Gosh. Couldn't have picked that winner. I guess he must have learnt a little something from those two 15K races.
By:
Rowan86
When: 13 Jun 15 02:50
Yes, exactly! It's really satisfying. That's what I love too.

EVD R8

3 at 8.0+
By:
Rowan86
When: 13 Jun 15 02:54
Did 3 get there at EVD? Please tell me it did!
By:
HonkyJoe
When: 13 Jun 15 02:55
Rough luck!  There was a horse-hair between those three!
By:
Rowan86
When: 13 Jun 15 02:55
Oh yeah, I was surprised by the Penn result too!
By:
Rowan86
When: 13 Jun 15 02:56
Oh God. 3 was actually third? Wow. Guess it was the camera angle that tricked me. Oh well. More evidence that I've got the edge!
By:
HonkyJoe
When: 13 Jun 15 02:57
The change of jock may have been a key to the Penn winner. Rodriguez got two good results from that horse early in his career, and this was his first time back in the horse's saddle since July 14. Could be co-incidence, but it could be he knows how to get that little more from the horse. Didn't gun him right to the lead either, in contrast to the last two jocks.

All easy with hindsight though!!

(I thought your 3 had actually got up at the end and just nailed it there at EVD!!)
By:
HonkyJoe
When: 13 Jun 15 03:03
Actually, that was a different jock called Rodriguez that was on the Penn winner earlier in his career!  Maybe KP should have a Rodriguez rule to go along with his Cat rule!!  Laugh
By:
HonkyJoe
When: 13 Jun 15 03:05
Don't think I'll be hanging around for the final few races.  Good luck if you're continuing, Rowan.
By:
Rowan86
When: 13 Jun 15 03:06
lol Honky! There does seem to be a correlation between names and ability in the horse racing world. Could be culturally influenced?

I've got to admit, I've never factored in jockey ability much. Something I perhaps need to give more consideration to. I tend to see a good jockey booking as a sign of positive intent on the trainer's part.
By:
Rowan86
When: 13 Jun 15 03:07
Thanks a lot Honky. Great to catch up.
By:
HonkyJoe
When: 13 Jun 15 03:15
Yeah, I'm not too bothered about the jockey either. There's enough to consider just assessing the horse!  Plus it's rather hard to analyse a jockey - I prefer to boil things down to figures that I can use, and a simple win-rate doesn't really tell me much.       The only time I'll really pay attention is when backing first-time starters. As you say, a big jockey-signing signifies trainer intent, and if a big jock is choosing a FTS, I'll take that as a good sign, assuming the other more-crucial factors are in place.

Anyway. Enough blether from me. Night.
By:
Rowan86
When: 13 Jun 15 03:15
EVD

3 at 2.6
By:
Rowan86
When: 13 Jun 15 03:17
Very interesting Honky. Glad we're on the same wavelength on that one! That reassures me.

EVD

Big bet on 11 at 9.4 now that price has drifted.
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