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RiskyBusiness
07 Dec 12 17:25
Joined:
Date Joined: 08 Mar 12
| Topic/replies: 2,262 | Blogger: RiskyBusiness's blog
evening all, gl tonight
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Report Keefter December 8, 2012 12:19 AM GMT
with you there NMR. even that has its draw backs as any bias is quickly factored into the prices so you need to spot it very early to capitalise. plus here we are talking about 4 different tracks lol
Report Keefter December 8, 2012 12:21 AM GMT
I'm goign to sell this system on ebay!!
Report Kriskin December 8, 2012 12:21 AM GMT
Boooooooooooomm at Charles
Report generall December 8, 2012 12:21 AM GMT
omg, all fav are going down lol
Report NMR December 8, 2012 12:22 AM GMT
You'd be surprised Keefter. I got a massive BSP in the spring about a #2 drawn at Chester that won, and a decent SP on the dogs this afternoon about a dog in a pattern and #2 lost there
Report Kriskin December 8, 2012 12:22 AM GMT
5 - 2 - 1 at Charles
Report Darlo Bantam December 8, 2012 12:22 AM GMT

Dec 7, 2012 -- 6:21PM, generall wrote:


omg, all fav are going down lol


Except the last at Penn where it doubled in price.

Report Keefter December 8, 2012 12:24 AM GMT
I@ve all but given up on the dogs tbh. The bags stuff is wiffy as hell imo. and the Open racing i'm all too often searching for non-existant value outsiders.
Report Keefter December 8, 2012 12:25 AM GMT
the favs so far this evening are pretty performing oppsite to their market moves. since they starte dto back them they've lost, the ones between 10pm and midnight where they drifted the hell out of them they won. you couldnt make it up.
Report Kriskin December 8, 2012 12:27 AM GMT
8 to win at MNR.  Looks better graded
Report Kriskin December 8, 2012 12:27 AM GMT
should have stated 9 to win at Mountain
Report Kriskin December 8, 2012 12:30 AM GMT
8 beats 9 at Mountain
Report NMR December 8, 2012 12:30 AM GMT
shoulda stuck by your original post Kristin
Report Kriskin December 8, 2012 12:31 AM GMT
I had it backed NMR for a smaller stake than what I had on the 9.  Would have been a decent forecast
Report NMR December 8, 2012 12:32 AM GMT
Keefter the dogs was the first sport I ever punted in when I was 14, when I'm hard up I look at draw biases halfway through each meeting then simply dutch on the outside or inside depending 95% of meetings I don't bet in. Might sound stoopid but its profitable.
Report Kriskin December 8, 2012 12:35 AM GMT
NMR - there was a big bias last nite at Henlow.  Outside traps 6 lengths quicker than the inside traps
Report Keefter December 8, 2012 12:35 AM GMT
I've tried that but more using the RFC market which can be frustrating. I guess your system is price dependant?? not much point if its an outside bias and 4 5 and 6 return as a 1.35 shot i wouldnt think.
Report spiller1 December 8, 2012 12:36 AM GMT
DD #7 (big bet)
Report RiskyBusiness December 8, 2012 12:41 AM GMT
laid 1 at dd, gl
Report spiller1 December 8, 2012 12:42 AM GMT
7 fell out  Sad
Report Kriskin December 8, 2012 12:43 AM GMT
10 - 4- 1 at DELTA
Report RiskyBusiness December 8, 2012 12:44 AM GMT
10 won dd Happy ul spiller
Report theonlywayforward December 8, 2012 12:45 AM GMT
Evening all.Wife gone to bed without me.ha .In the bad books for the moment as got our daughter to do a bit of research for me.I asked her to get the results from the last 500 races @ penn .Log them into excel. It was no surprise to me that it returns a -45% on roi.Its nice to have it in black and white all the same.Mind you it cost me as i am now being accused of turning our child into a gambler.As i explained it is a business like any other to no avail .So getting the picture with no sound now.Ha.women.
Report NMR December 8, 2012 12:46 AM GMT
You talking betfair SP or track?
Report RiskyBusiness December 8, 2012 12:46 AM GMT
laid the 8 at ct, gl
Report spiller1 December 8, 2012 12:47 AM GMT
2 horse later today:

Big Easy
Fathsta

GN all
Report Darlo Bantam December 8, 2012 12:48 AM GMT

Dec 7, 2012 -- 6:46PM, NMR wrote:


You talking betfair SP or track?


I'm guessing track. US SPs seems to have some huge overround to line the bookies pockets.

Report NMR December 8, 2012 12:48 AM GMT
Yeah Kristin did 2 456's there then got out. Only every couple of days these opportunities come up.
Report theonlywayforward December 8, 2012 12:49 AM GMT
Only data available was bf sp enjoy.
Report RiskyBusiness December 8, 2012 12:49 AM GMT
laid 6 at penn, gl
Report NMR December 8, 2012 12:51 AM GMT
I shoulda stopped an hour ago as I've had 4 losses in a row, I never win past 1am in the states so should really just chill rest of the evening Scared
Report RiskyBusiness December 8, 2012 12:51 AM GMT
6 won ct Happy
Report Keefter December 8, 2012 12:52 AM GMT
LOL theonlyway! anyone taking their punting seriously should get detailed records. I'm too lazy tbh maybe i need a computer wizzkid.
Report RiskyBusiness December 8, 2012 12:52 AM GMT
NMR i had a similar situ about an hour ago, wish i'd stopped at 10.30, gl if u carry on
Report alansure1 December 8, 2012 12:53 AM GMT
what do u think guys does the 6 keep the race at c-t ??
Report Keefter December 8, 2012 12:54 AM GMT
could be dodgy RIskyBusiness. stewards and an objection! :O
Report NMR December 8, 2012 12:55 AM GMT
Risky I was nicely up last night and was 0.3 points away from reaching my target, thought about stopping around this time but carried on, ended up -5
Report Keefter December 8, 2012 12:55 AM GMT
waiting for the headon, not that i havea  great record of calling these in the US tbh.
Report Keefter December 8, 2012 12:55 AM GMT
6 loses it. 9 your winner at CT
Report alansure1 December 8, 2012 12:55 AM GMT
im on the 6 just had a look dont look good
Report alansure1 December 8, 2012 12:56 AM GMT
SadSadSadSadSad
Report theonlywayforward December 8, 2012 12:59 AM GMT
Joined: 18 Jan 07 | Topic/replies: 3,345 | Blogger: Keefter's blog
LOL theonlyway! anyone taking their punting seriously should get detailed records. I'm too lazy tbh maybe i need a computer wizzkid.

Would not have the time to do it as work to fkn hard but my kid is preety good on the computer .Different era as they are brought up with that stuff .
and another one bites the dust @ penn.
Report NMR December 8, 2012 1:00 AM GMT
Another shorties @ Turfway
Report NMR December 8, 2012 1:00 AM GMT
Was tooo late!!!
Report theonlywayforward December 8, 2012 1:00 AM GMT
Sorry slop.Ha.
Report book December 8, 2012 1:02 AM GMT
that reversal was a joke at ct,6 easily the best horse
Report NMR December 8, 2012 1:04 AM GMT
it would have been more profitable wayforward to have used BSP. You can get them on the timeform website under results. I love stats so I might spend time mining betfair prices :-p
Report RiskyBusiness December 8, 2012 1:04 AM GMT
laid the 3 at dd, gl
Report Keefter December 8, 2012 1:04 AM GMT
that was a horrible ride on the 7 at TP tbh. jockey utterly panic striken by not getting the lead, they could see the pace was far too fast and they couldnt keep up and instead of taking a sit and then asking the horse to close they rode the thing to death.
Report NMR December 8, 2012 1:05 AM GMT
Keefter sounds like me playing the PS3 Champion Jockey video game.
Report Keefter December 8, 2012 1:05 AM GMT
hang the dj hang the dj hang the dj, hang the dj!
Report milesthemouse December 8, 2012 1:06 AM GMT
what won turfway, i cant call it
Report Keefter December 8, 2012 1:06 AM GMT
I have the Xbox version! its simplistic but you know what happens when you go too early in that game. i've been 20+ lengths clear and finished stone last many times haha
Report Keefter December 8, 2012 1:07 AM GMT
4 won at TP
Report henkeboots December 8, 2012 1:08 AM GMT
agree book was staying on the better
Report henkeboots December 8, 2012 1:08 AM GMT
4 6 at turf
Report Keefter December 8, 2012 1:09 AM GMT
7 for buttons at DD
Report Keefter December 8, 2012 1:12 AM GMT
no such thing as an easy lead at DD!!! trappy horrible track.
Report Kriskin December 8, 2012 1:12 AM GMT
Last BIG bet for me tonite.  3 is different gravy at Mountain especially with the Sloppy track
Report Darlo Bantam December 8, 2012 1:13 AM GMT
Layers out to get this 3.
Report Keefter December 8, 2012 1:13 AM GMT
they want this one beat at Mnr. I'm not falling into that trap again. a sit and watch for me.
Report Kriskin December 8, 2012 1:14 AM GMT
Darlo - these are the Friday nite layers.
Report Kriskin December 8, 2012 1:15 AM GMT
Lads this what happens every weekend on here. I've gone in again on Seamstress
Report Keefter December 8, 2012 1:16 AM GMT
its been like this all night and they've more often than not been way off the mark, I wouldnt put anyone off the 3 if they genuinely fancy it. I cant lay it though based purely on the market after what I've witnessed tonight.
Report Darlo Bantam December 8, 2012 1:16 AM GMT
Sometimes the market just acts like lemmings. Sometimes they get it right, sometimes they don't. That one at Penn an hour ago was a spectacular failure. This could be the same looking at the price difference.
Report Darlo Bantam December 8, 2012 1:18 AM GMT
That weather really is a shocker.
Report Kriskin December 8, 2012 1:19 AM GMT
Very disappointed on that run.  Didn't pick up at all.  Given  alot to do but still expected ot to pick up.  Outsider of the field wins it

1 beats 3
Report Kriskin December 8, 2012 1:21 AM GMT
The winner at Mountain was racing over a route for the first time.  I feel the jockey on the 2nd thought it wouldn't stay
Report Keefter December 8, 2012 1:24 AM GMT
another low grade Mdn Claimer at CT with a SPF.
Report NMR December 8, 2012 1:26 AM GMT
they always win didn't ya know? Crazy
Report NMR December 8, 2012 1:27 AM GMT
put the house on it Laugh
Report Darlo Bantam December 8, 2012 1:27 AM GMT
I was tempted to steam in after all the shorties getting overturned but I don't do "law of averages"!
Report NMR December 8, 2012 1:28 AM GMT
I ended up backing, had vowed I was done half an hour ago but we'll see.
Report NMR December 8, 2012 1:29 AM GMT
shortie wins
Report Darlo Bantam December 8, 2012 1:30 AM GMT
There you go. Law of averages wins! I lose.
Report NMR December 8, 2012 1:30 AM GMT
not boasting in case anyone accuses me of aftertiming, but I might leave the betting there
Report Keefter December 8, 2012 1:31 AM GMT
pin job at TP, my pin landed on 7 and 10!
Report NMR December 8, 2012 1:32 AM GMT
I didn't even bother! watching it though.
Report NMR December 8, 2012 1:33 AM GMT
1 hacks up
Report NMR December 8, 2012 1:34 AM GMT
15.8 BSP
Report Keefter December 8, 2012 1:36 AM GMT
yeah he got right away from them. TP seems a bit like Lingfield to me, fairly fair track doesnt seem to favour the front runners or the closers.
Report NMR December 8, 2012 1:38 AM GMT
Lingfield, now there's a layers track!
Report NMR December 8, 2012 1:39 AM GMT
Though I happened to find Focail Maith couple of days ago I generally struggle there
Report Keefter December 8, 2012 1:40 AM GMT
what is it with these jockeys at DD??? they all think they can go 22 seconds a quarter and win. every race the same rookie stuff.
Report NMR December 8, 2012 1:51 AM GMT
Lets face it US jocks are not of the same standard generally as Europeans, or at least it comes across that way.
Report NMR December 8, 2012 1:51 AM GMT
And I was away and missed an odds on poke at penn that won
Report NMR December 8, 2012 1:52 AM GMT
THEONLYWAYFORWARD the track SP was 3/5, BSP was 1.87. Track SP is always shorter.
Report Keefter December 8, 2012 2:00 AM GMT
people seem pretty good at accurately predicting the eventual track SP on runners. I've no idea how they achieve it tbh
Report NMR December 8, 2012 2:11 AM GMT
Never mind that, just heard of some bad civil unrest near me so the racin has taken back seat Blush
Report Keefter December 8, 2012 2:14 AM GMT
Belfast I take it? :(
Report NMR December 8, 2012 2:23 AM GMT
Is it that abvious? nowehere in the world like us eh?
Report NMR December 8, 2012 2:24 AM GMT
I like 20 miles away from the city but was driving to my GF's last night (away from the city) but about 10 riote jeeps passed me on dual carriageway with sirens so i followed them, nothing really was happeneing but apparently it has really kicked off in Belfast.
Report Keefter December 8, 2012 2:27 AM GMT
I had BBC news on in the background.... hope it all gets sorted out
Report NMR December 8, 2012 2:44 AM GMT
I can see this going on for some time.
Report NMR December 8, 2012 2:44 AM GMT
right back to racing for a while
Report NMR December 8, 2012 2:45 AM GMT
backed 1 @CT
Report NMR December 8, 2012 2:46 AM GMT
against my better judgement that my bets at this time of night usually lose
Report NMR December 8, 2012 2:55 AM GMT
odds on shot loses, second night in a row I post this about CT, the track where favourites always win
Report NMR December 8, 2012 3:13 AM GMT
On law of averages this one should win...so backed it Crazy
Report NMR December 8, 2012 3:43 AM GMT
Goodnight and joy be with you all.
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