New Posts For Thread: Testing the theory that 'broker forecasts' are uselesshttps://community.betfair.com/tradefair__financials/go/thread/view/94198/30614075/testing-the-theory-that-broker-forecasts-are-uselessHargreaves Lansdowne's website helpfully displays a 'broker forecasts' temperature bar for stocks.If it's in the Red half - sellIf it's in the Blue half - the brokers on balance say buyIn theory if everything is perfectly priced, and there's no inflaDr Crippen posted some time ago:-"What bongo has established here is to be commended; yet it simply shows that share movements aren't driven simply by the fundamentals.Because we can be sure that brokers forecasts are logical conclusions arrived at fhttps://community.betfair.com/tradefair__financials/go/thread/view/94198/30614075/testing-the-theory-that-broker-forecasts-are-useless?post_id=557688299#557688299Dr Crippen posted some time ago:-"What bongo has established here is to be commended; yet it simply shows that share movements aren't driven simply by the fundamentals.Because we can be sure that brokers forecasts are logical conclusions arrived at fSat, 03 Aug 2019 21:52:13 -0500Try again!And the Contra Contra Broker High Risk Fund IV:https://community.betfair.com/tradefair__financials/go/thread/view/94198/30614075/testing-the-theory-that-broker-forecasts-are-useless?post_id=556851703#556851703Try again!And the Contra Contra Broker High Risk Fund IV:Tue, 19 Mar 2019 06:28:38 -0500As you can tell by now, I am keeping this running for my own amusement but on the off-chance that anyone is interested here are the new picks to run from 13/03/2019 – 13/09/2019:First the Contra Broker High Risk Fund VI:And the Contra Contra Brokerhttps://community.betfair.com/tradefair__financials/go/thread/view/94198/30614075/testing-the-theory-that-broker-forecasts-are-useless?post_id=556851695#556851695As you can tell by now, I am keeping this running for my own amusement but on the off-chance that anyone is interested here are the new picks to run from 13/03/2019 – 13/09/2019:First the Contra Broker High Risk Fund VI:And the Contra Contra BrokerTue, 19 Mar 2019 06:26:17 -0500Running Totals:https://community.betfair.com/tradefair__financials/go/thread/view/94198/30614075/testing-the-theory-that-broker-forecasts-are-useless?post_id=556851677#556851677Running Totals:Tue, 19 Mar 2019 06:21:16 -0500Another 6 months gone and we have had our first reversal for the Contra Broker High Risk Fund (Brokers Strong Sells):Benchmark -1.68%Portfolio -6.14%Difference -4.46%However, the Contra Contra Broker High Risk Fund has continued to show howhttps://community.betfair.com/tradefair__financials/go/thread/view/94198/30614075/testing-the-theory-that-broker-forecasts-are-useless?post_id=556851655#556851655Another 6 months gone and we have had our first reversal for the Contra Broker High Risk Fund (Brokers Strong Sells):Benchmark -1.68%Portfolio -6.14%Difference -4.46%However, the Contra Contra Broker High Risk Fund has continued to show howTue, 19 Mar 2019 06:15:45 -0500I forgot to mention that Paddy Power Betfair have made an appearance in the fund, rating as a "sell" or "strong sell" by four out of six brokers.https://community.betfair.com/tradefair__financials/go/thread/view/94198/30614075/testing-the-theory-that-broker-forecasts-are-useless?post_id=555541697#555541697I forgot to mention that Paddy Power Betfair have made an appearance in the fund, rating as a "sell" or "strong sell" by four out of six brokers.Fri, 14 Sep 2018 10:07:17 -0500As before, the funds will run for 6 months (so will close 13th March 2019).It will be interesting to see if the fund can outperform the benchmark FTSE yet again. I suspect it may perform badly during a big downturn - which we haven't seen yet.https://community.betfair.com/tradefair__financials/go/thread/view/94198/30614075/testing-the-theory-that-broker-forecasts-are-useless?post_id=555541659#555541659As before, the funds will run for 6 months (so will close 13th March 2019).It will be interesting to see if the fund can outperform the benchmark FTSE yet again. I suspect it may perform badly during a big downturn - which we haven't seen yet.Fri, 14 Sep 2018 09:59:32 -0500Okay – Here are the new constituents for the Contra Broker High Risk Fund V. There were only four actually rated as “sells” but using the same method as before, I have taken all the stocks that rate negatively. This gives nine stocks:Here is thhttps://community.betfair.com/tradefair__financials/go/thread/view/94198/30614075/testing-the-theory-that-broker-forecasts-are-useless?post_id=555541641#555541641Okay – Here are the new constituents for the Contra Broker High Risk Fund V. There were only four actually rated as “sells” but using the same method as before, I have taken all the stocks that rate negatively. This gives nine stocks:Here is thFri, 14 Sep 2018 09:55:57 -0500That means that since I started doing this a year ago, the Contra Broker High Risk Fund (which takes the brokers forecasts “Strong Sells”) has out-performed the FTSE as a whole by 15.41%.Portfolio +14.08%FTSE -1.33%Difference +15.41%https://community.betfair.com/tradefair__financials/go/thread/view/94198/30614075/testing-the-theory-that-broker-forecasts-are-useless?post_id=555540155#555540155That means that since I started doing this a year ago, the Contra Broker High Risk Fund (which takes the brokers forecasts “Strong Sells”) has out-performed the FTSE as a whole by 15.41%.Portfolio +14.08%FTSE -1.33%Difference +15.41%Fri, 14 Sep 2018 06:02:19 -0500Last night marked another 6 months gone and the end of the latest fund (Contra Broker High Risk Fund IV):Once again it outshone the FTSE – This time by a massive 10.15%!!!!Portfolio +12.15%FTSE +2.00%Difference +10.15%As before, I alsohttps://community.betfair.com/tradefair__financials/go/thread/view/94198/30614075/testing-the-theory-that-broker-forecasts-are-useless?post_id=555540085#555540085Last night marked another 6 months gone and the end of the latest fund (Contra Broker High Risk Fund IV):Once again it outshone the FTSE – This time by a massive 10.15%!!!!Portfolio +12.15%FTSE +2.00%Difference +10.15%As before, I alsoFri, 14 Sep 2018 05:45:35 -0500