US OPEN PREDICTIONS 2024

GL mes. You've had a great year so far.

My picks.

Men

L.Musetti (Nap) W 180 RF 100
D.Medvedev (Nb) W 22 RF 10
A.Rublev W 65 RF 13.5

Long shot
A.Fils W 660 RF 120
M.Arnaldi W 1000 RF 210

Watch the two Italians that aren't constantly in the headlines.
Musetti is having an exceptional year, looked great in Croatia and at the Olympics and it's time for his first slam at a big price.
Rublev is being really consistent and has quite a good draw.
Sinner should probably win but at 4.7 is heading into a slam with far too much drama swirling around him, especially with Novak's comments as reported in yesterday's Guardian.
Daniil has a great shot, no banana skins in the early rounds and has good memories here. He's been a bit quiet coming off a very good Wimbledon.
Arnaldi looked superb in Canada earlier in the month and should get through the first couple of rounds then let's see against Hurkacz
Fils got a superb title win over Zverev last month, hasn't found his feet on the hard courts in August but he likes the big stage. 

Women

J.Pegula (Nap) W 17.5 RF 7.2
L.Fernandez (Nb) W 100 RF 40
E.Raducanu W 55 RF 21

Long shots
L.Sun W 370 RF 130
E.Andreeva W 1000 RF 210

Fake big 3 (and Coco) specials. Rybakina to go out in week 1. Coco to go out before the QF.

I think desire and drive will play a massive factor. Who really needs this?
JPeg has playes a lot of tennis in August so is a risk but this is probably her best chance at a slam
Good to see Leylah featuring in the Mes preview. She's coming in with some decent form after a decent grass season then taking down Rybakina in Cincinatti and nearly beating JPeg.
I'd love to see a third round match against Osty or Osaka. Most importantly she's in Rybakina's quarter, the weakest member of the fake big 3
Sun will be hurting from mugging the first set of the Monterrey final but she's shown her wimbedon run was no fluke.
She played some amazing tennis though and looks really driven.
The last time Emma came into the US Open off the back of reaching R16 at Wimbledon she won the title. Her tournamnet skipping has been rubbing people up the wrong way but at the Citi open she played well against Peyton and Badosa.
It would be silly to write her off although she's in Iga's quarter.
Long shot Erika (the other Andreeva) looked impressive in Monterrey taking down DRC and Kalinina. She's going to have to beat Zheng or Amanda to get through the first week though how much does Anisimova have left in the tank after playing so much more tennis than last year.

Sabalenka is very short but a logical finalist and it could be a repeat of the Cincinatti final.
However I would love to see mes's alt value final of Leylah vs Sabalenka, a repeat of the 2021 SF.

I have Gauff going out fairly early as well, Round 4 to Navarro
Raducanu winning here will be going from one extreme win at the US Open to another, her draw in 2021 was soft as opposed to Leyla's, here she'd have to go through, Kenin, Pegula, top Brit Boulter, Collins, Swiatek/Andreeva, Fernandez/Rybakina, Sabalenka. That could mean 4 slam winners, a slam finalist, the best Brit atm and the former World number 3.
I can buy into Mussetti, hopefully the servebot Opelka doesn't put him out early.

Good write ups guys ,lots of food for thought there for us punters .

Only gone with the obvious - Sabalenka. I suspect loads will have done that so the bookmakers probably have the field running for them.

I did think about Fernandez, but even with the h2h losing to Bogdan was not a good result. I doubt she is where she was when she ran to the final. Backed her that year and it was a hard result to take.

Shnaider has pretty quickly made the top 20, but I think she needs to find quite a bit more on movement and serve to be pushing up much further and challenging in Slams.

Accumulator stuffed yesterday by Bogdan losing to Rus despite having a 4-0 record and coming off that Fernandez win. No comfort that all the others won easily.

WTF was I thinking with Collins, not for the first time either. Not any more Danielle AKA BTEC Wozniacki. Rune as well

Come on Leyla

Leylah smashing up Potapova in that first set. She is looking fierce tonight, rocking that prime David Haye haircut and very focused and within herself much like a pugilist.
Her serve is literally unrecognisable from New York three years ago, the throw is a little random but she adjusts to it well. She's not here to mess about that's for sure.

and with Bianca Jolie backing her up, the sky is the limit!!!

Two hours is a long time in tennis. She's now out.

what a jinx post!

I guess so
It was a pretty high quality match for a first round. Both playing really well at times, not much mugging. Potapova certainly had the 'desire and drive' and didn't let up.

it was a brutal R1 draw.

the only thing that could save this thread is Vekic or Shnaider making the final, despite the odds I'd give Vekic more hope, that Olympic final must kill her, she looked like she wanted it so bad, could be inspiring her here for extra motivation given it's still raw, having a fairly good second half of the season Hamburger onwards.

Well my womens' picks are done with the exception of my main nap Jessica Pegula who has curiously drifted out to 19.5 despite showing that she wasn't burnt out from too much tennis in August, her section opening up and (most importantly) confirmation she's not splitting her time and energy with the doubles for the first time in a long time. I won't mention her again so as not to jinx her.
Erika at 1000 got a set up on a top 10 player before the heat melted her. Emma was a bad pick though, I bought into her PR and how she looked at the Citi Open. Leylah's match I've watched back, really high quality from both players so can't really complain.

All my men doing well though. Good comeback from Rublev. I'm going to add on Mensik (W 820 RF 200) whose route is helped by Stef's implosion. Possibly only Danil would be a step too far in his quarter with Sinner looking unconvincing.

add this up properly tomorrow, but lost -12.31pts I think at first glance

so around +33pts or so for the outright predictions in this years 4 Grand Slams for the men and women

This year in total
Australian Open  -8.45       
French Open +22.355 pts   
Wimbledon +31.74pts
US Open -12.31

Total = +33.335pts

128 pts staked yielding a 26% ROI

128 being a very apt number with there being 128 players in a slam draw.

Round 1 correct picks
Aus:  47 out of 64 ATP.................41 out of 64 WTA
French: 41 out of 64 ATP...............42 out of 64 WTA
Wimbledon: 45 out of 64 ATP............45 out of 64 WTA
US Open: 42 out of 64 ATP..............44 out of 64 WTA

Spoiler: Show


2024

Quarters
Winners = 19 (13 main selection, 6 Alternative/value)
Totals Staked: 64pts, Pts won: +103.13, Pts lost: -45, Total: +58.13pts


Reach the final
Winners: = 6
Totals: = Staked: 32pts, Pts won +14.955, Pts Lost: -26, Total: -11.045


Finalists
Winners: = 1
Totals: Staked: = 16, Pts won: +10, Pts Lost: -15, Total: -5pts


Slam Winners
Winners: 2
Totals: Staked: = 16, Pts Won: +5.25, Pts Lost: 14, Total: -8.75pts

So it was basically my quarter winners picks that was the real bread winner, good to know.

See you next year.


Kind Regards.

Like the method mes - gives you some good ideas where you're going right/wrong in picks. And wp for an overall profit.

Should you just focus on picking quarter winners though?!

I'd prefer to focus on getting better at predicting the winners/finalists etc, but I see your point, in general I like to see how my overall predictions fare anyway, win or lose.

Yes, always a question - work on your weaker areas to get better all-round results, or just concentrate on the strengths...

I had a few near misses with finalists, Andreeva 1 round away at 18/1, Medvedev 1 round away at 20/1 - and if he'd have won it' would also have meant a 40/1 final with Novak, alas, they all lost.