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edy
23 Aug 24 19:08
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Date Joined: 13 Dec 06
| Topic/replies: 284,980 | Blogger: edy's blog
Ayo, with the US Open main draw starting on Monday it's time for y'all to get yourselves some mad props by participating in this fire comp and winning it. Going into the tournament we have snowynoon and SamuelMertens with two titles each on the year so far, trailed by Blencathra and stocks with one each.

HOW TO PLAY:

Rule changes compared to Wimbledon - None (Veterans need not necessarily read the below):

Basic rules:

For each day of play, pick one player that you think will win their match. If your player wins, you advance to the next day and get to pick again. If your player loses, you are out. Each player can only be chosen once over the course of the tournament. The picks continue every day until only one person is left, everyone has been eliminated, or the tournament has finished. Each pick has to be submitted before the relevant match starts and once you've submitted the pick, you are stuck with it unless the match did not happen due to a prematch withdrawal. In that case you get to submit a new pick. That's the basic rules already.

Tiebreaker:

If multiple people go out on the same day and no-one remains, these last people to go out submit their best educated judgements regarding the outcome of the final match of the tournament - winner of the final, amount of sets lost by the winner, amount of games lost by the winner, points won by the winner. Judged also in that order. If both are the same in winner, then we go to sets. If both also had the same number of sets, then we go to games. If that's also still the same or the same difference to the actual number, then points won. That should hopefully always lead to a conclusion.

To enable that, those tiebreaker judgements will be sent to me per private message (or maybe X in some cases) instead of being publically announced in the thread. If the tiebreaker involves me, we'd have to find someone else who accepts the private messages, but I'm positive that will not be a problem.

Onto the cases:

Case: A pick I made became invalid because the match didn't happen due to a withdrawal. I have a life and don't sit on the computer all day to monitor such things, so wasn't able to submit a replacement pick. Am I screwed?
Decision: No, there is a backup solution. The last to start eligible favourite (I will use average odds on tennisexplorer.com) of the day is automatically entered for you. Eligible means player that had not been picked yet on a previous day.

Case: There was a retirement. Does the pick still count?
Decision: Yes, picks count the moment 1 ball has been played in the match.

Case: I looked at the wrong schedule and picked a player that doesn't even play. What now?
Decision: Please submit a new pick.

Case: A lot of matches were rescheduled for the next day due to rain. Can I pick from those on the new day?
Decision: No, rescheduled matches are not eligible to be picked from. If this situation arises, I will try to post a list of ineligible matches.

Case: I have the same amount of winning picks as someone else, but I ran out of picks whereas the other person was able to make another pick (which then lost). What happens?
Decision: The other person finishes ahead of you. Think of it this way. The moment you ran out of picks to make, you navigated your bicycle into a big mountain of dung. You are unharmed, but you cannot continue your ride on the bike. The other person only rode their bike into the pile of dung the moment their pick lost, which is a long time after you did it. Therefore the other person made it further and gets to finish ahead of you.

Case: I have a great suggestion for the comp. Am I allowed to tell you and others?
Decision: Sure, suggestions are always welcome!

At the end, glory, lots of forum cred, and an entry into the competition's Hall of Fame awaits the ultimate winner. The Hall of Fame can be found at:

https://community.betfair.com/tennis/go/thread/view/94186/30945693/suicide-pool-winners-throughout-the-years

I hope that covers everything. If there are any additional questions, feel free to ask.
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Report Journeyman August 27, 2024 4:28 PM BST
What can possibly go wrong
Report SamuelMertensBertens August 27, 2024 4:40 PM BST
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect

Sad
Report snowynoon August 28, 2024 10:17 AM BST
Day 3 Alexandrova
Report mesmerised August 28, 2024 11:38 AM BST
Krejcikova
Report Blencathra August 28, 2024 11:55 AM BST
Maddy Keys
Report edy August 28, 2024 12:07 PM BST
Through to day 3:

aaronh: Krejcikova, Krueger
Anubis8: Badosa, Krueger
Blencathra: Stearns, Krueger
edy: Kalinina, Ponchet
GRANTCKING: Kalinina, Krueger
Journeyman: Stearns, Krueger
mesmerised: Vekic, Wozniacki
SamuelMertensBertens: Ruse, Krueger
snowynoon: Krejcikova, Pavlyuchenkova
wisewords: Svitolina, Krueger

Out on day 2:

Dolehide def. Wimbledon 2024 champ stocks
Report SamuelMertensBertens August 28, 2024 2:30 PM BST
Keys
Report Anubis8 August 28, 2024 2:44 PM BST
Marta Kostyuk
Report edy August 28, 2024 3:44 PM BST
Grant: Keys
aaron: Kostyuk
Report wisewords August 28, 2024 3:46 PM BST
Barbora Krejcikova
Report edy August 28, 2024 3:49 PM BST
Alexandrova
Report Journeyman August 28, 2024 3:52 PM BST
E.Navarro
Report mesmerised August 28, 2024 7:13 PM BST
I don't like doing down women's tennis, but it just wouldn't happen in the mens', you won Wimbledon Babora and yet lost in Round 2 to some Random Romanian plodder who wouldn't be recognised in her local Tesco, then again, neither would BabsLaugh
Report SamuelMertensBertens August 28, 2024 8:36 PM BST

Aug 28, 2024 -- 7:13PM, mesmerised wrote:


I don't like doing down women's tennis, but it just wouldn't happen in the mens', you won Wimbledon Babora and yet lost in Round 2 to some Random Romanian plodder who wouldn't be recognised in her local Tesco, then again, neither would Babs


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FcmX1uAlYQ&t=71s

Report edy August 29, 2024 12:31 AM BST
Through to day 4:

aaronh: Krejcikova, Krueger, Kostyuk
Anubis8: Badosa, Krueger, Kostyuk
Blencathra: Stearns, Krueger, Keys
edy: Kalinina, Ponchet, Alexandrova
GRANTCKING: Kalinina, Krueger, Keys
Journeyman: Stearns, Krueger, Navarro
SamuelMertensBertens: Ruse, Krueger, Keys
snowynoon: Krejcikova, Pavlyuchenkova, Alexandrova

Out on day 3:

Ruse def. mesmerised, wisewords
Report SamuelMertensBertens August 29, 2024 4:25 AM BST
Wozniacki Scared
Report Blencathra August 29, 2024 6:09 AM BST
K Boulter
Report snowynoon August 29, 2024 11:31 AM BST
Potapova
Report edy August 29, 2024 1:26 PM BST
Grant: Potapova
Aaron: Dolehide
Report edy August 29, 2024 3:30 PM BST
Kalinskaya
Report Journeyman August 29, 2024 3:44 PM BST
A.Kalinskaya
Report Anubis8 August 29, 2024 4:10 PM BST
Anastasia Potapova
Report Journeyman August 29, 2024 4:15 PM BST
Btw I'm pretty sure I'm the only player to have picked Stearns.
Doesn't make much difference just now but pointing it out to avoid potential confusion later on.
Report edy August 29, 2024 4:51 PM BST
Has anyone ever seen Stearns and Svitolina together? I think they are the same person.
Report Anubis8 August 30, 2024 10:37 AM BST
Qinwen Zheng
Report edy August 30, 2024 11:02 AM BST
Through to day 5:

Anubis8: Badosa, Krueger, Kostyuk, Potapova
edy: Kalinina, Ponchet, Alexandrova, Kalinskaya
GRANTCKING: Kalinina, Krueger, Keys, Potapova
Journeyman: Stearns, Krueger, Navarro, Kalinskaya
SamuelMertensBertens: Ruse, Krueger, Keys, Wozniacki
snowynoon: Krejcikova, Pavlyuchenkova, Alexandrova, Potapova

Out on day 4:

Errani def. aaronh
Bouzas Maneiro def. Blencathra
Report edy August 30, 2024 1:33 PM BST
Grant takes Badosa
Report snowynoon August 30, 2024 1:47 PM BST
Badosa
Report edy August 30, 2024 3:23 PM BST
Qinwen
Report SamuelMertensBertens August 30, 2024 3:58 PM BST
Badosa
Report Journeyman August 30, 2024 3:59 PM BST
E.G.Ruse
Report edy August 30, 2024 4:36 PM BST
Surprised
Report SamuelMertensBertens August 30, 2024 6:42 PM BST
phew

Day 6: Shnaider.
Report Journeyman August 30, 2024 6:48 PM BST
Can't get much closer than a matchpoint! It was worth a try.
GL everyone left.
Report edy August 30, 2024 10:38 PM BST
Thanks JM. Gutsy play that almost came off.

Through to day 6:

Anubis8: Badosa, Krueger, Kostyuk, Potapova, Q. Zheng
edy: Kalinina, Ponchet, Alexandrova, Kalinskaya, Q. Zheng
GRANTCKING: Kalinina, Krueger, Keys, Potapova, Badosa
SamuelMertensBertens: Ruse, Krueger, Keys, Wozniacki, Badosa
snowynoon: Krejcikova, Pavlyuchenkova, Alexandrova, Potapova, Badosa

Out on day 5:

Badosa's iron will def. Journeyman
Report snowynoon August 31, 2024 12:08 PM BST
Day 6 Schnaider
Report edy August 31, 2024 1:22 PM BST
Grant takes Shnaider
Report Anubis8 August 31, 2024 2:03 PM BST
Caroline Wozniacki
Report edy August 31, 2024 3:38 PM BST
Shnaider.... Scared
Report SamuelMertensBertens August 31, 2024 7:25 PM BST
Day 7: Zheng
Report edy August 31, 2024 9:41 PM BST
Through to day 7:

Anubis8: Badosa, Krueger, Kostyuk, Potapova, Q. Zheng, Wozniacki
edy: Kalinina, Ponchet, Alexandrova, Kalinskaya, Q. Zheng, Shnaider
GRANTCKING: Kalinina, Krueger, Keys, Potapova, Badosa, Shnaider
SamuelMertensBertens: Ruse, Krueger, Keys, Wozniacki, Badosa, Shnaider
snowynoon: Krejcikova, Pavlyuchenkova, Alexandrova, Potapova, Badosa, Shnaider
Report snowynoon September 1, 2024 2:50 PM BST
Day 7 Gauff.
Report Anubis8 September 1, 2024 3:01 PM BST
Aryna Sabalenka
Report edy September 1, 2024 3:38 PM BST
Grant takes Qinwen
Report edy September 1, 2024 3:56 PM BST
Badosa
Report edy September 2, 2024 10:09 AM BST
Through to day 8:

Anubis8: Badosa, Krueger, Kostyuk, Potapova, Q. Zheng, Wozniacki, Sabalenka
edy: Kalinina, Ponchet, Alexandrova, Kalinskaya, Q. Zheng, Shnaider, Badosa
GRANTCKING: Kalinina, Krueger, Keys, Potapova, Badosa, Shnaider, Q. Zheng
SamuelMertensBertens: Ruse, Krueger, Keys, Wozniacki, Badosa, Shnaider, Q. Zheng

Out on day 7:

Navarro def. snowynoon
Report Anubis8 September 2, 2024 12:19 PM BST
Jessica Pegula
Report snowynoon September 2, 2024 2:07 PM BST
I did Gauff now I'm off !Good luck to the final 4.
Report edy September 2, 2024 5:08 PM BST
Grant and I take Pegula.
Report Journeyman September 2, 2024 6:00 PM BST
Pegula takes the set. BHM pick incoming Cool
Report SamuelMertensBertens September 2, 2024 6:40 PM BST
well it was worth a shot ...

Haddad Maia
Report edy September 2, 2024 6:44 PM BST
Fully expected you to take Iga. It's what I was planning on doing if you had blinked and taken Pegula before I did.
Report SamuelMertensBertens September 2, 2024 7:00 PM BST
That did cross my mind, but I have a pretty good feeling about BHM, or rather I don't think much these Woz these days, especially in long matches which BHM loves. If she pulls it off I keep my options open for Iga/Jess should that happen and I am still alive by that point. But yeah I generally don't like to take even shots this early in the comp.
Report edy September 2, 2024 10:50 PM BST
Through to day 9:

Anubis8: Badosa, Krueger, Kostyuk, Potapova, Q. Zheng, Wozniacki, Sabalenka, Pegula
edy: Kalinina, Ponchet, Alexandrova, Kalinskaya, Q. Zheng, Shnaider, Badosa, Pegula
GRANTCKING: Kalinina, Krueger, Keys, Potapova, Badosa, Shnaider, Q. Zheng, Pegula
SamuelMertensBertens: Ruse, Krueger, Keys, Wozniacki, Badosa, Shnaider, Q. Zheng, Haddad Maia
Report SamuelMertensBertens September 2, 2024 11:09 PM BST
Sabalenka
Report Anubis8 September 3, 2024 12:59 PM BST
Emma Navarro
Report edy September 3, 2024 2:02 PM BST
Sabalenka
Report edy September 3, 2024 2:31 PM BST
Grant takes Sabalenka
Report Journeyman September 3, 2024 10:36 PM BST
Anubis spotted in a 'Let's Go Qinwen' t-shirt
Report Anubis8 September 3, 2024 11:00 PM BST
Yes, I'm hoping to wake up in the morning to my trophy.
Report SamuelMertensBertens September 4, 2024 1:32 AM BST
We all go on!
Report edy September 4, 2024 1:53 AM BST
Through to day 10:

Anubis8: Badosa, Krueger, Kostyuk, Potapova, Q. Zheng, Wozniacki, Sabalenka, Pegula, Navarro
edy: Kalinina, Ponchet, Alexandrova, Kalinskaya, Q. Zheng, Shnaider, Badosa, Pegula, Sabalenka
GRANTCKING: Kalinina, Krueger, Keys, Potapova, Badosa, Shnaider, Q. Zheng, Pegula, Sabalenka
SamuelMertensBertens: Ruse, Krueger, Keys, Wozniacki, Badosa, Shnaider, Q. Zheng, Haddad Maia, Sabalenka
Report edy September 4, 2024 1:53 AM BST
Sorry, Anubis8, you'll have to endure us for at least one more day.
Report Anubis8 September 4, 2024 11:18 AM BST
It wasn't even close.

Karolina Muchova
Report SamuelMertensBertens September 4, 2024 1:50 PM BST
Muchova
Report edy September 4, 2024 3:53 PM BST
Grant takes Muchova
Report edy September 4, 2024 4:30 PM BST
To play for the draw or not to...
Report SamuelMertensBertens September 4, 2024 4:57 PM BST
TB gives you about 25% chance of winning. Going for BHM today gives you a 26.6% chance of winning if you believe the odds are correct. Then there's of course the scenario where Muchova wins and Iga loses which would favor me in case we all pick Muchova since I would be only one left with the Pegula option.
Report edy September 4, 2024 4:59 PM BST
Tiebreaker gives me a far bigger chance with my expert knowledge.
Report edy September 4, 2024 5:00 PM BST
Like recently when wisewords asked how many games Shibahara would win against Iga. Who said "1"? I did!
Report SamuelMertensBertens September 4, 2024 5:01 PM BST
Didn't you see how shrewd I was with the BK/Paolini one? Although my brain could be very fried from all the thinking I've had to do these two weeks.
Report SamuelMertensBertens September 4, 2024 5:01 PM BST
You know your hipster players, I will give you that.
Report edy September 4, 2024 5:09 PM BST
You seem rather eager to talk me out of playing for the draw. Someone doth protest too much because they must be scared of having to compete against me in a tiebreaker.
Report edy September 4, 2024 5:09 PM BST
I take Muchova.
Report SamuelMertensBertens September 4, 2024 5:47 PM BST
Let's say Muchova wins today.
For Friday edy, grant both go Navarro and anubis and I go Iga.
Navarro and Iga both win.
anubis will then be out cause he has no picks left, but for the final edy and grant go Iga and I go Navarro.
If Navarro wins I will then win, but if Iga wins it's a tie between Edy and Grant. But the final will already have been played. In this scenario are Edy and Grant co-winners because they both made it to the end or do we still use a tiebreaker to determine a sole winner?
Should in this case tiebreaker be posted before the final just to break up the tie in needed? Of course if Navarro wins these tiebreaker picks will not matter.
I personally think a shared joy is a joy doubled in this case, but I don't think this exact scenario was addressed.
Report edy September 4, 2024 6:08 PM BST
It was addressed in the original questionnaire as a draft of the rule

https://community.betfair.com/tennis/go/thread/view/94186/31805061/mouse-trap-trophy-rule-questionnaire

and then the first version of the rule at last year's US Open

https://community.betfair.com/tennis/go/thread/view/94186/31814989/2023-us-open-mouse-trap-trophy-formerly-suicide-comp-womens-edition

Rule changes compared to Wimbledon - 2:

1) To determine a single winner at the end of the comp, a tiebreaker is introduced in case all remaining participants go out on the same day. The concerned parties submit their best educated judgement regarding the outcome of the final match of the tournament - winner, amount of sets lost by the winner, amount of games lost by the winner. Judged also in that order. If both are the same in winner, then we go to sets. If both also had the same number of sets, then we go to games.

To enable that, those tiebreaker judgements will be sent to me per private message(or maybe twitter in some cases) instead of being publically announced in the thread. If the tiebreaker involves me, we'd have to find someone else who accepts the private messages, but I'm positive that will not be a problem.

If the situation arises that two heroic people make it all the way to the final match of the tournament, something we've never had I think, but you never know, and they can theoretically tie, then those judgements will also be sent to the host.


but I removed it when I phrased it as a general rule afterwards instead of as a rule change as it simply wasn't going to happen, right?
Report SamuelMertensBertens September 4, 2024 6:12 PM BST
yeah no-one's picking Navarro tomorrow, but it's good that this has already been addressed then :)
Report SamuelMertensBertens September 4, 2024 6:16 PM BST
I also think picks is a better word than judgements Happy
Report edy September 4, 2024 6:16 PM BST
Will try to remember to maybe include it in the special cases at the bottom of the introductory post.....but that is already so long.....

Maybe I should split it in two for the future. A nice and short accessible opening post followed by the special cases in an extra post.
Report SamuelMertensBertens September 4, 2024 6:25 PM BST
I don't think you need to add. Just mention it if's a possibility by mid/late 2nd week and refer to the thread where this was originally discussed.

Maybe I should split it in two for the future. A nice and short accessible opening post followed by the special cases in an extra post.
this would also work with a link or have it in spoiler tags.
Report SamuelMertensBertens September 4, 2024 6:41 PM BST
We all march on!
Anubis will need Iga to win tonight or he's stuck in the dung.
Report edy September 4, 2024 6:53 PM BST
Spoiler tags is a good idea. Might hide it with those
Report edy September 4, 2024 6:57 PM BST
Getting to write

Dung hill def. Anubis8

later tonight sounds enticing even if I wish Anubis all the best luck.
Report edy September 5, 2024 1:49 AM BST
Through to day 11:

edy: Kalinina, Ponchet, Alexandrova, Kalinskaya, Q. Zheng, Shnaider, Badosa, Pegula, Sabalenka, Muchova
GRANTCKING: Kalinina, Krueger, Keys, Potapova, Badosa, Shnaider, Q. Zheng, Pegula, Sabalenka, Muchova
SamuelMertensBertens: Ruse, Krueger, Keys, Wozniacki, Badosa, Shnaider, Q. Zheng, Haddad Maia, Sabalenka, Muchova

Out after day 10:

Dung hill def. Anubis8
Report SamuelMertensBertens September 5, 2024 1:51 AM BST
Day 11: Pegula
Report edy September 5, 2024 1:59 AM BST
Well...uhm....guess I'm going to take Emma Navarro.
Report SamuelMertensBertens September 5, 2024 2:35 AM BST
Grant will have to as well.
We have our own Battle of the Billionaire Daughters here, although I don't know if Ben is that rich.

So:
Pegula/Sabalenka = I win
Pegula/Navarro = I win, because you will all be stuck in the dung
Navarro/Muchova = Grant/Edy tie
Sabalenka/Muchova = threeway tie.
Report edy September 5, 2024 11:35 AM BST
Uhm.....go Muchova!
Report edy September 5, 2024 11:49 AM BST
Grant has confirmed to me that he would like to take Navarro.
Report Anubis8 September 5, 2024 12:25 PM BST
Foiled by Iga's dung hill Sad

Good luck all for the semis.
Report mesmerised September 5, 2024 1:38 PM BST
Need to sort this shared wins nonsense, should be one winner somehow. You don't see players sharing grand slams in singles do you.
Report edy September 5, 2024 1:53 PM BST
It is sorted.
Report mesmerised September 5, 2024 4:00 PM BST
so there's no more sharing titles, according to Caramba's post, there could be ties.
Report Journeyman September 5, 2024 4:20 PM BST
Edy sorted it out. The majority agree with you that it's just better with one winner. Caramba hankers after the day of the 'shared joy' but these days are gone.
Report edy September 5, 2024 7:12 PM BST
Caramba just meant to say there are scenarios where the tiebreaker would come into place.
Report edy September 6, 2024 4:27 AM BST
A US Open sweep and four titles in a single season.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7xIt-tnxcw
Report snowynoon September 6, 2024 1:39 PM BST
Congrats to Sam ,great effort in both comps .
Report SamuelMertensBertens September 6, 2024 2:08 PM BST
Thanks. Was fun and stressful two weeks. And as always thanks edy for hosting the comps.
Report Blencathra September 6, 2024 8:02 PM BST
nice 1 SMB
Report Anubis8 September 6, 2024 10:29 PM BST
Well done Samuel and thanks to Edy for running this again.
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