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after finishing my pre tournament picks with tennisdrawchallenge, I then went back over them to see exactly how many players did I pick that were not favourites to win their match in Round 1, as it turned out, I had picked 12 non favourites out of 64 matches in ATP, and 15 non favourites out of 64 matches in WTA, this is not too far away from the average of non favourites progressing in round 1 over the last 10 seasons at the French Open from 2014 to 2023.
The average number of players in ATP who had progressed in Round 1 whilst being the outsider was 14.9 on average from the 64 matches in that 10 year period (19-19-17-17-20-11-14-16-13-10-10), in WTA it was 18 non favourite players on average progressing from 64 matches (15-16-19-22-20-18-19-18-17-16)
My non favourite predictions for round 1 will be in the first post, going by the average over the 10 years, I'm 3 out in both WTA and ATP, hey ho, there you go. 48 winners is my best ever effort round 1. Day is marginal favourite on average across the bookies to beat Dodin, the closest match up of the round.
I will place level stakes against each selection to see how it fares backing all my selected non favs over the two weeks, assuming I remember to post.
Kind Regards.
The average number of players in ATP who had progressed in Round 1 whilst being the outsider was 14.9 on average from the 64 matches in that 10 year period (19-19-17-17-20-11-14-16-13-10-10), in WTA it was 18 non favourite players on average progressing from 64 matches (15-16-19-22-20-18-19-18-17-16)
My non favourite predictions for round 1 will be in the first post, going by the average over the 10 years, I'm 3 out in both WTA and ATP, hey ho, there you go. 48 winners is my best ever effort round 1. Day is marginal favourite on average across the bookies to beat Dodin, the closest match up of the round.
I will place level stakes against each selection to see how it fares backing all my selected non favs over the two weeks, assuming I remember to post.
Kind Regards.
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ATP
Michelsen to beat De Minaur @ 8
Walton to beat Rinderknech @ 4.5
Safiullin to beat Lajovic @ 2.5
Fognini to beat Van De Zandschulp @ 3
Popyrin to beat Kokkinakis @ 2
Bautista Agut to beat Munar @2
Borges to beat Machac @ 2.2
Nardi to beat Muller @ 2.2
Arnaldi to beat Fils @ 2.3
Sonego to beat Humbert @ 2.5
Monteiro to beat Kecmanovic @ 2.2
O’Connell to beat Misolic @ 2
__________
WTA
Bouzkova to beat Kudermetova @2
Niemeier to beat Wang @ 2.1
Tomova to beat Alexandrova @ 3
Linette to beat Samsonova @2.5
Cristian to beat Ostapenko @ 3
Kenin to beat Siegemund @ 2.37
Korpatsch to beat Kruegar @ 4.5
Burel to beat Kalinskaya@ 2.2
Ferro to beat Parry @ 2.37
Mladenovic to beat Martic @ 5
Barillo Escorihuela to beat Uchijima @ 4.5
Day to beat Dodin @ 1.91
Tomljanovic to beat Yastremksa @ 4
Sramkova to beat Anisimova @ 2.2
Rakhimova to beat Potapova @ 4
Michelsen to beat De Minaur @ 8
Walton to beat Rinderknech @ 4.5
Safiullin to beat Lajovic @ 2.5
Fognini to beat Van De Zandschulp @ 3
Popyrin to beat Kokkinakis @ 2
Bautista Agut to beat Munar @2
Borges to beat Machac @ 2.2
Nardi to beat Muller @ 2.2
Arnaldi to beat Fils @ 2.3
Sonego to beat Humbert @ 2.5
Monteiro to beat Kecmanovic @ 2.2
O’Connell to beat Misolic @ 2
__________
WTA
Bouzkova to beat Kudermetova @2
Niemeier to beat Wang @ 2.1
Tomova to beat Alexandrova @ 3
Linette to beat Samsonova @2.5
Cristian to beat Ostapenko @ 3
Kenin to beat Siegemund @ 2.37
Korpatsch to beat Kruegar @ 4.5
Burel to beat Kalinskaya@ 2.2
Ferro to beat Parry @ 2.37
Mladenovic to beat Martic @ 5
Barillo Escorihuela to beat Uchijima @ 4.5
Day to beat Dodin @ 1.91
Tomljanovic to beat Yastremksa @ 4
Sramkova to beat Anisimova @ 2.2
Rakhimova to beat Potapova @ 4
assuming Lajovic wins here, then thus far, it's running at -1.83pts, with two withdrawals voided, so still every chance of finishing in the black, though odds are against, literally.
free money tommorrow with this 4 fold
to take a set
Kiki, Burillo Escorihuela (say that when you're pissed), Frech, Michelsen
nigh on 20/1
Kind Regards
free money tommorrow with this 4 fold
to take a set
Kiki, Burillo Escorihuela (say that when you're pissed), Frech, Michelsen
nigh on 20/1
Kind Regards
He lost, so that's 5 winners, 11 losers, -1.83pts
Acca 1: Kiki, Irene, Frech, Michelsen to take a set @ 18.05
Acca 2: Cornet & Korpatch to take a set, Errani and Sloane Ranger to win @ 32/1
Acca 1: Kiki, Irene, Frech, Michelsen to take a set @ 18.05
Acca 2: Cornet & Korpatch to take a set, Errani and Sloane Ranger to win @ 32/1
thought this would be tough and it was, first round ends on -5.33pts, both acca's belly flopped as well.
7 wins, 18 lost
Round 2
Wawrinka to beat Kotov 2.25
Marozdsan to beat Dmitrov 3.5
Kwon to beat Korda 6
Muller to beat Arnaldi 2.37
Tiafoe to beat Shap 2.5
Martinez to beat Rublev 6
Wang to beat Fernandez 3
Osorio to beat Jabba 3.4
Golubic to beat Pottypova 4.33
Zidanesek to beat Guaff 20
Osaka to beat Swiatek 13
7 wins, 18 lost
Round 2
Wawrinka to beat Kotov 2.25
Marozdsan to beat Dmitrov 3.5
Kwon to beat Korda 6
Muller to beat Arnaldi 2.37
Tiafoe to beat Shap 2.5
Martinez to beat Rublev 6
Wang to beat Fernandez 3
Osorio to beat Jabba 3.4
Golubic to beat Pottypova 4.33
Zidanesek to beat Guaff 20
Osaka to beat Swiatek 13
they all lost, even if Osaka had won, still losing, Rome had the right idea, back favs, this experiment of trying to back odds against only cannot be done, Kind Regards.
Tennis favs win 70-73% of the time over the course of the season, at the rate I post them, it's not realistic to post a profit in one tournament, maybe if I tried it over the 11 months though.
I remember the last time you did this you had some absolutely wild up and down streaks. Yes a bigger sample size would make sense
yeah that was the tart thread, started amazingly well, 16 wins 5 losses, some were below evens but not by much, first 21 predictions were over the whole course of the Aussie slam, here there's been around 40 in 5 days which is obviosly seriously daft. Next time I'll do it properly or just restart the tart thread which after 72 predictions finished on 8 pts profit.
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