French Open 2024. Will this be the year of the Firestarters or the year of the Nearlymen?

This is not a preview, just a few ruminations .  The three at the top of the market are the obvious favorites and everyone will have their thoughts about which of Djokovic, Alcaraz and Sinner will come through. At the start of the year I said that Sinner would win the Australian Open and I personally think he'll probably follow up here. In the match he lost to Tsitsipas in Monte Carlo he played some great shots and seemed almost as if he was 'in the lab' preparing his extraordinarily effective baseline game for the real task, ie following up his slam win with the French Open. Of course if either Alcaraz or Djokovic bring their best then it would be hard to argue with their heading the market.

With that being said, who of the chasing pack do people think will be ready to take their opportunity should Jannik falter and should Carlos and Novak not follow the script.

I look at two groups of players, the Firestarters and the Nearlymen.

The Nearlymen have reached six slam finals between them without taking that final step of winning the biggest titles. They are priced between 9.2 and 15.

Zverev     @  9.2
Tsitsipas  @  11.5
Ruud       @  15

Zverev comes into this event on the back of a title win in Rome. He has a headache of a first round match against the 14 time champion.  Tsitsipas and Ruud could hardly have had better preparation both reaching the finals of Monte Carlo and Barcelona and sharing the spoils. Ruud also comes into the French as the runner up two years running so if any player might be entitled to feel 'next in line' to win here it would surely be Casper.

However I think there will could be a surprise package and I'm predicting that there will be a very deep run from one of the 'Firestarters', four players whose progression has been far from linear. These players are priced between 38 and 250.
Each has 'lightning in a bottle' talent and the potential to produce something very special.

Musetti       @ 250
Rune          @ 46
Partyman   @ 160
Medvedev  @ 38

Musetti is my favourite player to watch because of his intensity really. If he can learn to really surf the 'white foam on the emotional waves' in matches then he has the potential to become one of the best claycourt players and a Roland Garros champion. It's true that he hasn't done much at the slams so far although the French has been by far his most successful slam venue reaching the fourth round in two of the last three years. He beat Sinner in Monte Carlo last year and will have been inspired watching his compatriot win the Australian Open at the start of this year. As well as his intensity he will be playing inspired and focused by the birth of his son two months before the start of the tournament. Since the start of May he has reached the final of two challengers. He's still only 22 and I think he may be ready to put together an eyecatching run at this event.

Holger is a player with the obvious capacity to be a multiple slam winner although after his heroics of last year (beating Sinner to get to the Monte Carlo final and Novak and Ruud to get to the Rome final) this year has been a bit patchy form wise. He's a work in progress though having beome a far more aggressive player over the course of a year being coached by the always interesting Patrick Mouratoglou followed by a period being coached by Boris Becker.  He is surely going to get a deep run soon when these adjustments really start to 'click'. A big stage like Roland Garros may be the theatre where this happens.

Partyman comes into this slam on the back of a good showing at the Italian Open, taking down Danil and Hurkacz on the way to a closely contested semi final with Jarry. The long suffering American tennis audience (spoilt by a long run of champions like McEnroe, Connors, Agassi and Sampras but who have waited two decades now for a home star to win slams) may not have to wait too much longer because the Partyman has always had the talent but now seems ready to back that with focus and maturity. I don't believe he has lacked bottle but now at 27 he has the discipline (shaped from experience) to back up a thrilling tennis skillset. Just don't expect the Maradona impersonations to end any time soon.

Medvedev. Okay he has already won a slam so his inclusion in this group may raise an eyebrow. Danil still meets the criteria of a Firestarter.  He has lost two slam finals since his US Open win in 2021 but there are additional factors to consider. He is the highest profile Russian tennis player and the backdrop of the war has to be remembered when viewing this year's Melbourne final loss from two sets up.  While clay is Danil's less preferred surface he has a superb draw here. He has put in a lot of work on his relatively weaker forehand and he seems driven and focused. He can be emotionally explosive but it tends to be in the context of the moment (asking the USO crowd if they were stupid, being emotional in press conferences.) He hasn't expended too much energy since the Australian final and has an opportunity to go on a run in the first week.

Any thoughts or other names are welcomed.  Does one of the Nearlymen seem ready to seize the bull's horns and claim the slam title he has undoubtedly dreamed of since he first laced a pair of tennis shoes? Who else is ready to answer if opportunity knocks on the door?