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Tennis Talk 2024: Vol 15 (Rome)

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By:
SamuelMertensBertens
When: 09 May 24 22:54
If Italy had this, they should have had it for SF 1 as well, now?
By:
edy
When: 09 May 24 22:54
His performance had leaked beforehand and all of X (including Aaron and I) were all like: Plain 'Dis is no good live.
By:
Angela Rebecchi
When: 09 May 24 22:56

May 9, 2024 -- 4:54PM, SamuelMertensBertens wrote:


If Italy had this, they should have had it for SF 1 as well, now?


I think all stations get the results. This happened with Finland ages ago too. The whole market is riddled with insiders !

By:
edy
When: 09 May 24 22:56

May 9, 2024 -- 4:54PM, SamuelMertensBertens wrote:


If Italy had this, they should have had it for SF 1 as well, now?


If it was only the local result of the Italian televote, then likely not. Germany only gets to vote in one of the semis and I'd assume it to be the same for the other members of the big 5. So then Italy will not have voted in SF1.

By:
SamuelMertensBertens
When: 09 May 24 22:56

May 9, 2024 -- 4:53PM, Angela Rebecchi wrote:


That says 6% Switzerland. That is shockingly low. They are 1.45 top 3 which I have just layed 2k. Hoping the leak is correct.


The leak is probably correct, can you manupulate a tv screen with AI like that? But some Israel fans might have done shenanigans with the Italian tv voting, similar to how Azer just to manipulate/bribe to get 12's.

By:
SamuelMertensBertens
When: 09 May 24 22:56

May 9, 2024 -- 4:56PM, edy wrote:


May  9, 2024 -- 10:54PM, SamuelMertensBertens wrote:If Italy had this, they should have had it for SF 1 as well, now?If it was only the local result of the Italian televote, then likely not. Germany only gets to vote in one of the semis and I'd assume it to be the same for the other members of the big 5. So then Italy will not have voted in SF1.


ah good point.

By:
Angela Rebecchi
When: 09 May 24 22:56
39% is crazy. I wonder if this was just for Italy's votes, and not the whole semi final.
By:
SamuelMertensBertens
When: 09 May 24 22:57
the uploader said "ISR*EL has won the Italian televote, receiving almost 40% of the votes"
By:
Angela Rebecchi
When: 09 May 24 22:58
Hard to believe Isreal got 39% and Switzerland 6% for the night for all countries. Almost impossible. Starting to think this was just Italy
By:
SamuelMertensBertens
When: 09 May 24 22:58
Isreal is such a bad word amongst ESC fans these days, that an asterisk is needed?
By:
edy
When: 09 May 24 22:58
....It's what I told you initially, Angela....

edy • May 9, 2024 10:42 PM BST
Aaron supplied me with information that the Italian televote leaked. Israel won 40% of that.
By:
Angela Rebecchi
When: 09 May 24 22:59
Israel are quite clever at pulling tricks for exposure. My guess is 8.0 outright is way too low.
By:
edy
When: 09 May 24 22:59
Sorry if I phrased it misleadingly and it doesn't say what I wanted it to say.
By:
Angela Rebecchi
When: 09 May 24 22:59

May 9, 2024 -- 4:58PM, edy wrote:


....It's what I told you initially, Angela....edy • May 9, 2024 10:42 PM BSTAaron supplied me with information that the Italian televote leaked. Israel won 40% of that.


Thanks edy. I got the wrong end of the stick, cheers !

By:
SamuelMertensBertens
When: 09 May 24 23:01
yeah, 60s to 8 for one televote from one country, that might be manipulation/ a bad leak. That is huge, when no other criteria justify a shortening of odds imo.
By:
SamuelMertensBertens
When: 09 May 24 23:02
But could be useful to monitor the spotify number (I take it those are updated often), social media hype etc in the next days.
By:
Angela Rebecchi
When: 09 May 24 23:04
Israel love the exposure too and not out of their abilities to fix this stunt
By:
Angela Rebecchi
When: 09 May 24 23:15
7.4        £113.07    £1,463.42
7.6        £746.51    £1,633.76
7.8        £65.04    £2,180.15
8        £105.94    £4,846.06
8.2            £3,510.19
8.4        £43.42    £5,586.60
8.6            £5,010.00
8.8        £67.00    £2,991.09
9        £93.59    £6,568.61

Matched on Israel. Incredible.
By:
SamuelMertensBertens
When: 09 May 24 23:16
6.6 now. Tele vote 2.8
By:
SamuelMertensBertens
When: 09 May 24 23:17
What if it's a gambling syndicate? What a genius move. Go to Italy, get some hackers and manipulate their televoting and see the market going crazy.
By:
Angela Rebecchi
When: 09 May 24 23:18
Suspect it is something similar. Israel PR, these guys are certainly up to this imho. Can they do this throughout Europe and win it, that is the concern laying, otherwise I suspect the 6.0 now is crazy
By:
SamuelMertensBertens
When: 09 May 24 23:19
it Gola's Spotify numbers shoot up tomorrow, there's some correlation. If not I smell shenanigans, popular with the people but not with the Spotify listeners. Is there a way to check Spotify listenings for Italy only?
By:
Angela Rebecchi
When: 09 May 24 23:25
Switzerland 6%
Israel 39%

Yet both 6.4 outright. Switzerland likely to get a very good jury, none the less, something doesn't add up ! You would assume Switzerland were much bigger drifters, but their price has actually come in since the end of the show where they were around 7.0
By:
Angela Rebecchi
When: 09 May 24 23:26
If there were no insiders I would say Ukraine at 15s were a lovely bet. Great performance and could do an Arcade with a top 4 televote and jury score and pip others.
By:
SamuelMertensBertens
When: 09 May 24 23:36
When Israel won the whole thing in 2018 (but because of the juries, not televoting), they got a 7 out of Italy.
By:
Angela Rebecchi
When: 09 May 24 23:39
Could Israel hack a win ? Wouldn't they love it, they spend so much on Eurovision and wanting to win
By:
wisewords
When: 09 May 24 23:45

May 9, 2024 -- 4:53PM, Angela Rebecchi wrote:


That says 6% Switzerland. That is shockingly low. They are 1.45 top 3 which I have just layed 2k. Hoping the leak is correct.


Toadie the market mover!

By:
SamuelMertensBertens
When: 09 May 24 23:47

May 9, 2024 -- 5:36PM, SamuelMertensBertens wrote:


When Israel won the whole thing in 2018 (but because of the juries, not televoting), they got a 7 out of Italy.


In 2018 they got a 7 out in the F. (finished 4 overall in tele voting).
In 2019 they got 0 in the F. (finished 19 overall in tele voting).
In 2021 they got a 3 for the SF, 0 in the F. (finished 20 overall in tele voting).
In 2023 they got a 6 for the SF, 5 for the F. (finished 5 overall in tele voting).

Not much to go by really. It doesn't show a strong history for Israel doing well which Italian televoters, which suggests some sort of shenanigans. It can of course of also be that Italians really like Gola's song this year, and if so tele voters of other countries should be likely to also do this, but with no Spotify numbers to back this up, I smell shenanigans until I get some sort of further proof.

By:
Angela Rebecchi
When: 09 May 24 23:48
Not quite ! But this is fascinating. Having traded the markets in Eurovision for so long this is the biggest plunge I can remember since Fuego ! I thought Israel were very good but not this good. They are now 5.2 outright which is insane !
By:
SamuelMertensBertens
When: 09 May 24 23:50

May 9, 2024 -- 5:39PM, Angela Rebecchi wrote:


Could Israel hack a win ? Wouldn't they love it, they spend so much on Eurovision and wanting to win


Would they even want to host it next year in these times? (Things might have settled down by then, but they would need to guarantee safety fairly soon).

By:
Angela Rebecchi
When: 09 May 24 23:51
I thought Israel might pop Switzerland in the televotes, but 6% to 40% is really hard to fathom ! It's great PR to go into the final as 2nd favourites. Throw 100k at this, or even more, and it's nothing to their budget for Eurovision. Question is, can they do this throughout Europe, or are there no shenanigans and this is just a genuine vote etc !
By:
Angela Rebecchi
When: 09 May 24 23:51

May 9, 2024 -- 5:50PM, SamuelMertensBertens wrote:


May  9, 2024 -- 11:39PM, Angela Rebecchi wrote:Could Israel hack a win ? Wouldn't they love it, they spend so much on Eurovision and wanting to winWould they even want to host it next year in these times? (Things might have settled down by then, but they would need to guarantee safety fairly soon).


I can imagine just winning, and it being hosted elsewhere, or coming close to winning, would be a massive PR win for them

By:
Angela Rebecchi
When: 09 May 24 23:53
At this rate they might go favourites. Not seen a plunge like this before
By:
SamuelMertensBertens
When: 09 May 24 23:54
https://twitter.com/Eurovision/status/1788689550350455048
Both Switzerland and Isreal under producer's choice. Does that 2nd half then or do they want to spread out the faves?
By:
SamuelMertensBertens
When: 09 May 24 23:54
Who in Europe is friends enough with Isreal to (co)-host?
By:
SamuelMertensBertens
When: 09 May 24 23:55

May 9, 2024 -- 5:51PM, Angela Rebecchi wrote:


I thought Israel might pop Switzerland in the televotes, but 6% to 40% is really hard to fathom ! It's great PR to go into the final as 2nd favourites. Throw 100k at this, or even more, and it's nothing to their budget for Eurovision. Question is, can they do this throughout Europe, or are there no shenanigans and this is just a genuine vote etc !


They wouldn't get away with it. It'd be Ben Johnson at the 1988 Olympics all over again.

By:
Angela Rebecchi
When: 10 May 24 00:01
My £500 20s Ukraine got matched. This was Israel after tonight

4.2    £374.93        £56.82
4.3    £138.95        £2,013.91
4.4    £15.00        £246.01
4.5    £343.03        £4,268.28
4.6    £276.65        £965.38
4.7    £69.96        £1,070.38
4.8    £96.09        £276.00
4.9    £37.76        £4,136.33
5    £41.27        £1,627.36
5.1    £121.58        £2,834.17
5.2    £102.54        £230.82
5.3        £43.89    £375.51
5.4        £27.03    £3,065.10
5.5        £50.00    £4,655.72
5.6        £50.00    £300.00
5.7            £172.64
5.8        £192.18    £669.06
5.9        £7.22    £4,282.74
6        £90.86    £7,757.76
6.2        £56.02    £3,080.46
6.4        £100.86    £3,888.86
6.6        £22.92    £1,013.28
6.8        £56.25    £1,381.16
7        £53.81    £1,874.31
7.2        £25.00    £663.92
7.4        £203.44    £1,463.42
7.6        £100.00    £1,633.46
7.8            £2,180.13
8        £28.44    £4,845.93
8.2            £3,510.05
8.4        £43.42    £5,586.40
8.6            £5,009.80
8.8        £66.00    £2,990.97
9        £93.59    £6,567.55
9.2        £10.00    £608.93
9.4            £555.26
9.6        £13.45    £480.87
9.8        £18.94    £291.13
10        £155.51    £1,234.62
10.5        £78.16    £32.27
11        £22.00    £1,428.82
11.5            £1,222.32
12        £3.00    £714.98
12.5            £452.20
13        £25.83    £505.54
13.5            £791.51
14        £10.00    £3,281.03
14.5            £2,055.69
15            £3,035.99
15.5        £31.75    £1,572.93
16        £10.00    £1,204.28
16.5        £12.80    £1,377.52
17        £33.60    £1,495.27
By:
wisewords
When: 10 May 24 00:02
this is funky
By:
Angela Rebecchi
When: 10 May 24 00:02
I got £500 matched at 20s Ukraine. If this is shenanigans and the market is clean, then that seems a generous price for one of the 2 biggest threats to Croatia
By:
wisewords
When: 10 May 24 00:02
will Israel be 1.9 or 85 by Saturday night?????
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