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mesmerised
17 Jul 23 01:10
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Date Joined: 10 Nov 10
| Topic/replies: 34,680 | Blogger: mesmerised's blog
Get what you can on Alcaraz, that's Australia, French, Wimbledon, Paris Olympics & US Open. I'm off to the bookies tomorrow to see what odds I can get.
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Report Emitdeb July 17, 2023 5:51 AM BST
LaughLaugh
Report n88uk July 17, 2023 11:28 AM BST
Can he even stay fit for all 5. Biggest concern with Alcaraz is he does pick up a lot of injuries. And Olympic years require you winning 4 of those events on 3 different surfaces, which next year will be even more difficult involving going from clay to grass back to clay, in the space of 3 months. That requires a superhuman effort whoever you are.
Report SamuelMertensBertens July 17, 2023 11:45 AM BST
I think he has a Grand Slam in him at some point, but in 2024 Novak will still be around and likely in the same shape as he is now, Rafa is looking to make one more run which could go either way (if his body heals up he will likely be dangerous), and the schedule will be very busy due to the Olympics.
Report n88uk July 17, 2023 11:52 AM BST
It looks that way right now, because when you think of who is meant to be stopping him in like 3-4 years time, there doesn't appear great competition. A lot of the mid-20s guys, Tsitsipas, Medvedev etc. match up horribly with Alcaraz, and it's hard to see how it gets better for them. So you're left with Rune and Sinner basically as the main competition.
Report n88uk July 17, 2023 11:58 AM BST
Tsitsipas and Medvedev feel the sort of guys that in 5 years Alcaraz will lead their H2H's like 15-2.
Report stu July 17, 2023 4:09 PM BST
Be interesting to know the odds at least.
Report Wesdag July 17, 2023 5:21 PM BST
I'd say he's evens to win each of the 5 right now therefore about 32s would be my guess.
Report Wesdag July 17, 2023 5:24 PM BST
or 2.5s = around 100-1
Report Journeyman July 17, 2023 11:00 PM BST
Musetti has the potential to steal a few from him and maybe on more surfaces than we were thinking before Wimbledon.

If Fils realises that you can't become a great by just Goating in France then he could be a threat. He has Carlos type self belief, maybe 18 months away from putting it all together in slams.
I'll mention LVA as well there to keep edy happy.
Report stu July 18, 2023 10:47 AM BST
Who is LVA?
Report stu July 18, 2023 10:53 AM BST
Oh, guessing that is Van Assche..?
Report SamuelMertensBertens July 18, 2023 1:58 PM BST
yes.
I don't see any threats from those younger at him for the foreseeable future.
Sinner will perhaps continue to cause him some trouble. Rune has the right attitude and is going in the right direction so if he keeps improving and gets better stamina, he might too. Musetti has a high peak level and if he can improve it he can steal some slams from Carlos. But he can easily turn into another Dimitrov. Novak and Rafa have already been mentioned, but won't be around for long. If Zverev gets his career back on track, maybe he has a shot. It's a real longshot, but if Thiem ever gets back to his peak maybe he can trouble him. Tsitipas and Medvedev I think will be career long doormats for Carlos. The biggest hurdle to keep racking up Slams could be motivation.
Report stu July 18, 2023 3:40 PM BST
Wonder what the spread on Carlos' career earnings total would be right now, given he's still only 20!
Report Wesdag July 18, 2023 6:18 PM BST
Thiem was the only player capable of mixing it with the very best.

Shame about his injury problems.
Report Journeyman July 18, 2023 11:47 PM BST
Bublik has had an eyecatching grass season and might now kick on into 2024. No Head to head to go on with carlos but has an idiosyncratic style and could be a late bloomer threat.
The Kazakhstan support system has already paid dividends with Rybakina.
Report SontaranStratagem July 19, 2023 2:10 AM BST
Novak will probably see this Olympics as his best chance to seal the lot ?

Loves clay and beat Alcaraz on it recently

2024 might be the last we see of Joker at his best which will be a sad day he's been very good punting wise pity he lost the other day but was gonna happen eventually at Wimbledon hes 37 nearly
Report johnnyrant July 19, 2023 8:45 AM BST
Top male players generally don't win the US Open in back to back years - last was Fed dominance 2004-2008. That's about the only stat not in Alcaraz favour. Likely him vs Novak in final at Flushing Meadow. Not much between them atm imho - I thought Djoko played below his best in Wimbledon final.
Would like to see books issue odds on how many singles Slams Alcaraz will win. He could definitely challenge Novak imho & end up with 25+ if he stays fit. He has no competition when Novak and Rafa retire whereas Novak has had to earn his GSs during peak Fed/Nadal/Murray era.
Report Wesdag July 19, 2023 3:45 PM BST
Novak got 3 years left in him imo.
Apart from Carlos, the others are mugs & bottlers.
Report Wesdag July 19, 2023 7:49 PM BST
I thought Djoko played below his best in Wimbledon final.

Absolutely.
The 2nd set tb was a standout with 3 unbelievably sloppy unforced errors into the net.
Report stu July 19, 2023 8:34 PM BST
It's a good point, I was wondering the same about his level in that final - but, doesn't he always have lapses, that's just him? Maybe what caught him out is that he can usually cope with giving his opponents the lapses, or sets even, just that this time he couldn't because he couldn't recover against Carlos who didn't give in when both players levels rose?

But, it is fine margins looking at play levels at this peak area of the sport, so there is an argument Djoko didn't quite reach it here.

Either way, while Carlos is still a young player there will be no Novak to bring into the question, which is fairly scary as a thought.
Report stu July 20, 2023 1:33 PM BST
JR and Wes - how would you bet roughly if they did meet again in the US final? (just a guess as could depend on earlier rounds etc) but presuming they both got to the final fairly comfortably...

I think I'd go something like 1.8 Carlos, 2.24 Novak...
Report johnnyrant July 20, 2023 2:08 PM BST
I guess you'd have to make Alcaraz marginal fav but Djoko will be hungrier than ever to win US Open given his recent record there of missing out on playing due to vaccine rules, losing a final vs Med when the weight of potential calendar Slam saw him play terrible and lose, and then the year he looked a shoe-in to win it only to be defaulted after hitting that line judge. We should be in for some epic battles in the next few Slams presuming they end up meeting in finals.
Report stu July 20, 2023 2:20 PM BST
Yep, this should be a mini goat rivalry period between the two of them, similar to the Rafa-Fed-Djok rivalry period, just shorter.
Report Wesdag July 20, 2023 2:54 PM BST
With similar paths to the final like Wimbledon then those odds look very fair imo.
Report brain dead jockeys July 20, 2023 10:30 PM BST
novak is 36 now.........federer and nadal were 36 when they won their last slam - fed 2018 aus open.........nadal 2022 french open.........someone has come along now and beaten him in his 2nd best slam. carlos was supposed to be a clay courter. it took rafa 3 attempts to down roger (then the greatest grass player ever) at wimbledon.......it has taken carlos one attempt.
he will feel he has his number.......carlos will only get better and novak will only get worse........i reckon 2 more slams max for novak. who knows, rafa might come back in 2024 and pinch one. carlos will dominate. the rest are mugs............dimitrov's nickname was baby fed.........thats funny........and tsitsipas said 3 years ago "i want to have worldwide appeal like federer".......well what can u say to that. keep trying kid........u only have to win 20 more slams.
Report pandora1963 July 20, 2023 10:38 PM BST
no chance, djoko played well below his best and still nearly won
Report Wesdag July 20, 2023 11:02 PM BST
IMO of course, Novak struggles in the wind & has done in the past.
If the roof had been closed - like for half his matches during the fortnight - he wins.

bdj - I reckon the point you make re Nadal v Fed @ Wimbers with Carlos v Novak is comparing apples with oranges.
Yes it took Nadal 3 attempts but on the 3rd attempt, Fed was only 26 as opposed to a 36 yr old Novak up against a 20 yr old world no.1.

As for record slams? Ridiculous for people to already saddle him with that task.
Report Angela Rebecchi July 20, 2023 11:44 PM BST
Sinner still has improvement in him, mentality wise. Then he can be dangerous at stopping Carlos. Rune too with improvement. But are we talking Wawrinka/Del Potro types who won't get him more than a few times opposed to go toe to toe !
Report Angela Rebecchi July 20, 2023 11:47 PM BST
It is cool to think we have Carlos as US Open winner favourite !
Report wisewords July 21, 2023 12:04 AM BST
I must be the only one who thinks Novak is going to win the US Open..
Report johnnyrant July 21, 2023 9:05 AM BST
I think Novak will win US Open. He's going to continue to make it to Slam finals this year & next imho. How many of those will he win? Hopefully at least 2 as I have a bet on him to win 25+ in his career.
Report Wesdag July 21, 2023 1:31 PM BST
Novak can play until he's 40 & win slams.
Other than Carlos, the opposition is p iss poor.
Report Journeyman July 21, 2023 9:09 PM BST
pandora1963 • July 20, 2023 10:38 PM BST
no chance, djoko played well below his best and still nearly won


A dime of sanity bouncing around in a crazed echo chamber
Report Wesdag July 22, 2023 12:52 AM BST
I've said the same.
The wind did for Novak being so unused to outdoor conditions over the fortnight.Wink
Report stu July 22, 2023 12:15 PM BST
It didn't help him for sure - just wish I'd realised that before the final in my betting though!
Report Journeyman July 29, 2023 5:28 PM BST
Watched Fils absolutely destroy a top 5 player in hamburg. Turning to the crowd demanding his flowers for the jawdropping stuff.
He's going to win three French Opens, a Wimbledon and maybe a hard court slam.

He might not be ready to win a slam in 2024 but remember it's not going to take slam winners to undo this Golden slam. Just players that overperform enough to beat Carlos on a given day.
Report edy July 30, 2023 10:37 PM BST
Ruud called the Hamburg centre court the wort clay court he had played on all year after his match against Baez.
Report edy July 30, 2023 10:38 PM BST
or during that match rather.
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