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mesmerised
28 May 23 00:43
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Date Joined: 10 Nov 10
| Topic/replies: 34,680 | Blogger: mesmerised's blog
Outright Predictions

    1/4 WINNERS        ODDS        ALT / VALUE        ODDS        1/4 WINNERS        ODDS        ALT / VALUE        ODDS   
    TSITSIPAS        5        KORDA        34        SWIATEK        1.5        GAUFF        8   
    DJOKOVIC        1.62        WAWRINKA        29        JABUER        6        NOSKOVA        23   
    RUNE        2.25        PAUL        29        BENCIC        8.5        MERTENS        21   
    MEDVEDEV        2.62        CORIC        15        SABALENKA        2.9        GARCIA        11   

                                                               
    REACH FINAL        ODDS        ALT / VALUE        ODDS        REACH  FINAL        ODDS        ALT / VALUE        ODDS   
    DJOKOVIC        2.63        CERUNDOLO        81        JABUER        19        HADDAD MAIA        51   
    MEDVEDEV        4.33        CORIC        81        BENCIC        19        ZHENG        19   

                                                               
    FINALISTS        ODDS        ALT / VALUE        ODDS        FINALISTS        ODDS        ALT / VALUE        ODDS   
    DJOK/MEDVEDEV        13        DJOK/ ZVEREV        36        BENCIC / JABEUR        201        JABEUR & OSTY        201   

                                                               
    WINNER        ODDS        ALT / VALUE        ODDS        WINNER        ODDS        ALT / VALUE        ODDS   
    DJOKOVIC        3.5        ZVEREV        36        BENCIC        101        OSTAPENKO        26   


Australian Open predictions finished with + 4.83pts with level stakes.


tennisdrawchallenge

    ROUND 1 ATP        COR.        INC.        DRAW POS.        ROUND 1 WTA        COR.        INC.        DRAW POS.   
    FRENCH OPEN 2022        43        21        298 / 1765        FRENCH OPEN 2022        45        19        909 / 1078   
    WIMBLEDON 2022        46        18        829 / 2158        WIMBLEDON 2022        45        19        745 / 1255   
    US OPEN 2022        43        21        1177 / 1939        US OPEN 2022        40        24        411 / 1155   
    AUS OPEN 2023        47        17        818 / 2312        AUS OPEN 2023        47        17        1 / 1384 Cool   


Round 1 Predictions for French Open 2023 are in the 2nd post with the odds, 47 out of 64 current best


kind Regards.
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Report mesmerised May 28, 2023 12:47 AM BST
    ROUND 1 ATP        ODDS        ROUND 1 WTA        ODDS   
    Alcaraz        1.02        Swiatek        1.01   
    O'Connell        1.58        In-Albon        2.25   
    Galan        2.58        Ferro        2.27   
    Shapovalov        1.79        Bouzkova        1.29   
    Musetti        1.21        Azarenka        1.51   
    Shevchenko        1.4        Navarro        2.19   
    Pouille        1.7        Davis        1.37   
    Norrie        1.16        Krejcikova        1.33   
    Auger Aliassime        1.34        Kudermetova        1.1   
    Diaz Acosta        1.67        Bolsova        1.33   
    Ofner        1.4        Mladenovic        4.38   
    Korda        1.49        Keys        1.21   
    Zapata Miralles        1.64        Kalinina        1.31   
    Isner        2.91        Andreeva        1.08   
    Carballes Baena        1.67        Grabher        2.35   
    Tsitsipas        1.02        Gauff        1.23   
    Djokovic        1.02        Rybakina        1.09   
    Fucsovics        1.21        Noskova        1.78   
    Cecchinato        2.01        Sorribes Tormo        1.39   
    Fils        3.59        Martic        1.68   
    Bautista Agut        1.42        Alexandrova        1.3   
    Varillas        1.55        Friedsam        1.58   
    Martinez        1.79        Shnaider        1.51   
    Goffin        2.76        Haddad Maia        1.25   
    Khachanov        1.02        Kvitova        1.8   
    Kypson        3.02        Waltert        2.08   
    Wawrinka        1.36        Pera        1.88   
    Kokkinakis        2.05        Vekic        1.53   
    Sonego        1.41        Cirstea        1.35   
    Humbert        1.25        Danilovic        1.22   
    Moutet        1.85        Janicijevic         2.37   
    Rublev        1.24        Jabeur        1.19   
    Rune        1.03        Muchova        1.92   
    Monfils        4.72        Podoroska        1.71   
    Olivieri        1.74        Teichmann        1.35   
    Vavassori        2.74        Begu        1.34   
    Cerundolo        1.33        Linette        1.95   
    Monteiro        1.45        Tauson        1.71   
    Gasquet        1.71        Jeanjean        2.01   
    Fritz        1.02        Bencic        1.11   
    Paul        1.37        Samsonova        1.29   
    Jarry        1.28        Pavlyuchenkova        1.33   
    Giron        2.27        Sherif        1.26   
    Struff        1.6        Potapova        1.46   
    Van de Zandschulp        1.2        Mertens        1.1   
    Zhang        2.58        Bogdan        1.76   
    Bublik        2.15        Cornet        2.72   
    Ruud        1.06        Pegula        1.73   
    Sinner        1.03        Garcia        1.39   
    Huesler        2.95        Bonaventure        2.76   
    Ruusuvuori        1.46        Hunter        2   
    Dimitrov        1.09        Svitolina        1.91   
    Zverev        1.05        Ostapenko        1.14   
    Gaston        2.63        Stearns        1.44   
    Karatsev        1.65        Vondrousova        1.07   
    Krajinovic        3.72        Kasatkina        1.31   
    Coric        1.13        Stephens        2.15   
    Thiem        1.79        Gracheva        1.34   
    Etcheverry        1.75        Putintseva        1.48   
    De Minaur        1.3        Zheng        1.23   
    Nishioka        1.97        Frech        1.28   
    Purcell        2.08        Bejlek        2.02   
    Halys        1.64        Shymanovic        1.43   
    Medvedev        1.06        Sabalenka        1.15   
Report mesmerised May 28, 2023 12:49 AM BST
as you can tell, this is the ABS thread (Anyone But Swiatek) Plain
Report Journeyman May 28, 2023 10:34 AM BST
Excellent tables Mes. Hope you have another good run in the tennis draw challenge.

Men's outright

Medvedev 12/5
Tsitsipas 21
H.Rune 14
Rublev 60

Carlos is the rightful favourite but does his slam count justify that price at the start of a fortnight.
Tsitsipas is my least favourite player of the big names but I think he has a live shot here/

Long shot is Arthur Fils at 600s.

Winning in Lyon and having to play his first round here almost immediately isn't ideal but he's young, brimming with swagger and belief and the week in Lyon may not have taken too much out of him with two walkovers and only one three set tussle. The crowd support spooked Cerundolo and meeting Novak early he has to have a chance. I'm a huge Novak fan but I think that all important 23rd slam comes in SW19 or New York.

Q.Zheng 75 (Nap)
O.Jabeur 40
B.Bencic 100
S.Cirstea 100

Zheng is going to make her move soon and she looked sharp against a Kudermetova who played out of her skin.
Jabeur reversing this year's Charleston result against Bencic might be the cue for her to win.
Bencic having an extremely consistent year, stopped working with Tursonov last month and that's the only reason I don't make her my main pick.
I know you can't put up the Romanian Warrior princess but she's having a great year, famously taking down Garcia in both of the Sunshine double tournaments going deep in both. Hopefully she can start firing on clay.

Long shot is Diane Parry at 1000s.

Parry having had a grim series of results on the main tour didn't sulk but rolled up her sleeves and got down and dirty in May to reach a W15 SF and win a 125 taking down Noskova and Gracheva in straight sets. Her game has started to click. The French crowd hot off Fils' heroics in Lyon are going to be in the mood to roar on home prospects. This I think along with that little extra main tour experience will help her past the obvious first week challenge of Mirra in Round 2. Mirra is obviously the real deal but I'm not sure she's ready to go deep in this slam. I like Parry a lot and the scooby sense says she could have a shock run to the second week at least.
Report mesmerised May 28, 2023 12:23 PM BST
good write up as always JM, I'd like to see Novak win his 3rd French, it's this year or it's never year, without Nadal and now 36, it's his last chance for a last Roland Garros, having said that I don't know if his last 3 clay defeats relatively early are red flags or a matter of conserving energy for this event. I don't see any decline in his movement however.

Picked Zheng to win her quarter in Aus and to make the final but she retired against Kvitova, can't even remember why, may have been a leg injury, can't see her getting past Sabalenka atm but she also seems to suffer from worse menstrual cramps than others as she did last year at the French against Iga, legitimate cause for concern imo though I've still been on the Zheng bandwagon for a while. Bencic has a really good draw and should at least make the quarters, she does have a poor record here for some reason but so did Pavs and Safarova before they made their finals out of nowhere.

I gave Jabba the Hutt the big build up at the French last season and picked her to win the French, fell over the first hurdle, then of course made the final at Wimbledon, was reluctant to go to the same well again but at least neither she or Belinda have the pressure of a ton of points to defend here. Incidentally Linette who knocked her out in 22 suffered from IJBABP syndrome and promptly lost her next match to Trevisan. Would not be shocked if SoranaGoat KO's her, this year feels like an Indian Summer, where she knows the best of the years have gone by and now no longer frets so is just enjoying the time she has left at 33.

If I were to have 1 wild outside punt it'd be Sorribes Tormo @ 500/1.

Iga will probably win realistically, but too much of a boring pickGrin
Report SamuelMertensBertens May 28, 2023 3:11 PM BST
Lots of wear and tear on Zheng in Australia because she had played a lot in a short amount of days going into AO. Shouldn't be an issue here.
Report mesmerised May 30, 2023 11:36 AM BST
good call with Parry, didn't see her beating Kalinina

2nd year in a row my women's winners has bombed in the first round, she plays well on grass so maybe like Jabeur last year she might make the Wimbledon final straight after insteadPlain
Report wisewords May 30, 2023 1:05 PM BST
maybe if she can stay injury free. that's very important for BeBe's success
Report Journeyman May 30, 2023 1:05 PM BST
The last time Parry was seen as the hot ticket in town was when she won a W125 two years ago (montevideo) so she's effectively rturned back the clock so to speak.
Kalinina losing together with Kudermetova's underwhelming car crash means an Italian open finalist and also a semi finalist out in the first two days.

Bencic is a mystery. She could end her career as comfortably the best player to never reach a slam final. As you pointed out her RG record is poor but her all round game should be competitive here.
What does Tursonov have to do to hold onto a regular coaching gig though!

We probably deserve penance for wilfully ignoring the so called WTA big 3. The only one that is slight value is Rybakina ( the Ivan Drago of the WTA Grin ) but are they really a big 3? The real big 3 have won 64 slams , these three players have won 5 between them. Not quite the same. Also it wasn't long since it was taken as a given that Barty and Osaka would dominate for years.
My hunch is the top of the WTA tree is still forming and there will some chamges and overthrowing before real stability arrives.
Report Journeyman May 30, 2023 1:21 PM BST
Ons up and running though to save the day. Ons jabeur is Box Office!
Report SamuelMertensBertens May 30, 2023 1:47 PM BST
Re big 3. Everything is relative. Between them they have won pretty much everything in the past 12 months, and are far above the rest of the pack so I think it's fair enough to call them that. But they are more the big 3 for now, unlike the Big 4 who will always be THE Big 4 and if there's another four playerss on the men's side above the rest of the pack they will at best be known as "the new big 4".
Report mesmerised May 31, 2023 2:00 AM BST
ROUND 1 RESULTS

ATP - WON 42, LOST 21 = +1.85pts
Monterio v Bonzi cancelled

WTA - WON 45, LOST 17 = +4.24pts
McNally v Bogdan and Kalinskaya v Navarro cancelled

TOTAL - +6.27pts

Report mesmerised May 31, 2023 2:02 AM BST
Round 2 predictions

Report mesmerised May 31, 2023 2:05 AM BST
Htf did Medvedev lose today, both my draw challenges up in smoke, oh well.
Report Journeyman May 31, 2023 7:46 PM BST
Well it's hard to put a case against the three of them when the rest of the womens' draw has collapsed by Wednesday of the first week.

Zheng was pretty terrible. I didn't pick Linda N because her form has been so rough but if she somehow get her return working and find a way past Rybakina then she's got the weapons to have a say.
Quite surprised by Osty. I thought Mes's 200-1 Osty/Ons value final had something about it.

Medvedev aside the men are holding up for now.
Report mesmerised June 1, 2023 10:29 PM BST
Round 2 Results



____________

ROUND 2 RESULTS

ATP - WON 22, LOST 10 = +0.17pts
Monfils v Rune cancelled

WTA - WON 22, LOST 11 = +5.61pts

TOTAL = WON 44, LOST 21

= +5.78pts
__________________________

TOTAL TOTALS

ATP - WON 64, LOST 32 = +2.02pts

WTA - WON 67, LOST 28 = +9.85pts

TOTAL P/L = 11.87pts
Report mesmerised June 1, 2023 10:56 PM BST


women's matches very hard to come down on either side this round, it's feast or famine.
Report mesmerised June 2, 2023 2:12 PM BST
left 2 matches out

Fritz  @ 1.72
Stephens @ 1.55
Report mesmerised June 3, 2023 11:07 AM BST
If I were to have 1 wild outside punt it'd be Sorribes Tormo @ 500/1.


is it happening ?
Report Journeyman June 3, 2023 11:10 AM BST
The most abject humiliation I think I've see in a slam was when she was destroyed by Emma in 2021.
so RG champion would be quite a turnaround!
Report mesmerised June 3, 2023 11:50 PM BST
Round 3 results

+6.94pts



_________________________________________

ROUND 3 RESULTS

ATP - WON 11, LOST 5 = -0.04pts

WTA - WON 12, LOST 3 = +6.94pts
Rybakina v Sorribes Tormo cancelled

TOTAL = WON 23, LOST 8

= +6.9pts

__________________________________________

ROUND 2

ATP - WON 22, LOST 10 = +0.17pts

WTA - WON 22, LOST 11 = +5.61pts

TOTAL = WON 44, LOST 21

= +5.78pts
_____________________________________

ROUND 1

ATP - WON 42, LOST 21 = +1.85pts

WTA - WON 45, LOST 17 = +4.24pts

TOTAL - WON 87, LOST 38

= +6.09pts

__________________________________________


TOTAL TOTALS

ATP - WON 75, LOST 36 = +1.98pts

WTA - WON 79, LOST 31 = +16.79pts



TOTAL P/L = +18.77pts
Report mesmerised June 4, 2023 12:00 AM BST
ROUND 4 PREDICTIONS


Report Journeyman June 5, 2023 8:34 PM BST
I really want Ons to do this now. She has had her iffy match against Olga, looking zoned out at times and somehow came through. She brings so much value to the tour, just racks up the 'how did she do that' shotmaking.
If Sabalenka is getting called a superstar then surely Ons deserves a slam. She's Box Office. (Your OP picks benefit more from Haddad Maia making the final of course.)
Report mesmerised June 5, 2023 10:28 PM BST
Round 4 Results = -2.07pts




____________________________________________

ROUND 4 RESULTS


ATP - WON 7, LOST 1 = +1.27pts

WTA - WON 3, LOST 4 = -3.34
Swiatek v Tsurenko voided, 1 set rule

TOTAL = WON 10, LOST 5

= -2.07ts
_______________________________________________


ROUND 3 RESULTS

ATP - WON 11, LOST 5 = -0.04pts

WTA - WON 12, LOST 3 = +6.94pts
Rybakina v Sorribes Tormo cancelled

TOTAL = WON 23, LOST 8

= +6.9pts

__________________________________________

ROUND 2

ATP - WON 22, LOST 10 = +0.17pts

WTA - WON 22, LOST 11 = +5.61pts

TOTAL = WON 44, LOST 21

= +5.78pts
_____________________________________

ROUND 1

ATP - WON 42, LOST 21 = +1.85pts

WTA - WON 45, LOST 17 = +4.24pts

TOTAL - WON 87, LOST 38

= +6.09pts

__________________________________________


TOTAL TOTALS

ATP - WON 82, LOST 37 = +3.25pts

WTA - WON 82, LOST 35 = +13.45pts

TOTAL - WON 164, LOST 72 = 69.5%

TOTAL P/L = +16.7pts



It was probably going too well for the women, though tbh I deviated away from actually picking players who I thought would win to being blinded by value, Alcaraz and Saba should have been the picks, couldn't have been any closer with Sorribes Tormo, that's the longest match I've ever seen in WTA, don't know if there's been longer but I wasn't watching if there was, or maybe I was and can't remember.

@jm, I want Jabeur to win as well, incidentally I'm somehow 14th in tennisdrachallenge from 1003 brackets, though I've no winners pick with Belinda out so will drop like a bomb in Swiatek makes the final. 140th in ATP from 1662 brackets but would need Novak to win for a top 20 finish or so, Med as my other finalist is out.

I think Haddad Maia is going to be spent and will be easy pickings for Ons after her marathon match.

With only 13 matches left, the thread from these daily selections has actually already finished in profitCool With the outright selections, realistically needs a Novak/Zverev final, ironically it's probably more difficult for Djokovic to get there than Zverev with Alcaraz in his way.
Report mesmerised June 5, 2023 10:41 PM BST
Quarter Finals




I have also realised some of my daily picks have conflicted with my pre draw picks, funny how you see things different as you watch the tournament progress, I picked Ruud to beat Rune at this stage before it started, having watched their matches, I now give Rune the edge, but should be very close as odds suggest.
Report mesmerised June 7, 2023 11:50 PM BST


TOTAL TOTALS

ATP - WON 85, LOST 38 = +2.98pts

WTA - WON 85, LOST 36 = +13.54pts

TOTAL - WON 170, LOST 74 = 69.7%

TOTAL P/L = +16.52pts
Report mesmerised June 7, 2023 11:59 PM BST


There are 24 selections in the Opening post, a Zverev/Novak final or Beatriz making the final would mean it'll finish in the green along with my daily picks, I'd be gobsmacked if Haddad Maia pulls it off, Novak/Zverev much more realistic. Kind Regards.
Report SamuelMertensBertens June 8, 2023 2:04 PM BST
Iga against Gauff should be 1.08, no?
Report mesmerised June 8, 2023 6:43 PM BST
yes good spot, don't know what happened there, maybe the 2 is above the 0 on my keyboard, fat fingers.
Report wisewords June 8, 2023 7:30 PM BST
chubby fingers
Report mesmerised June 9, 2023 10:12 PM BST
Semi final results = -0.27pts





TOTAL TOTALS

ATP - WON 85, LOST 38 = +3.65pts

WTA - WON 85, LOST 36 = +12.4pts

TOTAL - WON 172, LOST 76 = 69.4%

TOTAL P/L = +16.05pts
Report mesmerised June 9, 2023 10:30 PM BST


pretty boring end, two nailed on winners at short odds, Iga desperate to become the female Nadal of clay, I hadn't even considered Muchova to make this final before it started, then again I don't many people did.

Assuming Djokovic wins, then Outright predictions would finish on -11.85, so overall profit for the thread.
Very close with Haddad Maia landing a 50/1 shot if she'd have made the final, Zverev/Novak final would have been 35/1 but he was hammered in the semi. Kind Regards.
Report mesmerised June 9, 2023 10:32 PM BST


pretty boring end, two nailed on winners at short odds, Iga desperate to become the female Nadal of clay, I hadn't even considered Muchova to make this final before it started, then again I don't many people did.

Assuming Djokovic wins, then Outright predictions would finish on -11.85, so overall profit for the thread.
Very close with Haddad Maia landing a 50/1 shot if she'd have made the final, Zverev/Novak final would have been 35/1 but he was hammered in the semi. Kind Regards.
Report mesmerised June 9, 2023 10:32 PM BST
ffs my image is not showing for whatever dumb reason

Novak @ 1.22
Iga @ 1.14
Report mesmerised June 11, 2023 6:03 PM BST
Final results



TOTAL TOTALS

ATP - WON 86, LOST 38 = +3.87pts (69.3%)

WTA - WON 86, LOST 36 = +12.54pts (70.5%)

TOTAL - WON 174, LOST 76 = 69.6%

TOTAL P/L = +16.41pts

Outright predictions = -11.85pts

Overall +4.56pts

don't think I've looked at backing every single match before, wouldn't have guessed that would be profitable.

tennis drawchallenge not fully updated yet


Kind Regards.
Report wisewords June 11, 2023 6:59 PM BST
you did really well, but I think you should limit the amount of outright bets you make to increase overall profitability
Report mesmerised June 11, 2023 11:10 PM BST
all they are is fun punts, I'm trading the outright and match markets, posting predictions just passes the time and gives an added interest.

tennisdrawchallenge results are in

ATP - 67th / 1662
WTA - 303 / 1003

best ATP performance at the slams, obviously can't top my 1st place in Australia though in the women's.

Kind Regards.
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