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mesmerised
15 Jan 23 18:48
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Date Joined: 10 Nov 10
| Topic/replies: 7,415 | Blogger: mesmerised's blog
ATP

Quarter winners
Medvedev @ 2.5.........value pick Tiafoe @ 15
Tsitsipas @ 3.5........... value pick Norrie @ 8
Djokovic @ 1.4............value pick Rublev @ 17
Berrettini @ 7..............value pick Schwartzmann @ 67

Finalists
Djokovic and Medvedev @ 5.5..........value pick Djokovic and Tiafoe @ 51

Winner
Djokovic @ 1.83........value pick Tsitsipas @ 17

.....

WTA

Quarter winners
Q. Zheng @ 13......... value pick Yastremska @ 101
Azarenka @ 11........ value pick Kostyuk @ 21
Pliskova @ 11............value pick Cirstea @ 31
Sabalenka @ 3.1........value pick Fruhvirtova @ 41

Finalists
Sabalenka and Zheng @ 151..........value pick Zheng and Garcia @ 201

Winner
Sabalenka @ 8........value pick Linda Fruhvirtova @ 250/1
.....

tennisdrawchallenge
French open 22 - ATP 43 correct Round 1 picks ATP (21 incrorrect).......WTA: 45 correct Round 1 picks (19 incorrect)
Wimbledon 22 ATP - 46 correct Round 1 picks ATP (18 incorrect)........WTA 45 correct Round 1 picks (19 incorrect)
US Open 22 ATP - 43 correct Round 1 picks ATP (21 incorrect).......WTA 40 correct Round 1 picks (24 incorrect)

46 the benchmark.

Kind Regards.
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Report wisewords January 15, 2023 7:15 PM GMT
Kind Regards!
Report formoftheace January 15, 2023 8:03 PM GMT
Rad the one hit wonder will be home early….
Report wisewords January 15, 2023 8:16 PM GMT
has Madison got the keys to Melbourne?
Report Journeyman January 15, 2023 8:43 PM GMT
Welcome back from Soccerball if only for a couple of weeks. Happy
You'll fall off your seat with shock when you see my main mens pick.

ATP
Tournament winner
Alex de Minaur to win Australian open @ 150
Alex de minaur to reach final @ 55

No point backing him to win his quarter, he's in the quarter of death with Novak and Kyrgios
BUT if he gets past these two he's ready to win his home slam

Alternative winners

Felix Auger Aliassime
Outright @ 30, to reach final @ 9, quarter winner @ 4
Casper Ruud @ 42 has some nice early rounds to get his late 2022 form up to speed.

Of the six players at the top of the draw I think Novak Djokovic is the likeliest winner
and I'd be happy to see that. 1.98 is hard to be excited about with 2 weeks to go but he is the likeliest winner.


WTA

Tournament winner
Jessica Pegula @ 12.5 (nb) This is your Australian open winner ladies and gents

Alternative tournament winners
Madison Keys @ 36
Leylah Fernandez @ 100

Quarter winners
Coco Gauff (quarter 1) @ 4.7
Leylah Fernandez (quarter 3) @ 12

Iga Switek crash and burn specials
Swiatek stage of Elimination - third round @ 8 (NAP)
(To not win) quarter, lay @ 2.2
(To not reach) final, lay @ 3.45

Long shots
Eva Lys @ 1000
Sara Bejlek @ 1000

I agree that whoever wins the Pliskova/Cirstea 2nd round match has a great chance to win that quarter
but I can't go against Leylah and I don't want to jinx your Romanian Warrior Princess value pick.
Report mesmerised January 15, 2023 10:19 PM GMT
but I can't go against Leylah and I don't want to jinx your Romanian Warrior Princess value pick.
Grin

solid wta picks JM, anyone else free to post there's.

I seem to have been backing Felix every slam but have given him a break as he keeps letting me down, so this could be the one where he wins as that's how it normally works out, I was 50/50 with Pegula/Azarenka for quarter winner, also never back Keys to win as it'll jinx my future slam winner pick, though Kiki has killed that anyway. I've surprised myself having Sabalenka as the winner but as I was filling out my draw, that's just the way it fell, good luck anyway.
Report Journeyman January 17, 2023 1:40 PM GMT
As usual not too many wanting to put their gonads on the block! Grin
To kick some life into this thread, I suggest 
1 allow late entry picks until first ball of 2nd round
2 collate any clear outright picks that get posted in the megathread
(Mes obviously has veto on this) 

RMB unlikely to post in here as I'm not sure how much he ventures outside the megathreads.
He tipped up his WTA tournamnt winner last night so hopefully he won't mind me adding that in here.

Coco can win outright if Iga continues to not be at her best, this is how I have seen it, coco time !! coco champion of them all !!!


Current price @ 14
Report mesmerised January 17, 2023 2:31 PM GMT
yeah anyone can post predictions here, mi casa en su casa etc.

Cannot believe Berrettini lost, I had him reaching the Semi's in my draw, hope Murray doesn't let it go to waste, he should beat the Kokk and RBA, Ruud for my money is the most bang average finalist I can ever remember but he keeps getting results, he'd be in round 4, so in theory a Quarter final against Zverev may be the limit but that's just based on the lazy assumption his body wont hold up, who knows how he actually feels. A shame Emma gets the short straw with Guaff next.

38 correct round 1 picks wta with 11 to play,
37 correct round 1 picks atp with 10 to play
Report mesmerised January 18, 2023 4:05 PM GMT
update

WTA- 47 correct round 1 picks, 17 lost.
ATP -47 correct round 1 picks, 17 lost.

better than last year already

2 quarter picks out, Zheng and Berrettini
2 quarter value picks out, Yastremska and Sorana
finalist Zheng out
Report Journeyman January 18, 2023 4:18 PM GMT
All my picks are live except the 1000-1 long shots.

Felix has come back twice well but his court time for two rounds is a bit of a worry.
My Swiatek third round elimination Nap was based on her meeting Marie, Andreescu or Lys but Bucsa is playing well so we shall see.

Your value quarter winner Kostyuk is looking the best I've ever seen her look.
Basically she looks the player everyone thought she would be when she shocked Emma a year ago (before she became a political mouthpiece).
Report Journeyman January 18, 2023 4:47 PM GMT
I thought the only way she could get into top form would be by reigning in the media profile a bit but she hasn't.
She's highlighted Sabalenka's week preparing in Russia, and she's reiterated she won't shake hands with Russians that don't expressly condemn the war.

Yet she seems to now be able to compartmentalize so that she can play good tennis.
She can probably carve through everyone in her quarter except Pegula.
Report mesmerised January 18, 2023 5:44 PM GMT
not sure why she doesn't understand that by asking Russian's to condemn the war they would be putting themselves and their families in danger
Report Journeyman January 18, 2023 6:01 PM GMT
She actually clarified her view in her interview with Reuters two days ago.

I haven't changed about the war and everything that's going on, on tour, / Because people who just say they don't want war, it makes us (Ukraine) sound like we want war.
Obviously we don't want the war, too. Whoever speaks out clearly I believe has every right to be on tour but whoever doesn't ... I don't think it's (just) humane
Report brain dead jockeys January 20, 2023 9:34 AM GMT
novak out to 2.88. think it was 2020 when novak was playing with an injury. cant remember exactly what it was.......but he still won the tournament.
Report Journeyman January 22, 2023 3:15 AM GMT
Iga Switek crash and burn specials
Swiatek stage of Elimination - third round @ 8 (NAP)
(To not win) quarter, lay @ 2.2
(To not reach) final, lay @ 3.45


Boom. Fourth round instead of third.
But 2 out of 3 landed.

Rybakina seemingly willing to make the effort to be a slam Goat twice a year.
Report wisewords January 22, 2023 3:20 AM GMT
good job Jm!
Report Journeyman January 22, 2023 3:22 AM GMT
Nobody picked out Vekic. Dark horse making steady progress out of the spotlight.

She'll be a good way to assess where Fruhvirtova is. But if Linda wins that I'd fancy you to land your 40-1 value pick.
Report Journeyman January 22, 2023 3:23 AM GMT
Cheers Wise Happy
Report SamuelMertensBertens January 22, 2023 8:00 AM GMT
ATP
Tournament winner
Alex de Minaur to win Australian open @ 150
Alex de minaur to reach final @ 55

No point backing him to win his quarter, he's in the quarter of death with Novak and Kyrgios
BUT if he gets past these two he's ready to win his home slam


Alex immune to IJBABPS? Grin
Report Journeyman January 22, 2023 12:11 PM GMT
At the very least Alex will seriously work Novak and expose if he's injured or telling Fairy Stories (again).
Kyrgios pulling out has given him a crack at this though. Playing Novak and NK across two rounds would have been a tough ask.
Report mesmerised January 22, 2023 12:31 PM GMT
Had Swiatek going out in the next round to Zheng but either way did not feel like this was her slam, have 5 of 8 quarter picks still standing but only 1 value pick, all in on Fruhvirtova who's up against n88's 2014 future slam winner pick. It was fitting the French and US Open winner played off against the Wimbledon winner in the Australian open.
Report SamuelMertensBertens January 22, 2023 2:27 PM GMT
Journeyman • January 22, 2023 12:11 PM GMT
At the very least Alex will seriously work Novak and expose if he's injured or telling Fairy Stories (again).

I'll be cheering for him. His flop last year against Fabio (big match, big opportunity, couldn't handle the occasion), is a concern but hopefully he has learned and doesn't give a similar showing tomorrow.
Report Journeyman January 23, 2023 11:41 AM GMT
Down goes my mens pick. That was just a battering. Does Novak really need to open his legacy to criticism for faking injuries when he can produce like that.
I saw some saying theorising pounding the home favourite was a kind of revenge on Australia for last year. Novak certainly seemed motivated to ctush Alex.

Hopefully my womens' pick Pegula carries on what has been a convincing run of matches. Vekic the dark horse impressed me last night against a fearsome young prospect.
She could have easily been overwhelmed when Linda got firing. I suspect we may be heading for a Pegula vs Vekic final.

Mes loses his value pick but has three out of four of his WTA quarter picks standing. Pliskova has played well justifying her surprising coaching changes.
Report mesmerised January 23, 2023 6:06 PM GMT
this is all coming down to a Djokovic v Tsitsipas and Sabalenka v Rybakina final imo

Also, I have an outside chance of winning WTA tennisdrawchallenge, usually on standings you scroll down to the bottom of the top 20 to see what position your team is, mine wasn't there, that's because it was in the top 20 lol, currently sitting in 9th position out of 1384 brackets, there are 3 players above me with a live finalist, annoying one of them is Sabalenka, would need the differential Azarenka to knock out Pegula, tall order as Peculiar Pegula is heavy fav, Pliskova beating Linette would help as well. A top 5 finish is possible though. ATP bracket fairly useless, 1477th out of 2312 with only Novak and Tstsipas left.
Report brain dead jockeys January 23, 2023 10:02 PM GMT
novak will win his 22nd slam on sunday. its all over.
Report mesmerised January 24, 2023 12:02 PM GMT
Azarenka obliges, need Pliskova and Rublev to smash the ball out of the park, realistically with level stakes possible small profit if KaPlis wins, surprised at the demolition of Peculiar Pegula however. Should have considered Rybakina more, to focused on how Zheng was going to dominate world tennis. Classic tunnel vision.
Report mesmerised January 24, 2023 1:17 PM GMT
Now up to 4th in the WTA tennisdrawchallenge from 1,384 brackets, two above me have Rybakina as winner, 1 has Pegula.

Sabalenka has to win the tournament basically for my draw to win.
Report Journeyman January 24, 2023 1:18 PM GMT
I wouldn't have picked Vika to beat Jess in straight sets pre SF in a million years so good call on Azarenka who lands your Quarter 2 pick.
Your radar is obviously aligned.

I should have stuck with Pliskova who I put up at the US Open. I still think Friedl desreves the credit for sorting out her attitude.
Donna the dark horse  to win outright (currently at 19.5) or Kaplis as a backup (currently 14).
I can't be having Sabalenka at 3.35 with no evidence she can get past an SF without imploding and three tough matches still to play. Joke price.
At least the one visit Kazahkstani has a slam on her CV to justify being that short.
Report mesmerised January 24, 2023 1:23 PM GMT
I never traditionally back Sabalenka either, I'd have to look back on my draws but I don't remember picking her to reach a semi before let alone win it but for reason when filling out the draw it fell that way, agree he price is too short. Looking to beat my second place ATP Rome finish of 2nd place out of 687 brackets
Report mesmerised January 24, 2023 1:24 PM GMT
Rybakina from all the matches I've watch so far looks like she's going to win the Australian open
Report Journeyman January 24, 2023 1:37 PM GMT
^

I looked up that site and got a bit confused by the wording in the prize section.
I thought it said you were playing for a first prize of a hundred pounds worth of hot dogs Laugh
Report mesmerised January 24, 2023 2:49 PM GMT
just looked up prizes and also thought wtf is a deflated hot dog as a prize let alone 100 of themLaugh
Report Journeyman January 25, 2023 1:45 PM GMT
It doesn't really matter that Magda Linette hasn't been mentioned on the thread once, she's backable at 16.5 on the basis Vika is the right price and the other two too short.
She at least has the fire of destiny in her eyes which may be utterly delusional but it's getting results.

Sabalenka's match scorelines look fearsome on paper but don't tell the story of players not taking chances against her.
The scooby sense still says that if she gets taken to a third set her game will hit the floor faster than Camila Giorgi hiding from a Sky News reporter.
Report Journeyman January 25, 2023 2:03 PM GMT
I'm still taken aback by Pegula crashing out though. Everything was aligning, her form coming in was exectly where you'd want it to be.
Just a strange strange result and a big chance missed I think.
Report brain dead jockeys January 25, 2023 9:46 PM GMT
sabalenka is not a player for the mortgage. she doesnt look very mobile sometimes and goes thru repetitive unforced errors.
Report mesmerised January 26, 2023 4:16 PM GMT
just about in with a chance to win tennisdrawchallenge with 1 match remaining, all hinges on Sabalenka for that and the predictions below, though Ryba has looked very good Saba is actually favourite, not sure about that. Currently 6th in the table, you get 20 points for a final win, I'm 18 points behind, the 5 players in front of me all have Rybakina as winner, so the winner will either be the guy currently in first or me, looking forward to 100 deflated hot dogs, or just being deflated. In the end predicted 4 out of 8 quarter final predictions. Running at -2pts for level stakes on all settled outcomes, either Saba or Stefanos I just want to sit of an old fishing boat on the med pondering life as the sun sets Tsitsipas winning would see the thread end in profit.

thread predictions
winners
Djokovic @ 1.4
Tsitsipas @ 3.5
Sabalenka @ 3.1
Azarenka @ 11

+15pts

losers
Medvedev @ 2.5
Tiafoe @ 15
Norrie @ 8
Rublev @ 17
Berrettini @ 7
Schwartzmann @ 67
Djokovic and Tiafoe @ 51
Djokovic and Medvedev @ 5.5.
Q. Zheng @ 13
Yastremska @ 101
Kostyuk @ 21
Pliskova @ 11
Cirstea @ 31
Fruhvirtova @ 41
Sabalenka and Zheng @ 151
Zheng and Garcia @ 201
Fruhvirtova @ 250/1

-17pts


to be decided
winner Djokovic @ 1.83
value pick winner Tsitsipas @ 17
winner Sabalenka @ 8
Report wisewords January 27, 2023 5:35 AM GMT
best of luck!
Report Journeyman January 27, 2023 6:36 PM GMT
Yeah best of luck Mes. If Saba needed extra motivation she knows she can bring those hot dogs home for you. In fact get the rolls, mustard and onions ready beside the pool.
Report brain dead jockeys January 28, 2023 1:40 AM GMT
5.0 looks too big to me. thought tsitsipas would be 3.7 ish. the gulf in class between novak and tommy paul was unreal. mens tennis really needs carlos alcaraz to have a good year. it would be good too if someone like tsitsipas could step up. he has a chance on sunday.
considering the 2020 wimbledon was cancelled and novak missed a USO and AUS open due to the vaccine it will be some achievement if novak wins on sunday. number 22 should really be number 24. he is clearly the greatest of all time. but will have to get the job done on sunday to officially be the GOAT.........he has a better mix of slams than rafa.
Report Journeyman January 28, 2023 11:26 AM GMT
Well done Mes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pGE7xbeukE
Report Journeyman January 28, 2023 11:36 AM GMT
I just wanted to see her in a third set. Hands up I thought she'd crack but she answered all doubts.
She's the real deal. More importantly I can't see her quitting early to play golf or write kids' books!
Report mesmerised January 28, 2023 12:03 PM GMT


http://www.tennisdrawchallenge.com/bracket/wta/view/2023-australian-open/dirtballer

finished 1st out of 1384 bracketsCool

just over 13% had Sabalenka winning, most had Swiatek.


Current running thread profit: +5pts

Tsitsipas winning would smash it out of the park, but I predicted Novak, which is obviously the obvious winner.
Report mesmerised January 29, 2023 12:45 PM GMT
final result

winners

Quarter Winners
Djokovic @ 1.4
Tsitsipas @ 3.5
Sabalenka @ 3.1
Azarenka @ 11
Tournament Winners
Djokovic @ 1.83
Sabalenka @ 8

+22.83pts

losers

Quarter losers
Medvedev @ 2.5
Berrettini @ 7
Q. Zheng @ 13
Pliskova @ 11
Quarter winners value picks
Tiafoe @ 15
Norrie @ 8
Rublev @ 17
Schwartzmann @ 67
Yastremska @ 101
Kostyuk @ 21
Cirstea @ 31
Fruhvirtova @ 41
Winner value pick
Tsitsipas @ 17
Finalists
Djokovic and Medvedev @ 5.5.
Finalists value pick
Djokovic and Tiafoe @ 51
Finalists
Sabalenka and Zheng @ 151
Finalist value pick
Zheng and Garcia @ 201
Winner value pick
Fruhvirtova @ 250/1

-18pts

----------------
Total: +4.83pts
---------------
-


WTA tennisdrawchallenge 1st / 1,384

ATP tennisdrawchallenge: 818th / 2,312
Report wisewords January 30, 2023 3:10 PM GMT
good stuff mes! look forward to reading your thoughts before Indian Wells
Report mesmerised January 30, 2023 6:42 PM GMT
mucho gracias but the days of me having time for lengthy write ups are mostly gone due to time constraints but the summer sun does often squeeze a burst of energy out of me so maybe for the French Open or Wimbledon if any time.
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