Summer of (Breaking to) Love

Sun rises on Wimbledon, filled with Strawberries and cream, Pimms and ice cubes crushed, along with many hopes and dreams, tales from Barker and chums, we’ve heard a million times before, no more Boris, but there’s someone knocking on his prison door. Henman Hill alive with the sound of clanging glasses, held aloft by toffs and sozzled middle classes. Castle’s on the mic, with his generic drools, first week passes, with obligatory slips and falls. A Federerless draw breaks a new dawn, a young Spaniard rises, a new star is born. Plucky Brits all out by round 2, the media cries, Konta hung up her racquet too early, an Aussie in disguise. Come on Tim, yells from the back row, You cannot be Serious, winces McEnroe. English Rose set to bloom, an injured Emma, grass’s come to soon. People’s Sunday is no more, second Sunday yields cheers galore, as the Sun will set on courts evergreen, 2 weeks will pass, with Tennis never before seen. The Golden trophy’s sealed with a kiss, the race to Goatness, brings a new twist.

Ladies, Gentleman, Welcome…..to Wimbledon 2022

Section 1
Novak’s first round Korean opponent will be Kwon too soon and Novak will probably finish the tournament  over the moon with his his 21st grand slam title, is the very boring and inevitable conclusion, so instead of making it a tedious read I shall be making an alternative pick for the Wimbledon title on the off chance the apple cart in 2 weeks time has been upset. In the meantime Novax’s likely route to the final looks like Kwon > The Kokk > Kecmanovic > Opelka/Van Rijthoven > Alcatrash > Hurkacz/Norrie/Dimtrov > Berrettini/Kyrgios/Felix/Nadal, he’s 1.8 to win.

One interesting player in Novak’s quarter is the late bloomer, 25 year old  Dutchman Van Rijthoven who had never won an ATP level match before last week, he’ll will have to get through Delbonis > Opelka  > Basilashvili to met him in Round 4, he was given a Wildcard after winning Hertogenbosch last week, one of 3 Dutchman in the field he’s suffered wrist injuries for the last few years putting him in a false ranking position, just by winning his home tournament after being odds against in all 5 matches beating 3 top 15 players along the way including the exiled, transitional World number 1, Medvedev, he jumped 100 places and almost doubled his ranking points. Fellow Dutchie and former coach krajicek cites his new found strong mentality mentioning this area had been a weak point in previous years. Demonstrated the key attributes of spin and slice on the faster surface that used on grass will cause even the best players problems. This time last year he was playing  in an ITF tournie called ‘M25 The Hague’, no me neither. Don’t see any reason why he can’t reach R4, Good luck to him.

Alcaraz has no real grass court history having only played just 2 matches on tour on the surface and both at Wimbledon last year and being beaten by Med in straights in the second, though he played fairly well for a debutant despite winning few games, given how short the grass season is and how few tournaments anyone plays on it, it will take him more time to adapt just as Nadal did at the same age being Mulled by Gilles in Round 2 in 2005, he’ll need to change his second serve as the kick serve will not be as effective and will need to incorporate more slice on it. He missed Queen’s with a ‘slight elbow injury’ which doesn’t help, it’s one surface where you need practice  as you have very little muscle memory when it comes to footwork (maybe except for older players were rest is more beneficial), at least for the first week, second week with warmer weather and worn ground it’d feel more like a hard court, or harder court. His likely route to the quarters is Struff > Griekspoor > Clarke > Isner/Sinner/Murray. Can’t see Struff having any kind of Stuttgart inspired run from 3 years ago. Griekspoor is extremely limited, I’m probably being generous having Clarke reaching round 3 and Murray is a big question mark with his recent injuries and no warm up matches for this tournament. All that aside, Carlos is way too dynamic a player not to win this tournament at some point in the future even if his run ends here in the quarters which it probably will do,.“ Asked if he could be a contender on grass, Alcaraz said: “I hope so but I don’t think this year it’s going to be my surface. For sure in the future I can play pretty good on this surface if I play tournaments before Wimbledon and I think I will feel comfortable playing on this surface.”

10th seed Sinner has never won a grass court match at tour level and starts with Stan I must point to the head after winning key points Wawrinka, I’d imagine with no ranking points Stan will not be as motivated  as he would be ordinarily given he’s been relying on Wildcards this year to build up on his 235th position in the world, it’s points he needs given his realistic chance of winning the main prize is slim to zero he’ll probably tank this giving Sinner his first win. I’d be surprised if he exerted much energy at his age to win a load of matches here that will inhibit his chances of climbing the rankings during the American swing. Murray was advising Jannick how to play on grass last summer, they’ll could meet here in round 3 but I wouldn’t rule out big John Isner upsurping him.

Quarter winner: Djokovic @ 1.36
Value punt: Rijthoven @ 50

Section 2
Casper Ruud, one of the most underwhelming French Open finalists I’ve seen in a long while probably since Verkerk in 2003, doesn’t like grass and said earlier in the year he’ll practice for it by playing Golf, I wonder what his handicap is in Golf because his tennis equivalent on the green is probably 28, you’re not winning Wimbledon needing 100 shots, so to speak, stick to clay. He should beat fellow dirtballer, Ramos-Vinolas but I think Humbert who’s had some excellent results on grass in recent times including winning Halle last year, would beat him in Round 2, even the matches his lost in the warm up events this year have only been lost in narrow 3rd setters. I can see him getting through Etchverry > Ruud > Goffin> and possibly Tiafoe before losing in the quarters. Speaking of Francis, it always feels like he’s on the verge of making a great run at a slam but apart from Australia in few years ago, it never really happens, he looks tailor made for grass and if there’s one surprise to win a quarter it could be him finally. Maybe it’s because players of his showman mentality tend to be more motivated on the bigger stage idk, but there is talent there regardless.

Usually with Grand slams there is added pressure on players who done well the previous seasons as it mens they have a bucket load of ranking points to defend, that wont be the case this year and it will help the likes of 2021 Wimbledon Semi finalist Hurkacz who is not used to defending points in the latter stages of slams as his record in them is quite poor, (incidentally he hit a great backhand down the line shot on the slide to set up set point v Novak at Wimbledon 2-3 years ago that has lived long in the memory) . He goes into this tournament knowing he’s already lost the pts he accrued thanks to the dumb decision by the ATP. The polite Pole however has just won Halle beating a high calibre field including Felix the cat, Kyrgios and Medvedev. I don’t know why he’s only made it to the second week in the 4 majors only once as he has everything in his locker to making the second week consistently, first strike tennis he possesses and ability to retrieve low bouncing balls on grass makes him suitable for it, though defending on this surface at 6ft5 probably drains energy but should be good for winning this quarter, Davidovich-Fokina > Vesely > Paul > Norrie/Dimitrov > Humbert/Tiafoe, some fairly dangerous floaters in there, it’s a very open quarter but he is favourite at 3.0. I couldn’t predict Dimitrov with any confidence as he’s the archetypal hit and miss player.

Quarter winner: Hurkacz @ 3.0
Value punt: Tiafoe @ 20’s

Section 3
Berrettini and his ultra thin legs are back in business having been forced to miss Roland Garros with injury, he’s won over 90% of his grass court matches in the last 3 years, 31 from 34 matches, comes in off of the back of winning Stuttgart and Queens, likely route to victory is Garin > Bonzi > De Minaur > Kyrgios > Felix/Nadal/Cilic > Novak, a basic breakdown of why he’s so effective on grass is that returning such big serving bombs and forehand shots is more difficult here than it is on on hard or clay and if you do return the ball to his backhand, the slice bh shot he has forces opponents to return more aerially given the low ball trajectory on impact which tees up another rocket winner, first strike tennis strikes again, his game-plan is all about keeping points short. Like Hurkacz he is another player with no pressure to do well knowing the 1200 pts from 2021 are gone already, has also said “"It will be record prize money this year so everyone is willing to play, but also because it is Wimbledon and one of the most important tournaments we have." which at least shows motivation unlike Osaka who’s called it an exhibition event. Potential Round 4 banana skin in De Minaur who looks pretty adept on grass.
I find it difficult to give Tsitsipas any chance of making the second week let alone any further even though he’s the 4th seed, it’s no reflection of his grass ability otherwise he barely make any seed (exaggerate to emphasis a point), he’ll probably lose to Kyrgios in round 3. Problem being he has a poor return on service and has had a fairly mediocre backhand slice unlike Berrettini (though has got better in 2022) and that’s a shot that works wonders on grass and is very difficult to deal with, one of the main reasons Barty won in the women’s last year. His record at Wimbledon is R1-R4-R1-R1, he’ll put out Ritschard in the first round but could easily be ‘upset’ in the 2nd to Jordan Thompson who is one of the few who seems to really like playing on the surface, but probably R3 to Hades. 7th favourite to win Wimbledon but I have him 5th fav to get out of his quarter alive. He may have done well this week at Nadal’s tournament but he’s played a low calibre field in general.
Kyrgios has pulled out of Mallorca this week as a precaution with what is probably a phantom abdominal strain in order to be properly prepared for Wimbledon rather that arriving last minute.com off of the back of  long week should he have reached the final, he only turned up to collect his 10 grand but has had enough grass court practice this month in Germany anyway, he said at some Basketball event earlier this year he’s the best grass court player in the world, he is a mug, but there is an element of truth in this based on pure ability rather than being able to put medals on the table won on this surface, because he’s never won any, apart from a lowly challenger in Nottingham a few years ago. It may seem inconsequential and trivial but he is happy off court having bought his first home with his girlfriend, this as Alex Ferguson always used to say is vital for a players performance, if they’re happy off court they’re happy on it and you’re more likely to see the best of them. He is easily the most naturally talented player on tour outside of Nadal and Novak. Speaking of mugs I must be one to be even considering him to be winning this quarter but if there ever was a time it feels like now. Jubb > Krajinovic > Tsitsipas > Shapovalov/Bautista Agut is his likely route out of this quarter. It probably wasn’t the wisest of choice by RBA to play on the Spanish island this week, at his age he should be valuing rest over match practice in warm up events so close to the start.
Onto the last featured player of this section, the Shap. I find his whinging outbursts at times annoying but he is a talented player, having said that he is now looking like a player not as backable as he was a few months ago hence a nose dive in the odds, he had a fairly poor 2021 outside of a half decent Wimbledon run, but is now coming into Wimbledon 2022 on a 6 game losing run having started 5 of them as favourite, no idea what the reason is either, he is either being poorly coached or has some other personal issues idk, but his results are way below his natural ability, whilst winning the tournament is motivation in itself the fact he can’t defend the semi points from last year does make you question the levels of desire to reach the last 4 again especially given his form and confidence . Earlier this year in February on the Felix thread I made I mentioned he was 20’s, he’s now 125’s whilst Felix has stayed close to the same. All that said that price for his talent cannot be overlooked, form or no form.

I’ve already gone for two short priced quarters winners and can’t be doing with a third especially given Nick is a genuine threat should he meet Berrettini, and so maybe against my better judgement I’m plumping for this  head case, incidentally I saw quote from Wilander recently who said his style is a bad example to kids as he doesn’t use his feet when smashing a forehand and instead just slaps the ball, I must be missing something, it’s a great disguised shot that often leaves opponents flat footed, looks aesthetically pleasing too..
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Quarter winner: Kyrgios @ 6.5
Value punt:  Brooksby @ 40’s, Bergs @ 80’s

Section 4
Pretty uninspiring section on the whole.
Nadal and his sleeping foot are playing apparently, he’s fav to win this quarter @ 2.25  and 3rd fav to win the tournament outright @ 7/1, one minute retirement is predicted from the sport, the next he says "I can walk normal most of the days, almost every single day. That's for me the main issue," said the 36-year-old Spaniard at Wimbledon on Saturday. "When I wake up, I don't have this pain that I was having for the last year and a half, so quite happy about that. "And second thing, practicing. Since the last two weeks, I didn't have one day of these terrible days that I can't move at all. The feeling and overall feelings are positive”….it’s an early Xmas miracle. His route to the final looks like Cerundolo > Querrey > Kudla  > Cilic  > Felix > Kyrgios/Berrettini > Novax. Not much to say here as you never really know whether it’s all smoke and mirrors. I’ve actually edited this part to shoehorn in the above quotes, which subsequently does weaken my hopes and expectations for Felix, oh well, but yes, a fully fit Nadal in theory should be making to the final but I shall plough on with the Cat regardless.
Auger-Aliassime has been my long term prediction to win Wimbledon one day and there’s no reason why it can’t be this year, his aggressive style really suits grass, there are 2 simple ingredients to winning a slam, having the game-style suitable to a surface and having it between the ears, he is very well psychologically conditioned to cope in high pressure moments unlike his compatriot Shapovalov, and many other tennis players alike. Lost to an inspired and eventual winner Van Rijthoven in Holland in a 3rd set tie breaker, and to eventual winner Hurkacz in Germany in 2 close tie breakers, off of the back of quarter, semi and final appearance last year in the 3 warm events to Wimbledon in 2021. Also last year he admitted grass is the most difficult surface but because he loves playing on it, unlike many other players who have lost before they’ve hit the court simply because they believe it belongs to cows and sheep, it means he can overcome the barrier mentally. “The first thing that comes to mind is the beauty of it, how nice the feeling is under your feet to be on something so soft and so nice and I think that the fact that we move and there is no sound, just the sound of the ball you hit is a very nice feeling.” Sounds like he’s away with the fairies but whatever works for you. His likely route to the final is Cressy > Sock > Evans > Fritz > Cilic/Nadal > Berrettini/Kyrgios > Novaxx.

Quarter winner: Auger-Aliassime @ 4/1
Value punt: Van de Zandschulp @ 33’s

Footnote: half decent players in this tournament on grass other than the big names, Evans, Querrey, Isner, Goffin, RBA, Thompson, Humbert, Bonzi, Kudla, Otte, Lopez, Bergs, Rijthoven.

[WTA

Section 1
Swiatek is on a 35 match unbeaten run stretching back to 16th of February spanning 6 tournament wins, with a couple of Billi Jean King matches sandwiched in between, it’s the joint longest unbeaten run on tour in the 21st century shared with Venus and here she is at the foot of a new tournament ready to chase down the The Venus Rosewater Dish itself, I had to shoehorn these 2 Venus quotes in somehow.   
Iga won Junior Wimbledon 3 years ago, but comparing that to the main tour is apples and oranges. For her on grass it’s all about adaption, possess the basic attributes to be a success here long term, hits big, moves well, retrieves well but it’s all about technical adaptation, hitting flatter harder shots when facing the faster lower bounces as her huge topspin shots will be nullified somewhat compared to the effect they have on clay, kick serve is the best on tour, not as effective on grass, the extreme grip/big wide racquet swings that bamboozled opponents also wont work as well, will have to hit a lot of shorter at times…there’s been no transitional period in the form of match play from the clay to the grass which is red flag for someone with little experience here.  A semi final at best but I’d fancy Andreescu at this juncture to win the quarter. In a years time she’ll much more oven ready to win. She has Aga’s old coach who will be a plus given it was her favourite surface. Aga the squatter could become Iga the squatter. I don’t see how she can’t be expected to clean up here based on recent results on other surfaces especially considering she has no real record on grass to write home about, has only ever won 4 main matches and they were against weak players.
Whilst many claim surfaces play more similarly than they did compared to yesteryear (speeds are closer), the key differences are still big enough to explain the disparity in match records that players have, some top players excel on hard but not on clay, some on clay and not on hard etc, it’s usually a reflection of their physical makeup which in turn dictates their playing style (as well as what they’ve all grown up on), along with the will to adapt to and embrace what’s under their feet. At slam level, Kerber, Pliskova, Kvitova, Azarenka, Osaka, all good or have been good on hard courts, poor on clay, Henin was an all round player but won 4 French open titles and no Wimbledon’s for a reason, and not always because of the Williams sisters, losing to Demenitieva, Pierce,  Bartoli.
Likely route to the final is Fett > Kovinic > Cornet > Golubic/Krejcikova > /Andreescu > Martic/Vekic > Kvitova/Halep/Muchova/Gauff/Anisimova/Pliskova, fairly straight forward wins for the first 4 round though if she clipped any hurdle in the first week I’d have to say it’d have to be Alize who’s beaten better grass players than Iga in recent years and looked good recently, but @ 2.5 strong fave to win the tournament? not for me. I went against the odds rather than the player at the French knowing full well she’d probably win but here it’s different as I’m going against both for the aforementioned reasons.
There are 5 slam winners in this section, the others are Andreescu, Muguruza, Stephens and Krejcikova,  dangerous floaters in Rybakina, peculiar Pegula, and Vekic, a half decent grass court player, There’s also rising star Zheng, never won on grass but you have to start somewhere.
Like in a lot WTA encounters one of highlights is the looks and the handshake at the net, sometimes it’s almost worth the entrance fee alone and often tells the story of the match, if handshakes could speak, Garbine’s to Giorgi at the net in Eastbourne would say “well done on your little win but this tournament means nothing to me”, looks done as a top level player atm, don’t know how she’s still top 10, had a very poor year in stark contrast to 2021 winning only 8 of 19 matches (42%) she often starts off matches well (won the first set 13 times from the 19) but then collapses for whatever reason, fitness, motivation etc, does not look  like she moves as well as she used to….not backable here at all given all that and her draw projection to the final, Minnen > Stephens/Zheng  > Rybakina/Bianca > Pegula/Vekic > Swiatek > Pliskova/Gauff/Halep/Muchova/Kvitova/. Conchita was voted WTA coach of the year last year, if WTA had a Razzies version for worst coach of the year she’d probably win that this year as well. Needs a change and a different voice in her head.

Andreescu route to the final looks like Bektas > Rybakina > Stephens/Muguruza > Pegula/Martic > Swiatek  >Kvitova/Halep/Muchova/Gauff/Anisimova/Pliskova , whilst Bianca has never beaten anyone significant on grass it doesn’t matters, she plays well on it and came very close to beating Pliskova in Berlin, her progress over the last couple of years has been stunted by injury (and covid), now that’s out the way I wouldn’t be surprised to see her win this tournament outright at all, she’s currently around the 10th favourite @ 28/1 best price, ridiculously behind 40 years and 9 months old Serena playing her first match of 2022. The rest ahead of her are justified, even Haddad Maia. Easily one of the most naturally talented players on tour she looks fitter now than 3 years ago when she won the US Open, deciding to miss the start of the season is paying off. She seemed to hitting the baller deeper against Kasatkina than against Swan, if hitting short balls against the big hitters she’ll be eaten for breakfast, intelligent enough not to.

Listed Rybakina as a dangerous floater but she herself has a tricky player to beat in Round 1 in Shuai Zhang at least she did, after Keys withdrew she now plays Coco found a way, Zhang however who is no gimmie for anyone having won 18 of her 28 grass matches in the last 3 seasons, that’s not what makes her tricky, it’s because Shaui Zhang never knows what Shuai Zhang is going to do next. Having said that she retired in the Birmingham final at 54 down in the first set with a neck injury, she was expected to play 3 matches in one day, 2 singles and a doubles final, what kind of tournament organisation is that. Incidentally it’s extremely rare players retire in finals yet on the same day over in Germany, Bencic retired from her final against Jabeur with an ankle injury. Zhang missed Eastbourne to recover and is almost 2/1 to win this match, fully fit looks decent value. Rybakina has demonstrated last year and in 2019 she is suited to grass but the unscientific analysis is, I’m not feeling her this year. No surprise to see her lose early in round 2 to Bianca.

Low expectations for Babora with 2 straight losses after coming back from the elbow injury she had, she needed a fairly kind draw at Wimbledon, she has that in round 1 but would think Golubic would knock her out in Round 2 given the above.

It’s hard to believe Sloane square Stephens will be 30 next year, when she won the US Open in 2017 I thought she’d finish up on 4-5 slams, now it’s hard to see her finishing with 4-5 semi final appearances at the slams or maybe that’s just So Disrespectful, if the eyes are the window to the soul, when you look at hers you often see fear and lack of self belief which is a shame for one of the more naturally gifted players who actually have a tennis brain and don’t just hack at everything, like your Kasatkina’s and Svitolina’s. She is in a fairly tough section with a Zheng > Muguruza > Andreescu/Ryba > Vekic/Pegula > Swiatek > HalepMuchova/Kvitova/Gauff etc. I think we could be looking an an early round 1 bath.

Other mentions, I think Golubic could well make the 4th round, Petkovic > Krejcikova > Tomljanovic, the latter whom she has just recently beaten in Nottingham. Haven’t mentioned Dart at all yet, she gives me strong ‘plucky Brit loses narrow 2nd round match’ vibes, at least she’s here on merit and not by wildcard.

Quarter winner: Andreescu @ 9/1
Value punt:  Cornet @ 66/1

Section 2
Badosa’s no look handshake with Burrage on the south coast said “thanks for the practice b1tch I had no intention of winning this match anyway”, a lot of people don’t like her demeanour but show me a good loser and I’ll show you a loser etc, having said that to me she doesn’t look comfortable or natural on grass in terms of moving well, didn’t know when to go to the net, when not to. I see her projected draw as Chirico > Paquet > Kvitova > Halep/Muchova > Pliskova / Gauff / Anismimova / Andreescu / Swiatek, on paper looks like round 3 given P3tra’s new found form on her best surface. She is a good hard court player but wont be missed here.

Speaking of Big foot, matches are not won on paper and she has a tricky round 2 match against Yascreamska, the odds suggest she’ll be double bagelling pocket rocket Paolini at 14/1 in the first, who has beaten Collins and Sabalenka on grass before, the old old Kvitova would have been a shoe in for both matches but it wouldn’t be a shock to me to see her go out in round 1 despite the odds, I find her to be that unreliable these days even though she has played well all week in Eastbourne. Insitinct tells me her run there is a flash in the pan, the most difficult seed to predict. Incidentally, she is still imo the best player on tour who never reached World number 1 when she was at her best. Probably loses to Simona in the fourth.

Halep like Kyrgios decided she’d had enough grass court practice and pulled out of her Semi final match against Andreescu in Bad Homburg with a neck injury that probably doesn’t exist, but she looks very backable at 18/1 to win the tournament, she’s won 6 of her 7 grass matches in the lead up to Wimbledon and must have won of the highest % wins on tour this year, yet she seems to be overlooked as a realistic winner again. Her route through is Muchova > Flipkins > Giorgi > Kvitova/Yastremska/Badosa > Gauff/ Aninismova/Pliskova > Andreescu/Swiatek. Whilst Muchova is a good grass court player I don’t see her being much of a problem for an in form Halep at all, it’ll be a battle of relentless compact swing hitting in round 3 v Camilla who’ll you just know will start off well before fading when under pressure, no doubt Doc Brown will be making an appearance to coach her from the sides, only in the quarters do I see her being tested assuming it’s Gauff as Halep is just a bad match up for Kaplis, Amanda had no answers for her in Germany either and that too looked liked a bad match up, best serving performance I’ve seen from her in years hitting 10 aces and 31 winners, she hit a total of 15 aces in the whole of Wimbledon during her run to the title here in 2019. I suppose mouratoglou should be claiming some credit. Having said all of that, it’s being dressed up as a nightmare draw for her, not for me, not til the last 8 begins anyway. She does however join the list of seeded players who do have a so called tough or tricky round 1 match on paper, along with, Pegula (Vekic), Collins (Bouzkova), Raducanu (Van Uytvanck),  Trevisan (Cocciaretto), Putinseva (Cornet) and Teichmann (Tomljanovic), I’ll probably throw in Matincova for Pliskova as well which is no straightforward win.

Gauff’s draw looks like Ruse > Schunk > Anisimova > Pliskova > Halep > Andreescu/Swiatek. Cori recently beat Kaplis in Berlin in 2 close sets saving sets points in the first when 54 down with some good underhand slices to the back of the court. Being pushed forward by her marketing and being  so massively overhyped from an early age by the media and especially the BBC made a lot of tennis followers rather than Joe Public, rally against her as they don’t like players foisted on them whilst being told she is the next best thing since bread, given wildcards at 15 she hadn’t earnt and put on show-courts in front of others she hadn’t deserved, all that aside she is a genuine top talent who is going to win this tournament one day and will be top 5 given she is good on all surfaces, but she is never going to be the next Serena or Venus as often mooted by many just because she’s Afro American, lazy comparison, she doesn’t have that kind of dominating game, she just has a very good all round one, think she will meet Halep in the quarters.

Other mentions: Serena, impossible to gage exactly where she’s at considering she hasn’t played a single match in 12 months and is virtually retired at nearly 41, I couldn’t back her outright with stolen money, out in round 3 to Pliskova assuming she doesn’t retire in one of her previous 2 rounds which seems likely. I’ve completely overlooked Boulter thus far who’s had a very decent run on grass this season, beat the real Pliskova whom she could meet in round 2 again, Riske who’s best surface it is and narrowly lost to Petra, though she did eat a bagel half way through the match.

Quarter winner: Halep @ 6/1
Value punt:  Yastremska @ 66/1, Boulter @ 80/1

Section 3
3rd seed, 3rd ranked Jabuer is the strong favourite to win the 3rd section after winning her 3rd tournament recently at 2/1 and is 2nd favourite to win Wimbledon at 9/1 behind Swiatek. Once bitten twice shy, I backed her to win the French and she lost to Linette in round 1 albeit a confirmed banana skin match, this time she begins with a 10/1 shot in Bjorklund who off the top of my head, I don’t think I’ve ever seen play, she’s basically a bone fide ITF level player who shoud be steamrolled. I wont be predicting her to win again largely because I think their are better other value options around and not because she’s not a genuine contender which she definitely is, there are not many reasons to oppose her at all. Jabba won Birmingham last year, reached the quarters of Wimbledon, beating Venus, Garbine and Swiatek along the way, won Berlin this year, projected route is Bjorklund > Marino > Kanepi/Tauson > Kerber/Mertens > Kostyuk/Garcia/Van Uytvanck > Penko/Bencic/Haddad Maia/Kontaveit/Sakkari.
I’m glad that at the beginning of the season I set my goals high, and said that I want to hold titles, win a Grand Slam and be top five. There is one more to achieve [a major] and hopefully I will achieve it. “It would mean a lot [to win Wimbledon]. It’s just such a great tournament. I remember the crowd last year was amazing. It’s a surface that I can play really well on and I can enjoy myself. And that’s why I would love to get the Wimbledon trophy.
"Hopefully I will be ready. My eyes are on Wimbledon.” And the 27-year-old attributes her success on the surface to football. “I love grass. I have a love relationship with the grass,” she said ahead of her doubles campaign with the 23-time Major champion in Eastbourne. “Everything started with football because I'm a huge football fan.” Explaining how the game helped her with her tennis, Jabeur continued: “I feel when I step on the court it's like playing football for me. Usually when I do that, I'm never tired, I'm always enjoying myself so that's why maybe I'm having a great time there.” And the new world No 3 also thought the grass was good for the variety in her game. “Also my game suits very well the grass,” she said. “You can really disturb a lot of players, the slices, the drop shot, you can never know if I'm hitting or changing the rhythm so I think that's a big advantage for me.“And the fact that I can adapt my game also on grass could help me really get more wins. Also winning a lot of matches on it, I think, gives me more and more confidence.” Jabeur is also hoping for a good run at Wimbledon following her shock first-round exit at the French Open, where she was one of the favourites for the title.

Collins is coming off of the back of 3 poor tournaments no history on grass to speak off, it would be no surprise to anyone to see 7th seed lose to Booze cruise kova in Round 1, odds are closely matched which for a 7th seeded player they shouldn’t be, I see Riske as one of the very few grass specialists to win that mini section and reach round 3 beating In-Albon > Siniakova >Collins/Bouzkova before losing to Van Uytvanck, Garcia or Kostyuk in the fourth. A big shame Raducanu has been ravished by injuries all year because I’d have tipped her to win the tournament as a dark horse, sort of, but she’s not backable at all at the minute and is probably at Wimbledon just to give it a go, struggle to see her beating Alison in Round 1 because of this, she’s ranked 10th against an unseeded player whose peak ranking is 37 yet she’s around 2.4 to win the match which tells the story, if there is one slam where the Ginger Belgian could win a quarter it’s be on grass as it’s her best surface by far, said after winning Surbiton “I love to play on grass so I’m really happy with the win.

“My level rose throughout the week, I just love to have the low bounces, the serves, it’s important you have to stay aggressive, that’s what I like a lot about the grass and that’s what I had to do. Also the variety with the slice is what I did today and be patient a little bit, so yeah happy about that.” Unfortunantley for her she runs into Garcia who has just beaten Andreescu to win Bad Homburg, her 3rd title on grass.

Bar far the biggest threat to Jabuer in this quarter is none of the above, it’s Kerber in round 4 should she get past Mind the Gap > Linette > Mertens, didn’t look that interested to me against Alize in Germany at least in the last set, probably looking to conserve energy at her pension age of 34, still more than good enough to get back to the semi’s where she was last year losing to the Aboriginal Golfer. Despite Garcia’s purple patch no self respecting gambling man would back her with confidence, there is zero mental consistency to her game.

Quarter winner: Kerber @ 5/1
Value punt: Kostyuk @ 25/1 Van Uytvanck @ 30/1, Riske@ 20/1


Section 4
I honestly do not know how Kontaveit has reached 2nd in the world, she is strictly a Round 3 level player in the slams and has basically been dining out on her indoor results, to be 2nd in the world having only ever made one solitary quarter finals in the majors is laughable, but that’s the way the cookie crumbles with the ranking system. Her projected route is Pera > Niemeier > Kalinina > Haddad Maia/Bencic > Penko/SoranaGoat/Sakkari > Kerber/Jabeur….Kalinina had a good run at Eastbourne beating Sorana, Sakkari and Poots in boots before losing to Ostapancake, also had a lot of good wins against top players all year. Would be no surprise to me to see Anett getting beating in the the 3rd. Niemeier who must eat at the same breakfast table as Ostapenko, Baptiste and Kanepi of a morning, and who was unlucky with injury losing to Stephens at the French, would have half a a chance as a big server and big forehand, gave Bencic a run for her money in Birmingham, but she’s too slow a mover for Kontaveit on a quicker surface, in fact she’s a poor mover. Low expectations for AK either way.

For my money Bencic along with the likes of Osaka, Andreescu, Swiatek etc, is one of the most naturally gifted players but has been a career disappointment in the slams, junior champions at the French and Wimbledon and picked to be a multi slam winner from the off, she’s made one lone semi by the age of 25. A question mark here given she hurt her ankle last week in the Berlin final and was forced to retire…. “Speaking briefly after the match Bencic explained that she felt something in her ankle which is not very good news. She is unsure how bad it is and it seems like it might not be that bad because she did not seem too worried after the match:
"I just slipped, not sure how. I feel it's something in my ankle/Achilles. I'm going to evaluate it with the doctors, go home and rest. It was a very positive week. My tennis was great. I'm happy with my level." Plays first round match aganst former world number 12 Wang, who’s coached by former Wimbledon winner Pat Cash, she hasn’t had the chance to play here since she started working with him 18 months ago, no gimmie for Belinda despite the odds.

I fancy Sakkari chances here to win not only her quarter but her half and make the final, she’s one of the best movers out there and grass suits her game perfectly even if past results show it’s not her best surface, her route to the final looks like Hives > Gavrilova > Cirstea > Penko > Haddad Maia > Kerber/Jabeur. Picked up 5 wins from 8 matches in 3 tournaments, she said she wanted to start her grass season earlier as the more she plays the better she feels, which is the reason I can’t understand why Iga skipped the warm ups completely.  One caveat is that Daria is one player you can trip up against if you’re not on it, another player in a false ranking position after barely playing the last couple of years. Not wanting to fat shame again, you have to wonder if Penko is going to have the core fitness to sustain a run here even though she’s favourite to win the bottom quarter at 4.5. She hasn’t won more than 2 matches in a row at a slam in 4 years.

Finally Haddad Maia cannot be ignored, she’s just won 12 of 14 matches on grass in the last few weeks winning back to back tournaments in the midlands beating, Halep, Kvitova, Riske, Giorgi, Zhang, Sakkari, Martincova along the way, she also beat grass lover Rybarikova 3 years ago on in an ITF and Murugurza at Wimbledon, yet my instict with here is just ‘meh’, probably because she has vulture written all over her.

Quarter winner: Sakkari @ 6/1
Value punt: Cirstea @ 30/1, Kalinina @ 30/1


Overview ATP

Quarter winners predictions
1. Djokovic @ 1.36, 2. Hurkacz @ 3.75, 3. Kyrgios @ 6.5 4. Auger-Alissime @ 4/1


Quarter winners - Value punts:
1.Rijthoven @ 50’s, 2. Tiafoe @ 20’s, 3.  Brooksby @ 40’s, Bergs @ 80’s,  4. Van de Zandschulp @ 33’S.

Quarter Final line ups prediction
Djokovic v Alcaraz
Tiafoe v Hurkacz
Berrettini v Kyrgios
Felix v Cilic

Tournament winner prediction 
Auger-Aliassime @ 18/1

Tournament winner - Value punts:
Kyrgios 28/1, Shapovalov @ 125/1


To reach the final prediction
Felix @ 7/1

To reach the final - value punts
Shappvalov @ 80/1, Norrie 100/1


To meet in the final
Novak and Felix @11/1

To meet in the final - value punt
Felix and Hurkacz @ 66/1
Shapovalov and Djokovic@ 66/1
Cilic and Djokovic @ 20/1
Hurkacz and Cilic @ 125/1
Hurkacz and Kyrgios 125/1




Overview WTA

Quarter winners predictions WTA
1. Andreescu @ 9/1, 2. Halep @ 6/1, 3. Kerber@ 5/1 4. Sakkari @ 6/1

Quarter winner - Value punts:
1.Cornet @ 66/1, 2. Yastremska @ 66/1, Boulter @80/1 3.  Van Uytvanck @ 30/1, Riske @ 20/1,  4. Cirstea @ 30/1, Kalinina @ 30/1

Quarter Final line ups prediction
Swiatek v Andreescu
Halep v Gauff
Kostyuk v Kerber
Sakkari v Kalinina

Tournament winner prediction 
Sakkari @ 33/1

Tournament winner - value punts
Andreescu @ 33/1, Golubic @ 500/1, Yastremska @ 600/1


To reach the final prediction
Halep @ 12/1

To reach the final - value punt
Pliskova @ 22/1, Boulter @ 250/1, Yastremska @ 250/1

To meet in the final prediction
Halep v Sakkari final @ 125/1

To meet in the final - value punts
Sakkari v Gauff @ 100/1
Sakkari v Andreescu @ 150/1
Andreescu v Jabeur @ 80/1
Halep v Kerber @ 125/1
Halep v Jabeur @ 50/1
Halep v Haddad @100/1
Gauff v Kerber @ 100/1
Pliskova v Jabeur @125/1
Kvitova v Kerber @ 100/1



Yes Novak will probably win, but it’s no fun basing everything around such a short priced fave. All prices quoted above are the best prices available with the bookies at the time according to oddscheker.

My entire pre draw picks in the spoilers below



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Kind Regards