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my Geography teacher once said to me that on the beaches of Portsmouth on a good clear day, you can see the Isle of Wight, and on a bad day, you can see France, for 2 weeks of the year I don't subscribe to that notion as this is the best tournament of the year.
Swiatek and her extreme ‘extreme’ grip are on a phenomenal run of 28 wins in a row which is the best on tour since Serena’s 34 straight wins 9 years ago in 2013. Those 28 wins have stretched across 5 straight tournaments with four of them being at 1000 level, it’s not just the winning streak that has been impressive but the manner of them, 23 have been in straight sets, barely dropping more than 3 games in each, serving up 12 bagels and 10 breadsticks and all whilst beating high quality opponents along the way. She now heads into the land of frogs and snails munchers at anything but Snails pace as clear and justified favourite, no doubt sitting down for breakfast of a morning in the summer sun with some more pastry in the form of French croissants and some cheese, before exploding onto court against qualifier Tsurenko leaving De Brie all over the court
. Her recent quotes are interesting and give an insight into her newfound consistency, she no longer feels pressure and plays with freedom of mind.
Having said all of that, 1.9 to win the tournament outright is ridiculously short odds in a best of 3 format across 7 matches in the women’s game in what is anything but a cake walk draw. Halep in Round 4 is not a gimmie whatsoever and could go either way, she’s not back to her very best but she’s not far off it having won 19 of 25 matches this year, Iga was only about 1.6 to beat her in Indian Wells albeit a different surface but clay is their best surface for both of them. After recently hooking up with Patrick Mouratoglou she cited him as being responsible for her newfound love and motivation for tennis whilst also saying I feel refreshed; I feel more confident; I feel healthy. Finally! I have no problems now, with no injuries. I feel so happy to be back on the court, and I am looking forward to playing each match because I really want to continue to improve, Patrick and the new team has brought me new confidence in myself. They really believe that I am still able to play good tennis, so the goal is to win tournaments and to be as strong as I can be.
The winner of this quarter will be between the two. After given her the big build up I’d rather go with Halep at 7.5 than Swiatek at 1.44, given how close this match would be the disparity in odds makes only 1 backable. This of course assuming Halep beats Ostapancake which she should, Penko being the archetypal, flash in the pan, one slam wonder n’ all.
Moving to the second section it looks like a 2 horse race, I’m not considering Sabatoothlenka who is an average clay courter who’d I’d only give hope to at altitude where she could hit hit as many bombs as she wants given how effective serving can be in places like Madrid several hundred feet above sea level, she won there last year beating a strong field but has never won more than 2 matches in a row at Roland Garros, Paris is about 25m above sea where foot movement is 9 tenths of the law, the other 10th is getting the ball over the net. She’ll probably beat Paquet and Brengle before losing to Poots in boots or Daria. Same goes for the likes of Rybakina despite reaching the QF last year, the first 3 opponents were weak whilst Serena was fit for the knackers yard. Keys has also made a SF and QF but each time the opponents were unimpressive including Osaka who is allergic to red dust. Either of these 2 should be losing to Badosa in Round 4 should they make it that far.
The biggest threat to Badosa making the semi’s is Kasatkina, there is Collins but I couldn’t back Collins with counterfeit as you never know which version of her will show up due to all the injuries she’s had, served several DF’s v Naomi in Miami carrying a neck injury but still went onto play Madrid and barely put up any kind of fight against Andreescu and looked liked she couldn’t wait to be put out of her misery. Red Flag. Kasatkina has a poor record here but given the fairly kind draw she has whilst picking up some good clay court wins v Sakkari, Badosa herself and Teichmann, actual half decent players on this surface, she stands every chance of reaching the semi, also pushed Jabeur to the wire in her Rome Semi final, Jabeur who’s won over 80% of her clay matches in the last 2 years (30/37). Badosa is favourite to win this part of the draw and I’d have to go with that @ 4.5 Daria is 8’s. Lame odds but it is what it is. Paula plays wildcard Ferro first round, Juvan probably 2nd, who’s had a long week in Strasbourg which isn’t ideal preparation, then Kudermetova in Round 3 who’d be the first potential banana skin, she thrashed her in Madrid but lost to her in Charleston last year. Footnote, Garcia hasn’t played since March and is probably coming for a R1 pay check, she pulled out of Strasbourg saying it was too early to compete. Townsend is favourite and has been racking up wins on the ITF.
I saw the sporting life tipping Martic at 100 as a dark horse, although she does have clay pedigree, that was some time ago and she’s the wrong side of 30, there’s dark horses then there’s invisible one’s.
Section number 3, this looks like the most interesting and tightest section with Jabeur the Hutt deserved favourite and a lot of people’s second choice to win the tournament. Her projected quarter draw is Linette>Trevisan>Gavrilova>Raducanu>Bencic/Anisimova/Sakkari, the first 3 matches should be a box ticking exercise before it starts to get interesting, Gavrilova had 1 good year on clay 5 years ago but in is just a hard court player in essence. Lost all 3 clay matches this year to Friedsam, Haddad-Maia and Pottypova, yes they were close, but they are all what is known in the trade, as pigeons. In the last 4 tournaments Ons has been to the final 3 times winning Madrid whilst being odds against v Halep and Bencic, 17 from 20 wins in total on clay following on from 13 from 17 wins on the same surface last year, I don’t think she’s a bad match up for Swiatek who beat her in the Rome finals, she just looked liked just ran out of gas at the time which goes against what she’s recently said about newfound fitness regime being the biggest reason for consistency, work in progress. She comes into Paris as the former French Open junior Champions with extra motivation "The French Open has a great story with Tunisian people because it's really the Grand Slam that everybody follows, "I know there are a lot of French-Tunisians who live in Paris, so it's going to be a great tournament for me.", "Of course now I have played a lot of great matches on clay. I have more confidence in myself. So yeah, the goal is to go as far as I can in the French Open.. I can’t see her not getting to at least 4 to state the obvious.
Raducanu yesterday said she’s free of injuries that ‘It feels good to be able to move freely and just like run around. You know, it's quite fun’ and that 'she was ‘free to play all the shots’. That may be true whilst practicing but in recent months she’s had back and foot problems and inadvertently admitted she’s not as strong as she could be on clay but expects to be so in a few years, injuries, lack of clay experience and physicality on this surface all point to it being too early to make an impact this year, think this tournament will be filed under ‘a good experience’, every chance of winning Wimbledon however but I’ll get to that next month. Practicing and playing real matches are two different things. Think she can get to round 4 v Jabba at best.
Kerber has been knocked out at the French in Round 1 in 5 of the last 6 years, at her age and ranking I don’t know why she bothered to play Strasbourg, she’d had been better of resting for the week, her Round 1 opponent is Frech who’s only ever recorded 1 top 50 win on clay and that was recently against Big Foot Petra who like Kerber is also just a normal player outside of the hard and grass. Her race will be done early.
Sakkari, Anisimova, Andreescu and Bencic are the four players who will fight it out to play Ons in Round 4, despite Amanda and Bianca’s ranking they are all quality wise top 15 players, yet 3 of them will be out in the first week. The Greek has the most pressure having to defend 780 points from last year whereas the other 3 have a free swing after being knocked out in either the first or second round. I don’t think Andreescu has played enough high level matches, or matches in general this year, to make an impression here and will probably lose to Bencic in round 2 who’s much more oven ready. Sakkari learnt after last years semi loss to be more aggressive in big match points after admittedly being passive in her loss to Krejcikova which cost her, although she’s been braver ever since, she’s had a poor few weeks on the clay by her standards and collides with a player in Round 3 on an upward trajectory in Anisimova who I’d back to win, working on the assumption Osaka who she faces in the first round reverts to type and is poor on this surface, despite recent quotes about studying Nadal and Iga and learning to run around her backhand on clay, I don’t buy she’s had the time to adjust in time against this level of player. Bencic recently lost to Amanda (for the 2nd time this year) in the 2nd round in Rome, if that was anything to go by she’d beat her again in round 4 should they meet, Belinda was rushed all match from the baseline and wasn’t allowed any rhythm or momentum, the court was slow but it’s impressive how hard she can hit through it. incidentally she’s at the the optimum height for a WTA Player, 5’9ft. She’s 3rd fav to win this quarter but have to go for the Hutt @ 4.5. AA’s time will come however, should be a strong contender by the time the US Open comes round.
Last quarter Unless the tour decides to have an indoor slam then I can’t see Kontaveit ever making any kind of meaningful run deep into slams, she’s played in nearly 30 of them and made the second week just once and that wasn’t here. Wouldn’t be surprised at all to see her lose to Ajla despite being 1.33. Having said that in theory she is on course to win 3 matches before losing to Gauff. Speaking of Coco Pops she’s projected to meet Muguruza in round 3, Mug has a below 50% win rate this year which is poor given her general level, especially at this stage of the season, recently Garbine has been made to look bad by counter punchers and their boring counter punching tennis, beating herself rather than being beat, she plays the beast from the East in round 1 where she wont be facing that problem, both will have a high winner and high unforced error count and odds suggest it’ll be close. I’d fancy Coco to win, she had a great run on clay last season and only lost to quality opponents this year, she is a player that likes leaping from defence to attack quickly and with her nimble movements she can do that on clay better, Mug done well to win this tournament in the past but it feels and looks like her time has been and gone, Cori will out manoeuvre Muguruza’s mechanical tennis. She’s also feeling confident, ‘Iga being No.1 definitely gives a little extra motivation knowing that she can accomplish it at such a young age in the sport, and maybe you think that you can do it too.’
Sloane Square stephens has fallen so far as a former finalist here that her Round 1 German qualifier opponent ranked over 100 in the world, is clear favourite to win the match, Sloane’s lost all 4 clay court matches this year. The American has clearly lost her hunger, if there was one slam she might be able to conjure up the motivation to play in you’d think it’d be this one, she dominated Halep in that final in 2018 for the first set and a half before freezing when she saw the finish line, I don’t think she’s ever recovered from then. If she did win the first round that’s when the party’s over as she’d face Romanian Warrior Princess in round 2. Azarenka made the semi’s here once in 2013, she hasn’t won more than 3 matches in a row in Paris since, she’s simply not an threat as a player any more and can be written off as damaged goods but will probably continue to have small peaks and quicker falls till she retires. Wouldn’t be a big surprise if Bogdan beats her but it will probably fall to Teichmann in the third. Speaking of which it’s hard to ignore the Swiss in this section but that’s providing she’s recovered from the thigh injury that forced her to retire against Kasatkina in Rome. She says she has and it was more precautionary. One of the most improved player in recent seasons with a lot of big wins on all surfaces and is my pick to win this quarter at 9.5 edging out Gauff in the 4th round. Another footnote, Krejcikova hasn’t played since February, hasn’t played at all on clay, and is coming back from injury in what is probably a desperate attempt to defend those slam winning Ranking points from last year, that is some ask, I can’t see it, shouldn’t be that big a shock given the aforementioned, that she loses to Parry, if not Osorio is a fairly tough match, do not like second guessing injuries but you can only work with the info you have.
Quarter winners
Halep @ 7.5
Badosa @ 4.5
Jabeur @ 4.5
Teichmann @ 9.5
To make the final Badosa at 13 and Jabeur @ 6
Badosa projection: Ferro>Juvan>Kudermetova>Keys>Kasatkina>Halep
Jabeur projection: Linette>Trevisan>Saville>Raducanu>Anisimova>Teichmann
Winner I’m plumping for Jabeur @ 15’s to win the French Open 2022
Logic dictates that Swiatek will win the tournament, I’m going against the odds more so than the player whilst factoring in Halep’s form and obvious adeptness on clay. The last 6 winners of this tournament have been first time French open winners, if Jabuer carries on that trend it will be 7.
Surprises/dark horses
Teichmann to reach the final @ 26’s - if Jabeur doesn’t from the bottom half, that see no reason why Jil can’t. And 50’s to win the tournament
Peculiar Pegula to reach the final at 50’s, you want random but loosely plausible, here you go.
Yes Sorana might not win this tournament, but at least the Eiffel Tower always looks pleased to see her
THE MEN’S GAME
My ATP predictions recently have been quite good, filling out the draw for Rome, my Bracket entry finished 2nd out of 687, but it’s largely dependant on nailing the finalists. This section will be a lot shorter than the women’s and is as the women’s is a much more interesting and less straightforward draw, plus general casual tennis fans know far more about the men’s game than the WTA. And there’s already another thread for it.
There’s also not much to say, Novak will win his quarter and the tournament.
Conflicting views on Nadal, most seem to think he’s too injured to stand a chance but Zverev says "We watched him practice, and all of a sudden his forehand is just 20 miles an hour faster. He moves lighter on his feet. There is something about this court that makes him play 30% better, just being on this court,", even given this insight, I’d still fancy Novak to beat him. Alcaraz done the smart thing and skipped Rome after winning Madrid, but beating Nadal and Novak back to back, as impressive as it is, is still a world away from doing that in the best of 5, it’s like playing two different sports, too early to win a slam especially here. Tsitsipas is everyone’s favourite to reach the final again from the bottom half, but I’m going for ‘legend’ Rublev.
Quarter Winners
Djokovic @ 1.73
Zverev @ 5.5
Ruud @ 4.5
Rublev @ 5.5
[/b]To reach the final[/b]
Rublev @ 13
Winner
Novak @ 3.25
Surprises/dark horses
If anyone were to upset the apple cart in the top half of the draw then Felix the cat would be the best bet at 23’s. to win his quarter
Goffin to win his quarter at 23’s
Kecmanovic to reach the final at 26’s - odds reflect how top heavy the top half is and how open the bottom draw is, something many local women where I grew up can relate to.
Kind Regards.
Swiatek and her extreme ‘extreme’ grip are on a phenomenal run of 28 wins in a row which is the best on tour since Serena’s 34 straight wins 9 years ago in 2013. Those 28 wins have stretched across 5 straight tournaments with four of them being at 1000 level, it’s not just the winning streak that has been impressive but the manner of them, 23 have been in straight sets, barely dropping more than 3 games in each, serving up 12 bagels and 10 breadsticks and all whilst beating high quality opponents along the way. She now heads into the land of frogs and snails munchers at anything but Snails pace as clear and justified favourite, no doubt sitting down for breakfast of a morning in the summer sun with some more pastry in the form of French croissants and some cheese, before exploding onto court against qualifier Tsurenko leaving De Brie all over the court
. Her recent quotes are interesting and give an insight into her newfound consistency, she no longer feels pressure and plays with freedom of mind.Having said all of that, 1.9 to win the tournament outright is ridiculously short odds in a best of 3 format across 7 matches in the women’s game in what is anything but a cake walk draw. Halep in Round 4 is not a gimmie whatsoever and could go either way, she’s not back to her very best but she’s not far off it having won 19 of 25 matches this year, Iga was only about 1.6 to beat her in Indian Wells albeit a different surface but clay is their best surface for both of them. After recently hooking up with Patrick Mouratoglou she cited him as being responsible for her newfound love and motivation for tennis whilst also saying I feel refreshed; I feel more confident; I feel healthy. Finally! I have no problems now, with no injuries. I feel so happy to be back on the court, and I am looking forward to playing each match because I really want to continue to improve, Patrick and the new team has brought me new confidence in myself. They really believe that I am still able to play good tennis, so the goal is to win tournaments and to be as strong as I can be.
The winner of this quarter will be between the two. After given her the big build up I’d rather go with Halep at 7.5 than Swiatek at 1.44, given how close this match would be the disparity in odds makes only 1 backable. This of course assuming Halep beats Ostapancake which she should, Penko being the archetypal, flash in the pan, one slam wonder n’ all.
Moving to the second section it looks like a 2 horse race, I’m not considering Sabatoothlenka who is an average clay courter who’d I’d only give hope to at altitude where she could hit hit as many bombs as she wants given how effective serving can be in places like Madrid several hundred feet above sea level, she won there last year beating a strong field but has never won more than 2 matches in a row at Roland Garros, Paris is about 25m above sea where foot movement is 9 tenths of the law, the other 10th is getting the ball over the net. She’ll probably beat Paquet and Brengle before losing to Poots in boots or Daria. Same goes for the likes of Rybakina despite reaching the QF last year, the first 3 opponents were weak whilst Serena was fit for the knackers yard. Keys has also made a SF and QF but each time the opponents were unimpressive including Osaka who is allergic to red dust. Either of these 2 should be losing to Badosa in Round 4 should they make it that far.
The biggest threat to Badosa making the semi’s is Kasatkina, there is Collins but I couldn’t back Collins with counterfeit as you never know which version of her will show up due to all the injuries she’s had, served several DF’s v Naomi in Miami carrying a neck injury but still went onto play Madrid and barely put up any kind of fight against Andreescu and looked liked she couldn’t wait to be put out of her misery. Red Flag. Kasatkina has a poor record here but given the fairly kind draw she has whilst picking up some good clay court wins v Sakkari, Badosa herself and Teichmann, actual half decent players on this surface, she stands every chance of reaching the semi, also pushed Jabeur to the wire in her Rome Semi final, Jabeur who’s won over 80% of her clay matches in the last 2 years (30/37). Badosa is favourite to win this part of the draw and I’d have to go with that @ 4.5 Daria is 8’s. Lame odds but it is what it is. Paula plays wildcard Ferro first round, Juvan probably 2nd, who’s had a long week in Strasbourg which isn’t ideal preparation, then Kudermetova in Round 3 who’d be the first potential banana skin, she thrashed her in Madrid but lost to her in Charleston last year. Footnote, Garcia hasn’t played since March and is probably coming for a R1 pay check, she pulled out of Strasbourg saying it was too early to compete. Townsend is favourite and has been racking up wins on the ITF.
I saw the sporting life tipping Martic at 100 as a dark horse, although she does have clay pedigree, that was some time ago and she’s the wrong side of 30, there’s dark horses then there’s invisible one’s.
Section number 3, this looks like the most interesting and tightest section with Jabeur the Hutt deserved favourite and a lot of people’s second choice to win the tournament. Her projected quarter draw is Linette>Trevisan>Gavrilova>Raducanu>Bencic/Anisimova/Sakkari, the first 3 matches should be a box ticking exercise before it starts to get interesting, Gavrilova had 1 good year on clay 5 years ago but in is just a hard court player in essence. Lost all 3 clay matches this year to Friedsam, Haddad-Maia and Pottypova, yes they were close, but they are all what is known in the trade, as pigeons. In the last 4 tournaments Ons has been to the final 3 times winning Madrid whilst being odds against v Halep and Bencic, 17 from 20 wins in total on clay following on from 13 from 17 wins on the same surface last year, I don’t think she’s a bad match up for Swiatek who beat her in the Rome finals, she just looked liked just ran out of gas at the time which goes against what she’s recently said about newfound fitness regime being the biggest reason for consistency, work in progress. She comes into Paris as the former French Open junior Champions with extra motivation "The French Open has a great story with Tunisian people because it's really the Grand Slam that everybody follows, "I know there are a lot of French-Tunisians who live in Paris, so it's going to be a great tournament for me.", "Of course now I have played a lot of great matches on clay. I have more confidence in myself. So yeah, the goal is to go as far as I can in the French Open.. I can’t see her not getting to at least 4 to state the obvious.
Raducanu yesterday said she’s free of injuries that ‘It feels good to be able to move freely and just like run around. You know, it's quite fun’ and that 'she was ‘free to play all the shots’. That may be true whilst practicing but in recent months she’s had back and foot problems and inadvertently admitted she’s not as strong as she could be on clay but expects to be so in a few years, injuries, lack of clay experience and physicality on this surface all point to it being too early to make an impact this year, think this tournament will be filed under ‘a good experience’, every chance of winning Wimbledon however but I’ll get to that next month. Practicing and playing real matches are two different things. Think she can get to round 4 v Jabba at best.
Kerber has been knocked out at the French in Round 1 in 5 of the last 6 years, at her age and ranking I don’t know why she bothered to play Strasbourg, she’d had been better of resting for the week, her Round 1 opponent is Frech who’s only ever recorded 1 top 50 win on clay and that was recently against Big Foot Petra who like Kerber is also just a normal player outside of the hard and grass. Her race will be done early.
Sakkari, Anisimova, Andreescu and Bencic are the four players who will fight it out to play Ons in Round 4, despite Amanda and Bianca’s ranking they are all quality wise top 15 players, yet 3 of them will be out in the first week. The Greek has the most pressure having to defend 780 points from last year whereas the other 3 have a free swing after being knocked out in either the first or second round. I don’t think Andreescu has played enough high level matches, or matches in general this year, to make an impression here and will probably lose to Bencic in round 2 who’s much more oven ready. Sakkari learnt after last years semi loss to be more aggressive in big match points after admittedly being passive in her loss to Krejcikova which cost her, although she’s been braver ever since, she’s had a poor few weeks on the clay by her standards and collides with a player in Round 3 on an upward trajectory in Anisimova who I’d back to win, working on the assumption Osaka who she faces in the first round reverts to type and is poor on this surface, despite recent quotes about studying Nadal and Iga and learning to run around her backhand on clay, I don’t buy she’s had the time to adjust in time against this level of player. Bencic recently lost to Amanda (for the 2nd time this year) in the 2nd round in Rome, if that was anything to go by she’d beat her again in round 4 should they meet, Belinda was rushed all match from the baseline and wasn’t allowed any rhythm or momentum, the court was slow but it’s impressive how hard she can hit through it. incidentally she’s at the the optimum height for a WTA Player, 5’9ft. She’s 3rd fav to win this quarter but have to go for the Hutt @ 4.5. AA’s time will come however, should be a strong contender by the time the US Open comes round.
Last quarter Unless the tour decides to have an indoor slam then I can’t see Kontaveit ever making any kind of meaningful run deep into slams, she’s played in nearly 30 of them and made the second week just once and that wasn’t here. Wouldn’t be surprised at all to see her lose to Ajla despite being 1.33. Having said that in theory she is on course to win 3 matches before losing to Gauff. Speaking of Coco Pops she’s projected to meet Muguruza in round 3, Mug has a below 50% win rate this year which is poor given her general level, especially at this stage of the season, recently Garbine has been made to look bad by counter punchers and their boring counter punching tennis, beating herself rather than being beat, she plays the beast from the East in round 1 where she wont be facing that problem, both will have a high winner and high unforced error count and odds suggest it’ll be close. I’d fancy Coco to win, she had a great run on clay last season and only lost to quality opponents this year, she is a player that likes leaping from defence to attack quickly and with her nimble movements she can do that on clay better, Mug done well to win this tournament in the past but it feels and looks like her time has been and gone, Cori will out manoeuvre Muguruza’s mechanical tennis. She’s also feeling confident, ‘Iga being No.1 definitely gives a little extra motivation knowing that she can accomplish it at such a young age in the sport, and maybe you think that you can do it too.’
Sloane Square stephens has fallen so far as a former finalist here that her Round 1 German qualifier opponent ranked over 100 in the world, is clear favourite to win the match, Sloane’s lost all 4 clay court matches this year. The American has clearly lost her hunger, if there was one slam she might be able to conjure up the motivation to play in you’d think it’d be this one, she dominated Halep in that final in 2018 for the first set and a half before freezing when she saw the finish line, I don’t think she’s ever recovered from then. If she did win the first round that’s when the party’s over as she’d face Romanian Warrior Princess in round 2. Azarenka made the semi’s here once in 2013, she hasn’t won more than 3 matches in a row in Paris since, she’s simply not an threat as a player any more and can be written off as damaged goods but will probably continue to have small peaks and quicker falls till she retires. Wouldn’t be a big surprise if Bogdan beats her but it will probably fall to Teichmann in the third. Speaking of which it’s hard to ignore the Swiss in this section but that’s providing she’s recovered from the thigh injury that forced her to retire against Kasatkina in Rome. She says she has and it was more precautionary. One of the most improved player in recent seasons with a lot of big wins on all surfaces and is my pick to win this quarter at 9.5 edging out Gauff in the 4th round. Another footnote, Krejcikova hasn’t played since February, hasn’t played at all on clay, and is coming back from injury in what is probably a desperate attempt to defend those slam winning Ranking points from last year, that is some ask, I can’t see it, shouldn’t be that big a shock given the aforementioned, that she loses to Parry, if not Osorio is a fairly tough match, do not like second guessing injuries but you can only work with the info you have.
Quarter winners
Halep @ 7.5
Badosa @ 4.5
Jabeur @ 4.5
Teichmann @ 9.5
To make the final Badosa at 13 and Jabeur @ 6
Badosa projection: Ferro>Juvan>Kudermetova>Keys>Kasatkina>Halep
Jabeur projection: Linette>Trevisan>Saville>Raducanu>Anisimova>Teichmann
Winner I’m plumping for Jabeur @ 15’s to win the French Open 2022
Logic dictates that Swiatek will win the tournament, I’m going against the odds more so than the player whilst factoring in Halep’s form and obvious adeptness on clay. The last 6 winners of this tournament have been first time French open winners, if Jabuer carries on that trend it will be 7.
Surprises/dark horses
Teichmann to reach the final @ 26’s - if Jabeur doesn’t from the bottom half, that see no reason why Jil can’t. And 50’s to win the tournament
Peculiar Pegula to reach the final at 50’s, you want random but loosely plausible, here you go.
Yes Sorana might not win this tournament, but at least the Eiffel Tower always looks pleased to see her
THE MEN’S GAME
My ATP predictions recently have been quite good, filling out the draw for Rome, my Bracket entry finished 2nd out of 687, but it’s largely dependant on nailing the finalists. This section will be a lot shorter than the women’s and is as the women’s is a much more interesting and less straightforward draw, plus general casual tennis fans know far more about the men’s game than the WTA. And there’s already another thread for it.
There’s also not much to say, Novak will win his quarter and the tournament.
Conflicting views on Nadal, most seem to think he’s too injured to stand a chance but Zverev says "We watched him practice, and all of a sudden his forehand is just 20 miles an hour faster. He moves lighter on his feet. There is something about this court that makes him play 30% better, just being on this court,", even given this insight, I’d still fancy Novak to beat him. Alcaraz done the smart thing and skipped Rome after winning Madrid, but beating Nadal and Novak back to back, as impressive as it is, is still a world away from doing that in the best of 5, it’s like playing two different sports, too early to win a slam especially here. Tsitsipas is everyone’s favourite to reach the final again from the bottom half, but I’m going for ‘legend’ Rublev.
Quarter Winners
Djokovic @ 1.73
Zverev @ 5.5
Ruud @ 4.5
Rublev @ 5.5
[/b]To reach the final[/b]
Rublev @ 13
Winner
Novak @ 3.25
Surprises/dark horses
If anyone were to upset the apple cart in the top half of the draw then Felix the cat would be the best bet at 23’s. to win his quarter
Goffin to win his quarter at 23’s
Kecmanovic to reach the final at 26’s - odds reflect how top heavy the top half is and how open the bottom draw is, something many local women where I grew up can relate to.
Kind Regards.
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my 15/1 winner is out in Round 1, form means nothing in wta 
Badosa it is then
Badosa it is then
You've personalised the thread title so I won't put a bunch of picks here
you can post them all, Mi Casa Es Su Casa. Very colourful, succinct and descriptive breakdown of world events there whilst intertwining with the modern day sporting landscape, incidentally, if Putin could aim one of those warheads towards White Hart Lane. it'd be much appreciated.
In all seriousness I was tooing and frooing between Jabeur or Badosa as an alternative to Iga, I went with the player on the softer side of the draw, big mistake, even now however it's still not a 'what was you doing moment', Linette must of just raised her game, I was actually watching trading the Sloane match at the time, I'd be amazed if SoranaGoat doesn't beat her, she's there for the taking. I was however looking at the score in the Jabba match and points were going by extremely quickly, didn't seem to be many rallies idk.
Wouldn't surprised me massively if Rus and Bonaventure were to win tomorrow, but don't quote me on it, unless it wins - plain emoji.
you can post them all, Mi Casa Es Su Casa. Very colourful, succinct and descriptive breakdown of world events there whilst intertwining with the modern day sporting landscape, incidentally, if Putin could aim one of those warheads towards White Hart Lane. it'd be much appreciated.
In all seriousness I was tooing and frooing between Jabeur or Badosa as an alternative to Iga, I went with the player on the softer side of the draw, big mistake, even now however it's still not a 'what was you doing moment', Linette must of just raised her game, I was actually watching trading the Sloane match at the time, I'd be amazed if SoranaGoat doesn't beat her, she's there for the taking. I was however looking at the score in the Jabba match and points were going by extremely quickly, didn't seem to be many rallies idk.
Wouldn't surprised me massively if Rus and Bonaventure were to win tomorrow, but don't quote me on it, unless it wins - plain emoji.
That's a great write-up on the womens' tournament, mesmerised. It must have taken a lot of time and effort to write that. So, well done!
thanks des
I'll use this thread as a musings thread til the final
whilst my main women's pick belly flopped, it does however mean I need to reassess Raducanu journey in this tournament considering I had Ons going all the way, which meant beating Emma in Round 4, now Jabba is out it opens up the draw for her, (or maybe I just overestimated Jabeur) and others especially considering based on today she put the injury concerns to bed, Noskova however lost confidence in her double handed backhand down the line shots in the 3rd set when the pressure was on which helped, but still, there's no reason why ER can't know go all the way to the final. The only real question mark is whether adrenaline and work rate can overcome lack of physicality and experience on these courts. Sasnovich>Kerber>Gavrilova?>Anisimova/Teichmann is the route to the final, it's doable. Incidentally Noskova is going to be a top player, looks a lot older than 17, this is a potential future slam rivalry.
Quite a few of my mini predictions have come to pass on Kontaveit, Osaka, Krejcikova and Muguruza
[x]Another footnote, Krejcikova hasn’t played since February, hasn’t played at all on clay, and is coming back from injury in what is probably a desperate attempt to defend those slam winning Ranking points from last year, that is some ask, I can’t see it, shouldn’t be that big a shock given the aforementioned, that she loses to Parry,
[x] Unless the tour decides to have an indoor slam then I can’t see Kontaveit ever making any kind of meaningful run deep into slams, she’s played in nearly 30 of them and made the second week just once and that wasn’t here. Wouldn’t be surprised at all to see her lose to Ajla despite being 1.33.
[x]on an upward trajectory in Anisimova who I’d back to win, working on the assumption Osaka who she faces in the first round reverts to type and is poor on this surface, despite recent quotes about studying Nadal and Iga and learning to run around her backhand on clay, I don’t buy she’s had the time to adjust in time against this level of player.
[x] Mug done well to win this tournament in the past but it feels and looks like her time has been and gone
Watched the entirety of the Parry/Babora match, there’s no doubt at all a fit Krejcikova would have won in straights, Parry looked county level in the first set and was probably overcome with stage fright on the biggest courts she’s ever been on, was only allowed back into the match when Bathroom Break Babora’s level completely dropped off a cliff, she also seemed to be affected by the crowd booing her in 2nd and 3rd after spending nearly 10 minutes changing kit after the first.
Trivia, Parry’s is one of 3 players in the top 100 with a one handed backhand, who are the other two?…..
I'll use this thread as a musings thread til the final
whilst my main women's pick belly flopped, it does however mean I need to reassess Raducanu journey in this tournament considering I had Ons going all the way, which meant beating Emma in Round 4, now Jabba is out it opens up the draw for her, (or maybe I just overestimated Jabeur) and others especially considering based on today she put the injury concerns to bed, Noskova however lost confidence in her double handed backhand down the line shots in the 3rd set when the pressure was on which helped, but still, there's no reason why ER can't know go all the way to the final. The only real question mark is whether adrenaline and work rate can overcome lack of physicality and experience on these courts. Sasnovich>Kerber>Gavrilova?>Anisimova/Teichmann is the route to the final, it's doable. Incidentally Noskova is going to be a top player, looks a lot older than 17, this is a potential future slam rivalry.
Quite a few of my mini predictions have come to pass on Kontaveit, Osaka, Krejcikova and Muguruza
[x]Another footnote, Krejcikova hasn’t played since February, hasn’t played at all on clay, and is coming back from injury in what is probably a desperate attempt to defend those slam winning Ranking points from last year, that is some ask, I can’t see it, shouldn’t be that big a shock given the aforementioned, that she loses to Parry,
[x] Unless the tour decides to have an indoor slam then I can’t see Kontaveit ever making any kind of meaningful run deep into slams, she’s played in nearly 30 of them and made the second week just once and that wasn’t here. Wouldn’t be surprised at all to see her lose to Ajla despite being 1.33.
[x]on an upward trajectory in Anisimova who I’d back to win, working on the assumption Osaka who she faces in the first round reverts to type and is poor on this surface, despite recent quotes about studying Nadal and Iga and learning to run around her backhand on clay, I don’t buy she’s had the time to adjust in time against this level of player.
[x] Mug done well to win this tournament in the past but it feels and looks like her time has been and gone
Watched the entirety of the Parry/Babora match, there’s no doubt at all a fit Krejcikova would have won in straights, Parry looked county level in the first set and was probably overcome with stage fright on the biggest courts she’s ever been on, was only allowed back into the match when Bathroom Break Babora’s level completely dropped off a cliff, she also seemed to be affected by the crowd booing her in 2nd and 3rd after spending nearly 10 minutes changing kit after the first.
Trivia, Parry’s is one of 3 players in the top 100 with a one handed backhand, who are the other two?…..
bathroom break was obv booed after she'd lost the 2nd set, not first
just looked at the current rankings, I think Parry is actually one of only 2 players in the top 100 with one handed back hands, the other I was thinking of was Maria, who is just outside in 105th, so it's one other.
just looked at the current rankings, I think Parry is actually one of only 2 players in the top 100 with one handed back hands, the other I was thinking of was Maria, who is just outside in 105th, so it's one other.
more musings
[x] I don’t think Andreescu has played enough high level matches, or matches in general this year, to make an impression here and will probably lose to Bencic in round 2 who’s much more oven ready.
I'd be amazed if SoranaGoat doesn't beat her, she's there for the taking
Well I got that wrong
A shame Emma lost to granny Sasnovich who'll no doubt suffer from big player syndrome and lose to Kerber in the next match. Maybe she was spent after the Noskova match idk, have much higher expectations of her at Wimbledon and there are no excuses there. There was here with extremely limited clay experience and recent back problems.
Alcatrash may have won today but how much has that taken out of him given he's never played a 5 setter on clay before, it bodes well for my Zverev to win his quarter prediction, Khachanov also now stands a much better chance. Weird that he is the same height as Nadal yet he looks a good 2-3 inches shorter.
still kicking myself I went with the Tunisian munchkin instead of Paula if Sharapova was a turtle she'd look like me, Badosa, as an alternative to the boring Swiatek pick.
Kind Regards.
[x] I don’t think Andreescu has played enough high level matches, or matches in general this year, to make an impression here and will probably lose to Bencic in round 2 who’s much more oven ready.
I'd be amazed if SoranaGoat doesn't beat her, she's there for the taking
Well I got that wrong
A shame Emma lost to granny Sasnovich who'll no doubt suffer from big player syndrome and lose to Kerber in the next match. Maybe she was spent after the Noskova match idk, have much higher expectations of her at Wimbledon and there are no excuses there. There was here with extremely limited clay experience and recent back problems.
Alcatrash may have won today but how much has that taken out of him given he's never played a 5 setter on clay before, it bodes well for my Zverev to win his quarter prediction, Khachanov also now stands a much better chance. Weird that he is the same height as Nadal yet he looks a good 2-3 inches shorter.
still kicking myself I went with the Tunisian munchkin instead of Paula if Sharapova was a turtle she'd look like me, Badosa, as an alternative to the boring Swiatek pick.
Kind Regards.
Volatility has indeed been the name of the game.
Iga's quarter has opened up like a motorway on Boxing day. Your dark horse J-Peg needed quite a few chances to get over the line but she's probably the only live threat left for Iga in that quarter. Because of her backstory and external interests there's something inpenetrable about her real motivations for risking ongoing injury down in the dirt of competitive sport but the net result is she is a somewhat unique player that is unlikely to be phased by Iga who is otherwise moving into beating players before they step on court territory.
Right now it does look like you were on the money about the second Quarter with Badosa and Kasatkina lining up to scrap that one out. Hard to see past those two.
In Quarter 3 Leylah seems to have clicked into gear, her last match maintaining intensity (at last) and getting the job done without her trademark post 8 games 'Leylah crash', and I fancy her to shock Bencic and hopefully then AA. The really interesting figure in that quarter though is Saville (currently a massive 470s) who is quietly putting the pieces together on court while voicing her thoughts on the Russia Ukraine conflict which obviously has relevance to her and seems to be keeping her perspective a bit wider than others in 'the bubble'.
Your other dark horse Teichmann is looking right on the money in the last quarter. I do like Parry who despite being completely new to this level looked at lot more at home in the second round. She's talked about how she purposely played most of last year on clay with the objective of making herself a force on the surface. She's essentially designed herself as a specialist weapon for her own home slam. At round about 200s still, stranger things have happened.
Iga's quarter has opened up like a motorway on Boxing day. Your dark horse J-Peg needed quite a few chances to get over the line but she's probably the only live threat left for Iga in that quarter. Because of her backstory and external interests there's something inpenetrable about her real motivations for risking ongoing injury down in the dirt of competitive sport but the net result is she is a somewhat unique player that is unlikely to be phased by Iga who is otherwise moving into beating players before they step on court territory.
Right now it does look like you were on the money about the second Quarter with Badosa and Kasatkina lining up to scrap that one out. Hard to see past those two.
In Quarter 3 Leylah seems to have clicked into gear, her last match maintaining intensity (at last) and getting the job done without her trademark post 8 games 'Leylah crash', and I fancy her to shock Bencic and hopefully then AA. The really interesting figure in that quarter though is Saville (currently a massive 470s) who is quietly putting the pieces together on court while voicing her thoughts on the Russia Ukraine conflict which obviously has relevance to her and seems to be keeping her perspective a bit wider than others in 'the bubble'.
Your other dark horse Teichmann is looking right on the money in the last quarter. I do like Parry who despite being completely new to this level looked at lot more at home in the second round. She's talked about how she purposely played most of last year on clay with the objective of making herself a force on the surface. She's essentially designed herself as a specialist weapon for her own home slam. At round about 200s still, stranger things have happened.
but I couldn’t back Collins with counterfeit as you never know which version of her will show up due to all the injuries she’s had
And sadly you were right about Run DRC. It's a shame for the tour because she would be super marketable and at her best it's great watching her think through and turn around matches.
Felix looking good, said some thoughtful things about JWT. Carlos already saying he's tired, how does he get through best of 5s with Korda, Norrie then two of the new Big 3 in a row just to get to the final.
And sadly you were right about Run DRC. It's a shame for the tour because she would be super marketable and at her best it's great watching her think through and turn around matches.
Felix looking good, said some thoughtful things about JWT. Carlos already saying he's tired, how does he get through best of 5s with Korda, Norrie then two of the new Big 3 in a row just to get to the final.
yeah unfortunately for her she's made of bamboo held together with sticky tape, though some of her physical problems has obviously a bit personal than that.
My second of 8 Quarter picks is down, Halep bombed out with breathing problems, Red carpet laid to the Quarter final for Swiatek as she's not losing to Cornetto or Ostapancake, Zheng will succumb to I've just beaten a big player syndrome and lose to whoever between one of the aforementioned.
I've seen both Tsitispas matches now (watching Kolar match now), he's no where he's best level and if he scraps through this match, either Gaston or Rune will be another struggle, I picked Ruud to beat him in my bracket draw before the tournament but could be a round early, also never seen him before try and gee up the crowd to get them on his side, looks as desperate as Novak for support, maybe he's carrying an injury. Imagine a full crowd on his back if it's Gaston.
I think Bencic will beat Leyla in straights but she still has fearlessness of youth and Belinda is prone to crumbling, but can't see it here. Her and Gavrilova are two players I never even thought about pre tournament.
Had Kecmanovic beating Medvedev pre draw but you wonder if Med's using this us against the world mentality and feeling hard done by with Wimbledon, as motivation, the sort of motivation you could never conjure up organically, which means I may have overlooked him, he is in general however, an ordinary clay court player.
My second of 8 Quarter picks is down, Halep bombed out with breathing problems, Red carpet laid to the Quarter final for Swiatek as she's not losing to Cornetto or Ostapancake, Zheng will succumb to I've just beaten a big player syndrome and lose to whoever between one of the aforementioned.
I've seen both Tsitispas matches now (watching Kolar match now), he's no where he's best level and if he scraps through this match, either Gaston or Rune will be another struggle, I picked Ruud to beat him in my bracket draw before the tournament but could be a round early, also never seen him before try and gee up the crowd to get them on his side, looks as desperate as Novak for support, maybe he's carrying an injury. Imagine a full crowd on his back if it's Gaston.
I think Bencic will beat Leyla in straights but she still has fearlessness of youth and Belinda is prone to crumbling, but can't see it here. Her and Gavrilova are two players I never even thought about pre tournament.
Had Kecmanovic beating Medvedev pre draw but you wonder if Med's using this us against the world mentality and feeling hard done by with Wimbledon, as motivation, the sort of motivation you could never conjure up organically, which means I may have overlooked him, he is in general however, an ordinary clay court player.
more musings
Hypelep said she suffered a panic attack on court, somebody in the crowd probably informed her mesmerised tipped her to beat Swiatek in the QF and it all got too much for her.
I've also only just realised after 5 whole days, that Tim, Babs and Mats are not in the same room
Babs was in Australia court side for the Aussie open giving reports back to the cube in London but why are they still in London, Paris is just across the water, cost cutting by Eurosport. I only clocked on when Halep sounded like a Dalek from afar and wasn't quite looking at Schett.
Again don't quote me on it if it loses only if it wins as that's how we roll on the betfair forum, but Korda looks HUGE odds to beat Alcatrash at 4/1, beat him in Monte Carlo as well. Don't want to keep peddling the Carlos is tired line, but he looks tired.
Hypelep said she suffered a panic attack on court, somebody in the crowd probably informed her mesmerised tipped her to beat Swiatek in the QF and it all got too much for her.
I've also only just realised after 5 whole days, that Tim, Babs and Mats are not in the same room
Babs was in Australia court side for the Aussie open giving reports back to the cube in London but why are they still in London, Paris is just across the water, cost cutting by Eurosport. I only clocked on when Halep sounded like a Dalek from afar and wasn't quite looking at Schett.
Again don't quote me on it if it loses only if it wins as that's how we roll on the betfair forum, but Korda looks HUGE odds to beat Alcatrash at 4/1, beat him in Monte Carlo as well. Don't want to keep peddling the Carlos is tired line, but he looks tired.
Korda proving to be light work for tired not tired Alcatrash.
Well done JM on Leyla pick. Peanut head is one of these players I don't like to see win but she has some steel
and quote on quote, if you back her she will always fight for your money.
Dark horse Felix the cat still going strong but Nadal is up next. If he were to get through him and Novak at the French it'd be the greatest achievement ever in tennis imo.
Fellow Dark horse Teichmann won the 3rd longest match of the year, I think, two very winnable matches next in Sloane Ranger then Gauff/Mertens, a days rest should negate the tiredness for Jil. Long matches much more
prevalent in ATP.
Peculiar Pegula has a great chance to have a face off with Swiatek to win the first section, Zidane followed by Begu.
I was on the Dmitrov-Schwartzman match, Grigor seriously poor, looked liked he lacked so much confidence and is way too submissive, closer to the truth is probably the fact court conditions helped Diego massively, only explanation from going to thrashing him in Madrid in faster conditions with lighter travelling balls to being thrashed here with slow and heavy balls which helps the little man. Weird how Schwartzman was around 1.6 to beat him in Madrid yet the odds were reversed for this match esp given the above. It's part of the reason why Tsitsipas has struggled so far, playing night matches in slower.colder conditions makes it harder for bigger hitting players. Nadal's requests to not be last on courts are generally accepted, he always makes sure he has the tournament tailored to his liking, also has the ability to request certain umpires on not on his matches, amongst other things I can't mention for legal reasons.
If I were a tennis coach I'd be given a very simple tactic to players facing Iga, just keep the ball away from her forehand as much as possible, launch as many SABR attacks as you can, play closer to the next with some serve and volley shots and try drop shotting your way through the match, you're not beating her from the back of the court no matter how hard you hit, it's their only hope.
Golubic btw was the only other player in the top 100 that hits a 1 handed backhand, took me a good while to sift though the avalanche of answers. I wonder if anyone got my de brie joke, I wonder how many even read that far. Kind Regards.
Well done JM on Leyla pick. Peanut head is one of these players I don't like to see win but she has some steel
and quote on quote, if you back her she will always fight for your money.
Dark horse Felix the cat still going strong but Nadal is up next. If he were to get through him and Novak at the French it'd be the greatest achievement ever in tennis imo.
Fellow Dark horse Teichmann won the 3rd longest match of the year, I think, two very winnable matches next in Sloane Ranger then Gauff/Mertens, a days rest should negate the tiredness for Jil. Long matches much more
prevalent in ATP.
Peculiar Pegula has a great chance to have a face off with Swiatek to win the first section, Zidane followed by Begu.
I was on the Dmitrov-Schwartzman match, Grigor seriously poor, looked liked he lacked so much confidence and is way too submissive, closer to the truth is probably the fact court conditions helped Diego massively, only explanation from going to thrashing him in Madrid in faster conditions with lighter travelling balls to being thrashed here with slow and heavy balls which helps the little man. Weird how Schwartzman was around 1.6 to beat him in Madrid yet the odds were reversed for this match esp given the above. It's part of the reason why Tsitsipas has struggled so far, playing night matches in slower.colder conditions makes it harder for bigger hitting players. Nadal's requests to not be last on courts are generally accepted, he always makes sure he has the tournament tailored to his liking, also has the ability to request certain umpires on not on his matches, amongst other things I can't mention for legal reasons.
If I were a tennis coach I'd be given a very simple tactic to players facing Iga, just keep the ball away from her forehand as much as possible, launch as many SABR attacks as you can, play closer to the next with some serve and volley shots and try drop shotting your way through the match, you're not beating her from the back of the court no matter how hard you hit, it's their only hope.
Golubic btw was the only other player in the top 100 that hits a 1 handed backhand, took me a good while to sift though the avalanche of answers. I wonder if anyone got my de brie joke, I wonder how many even read that far. Kind Regards.
Give Tsitsipas a bit of heat, sun, quicker balls in an earlier slot and you'll get the best out of him in contrast to the late night matches he's been forced to play
Another good day for Swiatek with Badosa pulling out injured, that's the 3rd of my women's quarter picks down, one had a panic attack and the other throwing in the towel. Might as well give the title to Iga now unless my rank outside pick Pegula can pull off a shock. Teichmann winning the tournament would make up for it all. Men's quarters picks all hanging on though Ruud's 50/50 atm, Dark horses all but gone unless Felix pulls off a massive shocker in beating Nadal.
Another good day for Swiatek with Badosa pulling out injured, that's the 3rd of my women's quarter picks down, one had a panic attack and the other throwing in the towel. Might as well give the title to Iga now unless my rank outside pick Pegula can pull off a shock. Teichmann winning the tournament would make up for it all. Men's quarters picks all hanging on though Ruud's 50/50 atm, Dark horses all but gone unless Felix pulls off a massive shocker in beating Nadal.
The thing is..
Every fiber in my being is telling me that Iga's outright price is utter insanity now. The fact that her outright price came out from last might despite today's Volatility (Badosa and Sabalenka crashing out to leave nobody else in the Top 10 except Iga making Week 2!!!) reflected a moment of market sobriety as her forehand looked vulnerable (or at least 'human') against Kovinic who started running off games but ultimately mugged what should have been at least a set win.
But no the sobriety is over and she's back into 1.45. We're not even in the second week.
Her run of matches to even get to the final is a storming Zheng, a suddenly reliable Pegula, a Kasatkina that's peaking.
I'm sorry but the devil on my shoulder is screaming that she's going down in one of these matches.
She's not even getting to the final.
There's an ambitious banana skin in that run of matches. A flashing red light over a patch of thin ice.
On the subject of Kasatkina, she'll hope for 'just beat a big player syndrome' from Giorgi who appears to be properly thawing out from the wrist injury that had frozen her threat in 2022. When everything clicks into focus like today, flashing forehands, brutal returns, teasing dropshots, she's a force of nature. In the bottom half Trevisan and Gauff should get to the quarters. Even Sloane seems to have put her wedding pictures away and suddenly looks serious about tennis for the first time in a couple of years.
There's brooding ambition and sudden surges in form popping up all over the draw.
And a player that has won one slam is 1.45.
This is the Emperor's New Clothes.
Every fiber in my being is telling me that Iga's outright price is utter insanity now. The fact that her outright price came out from last might despite today's Volatility (Badosa and Sabalenka crashing out to leave nobody else in the Top 10 except Iga making Week 2!!!) reflected a moment of market sobriety as her forehand looked vulnerable (or at least 'human') against Kovinic who started running off games but ultimately mugged what should have been at least a set win.
But no the sobriety is over and she's back into 1.45. We're not even in the second week.
Her run of matches to even get to the final is a storming Zheng, a suddenly reliable Pegula, a Kasatkina that's peaking.
I'm sorry but the devil on my shoulder is screaming that she's going down in one of these matches.
She's not even getting to the final.
There's an ambitious banana skin in that run of matches. A flashing red light over a patch of thin ice.
On the subject of Kasatkina, she'll hope for 'just beat a big player syndrome' from Giorgi who appears to be properly thawing out from the wrist injury that had frozen her threat in 2022. When everything clicks into focus like today, flashing forehands, brutal returns, teasing dropshots, she's a force of nature. In the bottom half Trevisan and Gauff should get to the quarters. Even Sloane seems to have put her wedding pictures away and suddenly looks serious about tennis for the first time in a couple of years.
There's brooding ambition and sudden surges in form popping up all over the draw.
And a player that has won one slam is 1.45.
This is the Emperor's New Clothes.
Oh and perk about your dark horses! 3 out of 5 are going strong and the two girls can get to the semis imo.
Felix used up most of his nine lives against Varillas in the first round but coming so close so early to the exit door has freed him up since. What Emma calls a 'free run'. He's definitely got a crack at 6.8 to take down a Nadal that only DAYS ago was being counted out. The joker may be another story.
Felix used up most of his nine lives against Varillas in the first round but coming so close so early to the exit door has freed him up since. What Emma calls a 'free run'. He's definitely got a crack at 6.8 to take down a Nadal that only DAYS ago was being counted out. The joker may be another story.
Nadal's at the football tonight, started late, lucky for him he's 3rd up on court tomorrow in the men's, he probably requested that, I think Felix will challenge for the Wimbledon title but there is a Round 4 Soderling vibe about tomorrow's match. Love how Soft hands Kasatkina is chugging along almost unnoticed, Giorgi's not only is a hard clean hitter she's also very quick which is a rare combo, but those attributes against one dimensional Saba is one thing.... Daria is a thinking man's tennis player and unless you're good at playing tennis chess, you're not going to beat her, she should see of Camilla imo. Kudermetova is a much bigger challenge. 've given up predicting Sloane's demise, she keeps winning.
Women's matches much more interesting tomorrow - all 4 men's fav's are sub 1.1
Women's matches much more interesting tomorrow - all 4 men's fav's are sub 1.1
and I fancy her to shock Bencic and hopefully then AA.
And gets it done, at over 3s for Bencic and about 2.85 for Amanda. Particularly impressive today as she was basically playing a singles match against a doubles team (Amanda and her coach). Leylah really owns Amanda mentally at this point. She stays within herself which has .. worked before in WTA(!) and is why I keep banging on about her as a future Number 1. Whereas Bencic for example telegraphs exactly where her head is at as soon as she starts constantly interacting with her box. I liked seeing Leylah moving in and cutting Amanda off with champagne volleying and creating that sense of doubt and unpredictability. She's relearning things that helped her a lot in New York (but like Emma she's had to process so much noise and expectation in the months since).
But that's all I'll say about Leylah in this tournament because I want her to do well! Ahem.
Morning going well otherwise, Trevisan won in straights was over evens pre-match. Did Rafa get into the Real Madrid celebrations? Will Felix feel he was taking a bit of a liberty. Btw if Felix does win your quarter bet I was thinking about it and it would be the best winning tip I've ever seen on here in the circumstances. No pressure.
And gets it done, at over 3s for Bencic and about 2.85 for Amanda. Particularly impressive today as she was basically playing a singles match against a doubles team (Amanda and her coach). Leylah really owns Amanda mentally at this point. She stays within herself which has .. worked before in WTA(!) and is why I keep banging on about her as a future Number 1. Whereas Bencic for example telegraphs exactly where her head is at as soon as she starts constantly interacting with her box. I liked seeing Leylah moving in and cutting Amanda off with champagne volleying and creating that sense of doubt and unpredictability. She's relearning things that helped her a lot in New York (but like Emma she's had to process so much noise and expectation in the months since).
But that's all I'll say about Leylah in this tournament because I want her to do well! Ahem.
Morning going well otherwise, Trevisan won in straights was over evens pre-match. Did Rafa get into the Real Madrid celebrations? Will Felix feel he was taking a bit of a liberty. Btw if Felix does win your quarter bet I was thinking about it and it would be the best winning tip I've ever seen on here in the circumstances. No pressure.
What's your current take on Sinner btw. I know you weren't a fan but he's quietly motoring along here.
He seems to inspire some real believers. I'm struggling to buy into him.
He seems to inspire some real believers. I'm struggling to buy into him.
Sinner's improved in recent times in particular his serve which used to be weak, hits big on both flanks and pulled off some good drops shots in this tournament, mentally he's streets ahead of the likes of Zverev and Kyrgios, but he's overrated as a talent which is what I rally against, all these tennis journos/analysts have him as the second coming, but it's all apart of pushing this NextGen thing, he's not a special talent, more a refine version of Berdych which means he may nick a slam during his career, think he said he's having knee issues so may pull out here idk. Gives off strong flat track bully vibes.
I'm going to however start taking Fernandez seriously, I didn't even mention her in the opening post and she's the US Open runner up, I don't why I overlook her, I'm usually drawn to lefties, think it was the surface, I don't ever remember her beating a top 20 player on clay, if she did I must of missed it, but now has a great chance to get to the final, especially for the shrewdies that backed her.
If Felix beats Nadal and Novak it'll be one of the greatest achievements in sport, 23's was the best price at the time, which just goes to show you how poor outright markets like this can be, he's 6/1 to beat Nadal alone, Novak would be around 1.2 as well.
I'm going to however start taking Fernandez seriously, I didn't even mention her in the opening post and she's the US Open runner up, I don't why I overlook her, I'm usually drawn to lefties, think it was the surface, I don't ever remember her beating a top 20 player on clay, if she did I must of missed it, but now has a great chance to get to the final, especially for the shrewdies that backed her.
If Felix beats Nadal and Novak it'll be one of the greatest achievements in sport, 23's was the best price at the time, which just goes to show you how poor outright markets like this can be, he's 6/1 to beat Nadal alone, Novak would be around 1.2 as well.
Felix needs to hold on here and get to the fifth but he's just playing better than Nadal here. Good decisions, cool execution and he didn't get phased when he couldn't consolidate at *2-0 just coolly broke again for 3-1. Whereas Nadal looks like someone who didn't prepare for this match with the respect it deserved, which is what he is.
If he has the belief that he can beat the king of the French Open at the French Open, he should win this.
Does he believe.
If he has the belief that he can beat the king of the French Open at the French Open, he should win this.
Does he believe.
there goes the last of my wta quarters, I never saw Stephens coming. Only a Pegula miracle would save it now.
Felix was still a great pick. Nadal hadn't dropped a set in his first three matches and Felix took him to five and held Rafa's feet to the fire in a brilliant match. Tennis Canada is justifiably proud today.
Kasatkina has a very serious shot at the semis and possibly further. Even though you didn't put her up as a pick you called Quarter 2 a two horse race and spent more of your summary talking about her than Badosa so I think you deserve a mulligan on Daria.
Sloane is on some wild heater that has just come out of nowhere. No form, nobody could have predicted it, it started second set against Cirstea since when she's won 6 sets in a row for the loss of 9 games. At some point logic says she's going to head over a cliff like Wile E. Coyote (but it would be nice if she could take out Coco first !!)
Kasatkina has a very serious shot at the semis and possibly further. Even though you didn't put her up as a pick you called Quarter 2 a two horse race and spent more of your summary talking about her than Badosa
so I think you deserve a mulligan on Daria.Sloane is on some wild heater that has just come out of nowhere. No form, nobody could have predicted it, it started second set against Cirstea since when she's won 6 sets in a row for the loss of 9 games. At some point logic says she's going to head over a cliff like Wile E. Coyote (but it would be nice if she could take out Coco first !!)
Kasatkina has a very serious shot at the semis and possibly further. Even though you didn't put her up as a pick you called Quarter 2 a two horse race and spent more of your summary talking about her than Badosa
https://community.betfair.com/tennis/go/thread/view/94186/31428641/daria-soft-hands-kasatkina?post_id=554990487#554990487
Surprised Rublev is fav to beat Sinner, Jannick's beaten him last two times they've played on clay as well. Fancy Kuds to beat Keys tomorrow.
Felix done well, had him beating Rafa in my bracket and only just came up short, his best chance though was always at Wimbledon, has shortened since the start of the French.
Hoping peculia Pegula gets the chance to face off against Iga, which should in theory happen.
https://community.betfair.com/tennis/go/thread/view/94186/31428641/daria-soft-hands-kasatkina?post_id=554990487#554990487
Surprised Rublev is fav to beat Sinner, Jannick's beaten him last two times they've played on clay as well. Fancy Kuds to beat Keys tomorrow.
Felix done well, had him beating Rafa in my bracket and only just came up short, his best chance though was always at Wimbledon, has shortened since the start of the French.
Hoping peculia Pegula gets the chance to face off against Iga, which should in theory happen.
All 4 men's picks to win their quarters still standing and one win away from doing so having all reached the quarter final stage, 3 of them are favs, only Zverev is expected to lose to Alcatrash. Great chance for Rublev to reach the final, a pre tournament pick at 13/1, wont ever get a better chance than beating Cilic and Ruud/Rune on the way. Cilic like Sloane, another player I hadn't considered. Outside chance of winning the bracket comp if it all falls the right way, though to my surprised 94 other people (out of 1765) also had Rublev in the final. Having said although Zverev was my pick I wouldn't mind seeing a Novak v Carlos in the best of 5 semi. Zverev made a few excuses about why he lost the Madrid final to him, there's no excuses here, don't bottle it again win or lose.
My one and only wta hope, Pegula is 2 matches away from landing a 50/1 shot, realistically Iga will win but you have to speculate to accumulate people. Kuds beat Keys as expected
Daria is a thinking man's tennis player and unless you're good at playing tennis chess, you're not going to beat her, she should see of Camilla imo. Kudermetova is a much bigger challenge.
Darya fav at 1.5
Would never have had Trevisan reaching this far incidentally.
My one and only wta hope, Pegula is 2 matches away from landing a 50/1 shot, realistically Iga will win but you have to speculate to accumulate people. Kuds beat Keys as expected
Daria is a thinking man's tennis player and unless you're good at playing tennis chess, you're not going to beat her, she should see of Camilla imo. Kudermetova is a much bigger challenge.
Darya fav at 1.5
Would never have had Trevisan reaching this far incidentally.
Stefanos Tsitsipas said this a few years ago........."I want world wide appeal like Roger Federer"
Dear Mr Tsitsipas,
Your failure to get to the final of the 2022 freanch open, given that R nadal, N djokovic and C Alcaraz were in the other half illustrates how stupid this quote is.
regards,
World wide tennis fans.
Dear Mr Tsitsipas,
Your failure to get to the final of the 2022 freanch open, given that R nadal, N djokovic and C Alcaraz were in the other half illustrates how stupid this quote is.
regards,
World wide tennis fans.
^
Speaking of Tsitsipas I had an indepth post here way back on the 22nd where I singled out Tsitsipas and Medvedev as lightweight contenders to have the bottom half of the draw dependent on them. Just realised it's been deleted for some reason
But if Stephanos wasted a great chance, Demon was just as bad. What was the point in Alex putting in the graft to have his clay form oven ready for the French if he's just going to let the crowd get on his back and semi-flounce the first round. With hindsight he had an amazing opportunity here. My biggest disappointment of the tournament.
Speaking of Tsitsipas I had an indepth post here way back on the 22nd where I singled out Tsitsipas and Medvedev as lightweight contenders to have the bottom half of the draw dependent on them. Just realised it's been deleted for some reason
But if Stephanos wasted a great chance, Demon was just as bad. What was the point in Alex putting in the graft to have his clay form oven ready for the French if he's just going to let the crowd get on his back and semi-flounce the first round. With hindsight he had an amazing opportunity here. My biggest disappointment of the tournament.
Trevisan has played some great stuff this tournament and really grabbed some shine.
If she does win this she'd better not fall into JBABP syndrome as I fancy Sloane to pull an upset on Gauff at 2.78
If she does win this she'd better not fall into JBABP syndrome as I fancy Sloane to pull an upset on Gauff at 2.78
Trevisan doesn't suffer from JBABP. Look who she beat to start this current run!
What was with her grin when serving for match at 40.30
Ash Darty! I take it all back.
In the meantime she's stood grinning for ten seconds at matchpoint, lost it and then had her backside handed to her in the tiebreak.
Still there's no way the conqueror of Harriet loses this.
2nd set Jinx effort that winningthought would have approved of (where is he these days? Top guy)
But not to be for Leylah today.
Still a very good French Open for her considering how she looked on the surface at the start of the clay season.
Lots of hard work evident. Lots of little bits of progress. Little things lead to big things.
But not to be for Leylah today.
Still a very good French Open for her considering how she looked on the surface at the start of the clay season.
Lots of hard work evident. Lots of little bits of progress. Little things lead to big things.
Zverev's been complaining about unfair scheduling again as he did in Madrid, he does have a point, but also sounds like he's getting excuses in early, best to say nothing til afterwards.
she is a player that likes leaping from defence to attack quickly and with her nimble movements she can do that on clay better, Mug done well to win this tournament in the past but it feels and looks like her time has been and gone, Cori will out manoeuvre Muguruza’s mechanical tennis. She’s also feeling confident, ‘Iga being No.1 definitely gives a little extra motivation knowing that she can accomplish it at such a young age in the sport, and mayb
I should have that little bit more faith in Gauff, my draw had her reaching the Quarters as she did today, before losing to Teichman, how did Stephens dismiss her so easily. Hot and cold player personified. She looked terrible against the German qualifier Niemeier til she got lucky with her injury.
she is a player that likes leaping from defence to attack quickly and with her nimble movements she can do that on clay better, Mug done well to win this tournament in the past but it feels and looks like her time has been and gone, Cori will out manoeuvre Muguruza’s mechanical tennis. She’s also feeling confident, ‘Iga being No.1 definitely gives a little extra motivation knowing that she can accomplish it at such a young age in the sport, and mayb
I should have that little bit more faith in Gauff, my draw had her reaching the Quarters as she did today, before losing to Teichman, how did Stephens dismiss her so easily. Hot and cold player personified. She looked terrible against the German qualifier Niemeier til she got lucky with her injury.
Boom. Well done Mes.
The hardest of your ATP Quarters landed (and guaranteed profit on the four Quarters)
What a Fourth set! Bet you were pacing the room though.
The hardest of your ATP Quarters landed (and guaranteed profit on the four Quarters)
What a Fourth set! Bet you were pacing the room though.
yeah a good win, also launches me up to 55th out of 1765th in bracket comp.
I was actually hoping for a 5th set as I had big green on Carlos laying Zverev at certain points, but at last he showed some mental fortitude, unbelievably that's his first ever top 10 win in a grand slam
I was actually hoping for a 5th set as I had big green on Carlos laying Zverev at certain points, but at last he showed some mental fortitude, unbelievably that's his first ever top 10 win in a grand slam
Kasatkina and Kudermetova about to kick off. Both mentioned in the preview and hard to split, born within a month of each other, 9 places apart in the rankings, one H2H win for Kasatkina on hard in 2021. Two of the standout performers of the last week. Kasatkina should edge this but it will be a tight one, a 7-6 or 7-5 in there and probably 3 sets.
^
Kasatkina win, 7-6 set, close to a third but 2 out of 3 not bad.
Iga now on and up a set.
Not sure if you're watching Mes but you really really don't want to know how Pegula got robbed in that first set.
Kasatkina win, 7-6 set, close to a third but 2 out of 3 not bad.
Iga now on and up a set.
Not sure if you're watching Mes but you really really don't want to know how Pegula got robbed in that first set.
oh well, all my wta picks gone, all would be made up if Rublev won the next two matches.
I hope Kasatkina beats Swiatek, it would be much better for the sport, how lucky did Iga get with Zheng being on her period
I hope Kasatkina beats Swiatek, it would be much better for the sport, how lucky did Iga get with Zheng being on her period
No idea which way this Ru/Ru match goes, currently 1 set all, 6 games all.
Just a last thought that occured to me when all four of your ATP picks got to the QFs.
The quarter winning prices have short changed you a bit, would it make sense if you did this again to pick a quarter winner to be backed cumulatively match by match and declare the odds at the end? You pointed out the price for Daria was 8s. Considering the players she had to beat to win her quarter that price was ludicrously skinny and unrepresentative.
Anyway looking back you got plenty of stuff right, especially in Section 2 which is almost Nostradamus-like. Well played imo.
Just a last thought that occured to me when all four of your ATP picks got to the QFs.
The quarter winning prices have short changed you a bit, would it make sense if you did this again to pick a quarter winner to be backed cumulatively match by match and declare the odds at the end? You pointed out the price for Daria was 8s. Considering the players she had to beat to win her quarter that price was ludicrously skinny and unrepresentative.
Anyway looking back you got plenty of stuff right, especially in Section 2 which is almost Nostradamus-like. Well played imo.
Ruud's win concludes the thread, no more dogs left in the fight.
Only 2 winners
Ruud to win his quarter @ 5.5
Zverev to win his quarter @ 4.5
couple of near misses, Rublev and Novak both fell before the final hurdle, not that ND was any kind of value.
Halep inexplicably suffered a panic attack, Badosa pulled out injured yet again. Apparently she's had about 25 retirements in her career going back to ITF's, which I didn't know about til this week, not a regular watcher of below tour events. Teichmann a real missed opportunity.
Jabeur a complete flop.
thanks JM for your contribution to the thread, always appreciated. Did manage to get a lot right with a some of big names in the draw in the opening post but should have gone for Daria to make the semi's, have always rated her, but she's underachieved thus far.
it goes back to what I said in a previous post If Felix beats Nadal and Novak it'll be one of the greatest achievements in sport, 23's was the best price at the time, which just goes to show you how poor outright markets like this can be, you're pretty much always going to be better off backing players match by match but for purposes of simplicity for the thread/making predictions, I'll probably stick to just quoting pre tournament odds. In general beating the overround over time with the bookies only results in being stake factored down to 0.1, i.e restricted account, to get any kind of value in outrights you need to be looking way back from where most of the money is being placed, my main picks were mostly within the top 10 list to get to the the semi's. Which is why it's only worth being on the exchange anyway.
Will try and find time for a Wimbledon write up, if you wanted a Raducanu-esque rank outside pick now then you could do worse than Fruhvirtova, 170th in the world, good in Wimbledon juniors singles and doubles than the other slams (not that it always correlates with main tour performances but still), may not even qualify or being given a wildcard but would be huge odds. Seems to be wired the same way Sharapova was as in she will always fight for your money. Worth a shot.
Kind Regards.
Only 2 winners
Ruud to win his quarter @ 5.5
Zverev to win his quarter @ 4.5
couple of near misses, Rublev and Novak both fell before the final hurdle, not that ND was any kind of value.
Halep inexplicably suffered a panic attack, Badosa pulled out injured yet again. Apparently she's had about 25 retirements in her career going back to ITF's, which I didn't know about til this week, not a regular watcher of below tour events. Teichmann a real missed opportunity.
Jabeur a complete flop.
thanks JM for your contribution to the thread, always appreciated. Did manage to get a lot right with a some of big names in the draw in the opening post but should have gone for Daria to make the semi's, have always rated her, but she's underachieved thus far.
it goes back to what I said in a previous post If Felix beats Nadal and Novak it'll be one of the greatest achievements in sport, 23's was the best price at the time, which just goes to show you how poor outright markets like this can be, you're pretty much always going to be better off backing players match by match but for purposes of simplicity for the thread/making predictions, I'll probably stick to just quoting pre tournament odds. In general beating the overround over time with the bookies only results in being stake factored down to 0.1, i.e restricted account, to get any kind of value in outrights you need to be looking way back from where most of the money is being placed, my main picks were mostly within the top 10 list to get to the the semi's. Which is why it's only worth being on the exchange anyway.
Will try and find time for a Wimbledon write up, if you wanted a Raducanu-esque rank outside pick now then you could do worse than Fruhvirtova, 170th in the world, good in Wimbledon juniors singles and doubles than the other slams (not that it always correlates with main tour performances but still), may not even qualify or being given a wildcard but would be huge odds. Seems to be wired the same way Sharapova was as in she will always fight for your money. Worth a shot.
Kind Regards.
Hats off mes. Really nice to see a good well thought out preview and tips up before the off. Some great winners in there too. Good stuff!
I backed Stefanos and traded out when Novak and Rafa were lining up. I lumped on Novak mid 4s and laid Alcaraz mid 3s. If Novak had beaten Rafa I would be sitting on a monster green, as it is, took a bit of a hit. Thems that breaks. Coco has been a lovely result though, and daring to dream she topples Iga, definitely has a chance but will need to bring her A game and Iga not to bring hers which I think is a fair possibility.
nadal was 5/1 on here for the 2022 french open............put that in your pipe and smoke it. never doubt him at this event. he will win now.
he has not played in wimbledon or us open since 2019. i think its important for him to get to these events in 2022. theres not a lot of competition out there for the slams........basically its between him and novak for wimbledon. who else can win it?
he has not played in wimbledon or us open since 2019. i think its important for him to get to these events in 2022. theres not a lot of competition out there for the slams........basically its between him and novak for wimbledon. who else can win it?
He was doubted by everyone because of injury concerns, not ability, hence his price.
Just seen Zverev's injury in slow motion, that looks like a clean leg break, wont be back til next year.
Just seen Zverev's injury in slow motion, that looks like a clean leg break, wont be back til next year.
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