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Journeyman
15 Mar 22 19:09
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Date Joined: 14 May 06
| Topic/replies: 9,122 | Blogger: Journeyman's blog
Saville  @5.4 is some value, probably the likeliest winner of the four.

Cirstea @4.7
Always in the shadow of Halep but in superb form after runs in AO and Lyon.

Dart @4.8
Susan Wright playing out of her skin, continues to be underestimated.

Fernandez @2.62
Probably the right price but serve on upcurve and has forgotten how to lose

Four points, one on each single. No muggy multiples.
In the crystal ball I see at least two wins.
One win alone = the equivalent of an edged insurance.
Seems like a night of possibilities
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Report mesmerised March 15, 2022 6:15 PM GMT
based on what I've seen of Dart, she should not be the price she is, which makes her backable win or lose, haven't seen much of Gavrilova though only some highlights v Jabeur. Can't believe Cirstea hasn't played Halep on tour in 12 years.
Report Journeyman March 15, 2022 6:24 PM GMT
I see I only got in ahead of you tarting her by about 227 seconds Grin

You've mentioned good value winners/losers a few times, reminds me of the poster GVL.
Wonder what he's doing these days, a big presence on here in the happily bonkers era before the Megathreads
Report Journeyman March 15, 2022 6:40 PM GMT
Dart's back to back victories didn't get the credit they deserved.  Win over Svitolina was put in context of world events and Kanepi's red hot form not really taken into account, most UK media focus that day going on Emma going out.

I suggested at the end of last year that a player would emerge from the mollycoddled Britpack due to inspiration of Raducanu but I'll be honest I expected it would be one of the WTA players with a surname starting with 'B'. But it's turned out to be Dart.
Report mesmerised March 15, 2022 7:31 PM GMT
I remember him, just about, the first 100 tarts is all about picking players who a) I think have a realistic chance of winning and b) look like value to back, 1.2 shots can obv be value but it'd be against the spirit of the thread, after the first batch of 100 tarts, the second batch will be about backing players who I think will win, and then compare the two.

you would like to think Raducanu has inspired players but never happened with Murray. I think Dart's game matches up well with Key's Baseball tennis, she dealt with Kanepi's quite well, Keys is definitely the favourite but not having those short odds.
Report wisewords March 15, 2022 7:32 PM GMT
After watching the performance against Svitolina, backing Harriet against Kanepi was a no brainer for me. She's playing at such a high standard this tournament
Report wisewords March 15, 2022 7:32 PM GMT
Journeyman, don't let the comms manipulate you. Svitolina was trying to win world events or not
Report Journeyman March 15, 2022 8:23 PM GMT
In a fairly small sample size you've started by trending up and then like you say it's been ranging up to the 50s. But profitability at level stakes is a hard nut to crack, a lot of people would be more than happy with your consistency so far.

I like Laura Robson as a commentator. Very data driven and some interesting takes. I may however be getting influenced by the way her voice cuts through and her timbre. She'd be ideally suited to reading scandalous British novels on Audible Grin
Report SamuelMertensBertens March 15, 2022 8:54 PM GMT
that would be weally hot.
Report Journeyman March 15, 2022 10:28 PM GMT
Sorana took a while to get going but the second set was tightly matched. Halep getting quite tight at the end, did not want a final set.

Shoulda woulda coulda. Let's see what Harriet can do.
Report mesmerised March 15, 2022 11:47 PM GMT
But profitability at level stakes is a hard nut to crack, a lot of people would be more than happy with your consistency so far.


yes, seen many people try over the years and nearly all of them fail, this is only the second long term prediction thread I've posted, the last one several years ago finished around 13pts in profit, though that was less than 40 bets.

I might one day do a Rome and post a load of very short priced favs, could be the 3rd batch of 100 tarts, then maybe for the more sophisticated followers, applying Kelly Criterion formula, so many options, not enough time.
Report Journeyman March 16, 2022 12:04 AM GMT
Saville retires halfway through first set. Cry

Such a shame after great wins in her last two rounds.
Report Journeyman March 16, 2022 3:01 AM GMT
Seems like a night of possibilities


Not tonight. Ah well. Hope Daria is alright.
Report mesmerised March 16, 2022 10:42 AM GMT
it was unlucky, all 4 were backable.
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