my Wimbledon musings

You never know who you’ll have reaching where until you fill out the draw match by match, round by round, and it usually conjures up surprises, which in the WTA is a good thing as backing a sure thing in women’s tennis is like trying to nail jelly to the wall,  there’s been 13 new slam winners from the last 22 ever since Randomer Penn & Teller beat Roberto de Vinci to the the US Open in 2015, unfortunately for da Vinci her finest piece of work that tournament was beating Serena in the semi. Contrast that to the men’s game where there’s been just 1 new winner during the same period, Thiem.

However, if I had just one pick, it would be Barty @ 7/1, not much value but her draw is good, Fred West > Blink182ova > Frizz bomb > KostyUK > Azarenka > Angelique you know Kerber > God knows who in the final, the other side of the draw is anyone’s guess, Garbine, Big Foot, Sakkari on safari, Sabalenka amongst others.

Barty retired as a precaution at the French but just read quotes saying she’s fit, healthy, felt good on the practice courts, and really wants to do it on Goolagong’s 50th year anniversary, it is after all the grass where she was expected to win her first slam not clay, only question mark is that she’s not played any warm up events. Threats in her half of the draw are the likes of Azarenka @ 40/1, Kerber @ 40/1, Ostapancake @ 28’s, Gauff @ 20’s, plus a dark horse who’ll I get on to. Azarenka has played 5 grass matches in Germany but pulled out with an abdominal injury in Hamburg probably as a precaution for Wimbledon, it does put doubt on her though, physically she could struggle against Kontaveit in round 3. Kerber’s won 6 out 7 grass matches in the last 2 week including beating Kvitova and I have her beating Serena in the 3rd match. Penko has also just won 6 out 7 grass court matches as well beating a high calibre field in Eastbourne. Eastbourne is where pensioners go to retire so no surprise Zvonereva held up the white flag in round 1.

My 1 dark horse from the top half of the draw and the draw itself would be Badosa @ 80/1, she is very impressive and moreover, has it between the ears, mentally tough, does not have much experience on grass which counts against her but she did play a long 3 set match against Svitolina on the south coast which she lost in a 3rd set tie breaker, she also beat Grass court specialists Riske, a couple of years ago, her game is more suited to the red dust but I think she can play on this surface comfortably, her earliest biggest threat is Muchova chance, in the 4th. 

If I had a gun to my head and had to call the winner from the bottom half I’d ask you to pull the trigger, you see can top seeds tumbling earlier than the top, KaPlis is the worst former World number 1 I can think off, she could easily lose in any round, wouldn’t surprise me if Zidansek beat her in Round 1 even though she’s barely ever played on grass, she at least has the confidence which can be enough to beat someone as flaky as Pliskabot, though more likely Vekic round 2.

Kenin’s draw has a good feel to it, she hasn’t played on grass for 2 years but won Mallorca in 2019 beating a strong line up whilst being odds against in the Quarters onwards, no reason why she can’t get past Wang > Brengle > Collins > Keys/Mertens > Kvitova > Saba/Sakarri/Garbine/ Ryba, the ability is obviously there, she’s @ 50/1. Two other mentions from the bottom, Samsonova and Jabuer, the former just won Berlin after coming through qualies and the latter won Birmingham, she’s won something like 20 of her last 25 matches on grass, or something close to that, never ignore form, both are 40/1. First time I really started to take the Tunisian seriously was when she lost to Halep in Dubai last year, a proper epic match, that was her coming of age match. I don’t really like the look of Swiatek on grass and although I see many tipping Serena yet again, I think her race is done, she’s gone at the game, will lose to the first half decent opponent which is Kerber.

Summary

Outright Pick: Barty @ 7/1

Dark Horse: 1) Badosa @ 80/1

2nd quarter winner: Kerber @ 11/1

3rd quarter winner: Kenin @ 9/1

Punts on all the aforementioned for the outright too, Jabuer 40’s, Samsonova 40’s,, Kerber 40’s, Azarenka 40’s,  Ostapenko 28’s, Gauff 20’s, Romanian Warrior Princess @ 1000/1


The men’s

Outright pick Novak @ 8/11

2nd quarter winner: Shapovalov @ 8/1 - probably Greeky but this much better value, I like his draw Kohlschreiber > Herbert > Basilashvili > Koepfer/ RBA > Greeky.

Dark Horse: Rublev @ 40/1  - what he lacks in skill he makes up for with sheer effort.

3rd Quarter winner: Zverev @ 5/2 - Zverev’s draw looks quite comfortable til the Quarter match itself, Griekspor > Sandgren > Fritz > Humbert > Berrettini, though Humbert actually will give him a run for his money.

Don’t be tempted by the chump Kyrgios, he’s only here for a vacation, his own words, for years his boat race reminded me of someone I couldn’t quite put my finger on til recently, then I got it - Hades from Hercules, separated at birth. I suppose Cilic could be dark horse @66/1 if you can call him that, had another good grass court season thus far though beating mostly mugs.  Would have to get past Medvedev who’s just won Mallorca but I don’t fancy him on grass against good grass court players, then Cilic he’d have to get past Federer which is feasible given his age and injury concerns. One thing you can count on with him is he'll never retire from a match because he never has.

At the French open I finished I think around 40th with my bracket entry out of about 1,700 I think and am inside the top 100 out of a total of 2200 entries combing Australia and Roland Garros, had 45 correct r1 picks from 64 in Paris and 50/64 in Oz, trying to beat that here.

in the women’s at the French, the final had 31st seed v Unseeded, suffice to say I belly flopped.