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differentdrum
12 Aug 18 17:38
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Date Joined: 05 Oct 11
| Topic/replies: 11,408 | Blogger: differentdrum's blog
Assuming fitness isn't an issue Konta looks a poor favourite to me. She is showing signs of some improvement but I wouldn't read too much into that Williams result and I don't see her getting back near her highest ranking. Her game remains limited and plenty of that rise up the rankings was due to her attitude relative to many of her opponents. She turned up week after week, many of them didn't.

Sabalenka looks a coming force. Definite top twenty and perhaps top ten potential. She was probably unlucky with the scheduling in Montreal. Appears to have both the ability and the attitude to scrap out a match.

I would have Sabalenka as favourite.

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Replies: 20
By:
differentdrum
When: 13 Aug 18 10:58
I assume short priced punters are not totally stupid so something not quite right here. You surely would not take long odds-on Konta unless you had more than an inkling that Sabalenka was going into this match half baked. 2/1 is a ridiculous price but clearly there is a reason for that and it probably doesn't have much to do with actual tennis ability.
By:
n88uk
When: 13 Aug 18 12:34
Sabalenka was never going to be favourite vs Konta, the market loves Konta as the hype is she's back. Konta was like 50:50 almost a few days ago with Svitolina in the market.
By:
differentdrum
When: 13 Aug 18 22:48
On a shocking run at the moment but have ignored the market and ended up backing Sabalenka twice. If they both play well I don't see her losing.
By:
wisewords
When: 14 Aug 18 02:07
well played Sir!
By:
wisewords
When: 14 Aug 18 02:07
hope you layed Konta low also. she traded very low inplay

1.05              £18,071
1.06              £25,008
1.07              £34,677
1.08              £55,862
1.09              £30,328
1.10              £23,079
By:
differentdrum
When: 15 Aug 18 14:21
Thanks, almost forgotten what it is like to win. Not really an in-running punter.

Have gone in again today although perhaps there isn't quite the value of the Konta match. This time the market move is for Sabalenka.

Pliskova had a decent win against Radwanska but her opponent has no real weapons much beyond frustration. Effectively, she finally beat someone who is on the slippery slope. Clearly if she serves well it will not be easy but I feel Sabalenka has the more solid big game and is likely to be far less fragile when it matters. It strikes me Pliskova's career has stalled whereas Sabalenka is very much on the upward curve. Fingers crossed.
By:
differentdrum
When: 15 Aug 18 20:20
Didn't see the match or stats but that is another very good win.

Going forward she obviously needs to bring the intensity to the court a lot sooner. No matter how much she has in the mental toughness department (it seems like lots) she can't keep winning from a set down. If she can get straight into a match as I suggested earlier she has enough in the locker to scare any opponent.
By:
wisewords
When: 15 Aug 18 22:15

Aug 15, 2018 -- 2:21PM, differentdrum wrote:


Thanks, almost forgotten what it is like to win. Not really an in-running punter.Have gone in again today although perhaps there isn't quite the value of the Konta match. This time the market move is for Sabalenka. Pliskova had a decent win against Radwanska but her opponent has no real weapons much beyond frustration. Effectively, she finally beat someone who is on the slippery slope. Clearly if she serves well it will not be easy but I feel Sabalenka has the more solid big game and is likely to be far less fragile when it matters. It strikes me Pliskova's career has stalled whereas Sabalenka is very much on the upward curve. Fingers crossed.


You did it again! Congrats

By:
differentdrum
When: 16 Aug 18 12:03
Even though some bookmakers are dangling an 11/8 carrot I won't be going in again against Garcia.

It is a perfectly winnable match for Sabalenka but three set matches and saving match points will eventually take their toll. I wouldn't read too much into Garcia's comfortable win over Azarenka as her opponent is a shadow of the player she once was. Garcia has had no more than a reasonable season with a few decent wins, mainly on clay. For a top 10 player one quarter final in Grand Slams in nine years isn't great. I see her slipping down the rankings rather than improving.
By:
wisewords
When: 17 Aug 18 03:42
Sabalenka marches on, and in the process gubs Caroline Garcia 1.05!
By:
differentdrum
When: 17 Aug 18 11:29
Yes, not too many, if any, will have produced three successive wins in such edge of the seat style this season.

All about maintaining that desire match by match.

To go in again or not?

I think this time it is worth playing. I don't think Keys is harder than Garcia and you are getting 13/8 as opposed to 11/8. Perhaps the three set matches may eventually take a toll but Keys is not a player to entertain long rallies.

Keys has had an okay season (surprisingly plenty of wins on clay but not too many high profile wins) but I think the market has overreacted to the Kerber win. Kerber doesn't have a great array of weapons but her movement is good and she can be extremely frustrating to play against. At Wimbledon she came up against a succession of players who had enough game to take her out but none had the belief to even convert a set. I suspect at the moment she has one eye on the US Open.

If Keys serves well it will be difficult but if Sabalenka gets a foothold there is no obvious reason why she can't do it again.
By:
differentdrum
When: 18 Aug 18 11:32
Another nice win and good news that she has taken the opening set in the two matches since I mentioned it, even taking this one in two.

Worth mentioning outright betting and how poor the each-way terms are for tennis. Victor Chandler were standout 250/1 (next best 100/1) at tournament start. Imagine if you had backed her (I didn't as I lost my VC account several years ago) how gutted you would feel if she went out at the semi-final stage. Great selection for no return. If they can offer 10 places for big golf tournaments I don't see why they can't offer 4 places on the big tennis tournaments.

Still deciding about today.

Halep represents a totally different challenge being a much more defensive player and relying heavily on her movement and ability to force her opponent to hit one more ball. Essentially a more offensive version of Kerber. It seems from recent Slam results that style of game is working - sadly. That said it was a hugely embarrassing performance at Wimbledon. The draw had opened up and she totally bombed.

Again Sabalenka has the ability to win and the key will probably be not getting too frustrated with the number of balls that Halep will retrieve. Halep has had a really soft passage to this stage and will know she will have to produce more to win this match. I think it is a much closer match up than the odds would suggest.
By:
wisewords
When: 18 Aug 18 14:02
Sabalenka is inspirational!
By:
differentdrum
When: 18 Aug 18 19:54
Given the odds on offer decided to go again but this time for half the stake.
By:
differentdrum
When: 19 Aug 18 11:44
Not to be. The pattern of game was pretty much as I predicted.

I read one report last night which gave the impression that this was a straightforward win for Halep. Really? The match could very easily have gone to a deciding set and then who knows?

Sabalenka actually started the better (although it didn't reflect on the scoreboard) but halfway through the first set her serve deserted her and the unforced errors racked up. To her credit she regrouped in the second set from a break down and could have broken for the lead in both the 7th and 9th games (three backhand errors on break points). She should have held for 5-5 as well, missing a line by a fraction and a put away overhead on game points.

No title but going forward a mass of positives. Great serve, great attitude and a mass of big shots which are a lot safer than the likes of Ostapenko. She also moves better than many of the big hitters. I under sold her in the opening post and as long as she maintains the desire she should be a cert for top ten.

Time off would be a good idea now and prepare for the Open.
By:
wisewords
When: 19 Aug 18 14:23
Sabalenka future world number 1
By:
differentdrum
When: 19 Aug 18 15:08
That would nice. It is in her hands to carry on the progression.

For me too many defenders (to varying degrees) currently towards the top of the game - Halep, Kerber, Wozniacki and even Stephens' game is based around a solid defence.

There was one rally very early on in yesterday's match where Sabalenka stormed the net and the ball was literally being hammered from side to side. She just missed out on the the winner in the end but that is the kind of carefree tennis I want to watch.
By:
wisewords
When: 19 Aug 18 16:06
Yes Sabalenka bringing a brand of offensive tennis which is great on the eye. A more solid version of Ostapenko basically
By:
differentdrum
When: 19 Aug 18 17:37
I don't think Ostapenko will ever be remotely solid. Serve is an absolute disaster area which puts massive pressure on the rest of her game.
By:
wisewords
When: 19 Aug 18 20:22
Totally agree
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