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06 Jul 17 20:41
Date Joined: 10 Nov 10
| Topic/replies: 29,043 | Blogger: mesmerised's blog
never thought I'd hear that
Pause Switch to Standard View Konta is favourite to win Wimbledon
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Report Journeyman July 6, 2017 10:00 PM BST
Here's the bit I find mental.

Konta is 7.2 to win Wimbledon.
Watson is 100 at time of posting.

That is some disparity and I just don't think it adds up.

Yes I know Watson has 'fallen off' during the 12 months that Konta has been quite consistent but (until proven otherwise) Watson is on balance more of a 'big stage overachiever' of the two.
She's also got the all round game to win on grass and her serve is looking more of a weapon than ever.

Read a great interview with her about doing the rounds at tournaments where water bottles weren't provided
and that was the factor that focused her thoughts I want this, I want to be in the big league etc.

Azarenka fought back well against Bellis but I think that's where it'll end. Heather can take her apart and is a great price at 3s tomorrow.
Report Journeyman July 6, 2017 10:20 PM BST
And that's not to be disrespectful to Vika who's obviously one of the best players of the last ten years. But on grass she's vulnerable to a decent returner. It gets overlooked that kvitova's entire journey from Joourneywoman to double slam winner started when she humiliated Vika at this very tournament.

As for Konta, like Ostapenko there are big question marks over whether she will even reach the second week.
Report mesmerised July 6, 2017 10:31 PM BST
With Watson's draw, people see the name Azarenka, then a R4 with Halep and then QF v Konta, a semi v Williams and a Final v Cirstea and just say....not for me, a bit of a punt, but she shouldda and cudda knocked Serena out 2 years ago, she will need to play at that level every round here on in.

Before the draw I said 15 players could win here, before the French I said 15 could win there, but not one was Ostapenko, and here not one was WatsonGrin that's how unpredicatble it is atm

Without Serena there is no clear winner in any draw.
Report n88uk July 6, 2017 10:34 PM BST
Even though it might have been the case anyway as she was hovering around 3rd favourite pre-tournament, a big part of Konta being favourite is the fact she's 1.17 to win in R3 to play Garcia or Brengle after. That is why she's now clear favourite. As no-one else in the draw is like 1.6 to reach the QF's like she is.

When you think about it the favourite being 7.x after 2 rounds is pretty nutty itself.
Report mafeking July 7, 2017 12:21 AM BST
picture no clearer now than 3 weeks ago. could throw a blanket over the first 10 players in the market now down to 7 or 8
Report pandora1963 July 7, 2017 12:42 AM BST
backed her at 22/1, best bet for years, shes playing to a higher level than anyone, the last match her opponent played fantastic and konta still came through
Report pandora1963 July 7, 2017 12:43 AM BST
best bet for years
Report dlarssonf July 7, 2017 9:11 AM BST
Watson are you serious , she should be 1000/1 , never in a million years will Heather win a grand slam.
Report n88uk July 7, 2017 10:49 AM BST
I don't think the winner will ultimately come from any of the top 4 currently in the betting (Konta, Kerber, Vandeweghe, Halep as I write this).
Report The Bhoys July 7, 2017 1:27 PM BST
I liked azarankas price before today o/r but Confused
Report Clerkmore July 7, 2017 2:23 PM BST
It's a while since an Australian has won it.Grin
Report bobweenit July 7, 2017 9:59 PM BST
Mugu will pish it great price
Report Journeyman July 7, 2017 10:10 PM BST
Think you're being harsh on Heather dlarssonf. Did her best stuff today in the first and third sets change your mind at all?

If Konta wins the title we'll see a lot of polite clapping, not the full body seal clapping reserved for Muzza etc.

As the last remaining true rubber-stamped headcase in the draw, Coco would be a great Wimbledon champion. I agree it's somewhat unlikely but I'd love to see the celebrations.
Report n88uk July 7, 2017 11:17 PM BST
CoCo's price seems really bad. Is she really any better than say Kontaveit, the outright suggests yes by quite a bit, but I don't agree.
Report n88uk July 7, 2017 11:21 PM BST
CoCo's price works out at like 1.63 a round on average. Given she's 1.46 to beat Riske, I can't see any way that works out as good odds.
Report Journeyman July 7, 2017 11:48 PM BST
Coco's in that group of four priced at 11s(ish).

Looking at that group of four from the point of view of proven abilty to penetrate deep in big tournamants, Venus, Kerber and Halep are in a different class to Coco.

BUT... looking at it from the point of view 'who has the best tools to win Wimbledon', it's surely Venus followed by Coco then the other two a distant 3rd and 4th.
Grass should accent her advantages in a way other surfaces do not.
Report Journeyman July 8, 2017 12:05 AM BST
If anything the real odd one out in that group is Venus.

i.e. Simona has next to no chance of winning this. Vulnerable on the surface and showed in the French she's still going to make poor decisions when it comes to the crunch.
Venus is the only remaining previous winner, and is on a relatively consistent run of performances in slams right now, and is one of the most successful grass players ever.
What in the hell are they doing at the same price?
Report dlarssonf July 8, 2017 8:28 AM BST
Nah I don't think so Journeyman , I suppose we all think differently but all Heather has is very good movement. Her forehand under pressure is horrific and mentally she is a mess , you can see her visibly shaking when in a good position in big matches.  I though azarenka was pretty poor yesterday and still won, Heather has achieved a good living form tennis and imo has probably over achieved with very limited ability
Report mafeking July 8, 2017 11:02 AM BST
she just doesn't have the weight of shot to trouble the best players consistently
Report DStyle July 8, 2017 12:28 PM BST
Konta's style is unremarkable, but she does everything well. Her execution, consistency and handling pressure are probably the attributes that distinguish her.

My gut feel is that it's still wide open and for that reason konta should be amongst the front runners. I'm not sure she's the clear favourite once we get down to the final eight, but I can see how she can be favourite now by virtue of having the easiest of the fourth round matches.

I don't think she has the game to exploit either Halep or Azarenka's weaknesses on grass but that doesn't mean she can't beat them, rather she's just not going in with a distinct advantage. Everything from the third quarter looks hard for her as well.

Happen to think that Konjuh is the real value bet for the outrights.
Report RozelKid July 11, 2017 6:27 PM BST
Shows how much i follow british Tennis - ive just seen that Konta is actually Australian...I never knew this.
Report mesmerised July 12, 2017 12:38 AM BST
Muguruza is now favourite, which is right.

Btw what was more amazing about Konta being favourite was that she was favourite before Round 3 had even begun, regardless of having only played 6 matches at Wimbledon before the tournie in her career and losing 5 of them, obv this is Konta 2.0, but still that is one monumental turnaround. It's also good she is no longer favourite so that doesn't have to be kept putting to her in interviews and whatnot, takes the pressure off a bit.
Report lurka July 12, 2017 7:59 AM BST
reckon Venus will beat Konta
Report bobweenit July 12, 2017 9:58 PM BST

Jul 7, 2017 -- 3:59PM, bobweenit wrote:

Mugu will pish it great price


Report The Bhoys July 12, 2017 10:12 PM BST
Garbine looks big price in semi
Report columbo001 July 13, 2017 12:25 AM BST
Johanna Konta is an unusual name for an English woman. Was she born in England ?
Report Mooono July 13, 2017 10:27 AM BST
Born in Australia by hungarian parents, shes about as british as a chicken jalfrezi
Report lurka July 13, 2017 11:16 AM BST
She's as Welsh as she is English
Report mesmerised July 13, 2017 11:23 AM BST
Would everyone get over her nationality and move on.
Report betting_masta July 14, 2017 7:35 PM BST
she's Tim Henman. not the first semi she'll go on to lose
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