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When I say US y'all say O - US Open Megafred 2016
When I say US y'all say O - US Open Megafred 2016
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real kiki
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538 USO predictions
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-us-open-tennis-predictions/ |
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Hamburgers didn't listen to Carina
 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GRas76FwpMk |
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Duan 80%-20% Sakkari
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How do 538 come up with their muggy models. They always seem to publish these models that are just obvious bs.
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I'm going to guess their ELO system is flawed somewhere (I use something like this too, it's how I listed my top 10 a week ago). Their ELO system has Golubic as the 24th best player in the world
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Oh no, they just don't have them listed in order like I thought, there in some muggy order for her to be listed so high.
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Her ELO is still ridiculously high though. She's rated around the same as Doi and Begu etc.
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Danielle Collins WC 1496
Ellen Perez WC 1500 Yafan Wang Q 1440 Antonia Lottner Q 1450 Kayla Day WC 1483  |
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Golubic 44 if I counted right
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She's rated as far better than Jelena Ostapenko. Whatever they are using for their ELO is very flawed as other people's ELO's will give you a far better and more accurate list.
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1500 is a standard ELO if there's not enough data I'm guessing
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Why is Sakkari rated so bad yet Ying-Ying like she's a world beater.
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she beat Genie that 1 time
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That is standard Aaron yes for 1500 to be normal. They have a lot of mugs overrated compared to what you normally see.
I think it's typical for example for only Serena to be 21xx. And no-one else even above 2000. Vika/Sharapova will be say around 1950 right now. Then Kerber/Halep hover around late 18xx, early 19xx |
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If Vika and Sharapova were in a very strong period they will hover over 2000. Both peaked over 2000. But both weren't at their peak when they last played. I think Serena peak is high 22xx.
Their figures seem very diff to normal though. 538 are known for muggy models though. Their World Cup 2014 model had Brazil over 50% chance of winning I think . |
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The Sabine one is laughable too. 59% vs Putintseva.
Kvitova 79% vs Ostapenko (both their ELO's look out to me). How is Ostapenko rated so badly, she even beat some big names, they have her rated about the same as the likes of Ying-Ying, and worse than a load of average mugs (even Konjuh bizarrely is rated higher). Ostapenko is 1779, Yet the following are 1800+: Razzano, King, Golubic, Friedsam, Konjuh, Kucova, Sevastova, Brengle, Peng, Giorgi, Larsson, Flipkens and many other players who are clearly worse than Ostapenko. Ostapenko is ranked about 90 in whatever model they are using anyway. |
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Ostapenko is 64th
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you can sort by ELO
its set up initially by something else |
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ELO always has 2 ultimate flaws anyway imo.
#1 Is no injury or inactivity decay #2 Is players who were once at a high level don't decay quick enough when losing and stay horrendously overranked for too long. Because in theory ELO is meant to measure something like chess so the first is never considered and the second point someone's level isn't expected to just drop off a cliff. Obviously in tennis your actual level is fluctuating more, but something like chess if you were once good you should theoretically still good and if someone far worse beats you it's seen as more of a boon for them. |
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The 1st point is pretty much impossible to tackle. You can in theory implement decays but it's just impossible to come up with a workable system for this. Because reality is you just don't know. There's little guide points to go on.
I guess the obvious future examples. How do you price up Vika, Sharapova in their first matches back, and reality is nobody knows, you can only guess. So you just have to use your brain. General rule is back bigger prices and steer well clear of short prices. Clijsters pretty much got priced like a top 10 player within 1 tournament on her return. |
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clijsters is back?
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In 2009.
Clijsters was like 3.1 to beat Bartoli first match back who was ranked about 15 at the time iirc. Was a gift if you knew. But market was so quick to to move in on Clijsters. Because Clijsters ended up being favourite vs Safina in the QF's who was ranked either 1 or 2 at the time (and lost). |
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One match was basically enough for the market to say she was one of the best players in the world.
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Sabine Lisicki: Rough year but a top five serve always makes her a threat.
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No way does Sabine even have a top 5 serve anymore.
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http://www.thelocal.de/20160826/naked-swimmer-hospitalized-after-angler-hooks-his-penis
ouch  |
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http://www.thelocal.de/20160826/merkels-party-mate-wants-to-get-rid-of-karl-marx-streets
, |
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Wertheim's dark horse pasture is actually just name every player the public might have heard of rather than dark horses.
Because Wozniacki, Bouchard, Jankovic, Lisicki... The mix in a few youngsters to introduce which he has done with Konjuh. How is Kvitova vs Ostapenko not mentioned as R1 to watch, because no Americans are involved? (he mentions Serena vs Makarova, Errani vs Rogers, Osaka vs Vandeweghe) |
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mystics trying to bust
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from 43-20 into 55-47 in 3rd quarter
wnba fixx0rz! |
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your mother's hairy O !!
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBXZwdHbpAI
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Ladies and Gentlemen,
make your 2016 suicide tennis picks in the shiny and glorious new threads for them. |
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woohoo
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http://bigstory.ap.org/article/8feb2a512e4b44cf8718b838e23f1d83/lightning-strike-kills-more-300-reindeer-norway?
 , |
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Man Utd Facebook @MUFC_Facebook
I tried changing my hairstyle to be like pogba nd now my gf hates me Paul Pogba ✔ @paulpogba @MUFC_Facebook Change the girl mate, keep the hair |
