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I'm not even going to consider what would be a stunning upset on Sunday. The fact is that in 12 meetings, not only has Wawrinka never won a match against Nadal, he's never so much as taken a set. That really is journeyman territory.
Having said that, there might be a glimmer of hope for the Swiss no. 2 in the most recent relevant results. I think it's safe to discount results in 2010 and earlier. Since then, three of the five meetings have been on clay, so scratch those too. The other two, on hard, have also been the latest two; and there Stan got to three tiebreaks and one of them went to 12-10. So, from a "trajectory to current form" point of view, given that they're not meeting in the first week but in the final which Stan had to beat Novak to get to, could he possibly sneak a set this time? Or "will the occasion get to him".
But that's absolutely the maximum I think he'll manage to do. If I were in this market I'd go for Rafa 3-0 with a stop-loss on 3-1.
Opinions?
Having said that, there might be a glimmer of hope for the Swiss no. 2 in the most recent relevant results. I think it's safe to discount results in 2010 and earlier. Since then, three of the five meetings have been on clay, so scratch those too. The other two, on hard, have also been the latest two; and there Stan got to three tiebreaks and one of them went to 12-10. So, from a "trajectory to current form" point of view, given that they're not meeting in the first week but in the final which Stan had to beat Novak to get to, could he possibly sneak a set this time? Or "will the occasion get to him".
But that's absolutely the maximum I think he'll manage to do. If I were in this market I'd go for Rafa 3-0 with a stop-loss on 3-1.
Opinions?
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5 of those 12 were on clay.
the rest were close with numerous tie breaks and set points to wawrinka. he's much better these days, so yes he can easily take a set this time around depending if he has no 1st final nerves. |
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"numerous set points to Wawrinka" - got any link to your source for this?
I've already discounted both clay and earlier matches. And still the most likely outcome is a one-way street. If Rafa does go an early break down, my goodness fill yer boots! |
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Nadal 3-0 will be about evens. They met twice on hard late last year and played 3 TBs. I am certain Stan had a set point in at least one of them on his own serve and mugged it. He may have had more than one (probably 2 or 3 including Rafa's serve). TB in Shanghai was 12-10 rafa, so probably that one.
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Also a 14-12 TB in Toronto in 2010, more than likely had a SP then
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numerous tie breaks - 4 of the last 7 sets on hard courts have got to breakers. i'm sure wawrinka has had set points along the way as the scores in those breakers have been 7-5 8-6 12-10 and 14-12.
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and he may have had SPs before those TBs as well, he may even have served for a set at 5-4 or 6-5 in one of them and had Sps. I'm sure someone will have a breakdown
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nadal 3-0 should be odds against. 2.2+ i wouldn't back it at 2.38 but you can never tell how a player will play in his 1st big final.
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actually i wouldn't back anything cos i keep losing.
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If he doesn't choke like last time
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Wawa had a SP in the 2nd set TB at WTF (6.11.2013) at 6-5** (on Nadal's serve), Rafa won both his service points and then Wawa lost his serve at MP, 8-6 Rafa GSM.
Wawa also had a SP in Shanghai 11.10.2013 in the first set, 6-5* Rafa was serving to stay in the set and the game went from Rafa's point of view 0-15, 0-30, 15-30, 30-30, 30-40 SP Wawa, then deuce etc. eventually Rafa made it to the TB. The TB was also interesting, Wawa had two SPs at 8*-7 on his serve, and at 9-8* on Rafa's serve, but failed to convert both. Rafa succeeded on his 4th SP, 12-10 TB and set. So in these two matches from last year Wawa had 4 SPs, one of them when serving. None taken. |
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3-0 settled at around 2.1
I thought it would be slightly bigger but the fact is Wawrinka has not won a set yet in 12 matches so I suppose it can't be bigger than that. |
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My money is on Wawrinka playing below par due to "final pressure". Not sure how you check it but I would guess that "non big-boys" who make slam finals tend to play **** when their big chance comes along. Saying that Im wrong all the time lol. Only thing that is nailed on in sport is Nada beating Fed in slams. Its written all over Feds body language every time they play. Best odds ever was at aussie a few years ago, fed was slight fav going in proceeded to win first set and break in 2nd. Then got pumped again. Love Nadas victory speeches, bigs up the rivalry!!! The rivalry where hes won 8 slam matches in a row lol!!
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Yes Federer was 1.65 fav two years ago. Nadal was 4+ after Fed won the first set. I think those were the best prices ever
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There may well be truth in the big-moment theory against SW. These two have met in two finals and four QFs and there was only one TB (in the last of the latter).
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Hope he takes 1 set to make it interesting, at today the GOAT debate has been settled.
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Missed Rafa`s post-match interview....was it mentioned how his injuries ( blister and ankle ) are holding up, please?
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it is difficult to predict just how much Stan will be able to do, if anything, we will see what he is really made of tomorrow. I think he can take a set, but more then that i doubt it, winning 3 sets somehow would really be out of nowhere since his record against Nadal speaks very much for itself.
Im usually a big fan of laying crappy odds in finals cause at this level, most matches are 50-50 anyway but i dont think that is the case here cause none of their matchups were anything close to 50-50 so far. |
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i think it will be 3-1.
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where'd you get all that info Mouse Trap? On a free site?
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we are talking here about the greatest player of all time whose only career blips were losing his first wimb two finals to fed who is the greatest player in history of grass and then losing 3 major finals in a row to inspired tennis by joko.............another great................rafa knows history is being played out on sunday and he will destroy him.
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Rafa has not played the STANIMAL though
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I hope Wawrinka wins. If he takes the 1st set anything can happen.
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If I were in this market I'd go for Rafa 3-0 with a stop-loss on 3-1.
Think the OP had it in one there. My bet too. Funny that the 3-0 has drifted, cant see why? Easy win in semi for Rafa just to make it clearer for him. If he was 'injured' how did that happen? |
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The fed will be helping Stan out he's already riled up rafa quite rightly complaining about the ridiculous time wasting and grunting
Stan the man will win this rafa is not playing anywhere near as well as Stan .Rafas rather feeble serves could be smashed straight back down his grunting throat. Only Stan can blow it his self. |
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Only Stan can blow it his self.
Which is what he always does v Rafa...? |
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How many times have players played better than previous rounds when reaching their first GS final? Odd time perhaps, but not often.
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Becker possibly an exception to the rule when he won at Wimbers?
Most others (even the greats) didn't play that well in their first final. Interesting to think of them: Fed, Rafa, Djoko etc?? |
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Fed won his first, but only beat Philipousis (first GS final for him too)
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actully not quite true - he'd made us open final once before
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Rafa won his first...guessing the greats don't fall into this pattern so much...
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Djoko lost his first
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Nadull in his 1st slam final had a really mighty opponent, who will remember Mariano Puerta being a finalist?
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Hmmm, that makes his first win seem little less impressive yes.
I'd doubt could come up with a first time finalist who beat (or played well) a seasoned finalist. |
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Marat Safain
 won his first slam final against pistol pete in New York if the fellow had a bit of discipline could have bagged a rack of majors |
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rake even
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Decent shout there.
Are we going against this idea then, lol |
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Yeah, I think you've got it really. Can't see Stan taking anything but the first set. Strangely, out of the last 4 matches for Nadal, Federer will probably end up being the least competitive
Nishikori was close in each of his sets and Dimitrov was a set point easy put away missed from being 2-1 up. Federer folded after the first as I figured he would. Stan will probably fight harder to stay in the match but ultimately you want him to win the first so that you can get some decent odds on him. Worked out for me last night as Li started slowly and you could see that the only way she was going to lose that match was if she would not find any game....even in the second. So when Cibulkova drew even in the first I backed Li at 1.48...and felt that was worth a bet. I'm hoping Stan will show some balls in the first set and I can get a similar deal. Of course if he ****s the bed in the first set, we'll probably never see 1.2 again except in the very unlikely event that Nadal lets Stan back into the match, something he most probably won't do. But I also like your 3-0 wager with a stop loss at 3-1. I'll have to look at the numbers to see how this will work out. I agree that anything other than these two results seems highly unlikely. |