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mesmerised
23 Jan 14 16:45
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Date Joined: 10 Nov 10
| Topic/replies: 29,071 | Blogger: mesmerised's blog
Purely going by the h2h this could be as one sided as the stats suggest, 12-0 Nadal, 26-0 in sets, having said that 3 of the last 4 sets were won on a tie breaker, it's still a terrible match up for Wawa as well as he's been playing the past 2 years not a player like Novak to hit quicker and acute angles to bother RN forehand it just feeds straight into it, on the upside for Wawa the the new plexicushion is not bringing out Nadal's best game with below par matches against both Dimi and Nishi, back Wawa to take a set for the first time if you're not trading. 3-1 Nadal.

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Replies: 600
By:
n88uk
When: 23 Jan 14 16:51
Jinx thread.
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 23 Jan 14 17:02
You've obviously put your house on Rafa.  I am Nadal's biggest fan, but I fear his run against federer will come to an end.  I was always pro Rafa pre tourni (see my posts), however his chances are slim versus Federer.  I fear Federer will just aim towards his forehand side and exaberate the lister even deeper.
Nonetheless rafa may well win, but his hand injury will worsen vs Warinka making at LAY OF NADAL at 2.0 OUTRIGHT a perfect bet to a perfect Australian Open so far for me.
By:
kingsroadbloke
When: 23 Jan 14 19:49
He's got to get past a resurgent federer first even though the head to head favours nadal strongly if he plays like he played against dimitrov a player he should be blowing away he's got no chance three doubles in one game against dimitrov nothing on his balls at all not the true nadal dimitrov missed so many chances in that match nadal was awful a straight lay at even money or lay to trade actually the layers are out because he has drifted to 2.06 I'm unconvinced and have taken him on if he does beat roger it will be a very tight match could go five sets but for me this is rogers best chance to win another major in a long time.
By:
mesmerised
When: 23 Jan 14 22:55
Well, if it did become a war of attrition and went the distance I know which player I'd be backing.
By:
mesmerised
When: 24 Jan 14 13:14
GREEDISGOOD
I am Nadal's biggest fan, but I fear his run against federer will come to an end.  I was always pro Rafa pre tourni (see my posts), however his chances are slim versus Federer.  I fear Federer will just aim towards his forehand side and exaberate the lister even deeper.
Nonetheless rafa may well win, but his hand injury will worsen vs Warinka making at LAY OF NADAL at 2.0 OUTRIGHT a perfect bet to a perfect Australian Open so far for me.



Your jinx worked, surely you didn't think he'd lose.
By:
mesmerised
When: 24 Jan 14 23:06
I think Greedisgood, has filed for bankruptcy, no word from him todayLaugh
By:
aaronh
When: 24 Jan 14 23:31
would appear that greed is.. not good

Wink
By:
mesmerised
When: 25 Jan 14 00:18
Amazing how people disappear though, at least have the balls to say you were wrong.
By:
stu
When: 25 Jan 14 09:25
26-0 in sets

For a men's GS final that surely has to be the most one-sided record ever?
By:
Kevbetting superstar
When: 25 Jan 14 10:51
Greedisgood - how much did you lose laying Rafa outright?
By:
GRANTCKING
When: 25 Jan 14 12:24
VAMOS 14 and counting LoveLoveLove
By:
mnbfrankel
When: 25 Jan 14 14:20
If you consider H2H, Grandslam final apperance and Ranking there is only one player you can back here. To make it interesting just had a look at the last years draw, Djokovic played an epic 5 setter againt Stan and in the next round beat Berdy 3-1 before winning the final. This year Wawrinka has done exactly the same, a long 5 setter against Nole and a 3-1 win againt Berdych http://www.cricketscore.com/draw/SI695IzR/A7yvQom7/#draw

This is not enough to back a player, but just saying Grin
By:
mnbfrankel
When: 25 Jan 14 14:22
Came through few arguments between the users about Stan having set points in his previous matches against Nadal, in their last meeting at WTF Stan had a set Point opportunity in the second set, look at the point by point details here http://www.cricketscore.com/match/hSSi8Fjf/#point-by-point;2
By:
mesmerised
When: 25 Jan 14 15:30
I'm getting seriously concerned for greedisgoodSad over 24 hours and still no word.

mnbfrankel, I think WaWa's fitness can't be questioned, Stan is one player Nadal won't be able to wear down in that department.
By:
mesmerised
When: 25 Jan 14 18:51
Nadal Highlights:
• "70-70 Club" on serve - 70% 1st serves in play - 75% 1st serve points won - winning 62% on 2nd serves as well - saved 19 of the 27 break points faced
• Solid returning - especially against 2nd serves (56% won) - won 30% of return games
• Big forehand weapon - 87 forehand winners

Wawrinka Highlights:
• Huge 1st serve - 62 aces - 81% 1st serve points won - top speed 221 kmh (137 mph)
• Very effective when he can attack the net (75% won), but less so when he finishes the point from the baseline (49% won)
• Forehand has been his dominant shot from the backcourt (91 winners) - backhand, while spectacular at times, has not been quite so steady (47 winners but 92 unforced errors).
For additional insight, visit www.ibm.com/sports.


Rafael Nadal        Stanislas Wawrinka
32    Aces    62
11    Double Faults    17
30%    Unreturned Serves    34%
70%    1st Serve %    58%
75%    1st Serve Points    81%
62%    2nd Serve Points    53%
8    Broken    8
27    Break Points Faced    21
83    Games Served    92
90%    Service Games Held    91%
205 kmh/127 mph    Broken    221 kmh/137 mph
77%    Returns in Play    72%
34%    1st Return Points Won    29%
56%    2nd Return Points Won    48%
25    Breaks of Serve    18
56    Break Points    45
45%    Pct. Converted    40%
84    Return Games Played    92
30%    Return Games Won %    20%
87    Forehand Winners    91
78    Forehand Unforced Errors    90
31    Backhand Winners    47
48    Backhand Unforced Errors    92
179    Winners    249
142    Unforced Errors    203
70 of 97
Net Points Won    87 of 116
72%    Net Points Won    75%
54%    Baseline Points Won    49%
67    Games Lost    84
1    Sets Lost    4
5 of 13 (39%)
Challenges Won
5 of 24 (21%)
13:56    Time on Court    13:46
By:
aaronh
When: 25 Jan 14 19:02
• Very effective when he can attack the net (75% won), but less so when he finishes the point from the baseline (49% won)


I believe Fed had a similar % won over the tournament at net too but much lower vs Nadal
By:
mesmerised
When: 25 Jan 14 20:41
Interesting to read Federer admitting that he has to change his entire game to beat Nadal, and that playing murray/nadal is like night and day, 32yo and he clocks on.
By:
mesmerised
When: 26 Jan 14 02:16
Tipped on tw@tter, Wawa to win a set at Korals 1.8

What is the point in 'Nadal to win a set' marketsLaugh

be up at 8 for the last match and glad it will be over,  it kills your body clock.
By:
therhino
When: 26 Jan 14 07:58
Nadal 1.18 here, 1.2 with the TAB Shocked
By:
shiraz
When: 26 Jan 14 08:12
1.22 now rhino, will be trying to get a bit on that let's see how much they will take.
By:
therhino
When: 26 Jan 14 08:15
I don't have a TAB account Cry

Can't recall them having a bigger price than BF on something like this ever...
By:
therhino
When: 26 Jan 14 08:18
Nice to see the GOAT back down under bringing the trophy in.
By:
shiraz
When: 26 Jan 14 08:22
It is unusual these days, they used to have excellent prices about 4/5 years ago on tennis.

By the time I called they would'nt take anything and now they are down to 1.18.
By:
nugget
When: 26 Jan 14 08:39
robin soderling
By:
therhino
When: 26 Jan 14 09:00
Interesting start Shocked
By:
therhino
When: 26 Jan 14 09:01
ShockedScared
By:
milla445
When: 26 Jan 14 09:04
Stan showing absolutely no nerves. Yet. This might be a contest after all.
By:
DStyle
When: 26 Jan 14 09:04
WAWAWEEWA
By:
therhino
When: 26 Jan 14 09:04
one way traffic
By:
breadnbutter
When: 26 Jan 14 09:04
crowd is so behind Wawrinka Shocked

have laid Nadal at 1.18 and aint cashing back in  till its levels you devils

1.33  is shoite for a break,1.38 after hold  ...market in love with raffa and wont budge even if he looses first 2 imo Grin
By:
pauliow
When: 26 Jan 14 09:05
Wow this has all the makings of a cracking final
By:
therhino
When: 26 Jan 14 09:08
Shocked
By:
DStyle
When: 26 Jan 14 09:08
taking the forehand on the rise with his bh.

DO HIM STAN

that's the way.
By:
therhino
When: 26 Jan 14 09:09
ShockedShocked
By:
doridoru
When: 26 Jan 14 09:10
Welcome to the Warwinka train!
By:
milla445
When: 26 Jan 14 09:12
On fire.
By:
DStyle
When: 26 Jan 14 09:12
the tactics are entirely right, but there are two problems.

i. the execution has to be consistently superb.

ii. rafa's been found out like against djokovic (rome/monte carlo 2011)and adapted by going to the fh more, so both wings will have to stand up.
By:
therhino
When: 26 Jan 14 09:13
stunning tennis. world no 1 getting blown off the court
By:
DStyle
When: 26 Jan 14 09:14
fortunately i've said it before. at his best, he has more than enough for any of the top 4, even nadal on clay.

all between the ears.
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