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problem for Murray is the proximity of Cinncy to the USO and Paris to the O2
he will always tank those events to prepare for the bigger tourneys, so he's losing the best part of 1000 there for a start best chances to close the gap are O2 and Oz |
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I hear he is going to give up tennis having achieved his main goal and open an organic veg shop in Notting Hill...!
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You should probably be looking towards Murray going to the number 3 spot after Australia . Highly likely he will be number 3 providing Nadal actually plays tennis between now and then.
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You also have omitted the 750 points Murray loses in a couple of weeks without even playing.
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Points to defend between now and end of Australian Open:
Djokovic - 8080 Murray - 5650 Nadal - 0 So with that taken into account: Nadal - 6860 Djokovic - 4230 Murray - 3710 They are better hard court players, but they have to share a lot of the points, I expect Djokovic to dominate on the whole on hard courts. 3150 points is a big gap to catch up. |
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You also have omitted the 750 points Murray loses in a couple of weeks without even playing.
what is the very first line |
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Nadal on hard courts his knees are finnish
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The Olympics. Djokovic also loses 270 points.
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n88uk
current rankings 1. Djokovic Novak Serbia 12310 2. Murray Andy Great Britain 9360 opening post 1. Djokovic Novak Serbia 12040 2. Murray Andy Great Britain 8610 i already deducted them |
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that was a slow hard court in indian wells as many players cited, and then he skipped miami
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Ok. But all my other points still stand anyway. It's Murray's master series events which massively let him down.
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Ayers why are you digging up 2 year old 'Murray will never win a slam' threads when he won a slam last SEPTEMBER?
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what other points, nadal looked so bad against darcis I wonder whether he will even bother again, i owuldnt be surprised if he missed the next two masters
and the olympics i explained, i was highlighting some comments not thread titles lurka, murray has taken such a beating on these forums last two years its time for taste of medicine for at least a day imo |
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He will play 1 masters warm up to USO.
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Murray will have to win at least one of USO or Australia. Djokovic is still very much the favourite for both.
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he is barely the favourite both of those going by odds,
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Yer but it's a overreaction to Murray beating him at Wimbledon. Eg. Right now Djokovic is a bigger price to win them than he was Wimbledon, well one of those is utter stupidity. Beating Djokovic on grass doesn't have much relevance to what will happen on hard courts.
Also I find this ironic, because I remember discussing with you pre-Wimbledon how Djokovic's price to win it was madness, so you have changed your tune. |
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i never thought murray would win wimbledon if he played novak but the number 1 spot regardless has never been out of reach or questioned by me becuase he is capable of cleaning up on hc's,
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Combining Canada, Cincy, Shanghai, Paris and the O2, between now and the Oz, Murray has 1270 out of a possible 5500 so there is plenty of scope to add more from those if he is motivated
going into 2014 clay he has only 280 points from Rome, Madrid, Monte Carlo and Roland Garros from a maximum 5000 so clearly has plenty to gain there before Wimbledon 2014 he has 4200 to defend from USO, Aus Open and Miami which account for over half his points not including the 2000 from Wimbledon basically 9 heavy scoring opportunities and 3 where he can lose significant points between now and Wimby 2014 definitely possible if he ups his game in the Masters for a start - 870 to defend between Canada, Cinncy, Paris and Shanghai ffs, could get more than that by winning one of them |
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He will improve some of those, but others are tough. Eg. Paris, how motivated is he really going into Paris.
Djokovic ultimately is still the best hard court player until we see otherwise. |
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not that it really counts but I really think Muzz had a shot at winning Oz this year but developed terrible blisters in the second or third set and could not really run. Had he won that match (was a set up, lost breaker in second) after winning USO we might be calling him the best HC player currently considering he also won Miami
anyway, as I said on the first reply, you are correct he will not be trying in Cinnci or Paris so he needs to defend USO title, win O2 and Oz and pick up points on the clay. If he does all that he will be #1 |
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n88uk,
yes or no do you think he will be number 1 by the end of the australian open next year? if not where? #2? #3? |
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silence is deafening
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No.
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Second question is too dependent on Nadal's fitness. But I think it's far more likely he is #3 than #1. On the same count I would edge towards #2 being a slight favourite overall.
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I agree, no
but only because he is not prioritising it if he set out to maximise points he could deffo do it but he will sacrifice MS events to focus on slams there is the chance that Djoko has a mare at some point, like at the O2, and Muzz wins it causing a big swing of points but not likely |
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my predictions by end of oz (assuming nadal puts in some kinda effort over the n american/asian swing)
#1 murray #2 djokvic #3 nadal #4 federer see ya later |
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He claims he is prioritising it btw judorick.
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no he doesn't, he said yesterday when asked that he thought #1 was too far away and that he is targeting winning more slam titles over rankings
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The problem is if he starts prioritising all those events, it might jeopardise the big events, which then works out overall worse for him. Making number 1 is about conistency across the board. The reason Murray isn't making it, and is nowhere near is because Djokovic is the out and out #2 on clay, Murray is barely in the top 10, that is where he can't catch Djoko.
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Very different interview to he's given in the past judorick. That is code for I am not good enough for #1, and is a PR answer anyway.
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That is the line Serena gave for years, and then when she finally got back to #1 she was in tears over it.
#1 would be worth absolutely gazillions to someone like Murray in his contracts. It's hard for Murray to focus on something that he is miles away from isn't it. |
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well I follow everything on daily basis and his twitter, he has just said that his next priority is to defend the USO title
if he does that then he might re-address the no.1 issue but he's not gonna go balls out in Canada and Cinncy to get the points for the ranking at the expense of defending the USO (have you seen how close Cinncy is to USO?) like wise he won't be going all out in Paris so to get there, he will need to defend USO, win O2 and Oz the interview was yesterday after the match and he was asked directly 'will you be focusing on the #1 now?' and his reply was 'winning slam titles is my priority' |
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Cincinnati the same distance to USO as Queens?
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was to Wimbledon.
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The same distance as Brisbane to AO.
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A lot of slam winners win that tournament 2 weeks before.
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yes but it is back to back with Canada
If he goes deep/wins in Canada you can expect a tactical QF tank or injury scare withdrawal at Cinncy |