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AyersRock
08 Jul 13 09:11
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Date Joined: 27 Oct 11
| Topic/replies: 8,683 | Blogger: AyersRock's blog
this'll be their rankings after olympics points are dropped next month

1.    Djokovic Novak      Serbia    12040
2.    Murray Andy      Great Britain    8610


muray-djokovic

to defend
90 - canada -  1000
90 in cincinnati - 600
2000 in us open - 1200 
180 - tokyo/beijing - 500
600 - shanghai - 1000
90 - paris - 10
400 - london - 1500
250 brisbane / - 0
1200 australia - 2000

to me it looks like by australia next year if he maintains final consistency of the back of wimbledon and betters novak in the big tourneys for the rest of the season, given 22 of his 27 tournament wins have been on hard court, the next 6 months on hard courts is the start of what is undoubtedly Andy Murray's fate to be the World Number 1 player, bring on Australia 2014Cool

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Replies: 80
By:
judorick
When: 08 Jul 13 09:16
problem for Murray is the proximity of Cinncy to the USO and Paris to the O2

he will always tank those events to prepare for the bigger tourneys, so he's losing the best part of 1000 there for a start

best chances to close the gap are O2 and Oz
By:
The Leopard
When: 08 Jul 13 09:59
I hear he is going to give up tennis having achieved his main goal and open an organic veg shop in Notting Hill...!
By:
n88uk
When: 08 Jul 13 10:35
You should probably be looking towards Murray going to the number 3 spot after Australia Wink. Highly likely he will be number 3 providing Nadal actually plays tennis between now and then.
By:
n88uk
When: 08 Jul 13 10:36
You also have omitted the 750 points Murray loses in a couple of weeks without even playing.
By:
n88uk
When: 08 Jul 13 10:48
Points to defend between now and end of Australian Open:
Djokovic - 8080
Murray - 5650
Nadal - 0

So with that taken into account:
Nadal - 6860
Djokovic - 4230
Murray - 3710

They are better hard court players, but they have to share a lot of the points, I expect Djokovic to dominate on the whole on hard courts. 3150 points is a big gap to catch up.
By:
AyersRock
When: 08 Jul 13 10:54
You also have omitted the 750 points Murray loses in a couple of weeks without even playing.


what is the very first line
By:
AyersRock
When: 08 Jul 13 10:55
Nadal on hard courtsLaugh his knees are finnish
By:
n88uk
When: 08 Jul 13 10:56
The Olympics. Djokovic also loses 270 points.
By:
n88uk
When: 08 Jul 13 10:58

Jul 8, 2013 -- 4:54AM, AyersRock wrote:


You also have omitted the 750 points Murray loses in a couple of weeks without even playing.what is the very first line


Nadal on hard courts in 2013. 6/0 100%. Wink. If he can win Indian Wells, I wouldn't count on him being so bad that he can't even post consistent quarter finals +.

By:
AyersRock
When: 08 Jul 13 10:59
n88uk

current rankings

1.    Djokovic Novak      Serbia    12310
2.    Murray Andy      Great Britain    9360


opening post

1.    Djokovic Novak      Serbia    12040
2.    Murray Andy      Great Britain    8610


i already deducted them
By:
AyersRock
When: 08 Jul 13 10:59
that was a slow hard court in indian wells as many players cited, and then he skipped miamiWink
By:
n88uk
When: 08 Jul 13 11:00
Ok. But all my other points still stand anyway. It's Murray's master series events which massively let him down.
By:
lurka
When: 08 Jul 13 11:02
Ayers why are you digging up 2 year old 'Murray will never win a slam' threads when he won a slam last SEPTEMBER?
By:
AyersRock
When: 08 Jul 13 11:03
what other points, nadal looked so bad against darcis I wonder whether he will even bother again, i owuldnt be surprised if he missed the next two masters

and the olympics i explained,

i was highlighting some comments not thread titles lurka, murray has taken such a beating on these forums last two years its time for taste of medicine for at least a day imo
By:
n88uk
When: 08 Jul 13 11:05
He will play 1 masters warm up to USO.
By:
n88uk
When: 08 Jul 13 11:06
Murray will have to win at least one of USO or Australia. Djokovic is still very much the favourite for both.
By:
AyersRock
When: 08 Jul 13 11:08
he is barely the favourite both of those going by oddsConfused,
By:
n88uk
When: 08 Jul 13 11:11
Yer but it's a overreaction to Murray beating him at Wimbledon. Eg. Right now Djokovic is a bigger price to win them than he was Wimbledon, well one of those is utter stupidity. Beating Djokovic on grass doesn't have much relevance to what will happen on hard courts.

Also I find this ironic, because I remember discussing with you pre-Wimbledon how Djokovic's price to win it was madness, so you have changed your tune.
By:
AyersRock
When: 08 Jul 13 11:17
Confused i never thought murray would win wimbledon if he played novak but the number 1 spot regardless has never been out of reach or questioned by me becuase he is capable of cleaning up on hc's,
By:
judorick
When: 08 Jul 13 11:30
Combining Canada, Cincy, Shanghai, Paris and the O2, between now and the Oz, Murray has 1270 out of a possible 5500 so there is plenty of scope to add more from those if he is motivated

going into 2014 clay he has only 280 points from Rome, Madrid, Monte Carlo and Roland Garros from a maximum 5000 so clearly has plenty to gain there before Wimbledon 2014

he has 4200 to defend from USO, Aus Open and Miami which account for over half his points not including the 2000 from Wimbledon

basically 9 heavy scoring opportunities and 3 where he can lose significant points between now and Wimby 2014

definitely possible if he ups his game in the Masters for a start - 870 to defend between Canada, Cinncy, Paris and Shanghai ffs, could get more than that by winning one of them
By:
n88uk
When: 08 Jul 13 11:38
He will improve some of those, but others are tough. Eg. Paris, how motivated is he really going into Paris.

Djokovic ultimately is still the best hard court player until we see otherwise.
By:
judorick
When: 08 Jul 13 11:44
not that it really counts but I really think Muzz had a shot at winning Oz this year but developed terrible blisters in the second or third set and could not really run. Had he won that match (was a set up, lost breaker in second) after winning USO we might be calling him the best HC player currently considering he also won Miami

anyway, as I said on the first reply, you are correct he will not be trying in Cinnci or Paris so he needs to defend USO title, win O2 and Oz and pick up points on the clay. If he does all that he will be #1
By:
AyersRock
When: 08 Jul 13 11:45
n88uk,

yes or no do you think he will be number 1 by the end of the australian open next year? if not where? #2? #3?
By:
AyersRock
When: 08 Jul 13 11:53
silence is deafeningLaugh
By:
n88uk
When: 08 Jul 13 11:57
No.
By:
n88uk
When: 08 Jul 13 11:59
Second question is too dependent on Nadal's fitness. But I think it's far more likely he is #3 than #1. On the same count I would edge towards #2 being a slight favourite overall.
By:
judorick
When: 08 Jul 13 12:00
I agree, no

but only because he is not prioritising it

if he set out to maximise points he could deffo do it but he will sacrifice MS events to focus on slams

there is the chance that Djoko has a mare at some point, like at the O2, and Muzz wins it causing a big swing of points but not likely
By:
AyersRock
When: 08 Jul 13 12:01
my predictions by end of oz (assuming nadal puts in some kinda effort over the n american/asian swing)

#1 murray
#2 djokvic
#3 nadal
#4 federer

see ya later
By:
n88uk
When: 08 Jul 13 12:02
He claims he is prioritising it btw judorick.
By:
judorick
When: 08 Jul 13 12:04
no he doesn't, he said yesterday when asked that he thought #1 was too far away and that he is targeting winning more slam titles over rankings
By:
n88uk
When: 08 Jul 13 12:04
The problem is if he starts prioritising all those events, it might jeopardise the big events, which then works out overall worse for him. Making number 1 is about conistency across the board. The reason Murray isn't making it, and is nowhere near is because Djokovic is the out and out #2 on clay, Murray is barely in the top 10, that is where he can't catch Djoko.
By:
n88uk
When: 08 Jul 13 12:05
Very different interview to he's given in the past judorick. That is code for I am not good enough for #1, and is a PR answer anyway.
By:
n88uk
When: 08 Jul 13 12:07
That is the line Serena gave for years, and then when she finally got back to #1 she was in tears over it.

#1 would be worth absolutely gazillions to someone like Murray in his contracts.

It's hard for Murray to focus on something that he is miles away from isn't it.
By:
judorick
When: 08 Jul 13 12:13
well I follow everything on daily basis and his twitter, he has just said that his next priority is to defend the USO title

if he does that then he might re-address the no.1 issue

but he's not gonna go balls out in Canada and Cinncy to get the points for the ranking at the expense of defending the USO (have you seen how close Cinncy is to USO?)

like wise he won't be going all out in Paris

so to get there, he will need to defend USO, win O2 and Oz

the interview was yesterday after the match and he was asked directly 'will you be focusing on the #1 now?'

and his reply was 'winning slam titles is my priority'
By:
n88uk
When: 08 Jul 13 12:15
Cincinnati the same distance to USO as Queens?
By:
n88uk
When: 08 Jul 13 12:15
was to Wimbledon.
By:
n88uk
When: 08 Jul 13 12:16
The same distance as Brisbane to AO.
By:
n88uk
When: 08 Jul 13 12:16
A lot of slam winners win that tournament 2 weeks before.
By:
judorick
When: 08 Jul 13 12:17
yes but it is back to back with Canada

If he goes deep/wins in Canada you can expect a tactical QF tank or injury scare withdrawal at Cinncy
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