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Srichaphan or Ancic?
02 Jun 13 08:48
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Date Joined: 18 May 03
| Topic/replies: 56,153 | Blogger: Srichaphan or Ancic?'s blog
What's your best bet here? Is Ferrer going to win again? His record against Anderson is 1-1, but this is on his surface.

My choice of bet would be the total games. As Ferrer plays fewer tiebreaks than most players I think that this is going to be unders, which at odds above evens is good considering the Ferrer 3-0 is at evens and the Anderson +6.5 games is at 1.9s.
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Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 10:17 AM BST
In your view, but not in mine.
Report Eddie the eagle June 2, 2013 10:22 AM BST
S or A, you can argue as long as you want, but your first use of stats will never be correct.
You can't look at all matches where the favourite started 1.19 or less to compile odds for a 1.16 favourite.
Report NicolNicol June 2, 2013 10:26 AM BST
Where are you even getting odds data from? I want in on this.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 10:26 AM BST
good start for Ferrer
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 10:26 AM BST
all on my tennis database
Report NicolNicol June 2, 2013 10:28 AM BST
Nice, I only track player stats on mine. I haven't figured out where to data mine historical odds data from yet.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 10:28 AM BST
I could tell you nice stats like, for example, in this round of the French Open since 2005, just one out of seventeen French players have won 3-0.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 10:30 AM BST
I just put all the data into a database, then filter it for the 4th round of the French Open and use a s/sheet to analyse it.
Report NicolNicol June 2, 2013 10:31 AM BST
I keep mine written on post-it notes which are haphazardly stuck around my house.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 10:31 AM BST
A double break here would be nice for my total games bet.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 10:31 AM BST
Shocked
Report AZ91 June 2, 2013 10:32 AM BST
im anxious as to how this ends up...seeing as Ferrer was a set up (and almost i think a break up at 15-40) the last time they played and he basically threw it away
Report NicolNicol June 2, 2013 10:32 AM BST
Yeah, I don't know what I was worrying about earlier. Anderson looks more UE than man today.
Report AZ91 June 2, 2013 10:32 AM BST
he knows he has to be aggressive to get anything here and with that comes the danger of committing more UE
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 10:33 AM BST
Anderson needs his serve to have an effect and a) this is on clay so it is lessened and b) it is against Ferrer, one of the best returners. Without that serve, he loses a large amount of points when it goes to long rallies.
Report AZ91 June 2, 2013 10:33 AM BST
brave 1.05     £229,784
Report AZ91 June 2, 2013 10:34 AM BST
In saying that SoA, does this make this match similar to Haas vs Isner
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 10:34 AM BST
I think you have to add into the equation too that Ferrer has a good chance of getting to the latter stages here this year, and will want to win quickly to ensure he is not fatigued.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 10:36 AM BST
Well, Haas is not in Ferrer's league in terms of returning serve.
Report AZ91 June 2, 2013 10:36 AM BST

Jun 2, 2013 -- 4:36AM, Srichaphan or Ancic? wrote:


Well, Haas is not in Ferrer's league in terms of returning serve.


i think Haas handles the big 4 better than ferrer

Report NicolNicol June 2, 2013 10:37 AM BST
Haas vs Ferrer from a couple of weeks ago is one of my favourite matches of the year.
Report AZ91 June 2, 2013 10:38 AM BST
ferrer looks like lord farquaad from shrek - http://static.comicvine.com/uploads/original/2/25521/637957-shrek06_lordfarq...
Report AZ91 June 2, 2013 10:39 AM BST
http://static.comicvine.com/uploads/original/2/25521/637957-shrek06_lordfarq...
Report youaintseenmeright June 2, 2013 10:39 AM BST
ferrer - federer, the one we should get will be interesting, the first time i'll have been interested in a fed dave match for years.... can he do it and overturn the 13 or is it 14-0 h2h. he wont get a better chance imo
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 10:40 AM BST
Anderson looks like Plug from the Beano

http://www.beano.com/media/80776/character-bash-plug.jpg
Report AZ91 June 2, 2013 10:41 AM BST
Laugh
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 10:43 AM BST
Ferrer's record of winning matches having won the first set 6-3 is 94-7.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 10:43 AM BST
(since 2005)
Report AZ91 June 2, 2013 10:43 AM BST
what's his record of winning matches 6-4?
Report AZ91 June 2, 2013 10:43 AM BST
(6-4. first set)
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 10:44 AM BST
67-14
Report AZ91 June 2, 2013 10:44 AM BST
so clearly ferrer likes serving first
Report AZ91 June 2, 2013 10:44 AM BST
is this what you would call fishing?
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 10:45 AM BST
Anderson's record of winning matches from 3-6 in the first set is 5-13.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 10:46 AM BST
And from 4-6 is 4-28. Does this mean that he dislikes serving first?!
Report youaintseenmeright June 2, 2013 10:47 AM BST
here's one for you s&a, whats wawrinka's record like v deep lying players like gasquet
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 10:47 AM BST
baseline ralliers?
Report youaintseenmeright June 2, 2013 10:48 AM BST
yeah, in slam 5 setters to be precise
Report AZ91 June 2, 2013 10:49 AM BST
i don't have a clue how you've compiled these statistics but your excel spreadsheet must look very very interesting. all i need is your I.P. address now...
Report Java June 2, 2013 10:49 AM BST
Well Anderson isn't going to break, and his only hope of winning points is a big first serve.  It's a complete mismatch.

I'd be surprised if Anderson won more than a handful of points on the Ferrer serve all match as he is so limited.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 10:50 AM BST
It's about 22-9
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 10:51 AM BST
I dont think Wawrinka and Gasquet specifically have played in a Slam.
Report AZ91 June 2, 2013 10:52 AM BST
DF 14-3 KA (UE)
Report youaintseenmeright June 2, 2013 10:53 AM BST
ty s or a
Report youaintseenmeright June 2, 2013 10:53 AM BST
no they have only played once, its an interesting game price wise.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 10:54 AM BST
can someone tell me who is serving, as my dodgy stream has gone.
Report AZ91 June 2, 2013 10:54 AM BST
anderson. its 30-40 BP
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 10:54 AM BST
thx
Report AZ91 June 2, 2013 10:54 AM BST
S o A spelt a word wrong SurprisedSurprisedSurprisedSurprisedSurprisedSurprisedSurprised
Report AZ91 June 2, 2013 10:55 AM BST
break ferrer
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 10:55 AM BST
nice :)
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 10:55 AM BST
Unders on the total games still at 1.2s!
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 10:58 AM BST
Surely Williams is free money v Vinci today too?
Report AZ91 June 2, 2013 10:58 AM BST
surely it's more efficient to focus your tennis trading career on one market as oppose to all these different markets? that more time you focus on a single market i.e. sets market or match odds market, the better you become acquainted with the trends and potential outcomes associated with the odds given, I've only ever really tried match odds and i'd like to think i do a pretty good job at it... isn't it cumbersome doing all these different markets?
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 10:58 AM BST
sometimes the odds don't make that possible AZ91.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 10:59 AM BST
The top punters, I am sure, will be those who can look at every match and pick out the best betting market for it.
Report AZ91 June 2, 2013 11:00 AM BST
i presume you are talkinng about yourself
Report AZ91 June 2, 2013 11:00 AM BST
talking*
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 11:00 AM BST
no, I dont do that a lot.
Report AZ91 June 2, 2013 11:00 AM BST
Wink only pullin ya leg
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 11:00 AM BST
just that on this match, I wanted bigger than the 1.1s on Ferrer.
Report AZ91 June 2, 2013 11:01 AM BST
anderson isn't playing too bad, it's just that ferrer is in top gear and top gear ferrer > top gear anderson
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 11:02 AM BST
I thought that if the handicap was so large, that meant that the market/bookies knew that Ferrer was going to win easily. If he was going to win easily, then total games was going to be unders, and the odds on it were above evens, so I checked the stats for this round of the French Open and compared what they showed to the odds, making that, in my view, a value bet.
Report AZ91 June 2, 2013 11:03 AM BST
I see, good observation.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 11:03 AM BST
As was the 3-0 odds, but they were at lesser price, so the total games made more sense to me.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 11:03 AM BST
an astute punter would be able to bet on all of those markets and make a profit whatever happened on this match, probably. I can't do that type of thing very easily.
Report AZ91 June 2, 2013 11:04 AM BST
these methods seem to require more stress than the £ to be made is worth. i only really do match odds markets and i'm very happy with the £ i make
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 11:05 AM BST
hence the database and s/sheets etc. they make it easier.
Report AZ91 June 2, 2013 11:06 AM BST
but surely minimal stress is better. match odds = minimal stress, good £. can't complain. somethings are just better when simple. the beauty of match odds market are despite **** up's during play (which affect all other markets, unders, set betting etc...) the final result is what matters
Report AZ91 June 2, 2013 11:06 AM BST
haas vs isner. harrison vs isner. prime example
Report Latalomne June 2, 2013 11:07 AM BST
Anderson struggling on every service game and finding it impossible to get into any receiving games.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 11:07 AM BST
Match odds isnt necessarily minimal stress. Yesterday I bet on Ormaeachea at her lowest possible odds for a minor trade and her odds shot off in the opposite direction with no way out.
Report AZ91 June 2, 2013 11:08 AM BST

Jun 2, 2013 -- 5:07AM, Srichaphan or Ancic? wrote:


Match odds isnt necessarily minimal stress. Yesterday I bet on Ormaeachea at her lowest possible odds for a minor trade and her odds shot off in the opposite direction with no way out.


WTA - anything can happen (as you said 2 days ago in a thread i believe). i can't stand WTA, whatever looks like may happen, i go against, and it works out for me for a good trade. that's the way i see WTA

Report shiraz June 2, 2013 11:08 AM BST
It's not cumbersome AZ91, if you already know where you think the odds should be at certain stages during a match.  e.g In this match if Ferrer goes 2-0 up in sets then I already know what odds I would back or lay to win 3-0.
Report Java June 2, 2013 11:08 AM BST
Andersen is terrible.  So little to offer.  And what does that say of Raonic?
Report AZ91 June 2, 2013 11:08 AM BST

Jun 2, 2013 -- 5:08AM, shiraz wrote:


It's not cumbersome AZ91, if you already know where you think the odds should be at certain stages during a match.

Report AZ91 June 2, 2013 11:08 AM BST
shiraz : i meant making a decision from the start of the match
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 11:09 AM BST
I think you either have to plan your betting strategy way in advance, or be able to quickly get to the stats to check the bet before you do it.
Report AZ91 June 2, 2013 11:10 AM BST
speaking of stats. the IBM slamtracker has the "keys to the match" tab. do you guys think that is really relevant to who actually wins the match? how are the "keys to the match" criterea decided? surely it's based on data and stats
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 11:10 AM BST
the dodgy stream has returned Excited
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 11:10 AM BST
no, its completely pointless.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 11:11 AM BST
there are two important stats to matches I think - aces, and first serve % compared to second serve %. Everything else is just dressing.
Report AZ91 June 2, 2013 11:12 AM BST
surely the % of points won on 1st serve is more important than aces.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 11:13 AM BST
I usually trust a player who has a greater % of first serve points won than second, and distrust those who are the other way round, and it is quite useful.
Report AZ91 June 2, 2013 11:13 AM BST
i think that is the most important thing. #
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 11:15 AM BST
I guess it is a stat that can be considered with knowledge of who is playing. Aces in a match between Ferrer and Hewitt, for example, would be more or less irrelevant, but between Federer and Djokovic they could be quite important as in rallying they will be evenly matched and the aces are effectively free points.
Report shiraz June 2, 2013 11:15 AM BST
Same applies pre match but you have much more time to place bets at the odds you want.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 11:16 AM BST
Federer is one of the players I would suggest rarely loses having hit more aces in a match. Aces are linked to confidence, and he is a confidence player, like a number of them.
Report AZ91 June 2, 2013 11:16 AM BST
i think each match up is unique and each match up requires different sets of stats to be focused on (obviously dependent on weakness/strengths of the players and their key attributes and playing styles)
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 11:17 AM BST
incidentally, I noticed Ivo Karlovic was on Twitter earlier arguing that they should have a fifth set tiebreak. I thought to myself, no surprise there then, considering he is unable to win without tiebreaks.
Report AZ91 June 2, 2013 11:17 AM BST
Laugh
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 11:18 AM BST
Kuznetsova beating Kerber Sad
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 11:19 AM BST
how does she play badly all year and then do well in Grand Slams?
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? June 2, 2013 11:19 AM BST
she/he
Report Latalomne June 2, 2013 11:23 AM BST
Two horrible shots in three points....
Report Java June 2, 2013 11:27 AM BST
Andersen is just an embarrassment.
Report NicolNicol June 2, 2013 11:30 AM BST
I go for set betting if the odds for the match are too short. I only play in the 3-0 market, to lay it, or to back it. It's as simple as the match odds market, and the odds are very worth it even in short matches. Like SoA, I don't like to bet on any match without knowing the way the players have been playing and are likely to play (except for on this match because I was being dumb).
Report Java June 2, 2013 11:46 AM BST
Gutless.
Report shiraz June 2, 2013 11:48 AM BST
Anderson already matched at 1000/1 half way through the third set.
Report loadedgimp June 2, 2013 11:58 AM BST
I got 1.01 on Ferrer set 3 Sad had a late night but a few quid will have to do
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