Tennis
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02 Jun 13
08:48
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Date Joined:
18 May 03
What's your best bet here? Is Ferrer going to win again? His record against Anderson is 1-1, but this is on his surface.
My choice of bet would be the total games. As Ferrer plays fewer tiebreaks than most players I think that this is going to be unders, which at odds above evens is good considering the Ferrer 3-0 is at evens and the Anderson +6.5 games is at 1.9s.
My choice of bet would be the total games. As Ferrer plays fewer tiebreaks than most players I think that this is going to be unders, which at odds above evens is good considering the Ferrer 3-0 is at evens and the Anderson +6.5 games is at 1.9s.
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I went Ferrer 3-0 because I'm dumb. Hopefully I don't get burned here
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Why is that dumb? It is quite probable that it will be 3-0.
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Players at 1.19 or less have a 15-7 record of winning this round 3-0 since 2005.
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so at evens that makes sense.
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i reckon Ferrer -6.5 is better if you can get above evens. Can't see Anderson taking a set but if he does it will likely be tight and be the first or second. I think Ferrer will batter him more the longer the match goes on and I can see him winning at least one set by two breaks.
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Ah, nice work with the stats. I feel a bit better now. Basically I made this bet in a rush earlier today because I thought I might be busy around now, and now that I've stopped to think about it, feel like I should have tried for $2.50 to $2.60 for this to be worth it. My idea is that there is a chance Anderson could push 1+ sets to a tiebreaker due to his strong serve and in a tiebreaker, anything can happen.
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yeah that's why i think ferrer -6.5 is better. Anderson could nick a TB here but that wouldn't be fatal on -6.5.
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Srichaphan or Ancic?
02 Jun 13 09:01 Players at 1.19 or less have a 15-7 record of winning this round 3-0 since 2005. so at evens that makes sense. Nicol, this is not Nice work with stats, it's twisting stats in order to make them back up your Choice of bet. I know it wasn't you who came up With it though. |
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I'm sure he can decide for himself.
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What would you prefer, the stats for players who are at 1.1s? That is 4-1, which is even more suggestive of 3-0 than what I posted before.
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That's exactly my point as your first use of stats put the same weight on a 1.1 shot as a 1.19 shot and it's far more likely for the 1.1 to end 3-0 than the latter is.
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Ferrer 3-0 is a value bet at anything over even money purely based on the H2H price, but that's using stats with thousands of examples, not just a few in one tournament. Obviously none of this means that the bet will win, as always it's all about the odds.
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To make the use of stats a bit more correct you would have to use some kind of weighed average.
As Ferrer is 1.16 you could look at all matches With the favourite 1.14 - 1.19 or 1.12 - 1.22 or 1.1 - 1.25 depending on how many matches you want to base this on. |
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1.1s is the whole range, from 1.1 to 1.19. Ferrer is at 1.14 with the bookies, so you would think that that suggests it is an ideal stat.
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I think this is one of the more exciting players to watch v one of the dullest
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No S or A, Eddie the Eagle is correct. I know we have had this discussion before, but that range is way too wide to use when only basing decisions on stats and generalisations. Also just doing ststs on this tournament is too small a sample size.
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In your view, but not in mine.
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S or A, you can argue as long as you want, but your first use of stats will never be correct.
You can't look at all matches where the favourite started 1.19 or less to compile odds for a 1.16 favourite. |
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Where are you even getting odds data from? I want in on this.
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good start for Ferrer
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all on my tennis database
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Nice, I only track player stats on mine. I haven't figured out where to data mine historical odds data from yet.
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I could tell you nice stats like, for example, in this round of the French Open since 2005, just one out of seventeen French players have won 3-0.
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I just put all the data into a database, then filter it for the 4th round of the French Open and use a s/sheet to analyse it.
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A double break here would be nice for my total games bet.
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I keep mine written on post-it notes which are haphazardly stuck around my house.
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im anxious as to how this ends up...seeing as Ferrer was a set up (and almost i think a break up at 15-40) the last time they played and he basically threw it away
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Yeah, I don't know what I was worrying about earlier. Anderson looks more UE than man today.
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he knows he has to be aggressive to get anything here and with that comes the danger of committing more UE
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Anderson needs his serve to have an effect and a) this is on clay so it is lessened and b) it is against Ferrer, one of the best returners. Without that serve, he loses a large amount of points when it goes to long rallies.
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brave 1.05 £229,784
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In saying that SoA, does this make this match similar to Haas vs Isner
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I think you have to add into the equation too that Ferrer has a good chance of getting to the latter stages here this year, and will want to win quickly to ensure he is not fatigued.
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Well, Haas is not in Ferrer's league in terms of returning serve.
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Haas vs Ferrer from a couple of weeks ago is one of my favourite matches of the year.
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ferrer looks like lord farquaad from shrek - http://static.comicvine.com/uploads/original/2/25521/637957-shrek06_lordfarquaad.jpg
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http://static.comicvine.com/uploads/original/2/25521/637957-shrek06_lordfarquaad.jpg
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