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NicolNicol
23 May 13 10:04
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Date Joined: 24 Dec 11
| Topic/replies: 593 | Blogger: NicolNicol's blog
I'm going to tell you my picks for Dussledorf, and you should tell me yours.

Match 1 - Juan Monaco vs Tobias Kamke

Clay record
Monaco: 14 wins, 8 losses.
Kamke:   4 wins, 6 losses.

Last 25 matches:
Monaco: Winning .50 of serves, winning .56 of returns.
Kamke: Winning .48 of serves. winning .33 of returns.

Head to head:
Monaco: 3 wins (2 of which were on clay during the last 12 months)
Kamke: 0 wins
They've never gone to 3 sets

This is pretty clear-cut because Kamke is just not of the same class. Monaco was 1.33, when I got him, implying .75 winning chances. I put him in the .85->.9 range, here. Even the motivation, I feel, is there for Monaco. Although he is a noted clay-court player, and the French will be his best slam, he should feel that he has a better chance here, with the barely talented field now that Tipsarevic and Kohlschreiber have pulled out. I wouldn't buy him for any less than 1.20 though.

How do you guys feel about this match?

I will make my next pick before Pella-Troicki starts.

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Replies: 124
By:
prele_
When: 23 May 13 10:06
I agree with you, Monaco the favourite here, Kamke should not stand a chance.
By:
jin_kazz
When: 23 May 13 10:07
i feel that i wanna lay monaco
By:
prele_
When: 23 May 13 10:10
yeah, im not betting on it yet
By:
prele_
When: 23 May 13 10:16
Go Kamke!
By:
prele_
When: 23 May 13 10:20
come on, 15-40!
By:
NicolNicol
When: 23 May 13 10:20
The second serves hurt Monaco yesterday, although he was able to come through. Hopefully that DF right now isn't cause for concern.
By:
prele_
When: 23 May 13 10:21
damn, wasted chance
By:
jin_kazz
When: 23 May 13 10:26
1. nadal
2. ferrer
3. almagro
4. robredo
5. monaco
6. federer
7. davydenko

by wins on clay in career
By:
jin_kazz
When: 23 May 13 10:29
looks like monaco is not tanking today :)
By:
NicolNicol
When: 23 May 13 10:30

May 23, 2013 -- 5:26AM, jin_kazz wrote:


1. nadal2. ferrer3. almagro4. robredo5. monaco6. federer7. davydenkoby wins on clay in career


By number of wins, or win percentage?

By:
jin_kazz
When: 23 May 13 10:34
by number
By:
jin_kazz
When: 23 May 13 10:46
kamke is trying hard but have no chances today
By:
NicolNicol
When: 23 May 13 10:48
I like that as a stat but it has potential to be a misleading performance indicator. I wonder if Robredo and Davydenko are enjoying their spots in there due to their extra few years in the league.
By:
jin_kazz
When: 23 May 13 10:51
and fed also
By:
NicolNicol
When: 23 May 13 10:54
Monaco having his worst game of the match so far.
By:
prele_
When: 23 May 13 10:56
Kamke re
By:
prele_
When: 23 May 13 10:56
but he will be broken back soon
By:
jin_kazz
When: 23 May 13 11:00
good price on pella
By:
jin_kazz
When: 23 May 13 11:15
did kamke killed anyone with this ball abuse?
By:
jin_kazz
When: 23 May 13 11:15
i heard screams: 'man down, man down! call ambulance!'
By:
prele_
When: 23 May 13 11:22
kamke break
By:
NicolNicol
When: 23 May 13 11:25
Pella vs Troicki

This one is going to be a poor, unpredictable match.

Last 10 matches:
Pella: Winning .60 of serves, Winning .24 of returns.
Troicki: Winning .60 of serves, winning .31 of returns.

2013 Clay record:
4 wins, 7 losses  (Average opponent rank: 127)
7 wins, 5 losses. (Average opponent rank: 50)

Ok, so I'm in two minds about this one. Firstly, the big gap in their rankings and the rankings of their average opponents makes me feel like leaning towards Troicki. 1.55 gives him a .66 chance of winning, and maybe he's a .7. Maybe not. Very unclear. On the other hand, dear lord, look at those return rates. With those in mind, my other idea is to Back Pella at his current 2.86, and effectively predict a tiebreaker, laying him when he gets to maybe 2.30.

I'll go with the former! Backing Troicki at 1.53!
By:
NicolNicol
When: 23 May 13 11:27
What do you guys think about this match?
By:
prele_
When: 23 May 13 11:29
Troicki is a mug, but so is Pella. My money is on Troicki
By:
prele_
When: 23 May 13 11:29
probably 3 sets
By:
jin_kazz
When: 23 May 13 11:35
pella for me
By:
prele_
When: 23 May 13 11:37
im waiting the first 4 games
By:
prele_
When: 23 May 13 11:37
then i decide
By:
NicolNicol
When: 23 May 13 11:37
Please tell me I don't have to sit through the doubles to get to this game.
By:
jin_kazz
When: 23 May 13 11:38
you don't have to sit through the doubles to get to this game.
By:
prele_
When: 23 May 13 11:42
:D
By:
NicolNicol
When: 23 May 13 11:44
http://www.atpworldtour.com/scores/schedule.aspx?year=2013&eventid=6710

As a viewer, I'd really like for the singles to all be on center court 1 and the doubles to all be on center court two. But I guess it makes sense from their point of view to split the crowds.
By:
NicolNicol
When: 23 May 13 11:48
Really torn about whether to enjoy the Troicki game or do research for Hajek-Sijling. About forty minutes until the coin toss over there.
By:
NicolNicol
When: 23 May 13 11:54
Serve points won after 3 games:
Pella - .22
Troicki - .20
By:
prele_
When: 23 May 13 12:04
crazy point by Pellafella
By:
prele_
When: 23 May 13 12:10
what do you think of querrey vs vaseline?
By:
NicolNicol
When: 23 May 13 12:19
I'm not too sure about that one. My gut tells me Querrey might have a rough time. His record on clay recently has been poor right? But that is without looking at any stats or watching the match, so I'm not to be trusted.
By:
NicolNicol
When: 23 May 13 12:20
Back here, not looking auspicious for Troicki. Too many UEs, too many second serves. It's like he hasn't even turned up today. The only way I'm winning this bet is if a) he lifts his form b) I get very very lucky
By:
prele_
When: 23 May 13 12:20
he just gave away 3bps at 0-40
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