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Tricktickler
07 Feb 13 20:25
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Date Joined: 24 Jun 12
| Topic/replies: 1,272 | Blogger: Tricktickler's blog
2 days ago Bogomolov was the only pick which didnt go in. Yesterday Monaco. AND NOW?

Stakhovsky @1.42
Gasquet @1.60
Rhyne Williams @1.62
Andreas Beck @1.36
Dustov @1.50
Ramos @1.40
Rosol @1.30
and.....
ROBREDO @1.62

total odds @22.14



WHY?! IT WAS MY LIFE BET. IM ADDICTED FROM BETTING, TOOK SO MUCH CASH FROM MY MOM ALREADY. I COULD BE ON 0 AND WOULD HAVE STOPPED BETTING. WHY IS LIFE SO CRUEL FOR ME? WHY AM I SO UNLUCKY?

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Replies: 41
By:
;[p
When: 07 Feb 13 20:29
wow some constellation of mugs you gathered there
By:
caramba
When: 07 Feb 13 20:31
they are called mugtiples for a reason
By:
Tricktickler
When: 07 Feb 13 20:32
**** my life. its just so incredible. every single time i bet anything - the last pick ruins it all. I JUST CANNOT FUKING BELIEVE IT. could be rich, now i got nothing + lot of arrear
By:
;[p
When: 07 Feb 13 20:36
chillax and stop betting this is not the way you earn money in life, too much stress
By:
jin_kazz
When: 07 Feb 13 20:55
that's the reson why i stopped making multiples

everytime one mug ruins everything

multiples sux tbh.

it's good for some ppl (1 out of 10 000 000) to win $500 000 from something like $1 bet but most of the time you just losing your money

work it out and stop gambling if things don't go your way.

tennis is good for trading. but it's very hard to predict who wins the match. especially in minor tourneys like we have now
By:
nofx
When: 07 Feb 13 20:56
here this always used to cheer me up  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpmA22WH8o0
and just don't play the accumuglators Happy
By:
smb360
When: 07 Feb 13 22:42

Feb 7, 2013 -- 2:31PM, caramba wrote:


they are called mugtiples for a reason


I wonder, what is a mug's favourite tipple?

By:
morrillo
When: 07 Feb 13 22:50
well betting is all about. probability of a result being true or false that is created based on two peoples opinions. A bookmaking firm hire third level mathematical professionals to take everyone's money at the price that they suggest, they manage these volumes to achieve a profit, now when you give money on a bet without much thought that has less than 5% probability of those series of results becoming true. i'm not trying to sound harsh your best not to rely on accumulators to make you rich, i've done four accumulators on betfair since i started a year ago spent 20 euro and made 85, prior to that i yous't do the 50 cent accumulator strategy. this is done by picking 8 to ten teams and making 20 bets using a tenner, 8 has more chance obviously, three home wins, three away wins and two draws. mix and match the same 8 teams to form a pattern, e.g man utd win in won multi, man utd lose in the second and draw in the third an so on. it used take me a long night to do this strategy, on my second go i won 125 euro which is a 250/1 bet and on my 6th week i won 300 euro which is 600/1 shot. either you have a good multiple system that works or you might aswell give a bookie a monthly direct debit
By:
;[p
When: 07 Feb 13 23:13
well you dont need to be mathematician to calculate that its stupid to bet on multiplies, just because the odds are lower, than in single bets .and there is no difference in the income as the probability of single bet is just multiplied in muliti bet so on longer run it just the same as doing single bets, so you basically taking lower odds  all the time having false belief you can make more money connecting few bets together with lesser input but its totally opposite
By:
;[p
When: 07 Feb 13 23:14
"e.g man utd win in won multi, man utd lose in the second and draw in the third an so on"
By:
;[p
When: 07 Feb 13 23:16
its the dumbest strategy i ever heard, if you just leave this man utd match and do only one multi tripling the money on it you will end up with more money and probablility will still be the same, psml
By:
hollywood85
When: 08 Feb 13 00:41
Stop betting on multiples, that's bookies biggest moneymaker... and I dont know no one who actually makes a living from it
By:
hollywood85
When: 08 Feb 13 00:42
I also find it hilarious that you're seething about a 22.14 shot... that's 4,5% chance, you really that surprised it didnt landed ConfusedDevil
By:
morrillo
When: 08 Feb 13 03:19

Feb 7, 2013 -- 5:16PM, ;[p wrote:


its the dumbest strategy i ever heard, if you just leave this man utd match and do only one multi tripling the money on it you will end up with more money and probablility will still be the same, psml


no knobhead, you are covering your arse from an upset by using the same 8 teams that day or weekend and choosing different combinations, out of the 20 bets one strikes you get your multiple return, it actually works but its the most time consuming thing to do

By:
sosa jr
When: 08 Feb 13 10:39
why would it take a lot of time??
wouldnt you just have 20 templates
rank the teams from top to bottom in whatever order takes your fantasy and make each option either (a) (b) or (c)
and slot ''say the number 3 team option (a) into the same spot in each template every time you took the series of multiples??

Im actually gonna make some templates and give it a go for 5 selections using the 3 options and see what can jag for fun. sounds like fun anyway and Id love to get a 600/1 winner
By:
;[p
When: 08 Feb 13 11:37
look mug, im a patient man so will explain it to you on simplest example

you have selection A @2

and multiply it with your man utd example which is 1 X 2 all @ 2.9 ( as rhe bookies skimming you,should be at3 bto break evens in ur multi

u got 3 multis
A1 @2.9x2= 5.8
AX @2.9x2=5.8
A2 @2.9x2=5.8

obviously only one can win so if you ivest 10 pounds in each multi your return will be 58
with investment of 30£

now if you bet this 30 only on selection A which have to win

you got 30x2 =60

60>58 you mug  Excited


now it doesnt matter whats the odds are it always will be the same and if you think you can got something because you are making more perturbations you are simply wrong.you can describe rest of selections in every multi simply as an bet A in my example.


if im a knobhead ,who are you?

go to school
By:
sosa jr
When: 08 Feb 13 13:27
only time you would ever consider putting  multi on with a fair to large stake is if the legs are on at the same time. Otherwise as mentioned earlier in thread you'd be better just reloading all your winnings into next bet as you go. At least if get  few legs up  can hedge on the next legs or take winnings and  bail out altogether. or restart the initial bet etc etc
By:
;[p
When: 08 Feb 13 13:30
its not about reloading. its about odds, even if events are at same time is better to bet them in singles as in multi u just multiplying the probability as well so in long enough run it comes as the same,only multi odds are worse
By:
nofx
When: 08 Feb 13 13:34
think certain someone should ask themselves Why not? instead
By:
;[p
When: 08 Feb 13 13:36
if u have  2 bets for example at evens probability to win them both is 4which is exactly the same as probability to win this bet multiplied in four chances as you would bet on the same evens in singles. so getting lesser odds you basicly becreasing your winnings or increasing loses
By:
sosa jr
When: 08 Feb 13 13:42
Joined: Date Joined: 03 Nov 07 | Topic/replies: 23,426 | Blogger: ;[p's blog

its not about reloading. its about odds, even if events are at same time is better to bet them in singles as in multi u just multiplying the probability as well so in long enough run it comes as the same,only multi odds are worse


Yr wrong there imo
By:
;[p
When: 08 Feb 13 13:53
what?

jeez people.

you need to have four multies with two doubles at evens= odds of multi at 4

you investing 10 in each one = to break evens to get 40

you have one bet at evens at 10....



this is frickin basic maths





look there is no difference between makin multies or single bets if the odds are the same.basic maths

even if you consider you have some edge in bett the edge will be the same in multis( in any of matches taking part of multi)



if u dont get it take my word on that.i got technical college education ,but tbh it is basic primary school level of maths
By:
schillaci
When: 08 Feb 13 14:05
was just looking at kiri v krum tomorrow and kiri suddenly went from 1.09 to 1.24 so i got on her quickly and got 92 matched on her then she went back to 1.09
By:
schillaci
When: 08 Feb 13 14:11
she suddenly drifted to 1.22 again i got another 43 matched on her, back to 1.09 now tho
By:
bb66
When: 08 Feb 13 17:05
Laugh@ 1.1 backer
By:
morrillo
When: 08 Feb 13 17:27

Feb 8, 2013 -- 4:39AM, sosa jr wrote:


why would it take a lot of time?? wouldnt you just have 20 templatesrank the teams from top to bottom in whatever order takes your fantasy and make each option either (a) (b) or (c)and slot ''say the number 3 team option (a) into the same spot in each template every time you took the series of multiples??Im actually gonna make some templates and give it a go for 5 selections using the 3 options and see what can jag for fun. sounds like fun anyway and Id love to get a 600/1 winner


can you make me a template for me too? i'd like to do it again but i did it all manually, and it took time

By:
morrillo
When: 08 Feb 13 17:31

Feb 8, 2013 -- 5:37AM, ;[p wrote:


look mug, im a patient man so will explain it to you on simplest exampleyou have selection A @2 and multiply it with your man utd example which is 1 X 2 all @ 2.9 ( as rhe bookies skimming you,should be at3 bto break evens in ur multiu got 3 multisA1 @2.9x2= 5.8AX @2.9x2=5.8A2 @2.9x2=5.8obviously only one can win so if you ivest 10 pounds in each multi your return will be 58with investment of 30£now if you bet this 30 only on selection A which have to winyou got 30x2 =6060>58 you mug  now it doesnt matter whats the odds are it always will be the same and if you think you can got something because you are making more perturbations you are simply wrong.you can describe rest of selections in every multi simply as an bet A in my example.if im a knobhead ,who are you?go to school


each bet costs 50 pence and the odds are well over a hundred on all multi's you are using the same 8 selections and rearranging them so if an upset occurs the other bets will have the different result, all you need is 1 bet out of 20 to win more than 5 times your stake,

By:
morrillo
When: 08 Feb 13 17:46
to be honest trying it with the horses would be pretty goodhttp://asianfanatics.net/forum/topic/507293-uk-man-bets-50-pence-on-horses-and-wins-1-million/
By:
nofx
When: 08 Feb 13 17:53
yes someone wins the lottery somewhere every month too. you can find strategies about it on asianfantastics.com
By:
morrillo
When: 08 Feb 13 18:17
if you have a system that is profitable do it, don't go off the beating track and waste money,  a good system always works
By:
;[p
When: 08 Feb 13 18:21
Excited unfortunately morrillo u are wrong again. even taking off commission of any odds,this 5% , the odds will still be way better than  multi odds and multiplying it wont change the fact that  u will lose on odds difference
By:
schillaci
When: 09 Feb 13 13:06
ive just turned 362 into 2564....heres the proof...http://postimage.org/gallery/1tmvob7w/f6cde955/...im gonna continue to kick the **** outta this place cuz i enjoy it....
By:
jjjjj
When: 09 Feb 13 13:24
james hamilton, you are a f*cking genius! do you sell your picks?
By:
tenniso
When: 09 Feb 13 14:13
I admire the balls of people who put bank on each bet and grow the bank seemingly out of nowhere. But one bet will take you to the cleaners. It will happen, just a matter of when so you better start withdrawing some profits imho..
By:
schillaci
When: 09 Feb 13 14:19

Feb 9, 2013 -- 7:24AM, jjjjj wrote:


james hamilton, you are a f*cking genius! do you sell your picks?


its james halton and no i dont, at least not right now!! but thanks for the compliment

By:
schillaci
When: 09 Feb 13 14:20

Feb 9, 2013 -- 8:13AM, tenniso wrote:


I admire the balls of people who put bank on each bet and grow the bank seemingly out of nowhere. But one bet will take you to the cleaners. It will happen, just a matter of when so you better start withdrawing some profits imho..


thats not going to happen to me becuz i wont be going all in anymore - ive reached that point where i dont need to go all in anymore

By:
nixie
When: 09 Feb 13 19:41
betfair giveth betfair taketh away, its like the cycle of life.
By:
schillaci
When: 09 Feb 13 22:51
uh uh betfair wont taketh anything away from me
By:
schillaci
When: 09 Feb 13 22:54
its onwards and upwards from here with the odd hiccup along the way
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