Outright Thread 2011

ffs

3 croatians, 3 serbians, a czech, a latvian and 7 other europeans

cilic, dodig, tipsarevic, troicki, karlovic

8 ball bashers

not sure i want to watch tennis any more, what an abysmal last 16 line up

Troicki last night made monfils look like the most attacking player in the game

what awful tennis it was

it was a shocker...expect it from monfils but troicki was rubbish..deserved to lose for being so negative.

thought gas would of taken almagro down...tsonga win wasnt a surprise...he should beat almagro in the next round...stan at 6/4 v fish looks tempting

just lost a little on berdsh1t so maybe this contributes to this post a bit

but does anyone else think mens tennis is becoming worse and worse (not in terms of standard at the top) but the game styles like berdych, troicki, tipsarevic, even djokovic, cilic etc...seems to becoming more and more commonplace...not being rascist here but who wants to see 8 of the last 16 being eastern europeans , they are generally boring in terms of style and personality

trying to remember the good matches ive seen this year , djoko vs fed french, fed vs tsonga wimbledon....the 1/2s of slams are always 3 of the top 4, or all 4 - find that boring, especially when its nadal vs murray, djoko vs fed everytime as well ...some of the players just outside the top 10 are the worst we've seen, troicki, melzer etc

dont know if it's just me or whether this is the opinion of others but i think the interest is going downhill, and fast....compare it to 2000-2003 when tennis was actually interesting (the top 10 was incredibly even, partly because of sampras past his best, before feds dominance, but also because we had hewitt, safin, ferrero, agassi, henman, coria, roddick - i mean check out the contrasts in styles/personalities there )

maybe the fact they slowed the balls/surfaces at the start of the millenium took a few years to have an effect (increased the pace of balls/courts on clay)

who wants to see each surface the same and no matter what the surface the same players getting to the latter stages?

in 2003 we had players who had speciality surfaces - gaudio, coria etc...henman etc....now if you are a grass or a clay court specialist it basically means you're sh1t, to put it bluntly - berlocq and mahut for e.g

im losing interest in tennis and quickly...i genuinely think it's losing its appeal...maybe it'll take federer to retire before others really start to see it as well

Nastase, Lendl, Kafelnikov, ... damn these boring eastern european #1s with no style or personality.  Djokovic following in their footsteps, right?

Fortunately, Scotsmen like Murray are here to bring us some joy and smiles

Troicki in the top 20 is enough to put anyone off tennis.

Which was worse simpson....monf v troicki or fish v stan

Skip 2011 imo...If novak djokovic leaves NYC without the us open title i will quit the forum [;)]  (injury = no bet)

didnt see fish vs stan so monf vs troicki

fish is a very dull player to watch

didnt see fish vs stan so monf vs troicki

if you saw Fish vs Stan you would have definitely said that match

HORRIFIC tennis and that's putting it kindly,. 2nd set the worst I've ever seen

aaronh, where is voluciano?

a bit of kudos to the guy at the Sporting Life...after a couple of near misses,he had 2 selections this week,Djokovic @2/1 and Mardy Fish @80/1 each-way.

Relieved to see people finally seeing the wood for the trees and realising this era is a bit of a joke, jsimp you are my hero.

Stuck to my long-term plan this week and gone with Del Potro, av. just over 32 ... don't think it does him much harm facing Federer early, surface change and all that **** ... Think it will be much tougher for Djokovic to win this week, tempting lay from QFs onward.

only me and you jb apparently...although you saw it earlier

dont think its the players fault though, itf's fault

Everyone still alive?

Kisses.

Come on then, time to dust off some of you relics, it's US Open time!

At first glance (for that's all it is)

Djok 2.6 LAY
Nadal 6 BACK
Murray 7 LAY
Federer 7.4 NO BET

And just because I do so at every slam:

Ferrer 330 BACK (TO LAY)

Anyone around to articulate their thoughts on it all?

If you want some more insight

It's not a smart move to LAY Murray at 6/1 or LAY the Djoker at 2.6, Murray is a decent Hard court player who will be coming off the back of a Masters victory, bodes well for his confidence and momentum going into the US Open next week, and Laying the Djoker is suicidal betting, Back Federer, Murray, Nadal and small bets on Soderling, Berdych, Tsonga and Del Potro, everyone else only ha s cat-in-hells-chance. Djoker is too short for me, will away the latter rounds until he comes into play for me.

Surely by backing 3 of the big 4 and the only other contenders, you're just laying Djokovic anyway in effect? The 7 you mention take up 55% of the book, Djokovic 38% on his own.

Djokovic has to be too short at 2.58 given what we saw in Cincinnati. I know people have been predicting him to run out of steam all season, but the warning signs are there now and I'm surprised he hasn't drifted further.

Murray has got to the stage where he is an automatic lay at these kind of prices for a Grand Slam, especially here where he seems to struggle. Problem is, with question marks over the over Big 3 he could end up winning by default, a bit like in Cinci.

It's traditionally a strategy for chucking money down the drain but I'm tempted by the Field (not Big 4) at 5/1. Rarely have I had less confidence in the big guns going into a Grand Slam. Picking a winner outside them still looks hard, hence the crapshoot back at 5s.

Staking plan + when/how/if, comes into play.

I'll answer you points more thoroughly in a while, I must pop out.

djokovic - federer

murray - nadal



not that it is guaranteed to happen but even so.............

Back Federer, Murray, Nadal and small bets on Soderling, Berdych, Tsonga and Del Potro,

RIght, so pretty much laying Djok, then?

Laying the Djoker is suicidal betting,

Oh

McChick Beginners Luck has just said that pretty much.  .

who was the last person to win a slam with odds over 100?

murray may as well start in the quarters barring another terrible loss to a wawrinka type...surely not again

all the simplistic muppets will be stating once again what a comfortable draw nadal has but the reality is the first 3/4 rounds are irrelevant anyway, hed have preferred fed/berdych to murray/del potro...

im not convinced about nadal or murray...didnt think murray was much good in cincy really but it'll have given him some confidence anyway...

shame del potros form is iffy (obviously accounts for the price), but if he came in with some solid form id fancy him to make the final...not too bad a matchup for him against murray on these courts, and if he got through his quarter everyone would surely expect a 2009 semi final repeat of demolishing nadal in the semi

tough draw though when in a section with isner/simon/soderling - but then again isner pushing himself too far this week and cant go best of 5 for too long into a tournament, soderling will surely be very rusty....simon a tricky match

i have a strange feeling for roddick this fortnight..not too bad a draw in the respect he avoids fed in particular, nadal has to be his chosen big 4 opponent in any potential semi final - cant be too dissapointed with ferrer as the 5-8th seed in his mini section either, rather that than fish

for the first time this year a few doubts over the big 4 (in my mind anyway) - not too many challengers though, fish cant be thrilled with his draw

Yes simpson and nadal may as well start in the semi final....nadal v murray semi on the cards yet again...what a surprise

Fed to win it.

Back Federer, Murray, Nadal and small bets on Soderling, Berdych, Tsonga and Del Potro,

RIght, so pretty much laying Djok, then?

Laying the Djoker is suicidal betting,

Oh Plain


Thanks for not posting my next comment.

Staking plan + when/how/if, comes into play.

I must remind my self we're betting against each other, so I'm not that bothered what others think about what I am/am not doing right

All that matter is that, by the quarters swing round, I'm very likely to be greener than the apple I'm about to eat.

My one outright bet in the Womens: Lisicki 38s

In awesome form at the moment, one way to describe her is the German version of Serena. IMHO Fresher, doesn't have the commitments going into the slam everyone will want a piece of Serena. Going under the radar... Until she dismantles Venus in a night match 2nd round

Why take the old Serena when you can take the new one [;)]

Williams beat Lisicki 6-1, 6-2 in Stanford, she's in pretty good form as you say though since the French, Cincy aside, a definite dark horse based on form but the likes of Shara, Serena and Zvonereva who's beat Lisicki twice this year will be too much for here if/when they cross paths.

jsimpson you discount Isner because he has pushed himself too far this week but go on to say you like Roddick, who is playing Isner right now!?...

sorry my comments re. roddick were ridiculous

i forgot how terrible he was ...i dont understand why at this stage of his career he doesnt unleash, what the **** is he still doing hacking away , his forehand is a joke

has been outplayed from the baseline by long john

isner has played a lot of tennis post wimbledon...hes never shown himself to last in a slam before, not sure why he will this time...conditioning always been a problem with him, never has been with roddick

Rod has looked shot for a while.

Christ there is some mince come through the qualies.  More Irish than Brits in the mens tourney!

Haven't watched much tennis the last week or so and only briefly had a look through the draw yesterday but these are my thoughts:

Djokovic the man to beat, all logical reasoning suggests this. Some will say he looked gone in the Cinci final but that's nothing an 8-9 day rest won't cure, plus he has two easy starters in R1/R2 to ease himself in.

Of those who can beat Djokovic in NYC, i'd still only narrow it down to Federer and Murray.

I think Federer should be second favourite, yes I know he's in Djokovic's half but whoever comes through that semi should be favourite for the final against anyone from the bottom half.

Nadal will make the semis but again get dumped on his famoos ass by someone who can hold a racket correctly.

Outside the top 4, I think Monfils and Fish are the dangermen but both unlucky to get the draws they did. Discounting Tsonga, don't think his body will ever hold up for 7 BO5s in 12 days.

So for me, I think if Murray can safely negotiate his first 5 matches he'll book his ticket in the final, then again his problem in this tournament the last two years has been fighting past the 10-20 ranked bracket so he's going to have to have learnt from past mistakes. If Murray does make the final, I think he'd more than likely be second favourite, by quite a margin if it's Djokovic.

This could even come down to something as simple as who gets to play first on 'Super Saturday' and gets that rest for the final.

I have two main outright bets for this NYC:

Serena Williams

Simply can not see any player beat her in New York. She needs to play 90% or more and she should win. Her form - the low level of  the current wta tour and her motivation on home soil are my main arguments.

Andy Murray

Looking at the big 4 I see Federer who does not seem hungry any longer. He could crash out early or maybe just play like the French Open and make the semifinal but it is not a scary as Andy is on the opposite of the draw. Djokovic is of course the man to beat but also the player Andy would not face before an eventual final. Nadal peaks between Indian Wells and Wimbledon. Last year was an exception. I do not think he is up for it again. To me Murray is the safest bet looking at the big 4. I also got a feeling Djoko might find himself mentally and physically fatigued after the extreme season he has  had.
Murray also has a decent draw and I think US Open is his biggest chance to win a Slam. This year looks like his biggest oppertunity in his career.

At least now I know why murrayfield choose to take a disliking to me, reading below, I commented on his selection for the WTA at the US Open which maybe appears to show I made him look a bit silly - that wasn't the intention mate, it was just me giving my 2 pence worth.

Who is the best bet..serena or novak? double perhaps

Novak was never a favorite to win a GS. Few months ago, almost every 'expert' on tv was saying Wimbledon = Nadal because he's a multi champion ffs and we all know who is the toughest. But suddenly this time McEnroe, Borg and Wilander choose Novak.

It remains to be seen how Nole will handle this (new) type of pressure.

Fair point, and he was many people's favourite for the French this year (and did go favourite in-running for a short while) and lost. I wonder how Federer will react to being so written off.

Not made my bet yet for what it's worth, still not sure what I actually think's gona happen haha

I have gone big on Serena I am hoping fatty can play like she did last time she played Azarenka and make it into round 4 hopefully she will be odds on then for a lay

its not as straight forward as people think this us open....its a head scratcher [smiley:crazy]

Did you see how the sports personality market reacted to rory and then DC, how do you think it will react to andy winning the us open? 16s at mo...i know he aint the most popular with the public but a slam win...the 1st in so many years for a british tennis player....could be a very short price.

Never ever underestimate the Scottish vote ...

Muzza looks to have as good a chance of winning this as ever, but the price isn't that appealing.  Djokovic justified favourite.  Nadal should be longer than 5.7.  Fed would be my bet at the prices, I think.  Can't see anyone breaking the top 4 stranglehold on the semi spots.

Yes JB i remember michelle mcmanus and leon winning x factor on the back of the powerful scottish vote...both big outsiders......Rory and DC will divide votes with DC having a larger support imo as he is more of a  fans fav than rory..that leaves andy murray a clear fav imo if he wins in NYC...agree with rob that his price now is not appealing...anyone get any 10s? we should of all known he would pick off a title pre us open which results in his price being slashed so much .  Last year was the same with nadal rob...nick kept faith when his price drifted pre tournament and he played unreal and served like goran,you cant price him any bigger than 5.7 looking at his draw...Murray at 16s has to be the bet

Has to b muzza he's now at his peak and will be world number one soon for the next couple years only Pothead if he avoids injuries can stop muzza world domination

He will never have world domination of tennis, NEVER.

OK made my decision, gone with Federer @ 7/1 as my main bet ... he's fresh, he's won this thing 5 times, he knows how to beat the main man Djokovic when he has to but more importantly is such a big price, I have him 2nd favo myself and should he make the final I think he should be favourite, even against Nadull, think this is one of the few places he should not lose to him.

A bigger price with a view to a trade is James Blake @ 1000 ... easy R1, then possibly Ferret in R2 who he has 2-0 HTH against, Mayer beatable in R3 and then either Almagro or Roddick, would be surprised if he's still not 3 figures at this point and we'll see, always like to make a 1000 bet in slams and thought this looked a decent one.

GL.

Blimey james blake was 22 when he had one of them wins v ferrer...gl but dont see him beating ferrer

Was actually gona go with Ferrer till I saw his price, as someone mentioned earlier he's usually a very sound back to lay in slams especially with his draw but I wanted bigger.

Can't believe I'm not seeing Delpo being mentioned here, great value at least for a trade.

My outside bet would be Soerling - I don't consider Delpo an outside bet, when fully fit like now - he's not far off the top 4.

HARRY22

Murray at 16s has to be the bet

I presume this is a "I backed Murray at 16s ages ago" gloat?

ages ago....ermmm try 2 days ago silly boy..keep up

Murray was 15/1 to win the US Open 2 days ago?  I should concentrate more.

think harry is referring to SPOTY rob

HARRY no way was Murray 162 days back or ever this year I've been spanking him since Wimbledon and the best price in the last 2 weeks was 7.8

simpson...im glad you are on the ball and awake...cheers....go back to bed robert...if you apologise i will put it down to you not following the thread correctly...if you took yer nose out of RMBs arse for a few minutes you may of kept up with things....he is allowed to gloat though yes   zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz goodnite robert,come back when you have caught up on some kip and wash the chocolate coloured smear from yer nose [:p][:p][:p]

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz  ffs another one....you and robert should share a bed

Think I'll join the others in departing this thread for good and leave you to sing your own praises.  All the best, Harry.

No apology then? The others? You mean JUST nick

I dont recall me gloating...mentioned 16/1 on murray being a very short fav for spoty if he wins here...thats singing my own praises is it?   Thought you were bright, my mistake.

Skim read and not found 1 mention of Wozniacki [:o] Current world number 1, semi finalist and runner up in last 2 years. I know her form isn't great but did have a confidence boosting tournement win last week. @ 14.0 I'll take her to break her grand slam duck

There is also no mentioning of someone who can be a real dark horse. I mean everyone agree that at least one of top4 will not make to semis but who? Potential Tsonga/Fish upset of Fed is hardly a surprise anymore, Djoko will survive imo, Murray and Nadal can lose to someone, but who ???

It has to be someone fresh, a player not in top 10-20 but also no Dodig like, someone who on a good day can beat them all. With a quick look to the draw one name came to surface, I backed him today also, will continue to back until he beats Nadal and then is everything possible...


Gilles Muller to win US Open !



















































































Just kidding

Now after you had a good laugh comes the real one (most will laugh on this too but time will tell):

Ernests Gulbis to win US Open (or at least to upset Nadal) !

I missed 350 today but 150 is still available [;)]

Thought Gulbis was superb today, even better than the level he played in LA ... would be pretty amazing if he goes on a run here after 2 years without a slam victory haha, but i'd love to see it.

now the 14s muz have also gone with VC for SPOTY, thats SPOTY 14s just to make it clear for cloth ears, 12s now glad the public have followed me in

@Bokicar, had same thoughts and got Gulbis at 400 on monday already into 100

on monday...damn it..why didnt you tell us all monday so we could all get a piece of the pie...you sound like the aftertiming dlarssonf.

Womens decided in week 1.

Aza or Big Momma are winning this. More than probable it will be Big Momma.

Can't go past Muz finally popping his GS cherry in the men's.

I'm on Muz at 10.5 average odds and that'll do me, had a bit on Delpo 16's-25's and already waved goodbye to my Petra and Kim investments.

I've got Serena running into FKN everything !!

Had 1 bet so far, Voskaboeva to beat Frank, won on every stat that matters bar 1.........

Harry, who you on?

Big momma all the way....placed a double on novak and serena also...Backed muz for spoty at 16s so in a way thats my 2 for the mens..had a few small bets on liski and bartoli.very hard to call the mens side.

does muz win spoty if he wins this?  not sure there is enough love for him. Surely some cricketer wins it?
Big Momma should be odds on. She gets past Vika and she's home. I've saved on Vika, price too big.

I can see a Murray/Fed final in the mens

No im not saying he will win it if he wins this but i predict a very short price, no cricketer wins it, rory or darren clarke,between the 2 so far. Only took it as i missed the big prices for muz for the us open

coney, i've sent you a message mate

No way will Murray get the English vote, alot of people still think of Murray as the person who said "he'll be supporting anyone but England at the World Cup" a few years ago and that he'll be "wearing a Paraguayan shirt" obviously it was a joke, but people still dislike him because of it, he'll only win if the Scots come out in their droves to vote for him, and if he wins the US Open they will, if Button somehow manages to win the Forumla 1 World  title, he'd win SPOTY.

only needs the scottish vote and he will win in a canter

It won't be enough if Button wins.

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When: 31 Aug 11 23:00
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coney, i've sent you a message mate

^ fck off d1ckhead !!!

How exactly does that bloke above think Jenson Button is a snowflakes of winning the WDC, is he on smack?

harry, finish this treble

US Open mens - A. Murray
US Open Womemen's - B.Momma
SB Champion.............

i know he only sent you a message to give you his run down on his outright tips lol

Thats a tricky one CONEY....i like to make my play later on in the season like i did with the packers at 33s down to 20s [;)]  change it to world darts champion PHIL TAYLOR...eagles win the superbowl is my pre season tip..biased of course

^ fck off d1ckhead !!!Laugh

How exactly does that bloke above think Jenson Button is a snowflakes of winning the WDC, is he on smack?


Charming.

I'll give you a more succinct explanation as to why I think Murray will not win SPOTY and that Button has an outside chance

Before I do, I will say that I don't expect either of these two to win - Darren Clark and Mcilroy are rightly the two strong favourites - the former will probably win as there is a lot of public affection for him, Clark winning a major in Britain would have also captured alot of people's attention/imagination for the Non-British Golf public as well as the keen Golf fans themselves in comparison to Mcilroy winning in America, albeit spectacular fashion. Add this to the fact that he missed out a couple of years ago when he hadn't even won a major at that point.

Jenson Button is currently 100/1 win SPOTY, what I said was, if he were to win The Formuala 1 World Championships, then he'd also win SPOTY regardless if Muzza won the US Open as the majority of people in Britain would favour Button over him IMO - murray is a misunderstood character for those they don't follow Tennis like I do. People see him as Anti English for reasons I've already explained, not to mention the fact he comes across as quite grumpy.

Button is currently 110 points behind Vettle with 7 races to go, for him to have a realistic chance of winning, he would have to win 4 of those races and finish inside the top 3 for the other 3 races, - given the fact he's won 2 races this year and finished inside the top 3 6 times from 12 (in 2 other races in was knocked out of the race) and has been driving brilliantly - most notable in Canada and Spa - he is more than capable of doing that if he steps up during the latter part of the Forumula 1 season.

Conclusion - obviously it's an outside bet, hence the odds being given, but my original point was, that if it came down to a contest between Murray and Button, Murray would not win.

I'd be very surprised if a Cricketer won it, given we were useless at the World Cup and that Cricket is not really a sport that the general public really becomes in engaged in, it's a marmite sport, personally it bores me rigid and it's gets far less attention than other 'English sports'.

Lastly, remember when Ryan Giggs won SPOTY, must of been around 300/1! basically was given the award for his services to Football, alot of people said he was given the wrong award for two reasons, 1) he has no personality and 2) the lifetime achievement award would have been more appropriate.

Well, lightning can strike twice here - Paul Scholes at 1000/1, £3 available,

Public liking rory as JB pointed out dont underestimate the scottish vote...the 1st british slam winner in all these years is massive.be warned...as i said the irish golfers will be split with DC picking up more votes than rory as he is more liked.

No noise for the legend that is the mosquito as leif shiras would say 'what a set of wheels'

Will murray win SPOTY now

30 Aug 11 22:04
Gilles Muller to win US Open !

why whats happened darren? has murray gone out? little tip wait until the show is over before mocking.... all is said was the 4/1-5/1 prices for the us open were short so thought the 16s spoty was a better bet imo

Didnt massively fancy him to win the us open but it was a saver bet for me.

its incredible that Nole is still odds against in the outrights.  He is more certain to win than the Big Momma. I'd be amzed if anyone can win 3 sets against him.

federer and probably nadal del potro or murray for nole to win...serena will piss home...she is a bigger cert than novak..who can beat her?

Serena injury prone and Lisicki, Wozianaki and Vera still all in.  Nadal is scared of Novak and Federer will be blown away by Novak's power. Del Potro could be dangerous but would be amazed if he could trouble Novak over 5

Injury prone?? not concerned about liscki as ive backed her also..novak is more injury prone if his shoulder flares up

finding it hard to see how novak and serena fail to win

azarenka williams not a night match tomorrow

and a quick word for the british doubles pairings of course

fleming in particular who is a class act

at least we can play that game

A few really good matches last couple of days. today could be even better some interesting matches but probably Cilic, Anderson and Verdasco will throw in shockers...

I will quit the forum if anderson beats fish..berdy to retire?

1.6 tips a set up v the quitter berdych surprise surprise he quit again.

serena-azarenka was brilliant. azarenka would have beaten anyone else with her performance in the second set.

can't see how serena fails to win the women's now.

I can.