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sorry bet365 ramping
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3-2*
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7 attempts, looks like he's all over Kohli's serve, that's positive.
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0-30 bellucci was meant to serve kohl off the court :(
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wta
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4-2 according to b365
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dont trust em though
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break
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30-0
what a complete tool :( |
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Why don't you use the Protennis scoreboard like everyone else?
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Mayer is starting to look a very very good bet, I can see him being a 66/1 shot in a final v Hewitt. Has to get through Benny and Gasquet first but that is doable.
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awesome thread
and no sign of rome bliss |
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Benne involved in a lengthy three-setter as well, so a pretty good day all in all. Beat him pretty easily in Eastbourne so hopefully the same again here.
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Week 2: -£30
Decent effort from Mayer this week. Just a bit peeved that he couldn't build on his second set TB win in the QF and instead got himself bagelled for whatever reason, which was weak, but still a decent effort @ 66s, which I would have traded in the semis given the chance. Chardy beaten by the eventual finalist, not saying that he's the virtual runner-up or anything but maybe if he'd found a way through that match, the draw could have opened up for him, but he was gubbins so that's immaterial. Onto the Aussie - 4 of these I made in November, during the Paris Masters and one I did earlier this week. All prices have changed, both in my favour and against it. I may look for another one during the tournament if I see a player in good form and able to make at least the semis at a decent price. These are the players i've taken pre-tourn (in order of odds) : Roger Federer to win @ 3.5 (£75) - Made this in the days after he lost to Benneteau in Paris, hoping that it'd hit a peak but his performances in London and Doha ensured that wouldn't happen. Still with Federer, you're pretty much ensuring that he's going to make at least the second week unscathed, maybe get a test in the R16 or QF ... but 22 slam semis in a row shows that he's the man when it comes to slams and doesn't let you down. Of course, most of those 22 do not take into account his recent form and the fact he's lost to some bad match-ups like Davy and Sod (abeit exho), losing his home tournament in Basle, Del Potro again in London, Gulbis taking a set etc etc. But I still think little of that will matter when he arrives in Melbourne. His draw is nice, if he so much as dropped a set in the first week it'd be a worry because there's some dreadful hardcourters there. Getting to the crunch of the tournament against guys like Djokovic, Soderling and Davy, all in his half, I don't think he'll mind. Davy can still throw in too many bum games/sets in big tournaments to be considered a contender, and the fact that Davy and Verdy are scheduled to face in R4 could work against the winner, a 5 set match will hurt them if it got to that. Federer a pretty easy winner in the semis of the US against Djoko, might be tighter this time if they met but I still think Federer is a worthy fave for the tournament. Juan-Martin Del Potro to win @ 8 (£50) - This is the play I made in the hours leading up to his first exho in Kooyong this week, and his price has since risen after the injury scare, which i'm personally not too worried about. He's the 'form' player when it comes to big tournaments - winning the USO unexpectedly and reaching the WTF finals after being an injury concern - he has it between the ears to know how to peak for the big tournaments which is a great quality to have. His draw here isn't bad, he's landed in a quarter which is packed full to the brim of power players. The potential R4 match is against Cilic, where he'd be big fave and then maybe Roddick in the quarters. If, a pretty big if, he's fully fit this week, then I have him second favourite. He can beat anybody, he's proved that already, and he's not afraid to beat them in the big matches either. Yet to beat Murray on hardcourts though, so that potential semi would be tough to call, but I think it's a bit simplistic for people to be writing him off just because it's hard to win two slams in a row. Novak Djokovic to win @ 11 (£44.20) - Made before Djokovic won Paris, when his price went down to 5/1 in some places, since risen a bit on the back of failing to reach London semis and some lacklustre performances at Kooyong. Like Federer, his first week is routine, a cakewalk. His tournament gets interesting in the quarter-finals against Tsonga or Soderling ... but for Djokovic, the biggest issue is his scheduling, can he avoid the heat of the middle of the day, against the top players ? That won't be an issue come the semis and final when the matches are at night, so maybe we can look at Boredo in the last 16, in the heat of the day, with Boredo getting ball after ball after ball back and getting Djokovic out of his comfort-zone. If Djoko can negotiate that well, get to a semi against Federer, then he could repeat his AO08 win though Federer had illness issues then. I would gladly take a Federer vs Djokovic semi occuring as that'll put me in a pretty strong position. Marin Cilic to win @ 60 (£18) - Again, made during Paris before he made quarters there, and has since won Chennai (albeit unimpressively). I went for Cilic because he seemed to me to be the sort of player who could go on one of these runs out of nowhere, like a Verdasco, Tsonga, Gonzo etc. He has the tools to hurt a lot of players but, for me, yet to have the mental capacity to win regularly against the best, maybe proven best in the USO. This price is also with an eye to greening out if he goes sub 15s or so, that would need him to beat Del Potro in the last 16, but can I see him winning the tournament now ? No. Robin Soderling to win @ 65 (£23.12) - Like Cilic, this was made in November with an eye of Soderling making one of these random runs from nowhere. I perhaps didn't think enough at the time that he'd not enjoy the extreme conditions here, the heat in particular gets to Sod, he loves the calmer conditions, no wind or anything. There is a slight injury concern from Kooyong but like Del Potro, I think he withdrew for purely precautionary reasons to be ready here and he's turning into a big match player now. His draw is a peach up to the last 16, then a big face-off against Tsonga, who is also a little bit lacking in match-practice. Win that, face Djoko and maybe it's time to green out. I'm struggling to see him going all the way now. Decided against taking Murray because I don't think this is his time, I see his chances better at Wimbledon and the US, though i'd be delighted to be proved wrong. I will be looking at one or two matches later in the tournament to back him in matches, hopefully at good odds. I'm ruling out Nadal for reasons i've made obvious in other threads. Davy's price is too short, I admire whoever got him at the 150s a few weeks ago but can he beat Verdasco/Federer/Djokovic and then a slam final, all in a row ? Tough to see it. Roddick is one I thought about, but his price is a little shorter than i'd have liked, despite his fitness levels being very good and his win in Brisbane, I don't think his preparation all in all will be what he wants. Good luck everyone. |
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Oh noooooo. You bet on Cilic. I think Djoko is a good bet.
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Who you on genio ?
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I don't place too many outright bets throughout the season. I couldn't see much value in the outright odds but I can't see it being one outwith the status quo of hard court players - Federer, Djokovic, Murray or Del Po. Only long shot I would consider is Verdasco but he has a bit of a horror draw. Hates playing Davy and Fed.
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hi there, my bets for last week were mixed - good in womens, less good in mens
sydney - monfils win - pulled out beforehand new zealand melzer and chiudinelli - not good. womens - hobart i have quite a strong fancy for katerina bondarenko here with the biggest danger coming from the other bondarenko, alona, in the top half. - not bad, alona won at big odds sydney womens verdict - azarenka and dementieva - WON this week, i am struggling to contain my excitement. MENS i have placed 4 outright bets, which are as follows nadal 5.9 obviously badly out of form for some time, but there have been signs of a revival in DC and doha, and dav had to play his absolute best to beat him there. back in optimum conditions - high bouncing courts and heat and 5 sets, i think he has a good chance. what counts against him for me is murray as a potential qf opponent, as murray plays him well. del pot 8.8 if this guy is fit and ready then the 9.4 available now is enormous as this guy has the mental strength to go with his huge game. he is a complete player with a big match mentality. the doubt is his fitness. you need to be 100 per cent fit to win a slam. roddick 32 cant help thinking this guy has a good chance. i know lots disagree but i think rod has been unfortunate as he was playing superbly last year. fed pipped him at wimb obviously and then isner played completely out of his head in america. i honestly think isner would have beaten anyone playing like that. the two matches rod had against del pot in the american hard court season were amazing and i dont think there is much between them. he is fit, strong and healthy and amazingly motivated and i think he is a good price. verdasco 53 backed him after the draw as a speculative bet to come through the top half. so he needs to get through dav and fed, but that is why he is the price he is at. he is playing well, loves australia and can get on a roll. might, just might be good enough to beat dav and give fed a game. the draw wasnt kind to me, with my three big bets all in the same half. there is a strong argument for backing fed at 3.9 with a view to laying him off before the final. i think fed has a lovely draw. i dont fancy djok - my theory is he had such a hard time last year in terms of matches played it will take him a while to get going this year. i have backed murray to win the last 5 slams (bar paris) and if he wins this one i will trap my head in a vice. conclusion - roddick a big price with del pot and nad as savers. WOMENS the third quarter is hell on earth and in my opinion you simply cant play on anyone from that section, so for me, this is quite simple. bet 1 - Serena Williams 4.8 good draw, big tournament player, motivated after us open incident and return of the belgians. cannot see her being involved in later stages and i think she is very likely to contest the final, by when she can be traded. a perfrect bak to lay. dont buy her injury. bet 2 - Sharapova been watching maria (oo er) since she recovered from her injury and i beliecve she is ready and primed for a huge week. she retains her fighting spirit and her groundstrokes are intact, she just needs to get her serve up to scratch. she wasnt too far away towards the end of the year and with the close season to work on her serve and a good draw, i can see her going a long long long way. best of luck everyone - hold tight x |
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Nice one Nick, good luck this fortnight.
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you too mate. going to be a good one. i think the oz open is the best tournament of the year
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Murray 7.4
No one talking up Murray's chances seems quite strange, this seems to be his time of the year, cept he doesnt want to win DOHA anymore, this is the one! You'd have fancied him to make the final if it wasn't for Tsonga's run couple years ago. I'm not making excuses for him, he's had a bit of bad luck in grandslams always running into players having their break-through tournament, like Verdasco last year. This year the pressure is kind of off, no one is tipping him, they're looking at Fed, Nadal, Djokovic, Denko, Del Potro. He's got nothing to lose, he's not got past the 4th round is what I'm hearing alot of. His draw is decent despite being seeded 5th, Monfils in a fourth round is pretty good, he could have had Verdasco, Davydenko, in form players and hitting winners left right and centre( we'll let Federer and Nole deal with those). Monfils has a few injury concerns and has been delayed by the weather, all this should aid Murray's cause. I also think Murray is pretty good in night conditions and I think he'll get his fair share of night matches this week against Rafa and Del Potro. I'm trying not look beyond Nadal, it will be his biggest match and I think Rafa will be looking at Murray and thinking the same. Nadal should hold no fears for Murray he's beaten him before and this time the schedule shouldn't hinder him the way it did in the US Open :( Murray had a wake up call against Robredo last week to keep him on his toes, maybe its was a good loss to get out of the way before stringing 7 of the best together. He does come unstuck by playing the player and not the ball alot and just finds it difficut to raise his game when he's up against an in form aggressive player. But he hasn't really got a true hard court shot maker til a possible meeting with Del Potro in the semis and who knows what can happen from now til then, Del boy's got a few niggles a tough possible second round match against Blake and he's already dropped a set against Michael Russell, journeyman pro. Maybe Murray will get lucky this time and the draw will open up for him, perhaps the other half will knock 10 bells out of eachother. I hate to put the jinx on him but can't see how he's going to stuff this up atleast until he faces Nadal. |
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Did you put a pound on Carsten Ball as a saver JB?
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Added my final outright bet :
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win Australian Open @ 46 (£16) Sod going out has left this section of the draw pretty open. Tsonga was one of the players that impressed me in R1, the doubts I had about his fitness look to be pretty much quashed and he was moving absolutely fine, beating a potentially tricky opponent with ease. He's obviously got great memories from here in the last couple of years and loves playing in front of these crowds. Should beat Dent tonight who I expect to hand Tsonga a lot of freebies, and then you're looking at a likely match against Haas, who hasn't shown any form since the grasscourt season, and then a R4 match against what i'd call cannon-fodder. Should he reach quarters then he's likely to be up against Djoko, and I re-assert what I said earlier about him, he could come up unstuck if he's untested by his cakewalk draw. Tsonga has a very good record against Djoko as well. I'm pretty surprised that he is priced in the same ballpark as Verdasco, this quarter is much weaker and one that Tsonga should be about a 2.6 shot to get out of imo, then anything's possible if he's still fit come the latter stages. |
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Added my final outright bet :
Forget that, this is my final play ... it's Muzza-time, folks ! : Andy Murray to win Australian Open @ 5.2 (£68) Admittedly a bit late with this but just have to make it. He's playing real smooth this fortnight, not just struggling past these cannon fodder like he's done in the past but there's a ruthless streak in there now. Don't mind if he plays in heat, night, whatever. I'm confident he's beating Nadal in the next round, Murray's a smart enough player to know when to be the dictator and when not to be. I'm sure a lot of people will naively look at how he played against Isner, put 2 and 2 together and make 5, thinking Nadal will win everything with Murray 10 metres behind the baseline. For those that think that, i'll send you a link to youtube of their USO meeting. Beyond that ... a patched up Delpo, inconsistent Cilic, Roddick who will have to play out of his skin again or Gonzo ... all players that a clued-in Murray is good enough to beat if he's learnt his lessons of the past and I think he has. |
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rather worryingly Cilic looks like a BYE
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so jasonbourne worst result for you is dav or nadal yeah? its a risk not having dav onside
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thank feck for the second set
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Roddick loved that match, semi final march
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Well bar nadal, everyone else in his half are playing eachother to a stand still. Murray the most clinical.
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Why is Cilic looking like a BYE?
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Didn't show up for the first set
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Rod's hanging in there, looks a decent play for nick now Delpo's out. Hopefully i'm gona have interest in every quarter-final.
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Pathetic. Backed everyone except Nadal me think.
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Davy will win the AO imvho
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he he he marin cilic ;)
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i'm not complaining !
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nor me....just like to say i told everyone ;)
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think he can do rod again ?
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ask me tomorrow lol....enjoyed that roddick gonzo match....was dissapointed gonzo didnt win....
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had to go out before the start, caught the last set, gonzo never in it really ... what happened at end of 4th ?
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