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JCF - has he won this tourn before ?
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Finalist 2 years ago actually. Admittedly, that is a beautiful draw.
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no
On seeing the draw myself, took the 6/1 yesterday. |
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whats the deal with your anteposts jb, will u stick em up as u go? ive been bangin into the oz open market on and off since november.
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I'll stick them up the day(s) before the tournament starts. Of course I can be accused of aftertiming in some cases but in my four AP picks for the Aussie, two prices have gone down a lot and two have gone up a lot ...
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also on at 6/1 (3/1 to make the final is most certainly value)
plays well on this this surface robredo got couple of tough ones, bottom half just a mine field |
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any thoughts on ferrer in bottom 1/2 of draw?
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witthout checkn jcf started last year shiitfully didnt he? he'd be smart to come out crackn this year because he's got a fair bit to defend mid year.
or conversely he's had a nice relaxin off season now his rankn gets him into any piisspot tourney he fancies with a niceish draw for a bit |
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Bottom half looks horrible to me. I would have been interested in Nalbandian but can't say his price is all that appealing and coupled with his draw, will he want to peak before the slam as well ? Ok he did last year, but as this is a return after longterm injury, I think he'd rather 'impress' the big stage than this tournament and be 100% there.
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Yeah Ferrero does look good now you mention it. Never looked at the draw.
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I would hope that he tried a bit!
The main plus would be the change in racquet during last season - seemed to help him no end (esp with power), hopefully will carry his form through. |
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yeah ive not exactly mugged the market either, ive had 2 big prices come in but the bulk of my bets wouldve been best saved till now.
absense doesnt make the price get stronger does it ! :D |
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reckons hes motivated
but impossible to pick a winner here..no form etc etc, so best just taking the value and the only guy whos already in the semi final robredo - greul is tough, isner/monaco not great matchups for him nalbandian/kohlschreiber - fitness questionmarks/no form ferrer - reckon he'll make final but chardy always dangerous almagro - hes almagro |
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looks like Cilic will come in. In a way that is a good start to this thread. Good work JB.
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good tipping -:)
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berdych has a pretty easy draw in sydney.....
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nice thread this keep it up jas..
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Berdych sub 5/1 is like playing russian roulette though.
2nd Quarter looks like someone at a price could come through - Stan just finished playing in Chennai, Andreev has looked awful so far. Top section, will Monfils be bothered, if not, Gasquet has a chance at a price. |
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Love the thread Jason and well done on Cilic. Here's my weeks picks. More than usual but am open to any opinions. Not trying to take away from Jason's work just looking to get opinions.
Heinekien I know these selections will get abuse but here we go. Firstly i just joined sj and have free bets to use up. On seeing nalbandian at 20/1 i couldnt help but think this is perfect. If he shows any of his best he has enough to win this so he got some of my free money. Although I think if he makes it past kohli he will go all the way, I still backed him ew as 10/1 on nalby to make final of a poor field is crazy. Then again he maybe extremely rusty but at 20/1 worth a nibble. Further Kohli will have to improve from what he was last week JCF in the other part of the draw at 5/1 (pp) ew was the other bet for the above as he should make the semi final with a not too daunting draw. Sydney The fav is Monfils but can't touch him due to his mental frailties in the final. At around 3/1 can't be risked. This might seem a contadiction after what said about monfils (and despite the bashing of Tomas berdych already) but my selection is berdych. Ii was impressed with him this week and am prepared to give him a go. As it is one week before a slam i am always nervous and with a player such as berdyad his mind this is a concern with where his mind is. At 9/2 above 2/1 to make the final i am prepared to give him a go. The only problem i forsee in his 1/2 if berdych continues his form is hewitt or querrey on form (baggy would have been a thought but after his performance). I will put a small saver on querrey in case he improves dramatically from last week. Was considering ball due to his crazy price on sj but might give it a miss as i fancy trying someone in the other 1/2. Benneteau is my man here with a speculative go. For quick reading Nalby 1pt ew (free bet) 20/1 sj FCF 2pt ew 5/1pp querrey 1pt ew 16/1 skybet Berdych 1.5ew 11/2 skybet Benneteau 0.5 ew 40/1 sj Total 12pt (2pt free bet) |
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No worries at all Boss man, this thread was made with a view to having opinions from as many people as possible. Yours are welcomed.
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Thanks Jason and what do you think. Meant to say JCF obviously instead of FCF. Now that I look at it i think i might increase berdych's stake and reduce querrey's stake as simply think if berdych plays well he will at least be in the final where he will be a relatively stong fav against anyone bar monfils. Queerey was only meant as a saver and i wouldn't be prepared to waste 2 pts on him.
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i missed this thread and started my own, sorry.
my views are as follows sydney monfils tanked against step last week and there has to be a slight doubt about him starting the tournament. but if he does, his draw is so good and the top half so weak that it's hard not to see him in the final. the bottom half is much tougher with berdych, querrey, hewitt and a couple of strong outsiders like ball, fish and korolev, but whoever gets through to the final should still start the outsider to beat monfils. verdict - 3 pts win - monfils win new zealand a very weak affair and i will be looking to take on the favourites robredo, ferrer and ferrero. robredo played well in beating murray last week but cannot be relied on t win a hard court tournament whilst ferrero's form trailed off badly towards the end of 09, and ferrer is alwyas beatable on the surface. for two speculative bets i would look to jurgen melzer, who can be hot on hs day and is more than capable of a long run, and as an outsider, chiudinelli, who i rate very highly and think may have a very good year. the problem is the first round draw against bellucci, who is another young buck with the game to get results on hard as well as clay, so i suggest waiting to see if chiud gets through bellucci and then playing at prob around 20s. verdict - 1 pt win melzer chiudinelli - 0.5 pt win - he was 66s on skybet - i was informed by an informed forumite, but they would only give me 25 quid womens - hobart i have quite a strong fancy for katerina bondarenko here with a good draw now she got past safarova. there are few dangers in her half as i'm not too worried about wozniak or peer, and i can see the biggest danger coming from the other bondarenko, alona, in the top half. verdict - 4 pts win - k bondarenko. again, 16s at skybet - only 50 quid available sydney womens almost all the players are there bar the belgians, so this is extremely hard to call with very little early season form to go on. i would side speculatively with two players who have the ability to win the tournament, but to small stakes. azarenka and dementieva verdict - 1 point win, azarenka and dementieva oz open will be on nadal, del pot and rod for mens, draw permitting. want del pot and nad in opposite halves. keep changing my mind on murray but going to leave alone |
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Srichaphan or Ancic? 10 Jan 18:28
My blog was in profit on every sport.. if thats a failure then I suggest you revise your betting theories. :^0 cant wait for another successfull blog lol |
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Where's that from Harry ?
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in running thread ravens v pats...im having his life...read from the start....he is relying on his stats in a sport he knows nothing about and is being punished lol
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Week 1: -£20.90
The Youzhny bet, in hindsight, was a big error. Backing against the top 3 in that market was a bit of a slack tactic and I should have given Stakhovsky more respect than I did. Ditto Baghdatis as well, i'm not too disappointed with that play because if he'd beaten Berdych, he'd have had a great chance to make the semis and then maybe a chance to green out but as it goes, he was outclassed by an in-form Berdych and they will happen, just have to get on with it. The Nadal play, albeit late, was still a decent value play (price moved from about 3 into 2.3 after 3 matches) and he went odds on a match later, but like I said in the write-up, needed him to play Federer for the bet to have a solid chance. As it happens, I kept the faith in Nadal and he was playing so well, I didn't fancy the hedge in the final, 2 match points on serve ... that has to be one of the first times Nadal has failed to take MPs and lose a match so I just got dealt a bad card there. As it happens, Cilic rounded off the week well. Looked in a lot of trouble @ 6-7 0-1* down against Pujol in R2 but a common theme then grew, always starting slowly and regularly had to break back his opponents just to stay in sets and he finished off the tournament well like I hoped he would with his big match experience. Overall, an average start, just pleased to take one winner and some confidence if nothing else. Onto week 2 ... Auckland - First looking at this field and you may think it's a claycourt tournament, top 4 seeds all Spaniards with Monaco and Montanes also seeded. Nalbandian is returning but he's landed in what looks like the tougher bottom half. Robredo is coming in off a morale-boosting win over Murray in Perth but does that suddenly mean he's capable of winning a hardcourt tournament, even of this standard ? Not convinced, though he's got a kind draw. Of the favourites, you have to like Ferrero's route the most. Bye, Qualifier, NZ WC/Quali/Montanes, Robredo (whom he holds a 3-2 HTH with). He's also a former finalist in this tournament and in the last 12 months, has shown more than enough to suggest he wants to get back to the top of the game for one last hurrah. Of the outsiders, I did like Chardy's 28s. The loss to Falla in R1 last week was less than encouraging but he didn't appear to mull on that, got his game back together and won the doubles tournament. I'm very cautious to take that as a form guide into this week but it's encouraging that his mental game will be in a good place right now and he'll have confidence. He won his first ATP tournament last year and is currently 1 place off his highest career ranking. A decent run in Sydney last year suggests he takes these pre-slam tournaments pretty seriously to get his form going for the big one. The draw is tricky but his price is just about good enough for me to take on with a small stake and we'll see how he goes. He has got hardcourt game if he's in the mood, fingers crossed he fancies a fight here. Verdict - Jeremy Chardy @ 28/1 (£15) Sydney - A bit more quality in this field but again, very open. Monfils top seed but on his showing last week against Stepanek, he's too volatile to back as a fav at the moment, just can' take him at short odds when some matches he clearly doesn't give a sh*t to win. Wawrinka and Berdych are on good form from last week, but like Monfils, backing Berdych at these odds with his inconsistency doesn't fill me with confidence, and Wawrinka seemed to have one or two niggling injury problems in Chennai, he's probably satisfied with his pre-slam work. With my doubts over Wawrinka, i'm going to take a fair priced outsider on, like in Auckland. I'm not going to break my bank either way, the big stuff next week is hopefully where the big money's going to be won. I'm looking at Wawrinka's section of the sraw for decent outsiders and i'm drawn towards Leo Mayer. His end of 09 form was pretty dreadful but a very solid qualifying campaign this weekend (dropping only one set against Bogmolov who was serving for a win over Stepanek last week) has earnt him a round-one match against Igor Andreev. He is in shocking form, only 8 games against Murray/Golubev in Perth and ended 09 with a loss against ... Leo Mayer. He did reach 4 quarter-finals last season, including a semi in LA (where I backed him @ 100/1 before the off, so he's already given me some +ve moments before) and, for me, plays his best stuff on faster courts. Sydney isn't exactly a carpet surface but the past winners (Nalbandian, Blake, Tursunov recently) are all players who like the faster conditions too. Again i'm going to go in small, just don't see anything that really catches the eye to go with any genuine confidence. Verdict - Leonardo Mayer @ 66/1 (£15) |
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good to hear your views jason. on reflection, i've realised that the value in the outright for auckland lies in backing the winner of the eagerly awaited king turner vs jose (rubin) statham. sometimes one just has an epiphany - its there, we just need to see it...
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Shame there has to be a winner in that match really.
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they are both winners to me
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Monfils has withdrawn from Sydney tonight, doubt for Aussie Open too :(
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its his own fault. I don't feel much sympathy for him. Puts his body under too much unnecessary pressure. Might be a blessing in disguise for him. Looks like all the French wild cards are injured though. Tsonga Simon Monfils...er Grosjean...
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maybe thats a bit harsh. I am contemplating the worlds longest sleep after this mayer - andreev mug fest.
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Thomaz Bellucci E/W £25 @ 20/1 SJ
He's playing very solid tennis, confidence up, great potential... tough match against Kohl up but if he gets beyond that the seeds in his half are clay courters, Almagro/ Ferrer. Bonne chance :) |
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How are you doing JB? I can't be bothered to read all the thread. Are you keeping above water?
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Average start Jimmy. Starting off slowly as I always do at the beginning of the year given that it's harder to gauge any sort of form or whatever.
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DUTCHING DOUBLES
SAFINA/PENNETTA ZHENG/PEER |
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Puts his body under too much unnecessary pressure. Might be a blessing in disguise for him
I was hoping Rasheed would be drumming some sense into this guy and maybe it's starting to rub off on Gael, would have been absolutely pointless playing in Sydney this week given his body is so patched up at the moment. If he has any ambition of winning the big tournaments, he shouldn't have even considered Sydney. |
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What do you guys think of Ceavas' chances?
Mayer next who struggled against Igor. Then probably a tired Wawa. Then a metal lapse prone Gasquet. Then he's in the final. The odds just seem ridiculously high. |
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Well i'm hoping Mayer has now had the kick up the backside he needed last night. It seems that the courts are playing a lot slower than I had imagined and that will help Cuevas a bit, i'd call their match about 50/50 but the winner has a fair chance of going far imo.
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I think Cuevas might win. Courts are slow, energy sapping courts and Mayer has played 4 matches back to back a few of which have gone the distance. If it was purely a tennis contest then I would back Mayer but how fit is Mayer? Without pictures it is impossible to get a read.
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