Outright Thread 2010

First week in Brisbane, Doha and Chennai. Markets still taking some time to sort themselves out but there's one or two I like in Brisbane. Doha looks to be between 3 or 4 and Chennai, there are two players comfortably ahead of the field. So the value will be in Brisbane, where i'm liking the chances of Roddick, Baghdatis and Blake at the moment, will decide tomorrow.

Quite like Rod's draw though. Luczak plays most of his stuff on clay, Ball hasn't really shown anything since the summer and he really does own Melzer. Of course it's a bigger risk than usual considering he's coming in 'cold' but from what i've read over the winter, it seems his preparation has gone quite well.

Hard to ignore Stepanek's draw too, pretty kind early on. Extra impetous to defend his title as well perhaps.

dont bet roddick in round1, not convinced hes serious abt this tourney yet

FFS

oh no!

roddick may well tank, over his anger at the treatment of maylasian boat people by the australian government... apparently

dont mention the gasman jason, he shouldn't be mentioned on any 'outright' thread

rofl genio, outright imbecile thread maybe

lol
Can't see him winning the tournament but he has a fairly decent early-year record - two semis last year and in 2007, also something to prove. Could be a handful but it'll take something for me to take him outright.

you never know jason, maybe he'll be motivated to really put his all in to this year, i'd love to see it, he's just one you lose patience with. gd luck with the thread, i'll follow with interest

Rishis School for Thick

First round opponent Peter Luczak should pose few problems, while potential second round foes Mischa Zverev and Carsten Ball are very much hit and miss.

Back the American at 5-2 but have a saver on the enigmatic Ball at a whopping 500-1.

wtf :^0

Usually do ok on the outrights myself too, famous last words - though I prefer double figure prices in the smaller tournys that pushing up on small prices.

3rd Quarter looks the toughest to call.
Backed Chardy (only small @ 25/1) - if over his back issue late in Dec (which he retired a set up in an exp - not serious was reported).
Can't back e/w, as would be very afraid of Monfils in the SF if they both made it.
Roddick makes the book and have to take him on at the prices - stupidly mulling over Berdych (as I the draw could open up for him nicely - that 2nd R match could be tough mind!) - 10/1 hardly sets the pulse racing though.

Week 1 :

Doha - The highest quality field without a doubt. Nadal has started his year well with two wins but I still see enough vulnerabilities from him on hardcourts to sway me away from taking his price on, despite a good draw. Same with Federer, good draw, but he hasn't won a tournament at this level for a long time and if he meets Nadal in the final, he has a few too many psychological scars there in previous matches. Don't know what to expect from Davy, finished last season well but didn't look too interested in AD. I like Youzhny's draw, a player on the rise from the end of last season and has a history of starting years well which I like to take into account. If he's still got the hunger to get back to the top ten, then this will be a good starting point for him, in Nadal's half whom he's beaten before and has the game to cause a few problems. I'll take his price which is better than I thought and consider greening if the chance comes along next weekend.

Verdict - Mikhail Youzhny to win @ 25/1 (£20)

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Chennai - First look at this field and you have to assume that the top 2 seeds will be looking to reach the final with little issues. Soderling and Cilic are the only top 20 players in the tournament and both had good 2009s. Cilic is defending champion andI I have to say i'm shading towards his price here. First up for him is Kunitsyn, who is a pretty nice opponent for Cilic, who struggles more against retrievers and players who keep giving him the extra shot - Kunitsyn is nothing more than a solid baseliner with no extraordinary shots, and had a pretty miserable indoor season in Russia at the end of 09. After that, he's seeded to face Greul and Tipsarevic, perhaps the latter is the biggest hurdle to his chances of reaching the final but a Cilic in decent form should have little problem. I'd see the potential Sod vs Cilic final as being pretty tough to call, but Sod's price is too short at the moment to take with any genuine confidence.

Verdict - Marin Cilic @ 3.1 (£20)

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Brisbane - This tournament seems to be the most open. Players like Roddick, Querrey, Fish are coming back from injury, Monfils has had his problems over the winter, Gasquet has only just received final clearance from his drug ban ... I just can't take the risk on Roddick, too many doubts about him. It's very hard to see him failing to reach the last eight but I think the fact he's played so little since October will do him very few favours, though i'd still have him as marginal fav over Stepanek, who also has a good draw. I'm going to back Marcos Baghdatis. His form since the summer, where his ranking dropped outside of the top 150 for the first time in 5 years, he's been a different player. Won in Tashkent, St Remy and Vancouver, took Nadal to 3 sets in Beijing without even playing that well and the icing on the cake was winning Stockholm. He's clearly regained the hunger to fight again, much like Youzhny. His record in Australia is of course good, last year he didn't do an awful lot in these 250s but that was mainly due to injuries, he did beat Mardy Fish in three easy sets in Melbourne, his opponent in R1 here, and should he win that, it gives him a solid test against Berdych who I despise backing in the outrights given my history there, but should he win that, I see no reason why he can't make the semis and against a less-than-match-sharp Roddick as the worst case scenario, he's got a chance of going all the way. The price isn't as good as i'd have liked but in these tournaments, you've usually got no form to bet off given the 6-8 week break.

Verdict - Marcos Baghdatis @ 16/1 (£20)

not taking youzhny ew???...pretty certain to either be facing federer or davydenko in a final, where he would obviously be an underdog, could be a decent sized one too

also has stakhovsky 1st round who will be tough...like youzhny a good all round player who should come on this season and get some good results, not sure how he'll match up there in 1st match of the season

baghy looks a solid choice in an open field and cilic should make the final but dont like backing this week without any form

youzhny does go well on this surface though, but yeah ew where a player is pretty certain to be a dog in a final has to make it better value

im interested in chardy this week to see how he does with a decent draw, 22/1...it's a bit too open though

soderling/cilic of course heavy faves to meet in a final, but wawrinka cant be dismissed of course...poor field clearly

doha tough again, and a bit like chennai, nadal big at 9/4 with SJ but surface not ideal and hard to get on with them, well cant but would leave that one alone completely personally

Your lucidity is wasted on here Jason...ffs

Pretty woeful from Chardy, but pushers can be so hard to beat.