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el genio
09 Nov 09 22:45
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Date Joined: 02 Mar 08
| Topic/replies: 4,637 | Blogger: el genio's blog
el genio has been making an inclusive database for tennis. players strengths/weaknesses, a mentality barometer, motivations, ability to handle court surface, match up comparisons.

has anybody else taken such an approach? i think it may be of some benefit next season.
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Report mophead November 9, 2009 10:50 PM GMT
the one big thing ive learned fronm this season was not laying enough of the WTA players at very low odds esp after winnin 1st set-i was doin the opposite alot of the time -more layin at short odds from me esp when the like of azerenka ,rad,kutz and mad vera,bartoli are playin to namer a few ,nothin really much more i can do but i still prefer the later rounds of the tournaments
Report el genio November 9, 2009 10:52 PM GMT
i said tennis mophead
Report mophead November 9, 2009 10:54 PM GMT
if you lookin at makin a list out of chokers it would be endless ,thats the thing about it -although some choke 1 day and the next they good under pressure -its useful knowing who they are all the same
Report mophead November 9, 2009 10:55 PM GMT
yes WTA is tennis mate and dont tell me ya dont back in WTA -just as easy make a few quid than in ATP chief
Report el genio November 9, 2009 10:55 PM GMT
you can make cross sections of mentality and motivation
Report mophead November 9, 2009 10:57 PM GMT
na your gettin too deep into it now and only confusin yourself -your takin a real statistical approach to teh game
Report el genio November 9, 2009 10:59 PM GMT
i think it may have some benefit. it would take an intelligent mind to work this. i think statistics are only part of the solution but my barometers are opinionated. I will trial run this at the start of the season.
Report mophead November 9, 2009 11:00 PM GMT
what have you in mind ?????thee as you know have been alot of players crap at the start of the year and great at the end etc
Report el genio November 9, 2009 11:02 PM GMT
touche. i think it may still have some benefit though. the start of the season is possibly a different beast. but i think it will still be useful.
Report HARRY22 November 9, 2009 11:02 PM GMT
i think jaap has...but thats all in his head lol
Report mophead November 9, 2009 11:04 PM GMT
so ya dont go near the WTA ?????
Report el genio November 9, 2009 11:05 PM GMT
very rarely. i think there are some good bets in it. but too much of a gamble for my liking
Report HARRY22 November 9, 2009 11:05 PM GMT
arofed..he is a stats man....not seen him for a while on here
Report el genio November 9, 2009 11:06 PM GMT
this is only a partial statistical approach
Report mophead November 9, 2009 11:09 PM GMT
tennis beting is simple if ya take the rigt approach -

1.one rule is keep away from tight matches
2 keep a record of the players who only ever o so far in tours (works well in WTA ) ive a good list of players who never get past the sec round -there always an easy lay if they get to that stage
Report el genio November 9, 2009 11:10 PM GMT
ffs
Report mophead November 9, 2009 11:12 PM GMT
keep away for mischa the h clown zverez ,at least i cant lose any more money on safin nexy year but will be laying his sister a plenty
Report el genio November 9, 2009 11:13 PM GMT
do you live in a bubble?
Report mophead November 9, 2009 11:16 PM GMT
This function applies the Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG). It calculates the number of trials N necessary for an event of probability p to appear with the degree of certainty DC.
For example, how many coin tosses are necessary to get at least one 'heads' (p = 1/2) with a degree of certainty equal to 99%? Answer: 7 tosses.

We may also call it the Fundamental Formula of The Universe or the Formula of The Everything.


log(1 - DC)

N = ----------------

log(1 - p)
Report McChicken_Sandwich November 9, 2009 11:20 PM GMT
lol
Report el genio November 9, 2009 11:35 PM GMT
history will absolve me - el genio 10/11/09
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